Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect E-Verify to be expanded Before 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has exhibited a completely flat, sideways trend, with the price holding steady at a 31.0% probability since its inception. There have been no significant price movements, spikes, or drops. The price of 31.0% serves as the only trading level, meaning no distinct support or resistance points have been established. Trading volume is extremely low, with only about 15 contracts traded in total. This activity occurred entirely at the beginning of the market's history, with no subsequent volume recorded, suggesting a lack of market participation and conviction after the initial positions were taken.
The market appears to have opened in May 2026, coinciding with the introduction of the Mandatory E-Verify Act of 2026. The initial and current price of 31.0% likely reflects traders' assessment of the bill's chances of passing before 2027. The low probability suggests that while the bill's introduction is a notable event, the market does not view its passage within the required timeframe as likely. The complete lack of subsequent price movement or trading volume indicates that no new information or developments have emerged to alter this initial sentiment. The chart suggests a static market sentiment, reflecting low confidence in the expansion of E-Verify in 2026, with traders taking a "wait-and-see" approach.
  • ICE and USCIS may expand E-Verify via existing administrative powers.
  • Senator Britt introduced the Mandatory E-Verify Act of 2026.
  • The Trump administration's E-Verify stance appears inconsistent, prioritizing broad enforcement.
  • Britt's Act faces significant legislative hurdles and widespread industry opposition.
  • State-level E-Verify expansion, including new mandates, is actively occurring in 2026.
  • I-9 audits for FY2025-2026 suggest intensified enforcement and reform pressure.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2027 31.0% 31.0% Donald Trump's potential presidency may lead to E-Verify expansion before 2027.

Current Context

In May 2026, a new federal bill was introduced to mandate E-Verify nationwide. Senator Katie Britt (R-AL) announced the Mandatory E-Verify Act of 2026, which seeks to make the E-Verify system compulsory for all U.S. employers, regardless of their business size [1][2]. This proposal comes as the compliance landscape is currently fragmented, with more than 25 states having implemented various forms of E-Verify mandates for public employers, contractors, or specific private industries as of May 2026 [3].
Federal enforcement of employment eligibility has intensified, but support for a universal E-Verify system remains inconsistent. In 2026, federal enforcement of I-9 and employment eligibility compliance has seen an uptick, marked by enhanced investigative powers for USCIS and more frequent workplace inspections by ICE, even without a comprehensive national mandate for all private employers [4][3]. Despite the Trump administration's emphasis on mass deportations and stricter immigration enforcement, its historical and current support for a universal, mandatory federal E-Verify system has been inconsistent due to concerns regarding labor shortages, especially in sectors like agriculture [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1New Senate bill aims to ensure all US jobs go to legal workerswashingtonexaminer.com
  2. 2Mandatory E-Verify Act of 2026: A Bill to Eliminate the Magnet for Illegal Immigration and Protect American Workersus.headtopics.com
  3. 3E-Verify Compliance 2026: New Rules, State Mandates & Requirementsi-9intelligence.com
  4. 4ICE Tightens Grip on I-9 Compliance, Exposing Companies to Significantly Increased Fines and Leaving No Room for Error | Womble Bond Dickinson - JDSuprajdsupra.com
  5. 5Trump's stance on E-Verify checks shifting over time | TechTargettechtarget.com
  6. 6Article: Employment Verification: The Next Front f.. | migrationpolicy.orgmigrationpolicy.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Here's a summary of the contract rules:

1. YES resolution: A "Yes" resolution is triggered if the federal government, through executive action or law, mandates that non-governmental employers (excluding federal contractors/vendors) use E-Verify for at least one employee (excluding federal employees/OPT graduates) before 2027. Sources for confirmation include the Library of Congress, White House, and The New York Times. 2. NO resolution: A "No" resolution will occur if the specified E-Verify expansion, as defined by the payout criterion, does not take place by the end of 2026. 3. Key dates/deadlines: The market opened on January 30, 2026, at 10:00 am EST. It will close early if the event occurs, or by January 1, 2027, at 10:00 am EST if the event does not happen. 4. Special settlement conditions: The market may close early if the expansion event occurs before its final deadline. Trading is prohibited for individuals employed by the specified source agencies or those holding material, non-public information related to the event.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before 2027 $0.35 $0.69 31%

Market Discussion

Senator Katie Britt has introduced legislation aiming to make E-Verify compulsory for all U.S. employers, aligning with former President Donald Trump's consistent advocacy for a national mandate and stronger immigration enforcement [1]. Over 25 states already mandate E-Verify for various employers or contractors, with Indiana's FAIRNESS Act making it mandatory for all employers effective July 1, 2026, and U.S.

Sources (1)
  1. 1senate.govbritt.senate.gov

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 73 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score73Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
42Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

1 contract

Before 202742
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Before 2027—
No trading in 5h

No trades in the last 5h — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Before 2027100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
31High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 40 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 8.1c slippage (~26% of a 31c contract)

$1,000 order: 52.8c slippage (~170% of a 31c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Before 202740Market scoreLiquidity42Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 40
Liquidity
42 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No trading in 5h

No trades in the last 5h — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. Through what specific regulatory changes could ICE and USCIS expand E-Verify requirements in 2026 without new legislation from Congress?

E-Verify Expansion TimelineExpected in 2026 [1]
Enforcement ShiftReclassification of I-9 failures as substantive violations in 2026 [2][3][4]
Regulatory ActivityDHS/USCIS conducting a "Revision of a Currently Approved Collection" for E-Verify as of May 2026 [5]
Agencies can expand E-Verify requirements through existing administrative powers. ICE and USCIS possess the administrative authority to broaden E-Verify requirements in 2026, circumventing the need for new congressional legislation [6][7]. This capacity stems from established mechanisms such as agency-level rulemaking, executive orders, and modifications in enforcement policy [6][7]. The current administration has already leveraged these tools to prioritize employment authorization vetting, effectively bypassing the need for new legislative action [6][7].
Increased worksite enforcement and I-9 changes boost E-Verify pressure. In 2026, the administration has intensified ICE worksite enforcement activities, notably by reclassifying I-9 process-based failures as substantive violations [2][3][4]. This includes specific instances where employers fail to enroll in E-Verify when utilizing remote examination procedures [2][3][4]. Such changes significantly heighten employer risk and incentivize the adoption of E-Verify [2][3][4]. Furthermore, DHS/USCIS is actively engaged in a "Revision of a Currently Approved Collection" for the E-Verify Program as of May 2026, signaling ongoing regulatory management and potential adjustments to the program's requirements [5].
Sources (7)
  1. 11.1 Background and Overview | E-Verifye-verify.gov
  2. 2ICE Changes Form I-9 Inspections and Reclassifies Certain Errors | Bodman - JDSuprajdsupra.com
  3. 3ICE I-9 Rule Changes 2026 Increase Employer Penalty Riskclarkhill.com
  4. 4Employer Alert: ICE Worksite Enforcement Is Poised To Increase Dramatically - Employers Should Audit Their I-9s NOW! - General Immigration - United Statesmondaq.com
  5. 5Federal Register :: Agency Information Collection Activities; Revision of a Currently Approved Collection: E-Verify Programfederalregister.gov
  6. 6Restoring Integrity to America's Financial Systemwhitehouse.gov
  7. 7https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-10-30/pdf/2025-19702.pdfgovinfo.gov

6. What recent statements and policy positions from the Trump administration and key industry lobbies (e.g., agriculture, construction) in 2026 indicate their current stance on a universal E-Verify mandate?

Trump Admin E-Verify StanceInconsistent, favored broader immigration enforcement over federal mandates [1][2]
2026 Industry OppositionAgriculture and construction lobbies oppose mandatory E-Verify without comprehensive reforms [3][4][5]
2026 Federal E-Verify LegislationBills like S.1151 introduced but no significant progression; focus on technical updates [6][7]
The Trump administration's E-Verify stance remains inconsistent, prioritizing broader immigration enforcement. In 2026, the administration has often focused on initiatives like mass deportation rather than a universal E-Verify mandate, largely due to concerns about potential labor shortages in crucial sectors such as agriculture and construction [1][2]. Concurrently, key industry lobbies, particularly within the agriculture and construction sectors, continue to voice strong opposition to mandatory E-Verify. Their resistance is conditional on the implementation of comprehensive immigration reforms, including the establishment of viable guest worker programs and clear legal pathways for existing undocumented employees [3][4][5].
E-Verify's legislative future in 2026 is fragmented, with limited federal progress. The legislative landscape at the state level shows a varied approach, with some Republican-led states, like Ohio, enacting targeted E-Verify mandates for specific industries, such as nonresidential construction [8][9][10]. However, efforts to impose broader statewide mandates continue to encounter significant pushback from business interests, citing concerns about economic impact and labor supply [8][4][5]. Federally, while proposals aimed at expanding E-Verify, such as the Accountability Through Electronic Verification Act (S.1151), have been introduced, they have not advanced substantially in 2026. Current federal efforts are primarily concentrated on technical software updates, like ICA v32, and supporting state-level policy experimentation [6][7].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Trump deportation push largely ignores major tool—E-Verify system that employers can use to check workersfortune.com
  2. 2Trump's stance on E-Verify checks shifting over time | TechTargettechtarget.com
  3. 3E-Verify | American Farm Bureau Federationfb.org
  4. 4E-Verify Requirements Draw Business Pushback in Some Republican Statesagriculture.com
  5. 5Red States Pull Back on Broad E-Verify Bills Amid Economic Concernsgoverning.com
  6. 6Staying Up to Date on Federal Contractor Minimum Wagegovdocs.com
  7. 7E-Verify Updates for Employers: 2025-2026 Changes to Enactnews.verifiedcredentials.com
  8. 8E-Verify requirements draw business pushback in some Republican states • Statelinestateline.org
  9. 9Ohio E-Verify Law Set to Impose New Requirements on Construction Industry (US) | Employment Law Worldviewemploymentlawworldview.com
  10. 10Ohio Imposes New Mandatory E-Verify Requirements on Nonresidential Construction Employers | Benesch - JDSuprajdsupra.com

7. How does Senator Britt's proposed Mandatory E-Verify Act of 2026 compare to the most stringent existing state-level mandates, such as those in Florida and Arizona?

Scope of Britt's Proposed ActAll U.S. employers, regardless of business size [1][2][3]
Florida SB 1718 ScopePrivate employers with 25 or more employees [4][5][6]
Arizona LAWA ScopeAll Arizona employers [7][8][9]
Senator Britt's proposed Mandatory E-Verify Act of 2026 aims to establish a nationwide requirement for all U.S. employers, irrespective of business size [1][2][3][4]. This proposal is designed to be more comprehensive than existing state-level mandates, as it would eliminate thresholds such as Florida's 25-employee minimum and extend E-Verify to virtually all employers across the country. Furthermore, the act would introduce increased civil and criminal penalties, strengthen E-Verify fraud-prevention measures, and include a rule to prevent states from hindering E-Verify usage [1][2][3][4][7].
State E-Verify laws vary in scope and enforcement mechanisms. Florida's SB 1718, effective July 1, 2023, mandates that private employers with 25 or more employees must use the federal E-Verify system for new hires [4][5][6]. Covered Florida employers are generally required to complete verification within three business days and retain records for at least three years [4][5][6]. Arizona's Legal Arizona Workers Act (LAWA), upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2011, requires all Arizona employers to use E-Verify for new employees, regardless of business size [7][8][9]. This act includes licensing-related enforcement mechanisms, such as suspension or revocation of business licenses, for knowingly hiring or retaining unauthorized workers [7][8][9]. Senator Britt's proposed act differs significantly by applying a universal E-Verify mandate without employee number thresholds, making it more stringent than these existing state laws.
Sources (9)
  1. 1U.S. Senator Katie Britt Leads Mandatory E-Verify Legislationbritt.senate.gov
  2. 2New Senate bill aims to ensure all US jobs go to legal workerswashingtonexaminer.com
  3. 3Senator Britt introduces bill requiring all US employers use E-Verify | Montgomery | waaytv.comwaaytv.com
  4. 4Florida’s Mandatory E-Verify Law: A Compliance Plan for Covered Employersfisherphillips.com
  5. 5FL Bill 1718 Mandates E-Verify For All Florida Employers With 25 or More Employees | Florida's Law Firm for Leadersgunster.com
  6. 6Beginning in July, Florida Will Require Businesses with 25+ Employees to Use E-Verifylandrumhr.com
  7. 7For Employers | Attorney General's Officeazag.gov
  8. 8State E-Verify Actionncsl.org
  9. 9U.S. Supreme Court Upholds Arizona Law Mandating Use of E-Verify and Penalizing Employers that Hire Undocumented Workers | Littlerlittler.com

8. What do recent I-9 audit and enforcement fine statistics from ICE for FY2025-2026 suggest about the current system's effectiveness and the pressure for reform?

Early 2025 NOI RateAt least ten times 2024 (230 audits) [1]
I-9 Paperwork Penalties$288-$2,861 per Form I-9 [2][1]
Max Unauthorized Worker Penalty$28,619 per worker [2][1]
I-9 enforcement has intensified significantly with increased audits and arrests. Statistics for FY2025-2026 indicate a marked rise in enforcement actions and penalties, reflecting stricter measures [3][4][5][1]. Third-party enforcement trackers report an increased audit tempo for FY2025–FY2026, with ICE publicly reporting over 1,100 arrests from at least 40 worksite enforcement actions within the first seven months of the current administration [1]. The Notice of Inspection rate in early 2025 was at least ten times that of 2024, when approximately 230 audits were issued [1]. Revisions to I-9 inspection guidance in March 2026 further signal stricter enforcement by reclassifying violations, which increases the likelihood of immediate fines for paperwork issues [3][4][5].
I-9 civil penalties have increased, targeting both paperwork and knowing violations. Current I-9 civil penalties, effective through 2026 after a January 2, 2025 inflation adjustment, range from $288 to $2,861 per Form I-9 for paperwork violations [2][1]. For third-or-subsequent instances of "knowing" hiring or continued employment of unauthorized workers, penalties can escalate to a maximum of $28,619 per unauthorized worker [2][1]. These policy changes and increased statistics collectively suggest a concerted effort to enhance the current system’s enforcement capabilities.
Despite enforcement, calls for mandatory E-Verify are growing, driven by federal voluntariness. The system’s perceived weakness regarding job authorization enforcement persists because E-Verify remains largely voluntary at the federal level, driving pushes for its mandatory expansion [6]. In 2026, state mandates are emerging, such as Ohio’s E-Verify Workforce Integrity Act, enacted in December 2025 and effective March 19, 2026, which mandates E-Verify for new hires in non-residential construction and imposes state-level penalties [7]. Legislative pressure for broader E-Verify implementation continues, with a Senate proposal reported in May 2026 aiming to make the “Mandatory E-Verify Act of 2026” permanent and nationwide, alongside earlier proposals still under consideration [8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1ICE Raids & I-9 Audits 2025-2026 | i9 Intelligencei-9intelligence.com
  2. 2I-9 Penalty Amounts 2026: $288 to $28,619 Per Violationi-9intelligence.com
  3. 3I9 inspectionice.gov
  4. 4ICE I-9 Rule Changes 2026 Increase Employer Penalty Riskclarkhill.com
  5. 5ICE Raises I-9 Enforcement Standards and Broadens its List of Fines | CDF Labor Law LLPcdflaborlaw.com
  6. 6Trump deportation push largely ignores major tool—E-Verify system that employers can use to check workersfortune.com
  7. 7Ohio’s New E-Verify Mandate: Advice for Construction Employers | Alston & Birdalston.com
  8. 8New Senate bill aims to ensure all US jobs go to legal workerswashingtonexaminer.com
  9. 9S.1151 - Accountability Through Electronic Verification Act 119th...congress.gov
  10. 10HR 251: Legal Workforce Act | Immigration Accountability Projectiaproject.org

9. What legislative hurdles and industry opposition does the Mandatory E-Verify Act of 2026 face, and what executive actions could the Trump administration take to advance it before 2027?

Legislative ProgressBills historically struggle beyond committee stages [1][2][3]
Democratic CriticismDeemed ineffective and harmful to employers, immigrants, and American workers [4]
Industry ConcernsPotential for labor shortages and increased operational costs [5][6][7][8][9]
The proposed Mandatory E-Verify Act of 2026 faces significant legislative hurdles and widespread opposition. Similar federal bills have historically struggled to advance beyond committee stages, largely due to bipartisan opposition and robust industry resistance [1][2][3]. Democratic lawmakers criticize E-Verify as 'ineffective and harmful to employers, immigrants, and American workers,' citing persistent accuracy challenges, the burden on workers to resolve errors, and the system's inability to detect identity fraud [4]. Business groups contend that sweeping requirements could exacerbate labor shortages, increase operational costs, and reduce competitiveness, with sectors such as agriculture, hospitality, and construction expressing fears of crippled operations [5][6][7][8][9]. Critics also highlight potential error rates that could affect hundreds of thousands of legal workers annually and the current lack of an appeals mechanism within the system [5][4][9].
A potential Trump administration could significantly advance E-Verify through executive and administrative actions. Such an administration could expand existing mandates for federal contractors and subcontractors, likely through revisions to the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR), which could require E-Verify for nearly all new hires on federal contracts [10][11]. The president could also leverage the 'bully pulpit' to advocate strongly for the program, pressuring Congress and employers, and propose increased funding for E-Verify and I-9 auditing [3]. Furthermore, executive orders could be used to revoke federal funding from jurisdictions that do not comply with federal immigration laws, potentially incentivizing states and localities to adopt or enforce E-Verify [12]. USCIS also gained direct authority to investigate and prosecute employers beginning in 2025 [11].
Sources (12)
  1. 1senate.govbritt.senate.gov
  2. 2newsfromthestates.com
  3. 3hrp.net
  4. 4shrm.org
  5. 5americanimmigrationcouncil.org
  6. 6governing.com
  7. 7woodsrogers.com
  8. 8pluribusnews.com
  9. 9cis.org
  10. 10onpay.com
  11. 11i-9intelligence.com
  12. 12foley.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Senator Katie Britt (R-AL) introduced the Mandatory E-Verify Act of 2026 in May 2026, which aims to make E-Verify usage mandatory for all U.S. employers regardless of size, following years of failed federal efforts [1][2]. Concurrently, E-Verify expansion is actively occurring at the state level through a patchwork of new mandates in 2026, including legislation in Ohio and proposed bills in states like New Jersey, Rhode Island, and South Dakota, despite notable business pushback [3][4][5].
Beyond legislative developments, E-Verify is undergoing updates in 2026, including the full implementation of Interface Control Agreement (ICA) version 32 in late June 2026, which will expand monitoring tools and update employer interface features [6][7]. The Trump administration’s federal stance on E-Verify remains complex and sometimes ambivalent, as it simultaneously urges employer compliance while criticizing an over-reliance on the system for determining work authorization [8]. Prediction markets for 2026-2027 are heavily focused on Trump administration appointments, such as the Attorney General, and mass deportation targets, though specific market catalysts for a nationwide mandatory E-Verify bill are less prominent than broader immigration enforcement sentiment [9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 01, 2027
  • Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 1New Senate bill aims to ensure all US jobs go to legal workerswashingtonexaminer.com
  2. 2Mandatory E-Verify Act of 2026: A Bill to Eliminate the Magnet for Illegal Immigration and Protect American Workersus.headtopics.com
  3. 3The New Reality of Worksite Enforcement: Navigating I-9 and E-Verify Shifts in 2026  - HR Daily Advisorhrdailyadvisor.hci.org
  4. 4E‑Verify: Widening Use, Lingering Challenges - American Immigration Councilamericanimmigrationcouncil.org
  5. 5Ones To Watch: Legislation Landscape for 2026 | Littlerlittler.com
  6. 6E-Verify Updates for Employers: 2025-2026 Changes to Enactnews.verifiedcredentials.com
  7. 7E-Verify | E-Verifye-verify.gov
  8. 8Article: Employment Verification: The Next Front f.. | migrationpolicy.orgmigrationpolicy.org
  9. 9Who Will be Trump's Next Attorney General? | Odds & Predictionsdefirate.com