Short Answer

Trump is expected to visit his D.C. golf club 4 times in November 2026, with the market pricing this outcome as a genuine toss-up at 48.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's median expectation for Trump's November D.C. golf club visits moved from 1.69 to 3, driven primarily by the November 13 announcement of a "$Trump Coin Gala Dinner" scheduled for November 22 at the club. This news appeared to confirm an additional visit that was not previously priced in, causing a sharp upward revision in the expected number of total visits.

This key development was preceded by other news catalysts. A social media post by Trump on November 10 regarding a dispute over the East Potomac Golf Links renovation coincided with a price spike for the "2 visits" outcome. Two days later, an NPR report on the same topic corresponded with a spike for "3 visits." Following the gala announcement, subsequent news on November 14 clarifying Trump's schedule reportedly caused a drop in the probability for "4" visits, suggesting a consolidation of market odds. A significant price move on November 11 lacks a clear driver based on available information.

Two D.C. club visits are confirmed; 1-2 more trips expected late November.
Three or four visits are likely, per historical November golfing data.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
1	3.0%	3.5%	Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
2	8.0%	8.5%	Trump might reduce D.C. travel due to other commitments or focus on non-capital properties.
3	29.0%	28.1%	Trump's pattern often involves frequent visits for golf, unofficial meetings, and social engagements.
4	48.0%	41.6%	Historical data indicates a median of four monthly visits post-presidency for golf and meetings.
6	7.0%	7.7%	Extensive club use for campaign events, fundraising, or social appearances could increase visits.

Current Context

Kalshi's market for Trump's D.C. golf club visits indicates a rising median. As of November 14, 2026, the market 'How many times will Trump visit his D.C. golf club in Nov 2026?' showed 4 visits at 60%, 3 visits at 29%, 2 visits at 8%, 6 visits at 7%, and 5 visits at 4% ^[1]^[2]. The median for this market moved from 1.69 on November 2 to 3, with the middle half concentrated between 3 and 4 visits ^[1]^[2]. Through November 14, Trump has played three confirmed golf rounds in November 2026: November 7 and 8 at Trump International Golf Club West Palm Beach, and November 11 at Trump National Golf Club Sterling, VA ^[3]^[4]. The November 11 visit involved his arrival at 1:08 PM after a Veterans Day wreath-laying at Arlington and departure at 4:59 PM ^[4]. A second D.C. golf club visit is scheduled for November 22, 2026, where Trump plans to attend a Trump Coin Gala Dinner at Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, VA, according to the 2026 presidential trips list ^[5].

Trump's late-November schedule includes significant international and domestic travel. His schedule for November 2026 includes a Mar-a-Lago stay from November 13–15, followed by the ASEAN Summit in Manila on November 17–18 and APEC in Shenzhen on November 18–19 ^[5]. The APEC summit includes a planned Trump–Xi–Putin trilateral meeting, which the White House has confirmed ^[5]^[6]. Analysts anticipate low expectations for major breakthroughs, viewing these talks as heavier in symbolism than substance ^[6]. Following these events, Trump is scheduled for Sterling, VA, on November 22, then Thanksgiving at Mar-a-Lago from November 24–29, which includes golf visits ^[5]. Further December events include the Army–Navy Game on December 12 and the G20 in Miami on December 14–15 ^[5].

Related prediction markets reflect high conviction on specific travel and meeting outcomes. As of November 14, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket showed probabilities of 83–85% for five or more Mar-a-Lago visits in November 2026 ^[7]. Polymarket indicated a 99% probability for Trump meeting Xi by November 30 ^[8]. Other related markets included Trump's approval rating clustered around 38.2–38.7 on November 20, 2026, and a 60% probability on Kalshi for House impeachment of Trump before January 1, 2028 ^[7]^[8].

Sources (8)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: 4

📉 November 14, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Price decreased from 60.0% to 48.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 12.0 percentage point drop in the "4" outcome was traditional news regarding President Trump's clarified November schedule, not social media activity. The confirmed second D.C. golf club visit for a $Trump Coin Gala Dinner on November 22, 2026, alongside established Mar-a-Lago and international travel dates, significantly reshaped expectations for his total D.C. visits ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This updated schedule likely narrowed the window for additional visits, making the prospect of exactly four visits less probable ^[1]. Social media activity about the East Potomac golf course closure was explicitly a separate D.C. golf story and was mostly irrelevant to this specific market ^[4].

📈 November 13, 2026: 52.0pp spike

Price increased from 8.0% to 60.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the price spike was the widespread news and social media activity on November 13, 2026, regarding the scheduled $Trump Coin Gala Dinner at Trump National, Washington D.C., on November 22 ^[2]. This announcement, following the TRUMP-coin holder ranking snapshot on November 12, confirmed a second visit to his D.C. golf club for November, after a golf round on November 11 ^[5]. This explicit confirmation of a second visit, pushing the baseline higher, fueled speculation for more visits, making the "4" outcome significantly more probable ^[6]. Social media, amplified by traditional news, was the primary driver of this movement.

Outcome: 3

📈 November 12, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 15.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 13.0 percentage point spike for "3" visits on November 12, 2026, appears to be a coinciding news/social-media catalyst related to a dispute over the proposed East Potomac Park golf-course redevelopment ^[7]. An NPR report published on November 12, 2026, about Democrats vowing to counter Trump's golf course plans, further contributed to this sentiment ^[8]. This news event, while causing market movement, was distinct from confirmed visits to Trump's D.C. golf club in Sterling, Virginia ^[7]. Given the available information, social media was likely a contributing accelerant within a broader news cycle rather than the sole primary driver.

Outcome: 2

📈 November 11, 2026: 33.0pp spike

Price increased from 41.0% to 74.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 33.0 percentage point spike for "2" visits on November 11, 2026, cannot be determined from the available information ^[9]^[10]. While Trump's golf log indicates a visit to his D.C.-area club on November 11 ^[5]^[11], the sources explicitly state there is no verifiable connection between this event or any social media activity and the reported market move ^[9]^[10]. Contemporaneous news regarding a D.C. golf course dispute was also not tied to this specific market fluctuation ^[9]^[10]. Therefore, social media activity was irrelevant to this price movement.

📈 November 10, 2026: 18.0pp spike

Price increased from 36.0% to 54.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 18.0 percentage point spike on November 10, 2026, for the "2" visits outcome was former President Trump's social media activity. On that date, Trump posted on Truth Social about his proposed renovation of the D.C. public East Potomac Golf Links and attacked the judge blocking it ^[12]^[13]. This coincided with The Hill reporting that this social media-fueled coverage caused the market spike ^[12]. Social media was a primary driver.

Sources (13)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves "Yes" if Donald Trump visits his D.C. golf club exactly the specified number of times during November 2026, and "No" if the visit count differs. The visits are tracked for the entire month of November 2026, with the maximum payout scheduled for December 1, 2026. The provided content does not detail specific conditions for what constitutes a "visit" or the data sources used for settlement.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
4	$0.48	$0.61	48%
3	$0.29	$0.77	29%
2	$0.07	$0.99	8%
6	$0.10	$0.98	7%
5	$0.19	$0.89	4%
1	$0.02	$0.99	3%
7 or more	$0.02	$0.99	1%

Market Discussion

As of November 14, 2026, prediction markets show varying odds, with PredictMarketCap indicating 4 visits at 60% and 3 visits at 29% ^[1], while 4Search shows 3 visits at 50% and 4 visits at 24%, with the market median having risen to 3 ^[2]. Trump has made one confirmed visit to his D.C. golf club on November 11, 2026, and a second D.C.-area club visit is scheduled for November 22, 2026 ^[3]. Historically, the August and October 2026 editions of this recurring market both resolved at 3 visits, providing a base rate for traders that informs the current median prediction ^[4].

Sources (4)

5. Trust Index

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score73Good

Market integrity is low (53), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score44High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score67Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. What catalysts emerging from the APEC and ASEAN summits (Nov 17-19) could alter Trump's schedule for the rest of November 2026?

APEC Summit Dates	November 18-19, 2026 ^[1]^[2]
APEC Summit Location	Shenzhen, China ^[1]^[2]
Trump APEC Attendance Status	No White House announcement as of early September 2026 ^[3]^[4]^[5]

The 2026 APEC leaders' summit, scheduled for November 18-19 in Shenzhen, China, presents a potential catalyst for altering Donald Trump's schedule ^[1]^[2]. A primary development is the possibility of a trilateral meeting among Vladimir Putin, Trump, and Xi Jinping during the summit ^[3]. As of early September 2026, the White House had not made any announcement regarding Trump's attendance. However, Kremlin officials have stated that a trilateral meeting involving the three leaders may occur, with Xi reportedly indicating Trump's participation ^[3]^[4]^[5].

Market expectations also suggest a divided late November schedule for Trump. A Kalshi market indicates that traders anticipate Trump will allocate his time in late November 2026 among his D.C. golf club, Mar-a-Lago, and the APEC trip ^[6].

Sources (6)

7. What does Donald Trump's historical golfing data from previous Novembers indicate for his likely final visit count in November 2026?

Most Likely Visit Count	3 or 4 visits (70-85% probability) ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Kalshi Implied Median (Nov 14, 2026)	3 visits (middle half 3-4) ^[2]
Probability for 4 Visits (Nov 14, 2026)	Approximately 43%-60% ^[1]^[3]

Donald Trump's November 2026 golf visits likely total three or four. These two outcomes collectively hold an estimated probability of 70-85% for his visits to Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. ^[1]^[2]^[3]. As of November 14, 2026, the implied median for visits was three, with the central 50% of predictions ranging between three and four visits ^[2]. This median represented an increase from 1.69 on November 2, 2026, suggesting that visits had already occurred, and market participants expected one to two additional visits before the month concluded ^[2].

Specific market odds favor four visits in November 2026. On November 14, 2026, outcome prices indicated probabilities of approximately 43-60% for four visits, and 26.5-29% for three visits ^[1]^[3]. Other potential outcomes carried lower probabilities, with five visits at roughly 16% and two visits at about 5-8% ^[1]^[3]. The market is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026, at 3:00 PM UTC ^[4]. A visit is defined as Donald Trump's arrival at and subsequent departure from the club, with each separate instance counted individually ^[4]^[5]^[6].

Sources (6)

8. How does the strategic purpose of Trump's D.C. golf club visits typically compare to his use of Mar-a-Lago during the same timeframe?

D.C. Golf Club Nov 2026 Leading Outcome	4 visits (43-60%) ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Mar-a-Lago Nov 2026 Leading Outcome	4 visits (31.5-52%) ^[4]^[5]
Mar-a-Lago Market Open Interest	~$18.8K, versus ~$1K for D.C. golf club market ^[6]^[5]

Projections for November 2026 indicate similar visit counts for both locations. As of November 14, 2026, predictions for Donald Trump's D.C. golf club visits suggest four visits as the most probable outcome, priced at 43% by PredictPedia or 60% by PredictMarketCap ^[1]^[2]. Other possibilities include three visits at 26.5-29%, five at 16%, and two at 4-8% ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This reflects a market shift from earlier in November when one to two visits were initially considered most likely at 36-40% ^[6]^[7]^[1]. Similarly, the Mar-a-Lago market for November 2026 also projected four visits as the most likely scenario, with odds ranging from 31.5-52% between November 3 and 8, 2026, and five or more visits at approximately 34% ^[4]^[5].

Market quality varies significantly, and strategic purpose details are absent from the research. The D.C. golf club market exhibits low liquidity, with approximately $1.3K in 24-hour volume and $1K in open interest, making it a less robust indicator ^[6]^[5]. In contrast, the Mar-a-Lago market demonstrates higher quality, rated between 57-72 out of 100, and features substantial open interest of approximately $18.8K, suggesting it is a more dependable measure of probabilities ^[6]^[5]. However, the provided research does not detail the strategic purpose behind these projected visits for November 2026.

Sources (7)

9. Which public data sources have proven most reliable for tracking Donald Trump's official vs. actual travel schedule in 2026?

Primary data sources	Official schedules, White House releases, public statements, official social media ^[1]
Major news outlets for tracking	AP, Reuters, CNN, Fox News, BBC, NYT, WSJ, Washington Post, NBC, ABC, CBS, MSNBC, Bloomberg, Politico, Axios, Semafor, The Guardian, The Information ^[1]
D.C. golf club visit definition	Actual physical presence, verified by news and flight tracking ^[2]

Tracking Donald Trump's travel relies on diverse official and public sources. Public data sources for tracking Donald Trump's travel schedule, particularly for prediction markets concerning his visits to the D.C. golf club in 2026, include official schedules of the President, White House releases, and public statements ^[1]. Information is also gathered from official social media accounts belonging to Donald Trump or his authorized representatives, as well as official government sources from the relevant state ^[1]. Major news organizations, such as The Associated Press, Reuters, CNN, Fox News, BBC, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal, further contribute to this comprehensive tracking effort ^[1].

A D.C. golf club visit requires verified actual physical presence. For the D.C. golf club market, a visit is specifically defined by Donald Trump's actual physical presence, which is verified through news reports and flight tracking ^[2]. This approach differs from relying solely on his official schedule to confirm a visit ^[2]. This methodology ensures that each separate instance of physical presence is counted individually for market resolution ^[3].

Sources (3)

10. What unscheduled political events between Nov 20-30 could compel Trump to return to the D.C. area during his planned Thanksgiving at Mar-a-Lago?

Implied D.C. Golf Visits (Nov 2026)	Roughly 1-2 more D.C. area trips ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Kalshi Leading Outcome (D.C. Golf)	4 visits (approx. 43%) ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Market Resolution Sources	Official White House schedules, major news outlets, and Trump's official social media ^[4]^[5]

Traders expect 1-2 more D.C. trips in late November. The market's implied expectation for Trump's D.C. golf club visits in November 2026 suggests traders believe he will make approximately 1-2 additional D.C. area trips between November 20-30, despite his planned Thanksgiving at Mar-a-Lago on November 26. This implies that an unscheduled political event compelling a return to the D.C. area is priced as likely but not certain ^[1]^[2]^[3]. As of November 14, 2026, market snapshots, Kalshi odds for D.C. golf club visits show four total visits as the leading outcome, at approximately 43%, with three visits around 26.5-29% ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This aligns with a related market on Mar-a-Lago visits in November 2026, which also prices four visits as the leading outcome, consistent with a pattern of Trump splitting time between Florida and D.C. this month ^[4]^[6].

No specific unscheduled event has been identified for late November. No particular named unscheduled political event for November 20-30, 2026 (e.g., a specific vote, hearing, or crisis) that would compel a return was found in the search results ^[4]^[5]. The resolution sources for these market predictions include official White House schedules, major news outlets (such as Reuters, AP, WSJ, and Politico), and Trump's official social media. Any compelling event that would prompt a return would therefore need to be publicly documented by these sources ^[4]^[5]. A visit still in progress at the end of the month counts towards the market's resolution on December 1, 2026, at 3:00 PM UTC ^[5]^[7]^[8].

Sources (8)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of Nov 14, 2026, Trump has played 3 confirmed golf rounds in November 2026, with one visit to his D.C. golf club (Trump National Golf Club, Sterling, Va.) on Nov 11, after the Arlington wreath-laying ^[1]^[2]^[3]. A second D.C. club visit is confirmed for Nov 22, 2026, for a $Trump Coin Gala Dinner at Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Va., per the White House travel schedule ^[4]. Trump's November schedule is heavily packed away from D.C., including Mar-a-Lago Nov 13–15, ASEAN Summit Nov 17–18, APEC Nov 18–19 (with planned Trump-Xi-Putin trilateral), and Thanksgiving at Mar-a-Lago Nov 24–29, limiting additional D.C. club visits to the Nov 21–23 window ^[4]^[5]. His golf cadence supports higher visit counts, with 146 total rounds logged through Nov 13, 2026, and 88 club visits in 2025, where Sterling, Va. was his most-visited D.C.-area course (e.g., 9 outings in both March and Nov 2025 patterns) ^[6]^[3].

The Kalshi market kxdcgolfvisitcount-26nov, closing Dec 1, 2026, prices 4 visits at 60%, 3 at 29%, 2 at 8%, 6 at 7%, and 5 at 4%; the median for this market rose from 1.69 on Nov 2 to 3, with the middle half at 3–4 visits ^[7]^[8]. The 2026 midterms on Nov 3 produced a Democratic blue wave: Democrats won the House and Senate with flips in TX, OH, IA, KS, ME, NC, SC (54-46+ Senate) ^[9]^[10]^[11]. Polymarket 'Blue wave in 2026?' is >99%, while the Republican trifecta market is <1%, indicating a major bearish political catalyst for Trump's 2026 agenda markets ^[10]^[11]. Recurring weekly politics markets (11/8–11/14) priced at least one Executive Order this week at 77% (tariffs/immigration), Truth Social posts <60 at 71%, Mar-a-Lago visits in Nov 5+ at 85%, and House impeachment of Trump before Jan 1, 2028, at 60% ^[12].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: December 01, 2026
Closes: December 01, 2026

Sources (12)

12. Keep Exploring

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map. More Recurring markets See more recurring setups in the same theme. Browse all Politics markets Keep exploring adjacent politics markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 14 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

KXDCGOLFVISITCOUNT-26NOV-0: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
KXDCGOLFVISITCOUNT-26OCT-7: NO (Nov 01, 2026)
KXDCGOLFVISITCOUNT-26OCT-6: NO (Nov 01, 2026)
KXDCGOLFVISITCOUNT-26OCT-5: NO (Nov 01, 2026)
KXDCGOLFVISITCOUNT-26OCT-4: NO (Nov 01, 2026)

How many times will Trump visit his D.C. golf club in Nov 2026?

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: 4

📉 November 14, 2026: 12.0pp drop

📈 November 13, 2026: 52.0pp spike

Outcome: 3

📈 November 12, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Outcome: 2

📈 November 11, 2026: 33.0pp spike

📈 November 10, 2026: 18.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. What catalysts emerging from the APEC and ASEAN summits (Nov 17-19) could alter Trump's schedule for the rest of November 2026?

7. What does Donald Trump's historical golfing data from previous Novembers indicate for his likely final visit count in November 2026?

8. How does the strategic purpose of Trump's D.C. golf club visits typically compare to his use of Mar-a-Lago during the same timeframe?

9. Which public data sources have proven most reliable for tracking Donald Trump's official vs. actual travel schedule in 2026?

10. What unscheduled political events between Nov 20-30 could compel Trump to return to the D.C. area during his planned Thanksgiving at Mar-a-Lago?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Historical Resolutions

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: 4

📉 November 14, 2026: 12.0pp drop

📈 November 13, 2026: 52.0pp spike

Outcome: 3

📈 November 12, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Outcome: 2

📈 November 11, 2026: 33.0pp spike

📈 November 10, 2026: 18.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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