Short Answer

Trump is not expected to golf this weekend, November 13-15, an outcome the market prices at 61.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's largest price movement, a 50.0 percentage point spike on November 14, was driven by a White House announcement the previous day. The announcement confirmed President Trump's extensive international travel schedule, with a departure set for Monday, November 16. This news appears to have led traders to price in a higher probability that the weekend would be his last opportunity to golf before the trip.

Earlier volatility was tied to specific media and official schedules. A 16.0 percentage point spike on November 11 followed a 1:25 a.m. Truth Social post from Trump concerning a settlement at his Bedminster golf club. This post seems to have increased speculation about his weekend activities. Conversely, an 18.0 point drop on November 13 coincided with official White House schedules listing the president in Washington for the entire weekend, though no single news event was identified as the direct cause for that move. An earlier price movement reported for November 10 could not be confirmed in the provided research.

Not this weekend (Nov 13-15) leads, as international travel is expected from Nov 16.
November 14 appears the most likely golf day, per Mar-a-Lago flight restrictions.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
Nov 13	1.0%	0.7%	Trump often golfed during his presidency.
Nov 14	30.0%	32.4%	Trump often golfed on weekends during his presidency.
Nov 15	27.0%	27.3%	Trump often golfed on weekends during his presidency.
Not this weekend (Nov 13-15)	61.0%	51.1%	Trump has not traveled for golf since the election and has no planned outings this weekend.

Current Context

Prediction markets show varied odds for weekend golf activity. As of November 13, 2026, the Trump golf tracker shows no round recorded for that day; his last confirmed round was November 11 at Trump National Golf Club, Sterling, Va., representing outing #146 of his term and 53 days golfed in 2026 ^[1]^[2]. This followed back-to-back rounds November 7–8 at Trump International Golf Club, West Palm Beach ^[1]. Kalshi's market for the November 13–15 weekend lists Saturday, November 14, at 35% (up 29 points, Yes 40¢) and Sunday, November 15, at 15% (Yes 11¢), with 'Not this weekend' at 32% ^[3]. A separate aggregator for the same market shows November 15 YES at 84%, with 1.3K contracts open interest and $2,379 total volume, resolving November 17, 2026 ^[4]^[5]. Clutch prediction markets (312 bettors, 12.2K staked) placed Trump golfing November 13 at 17% and November 14 at 30% (down 19 points in 24 hours, 309 bettors) ^[6]^[7]. Resolution for Clutch markets is strictly against the Roll Call Factbase public presidential schedule ^[6]^[7].

Trump's upcoming schedule includes a Mar-a-Lago stay before an Asia trip. He plans a Mar-a-Lago weekend from November 13–15, followed by a November 16 Anchorage refueling stop ^[8]. His itinerary then includes the ASEAN Summit in Manila November 17–18 and APEC in Shenzhen November 18–19 ^[8]. The White House confirmed on November 14 that Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin will hold the first-ever trilateral meeting on the sidelines of APEC in Shenzhen, focusing on nuclear proliferation and a New START replacement ^[9]^[10]. Trump will also hold a bilateral working lunch with Xi (their fourth meeting) but no separate one-on-one with Putin ^[9]^[10]. Elon Musk will accompany Trump on this trip, with plans to avoid the Nvidia scandal ^[11]. Expert Hal Brands (Johns Hopkins SAIS, US–China Economic and Security Review Commission) expects Trump to seek diplomatic calm with China given his weakened political position; the US–China trade truce was just extended to mid-January, and the Quad leaders' meeting in Manila is expected to be a box-checking exercise and likely Trump's final Quad gathering this term ^[12]. Future events include a November 22 $Trump Coin Gala Dinner at Trump National Golf Club (Sterling, Va.), Thanksgiving at Mar-a-Lago November 24–29 with golf, the Army–Navy Game December 12, and the G20 Miami summit December 14–15 at Trump National Doral ^[8].

Prior golf history suggests Saturday is the most likely golf day. Trump's most-visited course is Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, with 54 confirmed rounds, accounting for 37.0% of all outings ^[1]. He golfed both Saturday and Sunday the previous weekend (November 7–8) at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach ^[1]. Given his Mar-a-Lago weekend plans, a Saturday, November 14, round at Trump International Golf Club, West Palm Beach, represents the most likely weekend golf day ^[1]^[8].

Sources (12)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Not this weekend (Nov 13-15)

📈 November 14, 2026: 50.0pp spike

Price increased from 30.0% to 80.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the White House's announcement on November 13, 2026, confirming President Trump's upcoming extensive international travel ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Trump was scheduled to depart on Monday, November 16, for summits in Manila and Shenzhen, including a trilateral meeting with Xi Jinping and Putin ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This major diplomatic commitment, announced before the market spike by November 14, made it highly improbable he would golf during the Nov 13-15 weekend ^[4]^[5]. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity from key figures or viral narratives was found.

Outcome: Nov 15

📈 November 13, 2026: 37.0pp spike

Price increased from 28.0% to 65.0%

What happened: The 37.0 percentage point spike in the "Nov 15" outcome on November 13, 2026, could not be tied to a specific social media post or traditional news story ^[5]. While official schedules listed President Trump at the White House for the entire weekend ^[6]^[7]^[8], a Wikipedia entry showed a planned Mar-a-Lago trip for the same dates, potentially contributing to market uncertainty ^[9]. The spike's driver remains unverified and is likely attributable to attention-driven repricing rather than a singular catalyst ^[5]. Therefore, social media was not identified as a primary driver for this market movement.

📉 November 10, 2026: 63.0pp drop

Price decreased from 80.0% to 17.0%

What happened: The specified 63.0 percentage point drop for the "Nov 15" outcome on November 10, 2026, could not be confirmed in the provided research, which instead documented a similar drop in a different market for a prior weekend ^[10]. Without direct evidence of this particular price movement, identifying its primary driver from the available information is not possible. However, President Trump's schedule for November 13–15 included a visit to Mar-a-Lago before an international Asia trip starting November 16 ^[9], a commitment that would inherently reduce the likelihood of golfing on November 15. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or relevant to explaining this unconfirmed price change.

Outcome: Nov 14

📈 November 12, 2026: 19.0pp spike

Price increased from 35.0% to 54.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 19.0 percentage point spike for the "Nov 14" outcome was the news on November 12, 2026, reporting that Trump was photographed in golf attire at Trump National Golf Club in Virginia, hours after his Veterans Day speech ^[11]. This direct visual evidence, coinciding with the market movement, signaled an increased likelihood of him golfing during his scheduled weekend stay at Mar-a-Lago in Florida from November 13-15 ^[9]. Social media activity, particularly a "backlash" over Melania's delayed arrival at the Veterans Day ceremony, served as a contributing accelerant by creating an "attention spike" around the broader incident, including Trump's golf attire ^[11]. Social media was thus a contributing accelerant, amplifying the visibility of the news rather than being the primary source of the information.

📈 November 11, 2026: 29.0pp spike

Price increased from 6.0% to 35.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 29.0 percentage point spike for "Nov 14" was a Truth Social post by Trump, which appeared to lead the price move on November 11, 2026 ^[4]^[12]. At 1:25 a.m. that day, Trump posted a double-rant referencing a sexual-harassment suit settlement at his Bedminster, N.J. golf club, which reportedly "fueled golf-related attention" ^[12]. This social media activity, combined with his planned Mar-a-Lago weekend visit where golf is common ^[9]^[8]^[13], likely solidified expectations for a Saturday golf round before his extensive international travel ^[9]^[14]^[15]. Social media was a primary driver.

Sources (15)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves based on whether Donald Trump golfs during the weekend of November 13-15. A "YES" outcome for a specific day (Nov 13, 14, or 15) means he golfs on that day, while a "YES" for "Not this weekend" means he does not golf on any of those days; the precise definition of "golfing" is not provided in the content. The event period for resolution is November 13-15, and the maximum payout date is listed as November 17, 2026, with no other special settlement conditions detailed.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
Nov 13	$0.02	$1.00	1%
Nov 14	$0.27	$0.83	30%
Not this weekend (Nov 13-15)	$0.79	$0.38	61%
Nov 15	$0.47	$0.69	27%

Market Discussion

The White House announced President Trump would spend November 13–15, 2026, at the White House, contradicting an earlier planned Mar-a-Lago visit for that period which was subsequently reported as cancelled ^[1]. Consequently, while no round is recorded for November 13, 2026 ^[2], prediction markets still assign the highest probability (35%) to golf on November 14, 2026, a day historically favored by traders in prior weekend markets ^[3].

Sources (3)

5. Trust Index

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score84Good

Trade quality20% of score51Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score77Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. How might Trump's scheduled APEC summit with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin on November 18-19 impact his decision to golf versus prepare during the preceding weekend (Nov 13-15)?

Trump, Xi, Putin meet before Jan 1, 2027	90% ^[1]
Trump visits China before Dec 1, 2026	93% ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Probability of golf on Nov 14 (Saturday)	~35% (Yes 40 ) ^[4]

Conflicting signals are emerging in prediction markets regarding former President Trump's golf decisions for November 13-15, largely driven by an anticipated APEC summit with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin scheduled for November 18-19 ^[4]^[5]^[1]^[6]. The potential need for extensive preparations for this rare trilateral meeting has made 'no golf this weekend' a serious consideration, with some market snapshots indicating this outcome as high as 59.5% ^[4]^[1]^[5]^[6]. Prediction markets further underscore the significance of the APEC context, with the contract 'When will Trump, Xi and Putin meet together? Before Jan 1, 2027' trading at 90%, and 'Will Trump visit China? Before Dec 1, 2026' at 93% ^[1]^[2]^[3].

Notwithstanding the demands of the upcoming APEC summit, market activity also reflects an expectation for golf during the preceding weekend. The November 14 (Saturday) golf contract currently stands as the leading single-day outcome at approximately 35% (Yes 40), representing a significant increase of 29 points ^[4]. This contract experienced the largest swing in the event, moving +25 to +29 points in a 24-hour period, suggesting that traders are increasingly anticipating Trump will golf on Saturday before traveling to China for the summit ^[4]^[2]^[3]. Furthermore, November 15 (Sunday) also holds a notable probability for golf, ranging from approximately 15% to 56.5% across various snapshots, while November 13 (Friday) has a low probability, approximately 1-9% ^[4]^[5].

Sources (6)

7. What is the primary evidence supporting the 'Not this weekend' outcome, considering his international travel to the APEC summit begins on November 16?

Kalshi 'Not this weekend' price	59.5% ^[1]^[2]
Frenzy Capital 'Not this weekend' odds	70% with ~$7K 24h volume ^[1]^[2]
Trump APEC trip start date	November 16, 2026 ^[1]^[3]^[4]^[5]

Upcoming international travel is the main reason for no golf. President Trump is not expected to play golf the weekend of November 13-15, 2026, primarily due to his impending APEC summit trip to China, which is scheduled to begin on November 16, 2026 ^[1]^[3]^[4]^[5]. The weekend is anticipated to be dedicated to White House work and preparations for this international travel. Official presidential schedules and pool reports do not list a golf flag for this period ^[1]^[5].

Prediction markets strongly favor no golf this upcoming weekend. Market activity indicates that 'Not this weekend' is the favored outcome. As of November 14, 2026, at 6:00 AM UTC, this outcome was the top-priced on Kalshi at 59.5% ^[1]^[2]. Frenzy Capital also listed it as the favorite at 70%, with approximately $7,000 in 24-hour volume ^[1]^[2]. The price history reflects active repricing as the November 16 APEC departure plans were factored into predictions ^[6]^[5]. Despite this strong indication, a golf round on Sunday, November 15, before departure, remains a competing scenario ^[1]^[7].

Sources (7)

8. How does Trump's historical golfing frequency on Saturdays compare to Sundays when staying at Mar-a-Lago for a full weekend?

Sunday Golf Likelihood (Prediction Market)	approximately 84% YES (Nov 15 contract) ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Saturday Golf Likelihood (Prediction Market)	approximately 35-46% YES (Nov 14 contract) ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Sunday Golf Odds Surge (Prediction Market)	84-89% by Nov 14-15 (Nov 15 contract) ^[5]^[6]^[3]

Trump typically golfs more frequently on Sundays than Saturdays at Mar-a-Lago. When staying at Mar-a-Lago for a full weekend, his historical golfing frequency shows a consistent pattern of Sunday golf being more common than Saturday golf. This trend is attributed to a well-established ritual of Sunday morning golf, contrasting with less frequent Saturday golf ^[1]^[3]^[4]. His typical full-weekend schedule usually involves arriving on Friday or Saturday and then golfing on Sunday before departing ^[1]^[3]^[4].

Prediction market data supports the higher probability of Sunday golf. This historical tendency is reflected in a Kalshi market concerning golfing activities from November 13-15, 2026. In this market, the November 15 (Sunday) contract was the favored option, showing approximately 84% YES. In comparison, the November 14 (Saturday) contract traded significantly lower at approximately 35-46% YES ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. Further analysis of the odds for this specific weekend revealed a sharp increase for Sunday golf, with the November 15 contract surging to 84-89% between November 14-15. This upward trend indicated a growing expectation among traders for a Sunday golf round, highlighting Sunday as the more probable day for golfing activities compared to Saturday ^[5]^[6]^[3].

Sources (6)

9. Which public schedules and tracking services provide the most reliable near-real-time data for confirming Trump's November 13-15 golf activity?

Primary Confirmation Source	Roll Call Factbase presidential calendar feed (machine-readable JSON) ^[1]^[2]
Secondary Confirmation Channels	White House pool reports, Getty Images, Reuters Connect, AP Photos ^[1]^[2]
Day Counts as Golf if	Roll Call Factbase 'golf' value is true OR unambiguous image/pool report ^[1]^[2]

Roll Call Factbase offers the most reliable near-real-time golf data. The most reliable near-real-time public data source for confirming Donald Trump's golf activity between November 13-15 is Roll Call Factbase's presidential calendar feed, which is accessible as a machine-readable JSON feed ^[1]^[2]. Secondary confirmation channels include White House pool reports or unambiguous images from Getty Images, Reuters Connect, or AP Photos that show Trump playing golf ^[1]^[2].

Golf activity is defined by specific criteria for market resolution. For prediction market purposes, a day counts as golf if the Roll Call Factbase feed's 'golf' value is true ^[1]^[2]. Alternatively, a day also qualifies if a White House pool report or an image from Getty Images, Reuters Connect, or AP Photos unambiguously shows Trump playing golf on that day ^[1]^[2]. Markets for this event may resolve as soon as a day counts; otherwise, they resolve at expiration. The listed end dates are November 15, 16, and 17 at 15:00 UTC for the November 13, 14, and 15 contracts respectively ^[1]^[2].

Sources (2)

10. What travel records and historical patterns support the market's pricing for a Trump golf outing on Saturday, November 14?

Nov 14, 2026 Golf Outing Probability	78% (+79pt 24h move) ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Nov 14 Market Volume	$123 ^[3]^[5]
Market Quality Rating	34/100 'low quality' ^[3]^[5]

Market pricing for a Trump golf outing reflects evolving sentiment. The market indicates high expectations for a Trump golf outing on Saturday, November 14, 2026, with the price reaching 78% after a significant shift in sentiment. This represents a substantial increase, having jumped from an earlier 29.5% to 35.5%, then to 78% with a +79pt 24-hour move, as traders' expectations shifted towards a Saturday golf outing ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. However, the available facts do not contain specific travel records or historical patterns that explicitly support a golf outing on that precise date; instead, the pricing appears to reflect evolving market sentiment rather than documented events ^[1]^[2]^[4]^[6].

Low market volume affects the confidence of current pricing. Despite the high probability indicated, the market volume for November 14, 2026, is thin, with only $123, contributing to noisy and low-confidence prices. The market quality is rated 34/100, categorized as 'low quality' ^[3]^[5]. While related pattern markets for November 2026 suggest a general tendency for frequent golf, with 2+ visits to his D.C. golf club priced at 54% and 'At least 11' days at Mar-a-Lago priced at 60%, no news source in the research confirmed or denied Trump actually golfing on November 13–15, 2026, and no source explicitly documented a golf outing for that specific weekend ^[6]^[4]^[1]^[2]^[4]^[6].

Sources (6)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Kalshi's 'When will Trump golf this weekend? (11/13-11/15)' market prices November 14 (Saturday) at 35% (▲29), November 15 (Sunday) at 15%, and November 13 (Friday) at 9¢, with 'Not this weekend' at 32% ^[1]^[2]. The FAA 'Initial VIP Movement Notification' flight restrictions over Mar-a-Lago airspace for November 13–14 confirm Trump's fifth Mar-a-Lago trip of the season ^[3]^[4]. This presence aligns with a recurring Mar-a-Lago weekend golf pattern, where he golfed both days of the prior two Palm Beach weekends (November 6–8 and October 30–31) ^[4]^[5]. Saturday historically registers as the favorite day for golf; November 7 settled at 89% pre-close and won ^[5].

The bearish case for weekend golf centers on the official White House schedule and impending international travel. The White House published a full Friday–Sunday in-town schedule for November 13–15, 2026 ^[6]. Friday includes Executive Time at 8:00 AM and four closed-press policy meetings in the Oval Office from 12:30–4:30 PM ^[6]. Saturday and Sunday each list only 8:00/8:30 AM Executive Time at the White House ^[6]. This schedule is a bearish signal for golf, despite the Mar-a-Lago trip, and the Clutch November 14 market fell 19 points in 24 hours to 30% ^[6]^[7]. An imminent Asia trip, involving the ASEAN Summit in Manila November 17–18 and APEC in Shenzhen November 18–19, likely drives an early Sunday departure ^[4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Strike Date: November 16, 2026
Expiration: November 15, 2026
Closes: November 17, 2026

Sources (7)

12. Keep Exploring

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map. More Travel & meetings markets See more travel & meetings setups in the same theme. Browse all Politics markets Keep exploring adjacent politics markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

Recent resolutions:

KXTRUMPGOLFD-26NOV06-SUN: YES (Nov 08, 2026)
KXTRUMPGOLFD-26NOV06-SAT: YES (Nov 08, 2026)
KXTRUMPGOLFD-26NOV06-NONE: NO (Nov 08, 2026)
KXTRUMPGOLFD-26NOV06-FRI: NO (Nov 08, 2026)
KXTRUMPGOLFD-26OCT30-SUN: NO (Nov 03, 2026)

When will Trump golf this weekend? (11/13-11/15)

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: Not this weekend (Nov 13-15)

📈 November 14, 2026: 50.0pp spike

Outcome: Nov 15

📈 November 13, 2026: 37.0pp spike

📉 November 10, 2026: 63.0pp drop

Outcome: Nov 14

📈 November 12, 2026: 19.0pp spike

📈 November 11, 2026: 29.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. How might Trump's scheduled APEC summit with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin on November 18-19 impact his decision to golf versus prepare during the preceding weekend (Nov 13-15)?

7. What is the primary evidence supporting the 'Not this weekend' outcome, considering his international travel to the APEC summit begins on November 16?

8. How does Trump's historical golfing frequency on Saturdays compare to Sundays when staying at Mar-a-Lago for a full weekend?

9. Which public schedules and tracking services provide the most reliable near-real-time data for confirming Trump's November 13-15 golf activity?

10. What travel records and historical patterns support the market's pricing for a Trump golf outing on Saturday, November 14?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Related News

White House Schedule, Court Drama Sink Odds of Trump Weekend Golf Trip

14. Historical Resolutions

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: Not this weekend (Nov 13-15)

📈 November 14, 2026: 50.0pp spike

Outcome: Nov 15

📈 November 13, 2026: 37.0pp spike

📉 November 10, 2026: 63.0pp drop

Outcome: Nov 14

📈 November 12, 2026: 19.0pp spike

📈 November 11, 2026: 29.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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White House Schedule, Court Drama Sink Odds of Trump Weekend Golf Trip

Prediction Markets

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Company