Vail Resorts skier visits in Q1

Vail Resorts anticipates a meaningful visitation recovery in FY2027. For fiscal year 2026, Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN) reported total skier visits of 15.299 million, a 13.4% decrease from 17.665 million in FY2025, alongside Resort Reported EBITDA of $745.7 million and net income attributable to Vail Resorts of $147.5 million ^[1][2]. Management expects a meaningful visitation recovery in FY2027 from the weather-impacted FY2026, though U.S. visitation is not projected to fully return to FY2025 levels ^[1][3][4][5]. Recovery from lower pass visitation is partly expected through increased lift-ticket sales ^[1][3][4][5]. Initial FY2027 guidance sets net income attributable to Vail Resorts at $158 million-$233 million and Resort Reported EBITDA at $805 million-$865 million, which includes approximately $14 million in one-time costs ^[1][6][7][5]. The midpoint EBITDA margin is about 26.9%, or 27.3% excluding these one-time costs ^[1][7]. FY2027 assumptions include normal weather for North American, European, and Australian seasons, pricing and product optimization, greater ancillary spending, approximately $25 million in resource-efficiency savings, and continued softness in pass demand ^[1][7][4]. Weather and pass sales were the primary forecasting risks in FY2026, causing a significant reduction from an initial EBITDA outlook of $842 million-$898 million to a final range of $735 million-$755 million ^[8][9].

Q1 is an early season period, with no company visitation target. Vail Resorts' fiscal Q1 2027 concludes October 31, 2026, with results typically released in early-to-mid December ^[10][5]. This quarter primarily reflects early-season activity and season pass sales, not the peak ski-visit period ^[1][11][12]. Published communications from management do not include a specific Q1 FY2027 skier visits forecast ^[1][2][5]. Industry analysts identify weather, pass sales, and fixed costs as key risks ^[13]. As of September 18, 2026, season pass units for the 2026/27 season were down 12% year-over-year, with pass days sold down 10% and pass sales dollars down 6% ^[5]. These declines follow earlier reported figures through May 26, 2026, showing approximately 10% fewer units, 8% fewer days, and 5% lower sales dollars ^[13][8]. Analyst firms like UBS and Mizuho expect FY2027 visitation recovery toward fiscal 2025 levels, but note deteriorating sentiment on pass sales as a risk to EBITDA expectations ^{[5][14][15][16][17][18]}. While analysts expect higher Q1 FY2027 skier visits compared to the prior-year quarter, the rebound is constrained by softer pass sales. Analyst reports do not contain an explicit published Q1 skier-visits consensus estimate ^{[5][14][15][16][17][18]}. An analytical estimate for fiscal Q1 2027 skier visits is approximately 0.70 million, within a plausible range of 0.60-0.85 million. This midpoint represents a roughly 5% year-over-year decrease from Q1 FY2026's 0.739 million, accounting for the reported pass unit declines and potential for improved opening conditions ^[8]. This remains an analytical estimate, not company guidance or a prediction-market quote ^[8].