McDonald's Corporation total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~24h): For "Above 46200", the model led a -23.2pp drop, flipping the edge.
- The model also led a 13.3pp decline for "Above 46300", compressing the edge.
- Overall confidence decreased by 1.0pp as the model's headline probability declined 3.8pp.
- Systemwide restaurants likely exceed 46,100, driven by official 2026 net addition guidance.
- Exceeding 46,200 remains uncertain given cautious franchisee sentiment and construction costs.
- Reaching above 46,300 restaurants in Q2 2026 appears unlikely based on current projections.
Current Context
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For this market, a YES resolution occurs if McDonald's Corporation's total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026 are above the specified numerical threshold (e.g., 45900, 46000, 46100). Conversely, a NO resolution is triggered if the total systemwide restaurants are at or below the stated threshold. Trading for this market ends on August 5, 7:00 am EDT, and no other special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content.
Market Discussion
McDonald's Corporation has not yet announced its official Q2 2026 total systemwide restaurant count, as Q2 2026 financial results were not yet available as of July 14, 2026 [1][2][3]. The most recent confirmed figure is 45,699 systemwide restaurants worldwide as of March 31, 2026, reported in their Q1 2026 filings [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][3]. The company is executing a growth strategy that targets 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027, with 2,600 gross openings planned for 2026 [5][11].
Sources (11)
- 1McDONALD'S REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - May 7, 2026mcdonalds.mediaroom.com
- 2McDonald's Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultscorporate.mcdonalds.com
- 3McDONALD'S REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTSOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 4Documentcdn.yahoofinance.com
- 5McDonald’s Q1 2026 revenue hits $6,517M | MCD 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 6McDonald - 10-Q quarterly report FY2026 Q1companiesmarketcap.com
- 7www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 8www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
- 9www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 10www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 11McDonald's NEXT Strategy: The 2026 Global Growth Planglobalbrandsmagazine.com
4. Trader Dashboard
5. What do recent franchisee surveys and Q1 2026 earnings commentary reveal about franchisee sentiment and its potential impact on new restaurant openings?
| Franchisee sentiment rating | 1.37/5 (as of February 2026) [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 franchisee sentiment | Constructive but cautious, appearing cautiously optimistic [6][7][8] |
| Target restaurant count | About 50,000 by end-2027 [6][7][8] |
Sources (10)
- 1McDonald's (MCD) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 2McDonald’s Weighs Refranchising as Company-Operated Performance Lags - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 3McDonald's (MCD) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript - AOLaol.com
- 4Value is the key to McDonald’s growth plans, but it’s creating tensions with some franchisees - CNBC Africacnbcafrica.com
- 5McDonald's Franchise: Cost, Liquid Capital & Payback 2026franchiseinvestordata.com
- 6MCD_Q12026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 7MCD_Q12026, Page: 6Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 8MCD_Q12026, Page: 9Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 9McDonald's sees weak start to Q2 as high gas prices dent consumer sentiment | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 10Value Pushes Strong Q1 for McDonald’s Operators as Company Considers Refranchising Corporate Stores | Franchise News | franchisetimes.comfranchisetimes.com
6. What strategic guidance from McDonald's' Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings calls could influence its pace of net restaurant openings?
| Target Restaurant Count | 50,000 worldwide by end of 2027 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Current Restaurant Count | 45,699 (Q1 2026) [4] |
| Net Restaurant Unit Sales Growth Contribution | Approximately 2.5% for 2026 (constant currencies) [5][1][3][6] |
7. How did McDonald's' net restaurant unit growth in 2025 and Q1 2026 compare to that of other global QSR giants like Yum! Brands and Restaurant Brands International?
| McDonald's 2026 Net Additions | 2,100 (full year 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| RBI Net Restaurant Growth | 2.6% (Q1 2026 trailing twelve months) [2] |
| Yum! Brands Q1 Unit Increase | 5% (gross new unit opening increase compared to prior year) [3][4][5] |
Sources (6)
- 1Documentcdn.yahoofinance.com
- 2Restaurant Brands International Inc. Reports First Quarter...rbi.com
- 3Documentsec.gov
- 4Yum Brands Inc (YUM) 10-Q Quarterly Report May 2026last10k.com
- 5Yum! Brands Reports First-Quarter Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 6Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) 10-Q Quarterly Report May 2026last10k.com
8. What is the expected release date for McDonald's' Q2 2026 10-Q filing, and where in the report is the official systemwide restaurant count disclosed?
| Q2 2026 Earnings Release Date | August 4, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Restaurant Count Disclosure Filing | 10-Q filing [6][7][8] |
| Specific Restaurant Count Location | Table detailing 'Restaurants' within 'Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements' section of 10-Q filing [6][7][8] |
Sources (8)
- 1McDonald's (MCD) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
- 2McDonald's Corporation: Company Events Publications and Financial Calendar | MCD | US5801351017 | MarketScreener UKuk.marketscreener.com
- 3McDonald’s (MCD) Earnings Date & Report - Investing.cominvesting.com
- 4MCD Earnings Dates, Upcoming and Historical McDonald'smarketchameleon.com
- 5Company Events Publications and Financial Calendar | MCDmarketscreener.com
- 6McDonald - 10-Q quarterly report FY2026 Q1companiesmarketcap.com
- 7McDonald - 10-Q quarterly report FY2025 Q2companiesmarketcap.com
- 8[10-Q] McDonald's Corporation Quarterly Earnings Report | MCD Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
9. What is the consensus among financial analysts for McDonald's net restaurant growth in Q2 2026, and how does this align with historical quarterly data?
| Projected New Restaurants 2026 | 2,600 globally (full year) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Estimated Q2 2026 Earnings Release | August 4, 2026 [4][5][6][7] |
| Long-term Restaurant Goal | About 50,000 worldwide by end of 2027 [8][9] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 04, 2026
- Closes: September 04, 2026
Sources (13)
- 1McDonald's (MCD) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
- 2McDonald's Corporation: Company Events Publications and Financial Calendar | MCD | US5801351017 | MarketScreener UKuk.marketscreener.com
- 3McDonald's Corporation: Company Events Publications and Financial Calendar | MCD | US5801351017 | MarketScreener Indiain.marketscreener.com
- 4McDonald's (MCD) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call...public.com
- 5Documentcdn.yahoofinance.com
- 6McDonald - 10-Q quarterly report FY2026 Q1companiesmarketcap.com
- 7McDonald's global comparable sales growth in Q2 | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 8www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 9www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
- 10www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 11www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 12www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 13McDonald’s Beat Q1 2026 Estimates. Here’s What a $430 Target Means for MCD Stock | TIKR.comtikr.com