Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect McDonald's Corporation total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026 to be above 45800, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This contract is pricing the probability of McDonald's total systemwide restaurants exceeding a specific threshold in Q2 2026. The market has traded sideways within a narrow five-point range, moving from a 93.0% open to a current price of 90.0%. The peak probability was 94.0%. This price stability suggests traders have a high degree of certainty that the company will meet the target. The market's high probability is anchored by the company's Q1 2026 report, which listed 45,699 systemwide restaurants. The lack of significant price movement indicates no new information has emerged to challenge the baseline expectation of modest growth from that Q1 figure.
Total volume of 399 contracts indicates moderate but not aggressive participation. The low volatility across this volume suggests that buying and selling pressures have been balanced, with no significant directional conviction emerging to push the price out of its established range. The price chart shows short-term resistance near 94.0% and support around 89.0%. Overall market sentiment, as reflected by the consistently high probability, is that the outcome is a near certainty. The price action is that of a market waiting for confirmation of a widely expected result, rather than one actively debating an uncertain event.
  • Since last update (~24h): For "Above 46200", the model led a -23.2pp drop, flipping the edge.
  • The model also led a 13.3pp decline for "Above 46300", compressing the edge.
  • Overall confidence decreased by 1.0pp as the model's headline probability declined 3.8pp.
  • Systemwide restaurants likely exceed 46,100, driven by official 2026 net addition guidance.
  • Exceeding 46,200 remains uncertain given cautious franchisee sentiment and construction costs.
  • Reaching above 46,300 restaurants in Q2 2026 appears unlikely based on current projections.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Outcome Insufficient data

Current Context

McDonald's reported 45,699 systemwide restaurants as of March 31, 2026. This figure encompasses operations across 114 countries [^][^][^][^]. Of the total, 43,672 restaurants, approximately 95%, were franchised [^][^][^]. The remaining 2,027 restaurants were company-owned and operated [^][^][^].
Q2 2026 restaurant count data is not yet publicly available. As of July 14, 2026, McDonald's had not released its Q2 2026 financial results [^]. Consequently, the most recent publicly disclosed restaurant count data remains from the first quarter, ended March 31, 2026 [^].

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For this market, a YES resolution occurs if McDonald's Corporation's total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026 are above the specified numerical threshold (e.g., 45900, 46000, 46100). Conversely, a NO resolution is triggered if the total systemwide restaurants are at or below the stated threshold. Trading for this market ends on August 5, 7:00 am EDT, and no other special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability

Market Discussion

McDonald's Corporation has not yet announced its official Q2 2026 total systemwide restaurant count, as Q2 2026 financial results were not yet available as of July 14, 2026 [^][^][^]. The most recent confirmed figure is 45,699 systemwide restaurants worldwide as of March 31, 2026, reported in their Q1 2026 filings [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The company is executing a growth strategy that targets 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027, with 2,600 gross openings planned for 2026 [^][^].

4. Trader Dashboard

A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.

Above 45800PrimaryTrader TrustLiquidityMove Quality64ResolutionQuote RiskAvoid Risk
Move Quality64Mostly confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
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Above 45900Trader TrustLiquidityMove Quality39ResolutionQuote RiskAvoid Risk
Move Quality39Mixedhigh confidence
  • Factor
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Above 46000Trader TrustLiquidityMove QualityResolutionQuote RiskAvoid Risk
Move QualityNo significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above 46100Trader TrustLiquidityMove Quality67ResolutionQuote RiskAvoid Risk
Move Quality67Mostly confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
Above 46200Trader TrustLiquidityMove QualityResolutionQuote RiskAvoid Risk
Move QualityNo significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
Above 46300Trader TrustLiquidityMove Quality69ResolutionQuote RiskAvoid Risk
Move Quality69Mostly confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 14, 2026

5. What do recent franchisee surveys and Q1 2026 earnings commentary reveal about franchisee sentiment and its potential impact on new restaurant openings?

Franchisee sentiment rating1.37/5 (as of February 2026) [^][^][^][^][^]
Q1 2026 franchisee sentimentConstructive but cautious, appearing cautiously optimistic [^][^][^]
Target restaurant countAbout 50,000 by end-2027 [^][^][^]
McDonald's franchisee sentiment remains historically low, rated 1.37/5 as of February 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . This significant decline stems from ongoing tensions over pricing autonomy, corporate mandates for value menus, and increasing operational cost pressures, particularly inflation [^][^][^][^][^]. In contrast, management's Q1 2026 earnings commentary characterized franchisee sentiment as cautiously optimistic rather than exuberantly positive [^][^][^].
New restaurant openings face scrutiny due to high construction costs. While management asserts that sufficient financial 'firepower' exists for continued restaurant expansion, prioritizing locations with strong projected returns, the development pipeline is being re-evaluated [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Openings that no longer meet return thresholds could be removed from plans, emphasizing that franchisee economics are a critical factor that could slow new restaurant openings if construction costs remain elevated [^][^][^]. McDonald's still anticipates reaching approximately 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027 and sees significant global development opportunities, though 2026 expansion will likely be selective and economics-driven, primarily led by licensed international markets rather than an absolute growth number [^][^][^]. Corporate management is also assessing the balance between company-operated and franchised stores due to subpar corporate margins, potentially signaling future refranchising [^][^][^].

6. What strategic guidance from McDonald's' Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings calls could influence its pace of net restaurant openings?

Target Restaurant Count50,000 worldwide by end of 2027 [^][^][^]
Current Restaurant Count45,699 (Q1 2026) [^]
Net Restaurant Unit Sales Growth ContributionApproximately 2.5% for 2026 (constant currencies) [^][^][^][^]
McDonald's is strategically re-evaluating its restaurant ownership model. The company is actively reviewing the optimal balance between franchised and company-owned locations due to "unacceptable" U.S. company-operated restaurant margins, as highlighted during its Q1 2026 earnings call [^][^]. This strategic review will likely influence the pace and specific type of future net restaurant openings by potentially altering the company's approach to new unit ownership, particularly within the U.S. market.
Global expansion targets and channel priorities will drive future growth. McDonald's aims to achieve a total of 50,000 restaurants worldwide by the end of 2027, an ambitious goal that represents an accelerated unit growth strategy from the 45,699 locations reported in Q1 2026 [^][^][^][^]. This expansion is projected to contribute approximately 2.5% to McDonald's' Systemwide sales growth in constant currencies for the full year 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Investments supporting this growth are primarily directed towards new restaurant openings, alongside advancements in technology, digital initiatives, and Global Business Services [^][^][^]. The company also maintains confidence in the long-term growth potential within the Chinese market, despite macroeconomic pressures, which will likely influence new restaurant location choices [^][^][^]. Furthermore, McDonald's prioritizes digital, delivery, and drive-thru channels, influencing new restaurant design and location to optimize these service models [^]. This combination of ambitious global targets, strategic investments, market focus, and channel prioritization collectively guides McDonald's' pace of net restaurant openings.

7. How did McDonald's' net restaurant unit growth in 2025 and Q1 2026 compare to that of other global QSR giants like Yum! Brands and Restaurant Brands International?

McDonald's 2026 Net Additions2,100 (full year 2026) [^]
RBI Net Restaurant Growth2.6% (Q1 2026 trailing twelve months) [^]
Yum! Brands Q1 Unit Increase5% (gross new unit opening increase compared to prior year) [^][^][^]
Comparable unit growth data for 2025 and Q1 2026 is limited. Information regarding net restaurant unit growth for McDonald's, Yum! Brands, or Restaurant Brands International for 2025 is not available, and directly comparable Q1 2026 net unit growth figures are not explicitly provided for all companies. McDonald's reported a systemwide restaurant count of 45,699 as of March 31, 2026 [^]. For the full year 2026, the company anticipates approximately 2,100 net restaurant additions, which are projected to contribute around 2.5% to its systemwide sales growth for that year [^].
Restaurant Brands International and Yum. Brands reported distinct Q1 2026 unit growth. Restaurant Brands International (RBI) showed 2.6% net restaurant growth over the trailing twelve months as of Q1 2026 [^], achieving a system restaurant count of 32,985 by March 31, 2026 [^]. Yum! Brands posted 1,030 gross new unit openings during Q1 2026 [^][^]. These openings reflect a 5% increase in its total unit count compared to the prior year [^][^][^], bringing Yum! Brands' system restaurant count to 34,332 by March 31, 2026 [^][^].

8. What is the expected release date for McDonald's' Q2 2026 10-Q filing, and where in the report is the official systemwide restaurant count disclosed?

Q2 2026 Earnings Release DateAugust 4, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]
Restaurant Count Disclosure Filing10-Q filing [^][^][^]
Specific Restaurant Count LocationTable detailing 'Restaurants' within 'Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements' section of 10-Q filing [^][^][^]
McDonald's Q2 2026 earnings are expected on August 4, 2026. Stakeholders can anticipate the release of McDonald's Q2 2026 earnings report on this date, providing updates on the company's financial performance [^][^][^][^][^].
Systemwide restaurant count is in the 10-Q financial statements. The official systemwide restaurant count for McDonald's is typically disclosed within the 'Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements' section of their 10-Q filing. This specific information can be located in a dedicated table titled 'Restaurants' within that financial statement section [^][^][^].

9. What is the consensus among financial analysts for McDonald's net restaurant growth in Q2 2026, and how does this align with historical quarterly data?

Projected New Restaurants 20262,600 globally (full year) [^][^][^]
Estimated Q2 2026 Earnings ReleaseAugust 4, 2026 [^][^][^][^]
Long-term Restaurant GoalAbout 50,000 worldwide by end of 2027 [^][^]
Analyst consensus for McDonald's Q2 2026 restaurant growth is currently unavailable. Specific financial analyst consensus for McDonald's Q2 2026 net restaurant growth, as well as historical quarterly data for comparison, is not yet publicly available [^][^][^]. While detailed quarterly figures are pending, McDonald's anticipates adding approximately 2,600 new restaurants globally for the full year 2026 [^][^][^]. The official Q2 2026 earnings report, expected to be released on August 4, 2026, will likely provide these detailed quarterly figures [^][^][^][^].
McDonald's maintains a strong growth trajectory with aggressive expansion plans. As of May 28, 2026, there was a 60% likelihood of McDonald's reporting above 46,000 total systemwide restaurants for Q2 2026 [^]. This aligns with the company's reaffirmation of its long-term strategy to reach approximately 50,000 restaurants worldwide by the end of 2027 [^][^]. The projected 2,600 new restaurants for 2026 are expected to contribute around 2.5% to systemwide sales growth and represent a substantial addition to its existing base of over 45,000 restaurants, signaling a sustained aggressive expansion strategy [^][^][^][^].

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

McDonald's is expected to release its Q2 2026 financial results on or about August 4 or 5, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] . The Q2 2026 earnings report will provide Q2 2026 data on restaurant counts; the most recent confirmed figure is 45,699 total systemwide restaurants as of March 31, 2026 [^][^]. Prediction markets are actively tracking McDonald's Q2 2026 global comparable sales growth, with market resolution linked to exceeding 2% growth by September 4, 2026 [^]. This follows Q1 2026 global comparable sales that were up 3.8% and systemwide sales up 11% (6% constant currency) [^][^][^][^][^][^].
A significant upcoming catalyst is the Investor Day scheduled for September 23, 2026, in Chicago [^] . Here’s What a $430 Target Means for MCD Stock | TIKR.com" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. At this event, management is expected to discuss potential refranchising of U.S. company-operated stores and margin recovery strategies [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 04, 2026
  • Closes: September 04, 2026

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: McDonald's is expected to release its Q2 2026 financial results on or about August 4 or 5, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: The Q2 2026 earnings report will provide Q2 2026 data on restaurant counts; the most recent confirmed figure is 45,699 total systemwide restaurants as of March 31, 2026 [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: Prediction markets are actively tracking McDonald's Q2 2026 global comparable sales growth, with market resolution linked to exceeding 2% growth by September 4, 2026 [^] .
  • Trigger: This follows Q1 2026 global comparable sales that were up 3.8% and systemwide sales up 11% (6% constant currency) [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .

13. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.