McDonald's Corporation total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~24h): For "Above 46200", the model led a -23.2pp drop, flipping the edge.
- The model also led a 13.3pp decline for "Above 46300", compressing the edge.
- Overall confidence decreased by 1.0pp as the model's headline probability declined 3.8pp.
- Systemwide restaurants likely exceed 46,100, driven by official 2026 net addition guidance.
- Exceeding 46,200 remains uncertain given cautious franchisee sentiment and construction costs.
- Reaching above 46,300 restaurants in Q2 2026 appears unlikely based on current projections.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For this market, a YES resolution occurs if McDonald's Corporation's total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026 are above the specified numerical threshold (e.g., 45900, 46000, 46100). Conversely, a NO resolution is triggered if the total systemwide restaurants are at or below the stated threshold. Trading for this market ends on August 5, 7:00 am EDT, and no other special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
McDonald's Corporation has not yet announced its official Q2 2026 total systemwide restaurant count, as Q2 2026 financial results were not yet available as of July 14, 2026 [^][^][^]. The most recent confirmed figure is 45,699 systemwide restaurants worldwide as of March 31, 2026, reported in their Q1 2026 filings [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The company is executing a growth strategy that targets 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027, with 2,600 gross openings planned for 2026 [^][^].
4. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Above 45800PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality64Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Above 45900Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality39Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Above 46000Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Above 46100Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality67Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Above 46200Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Above 46300Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality69Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 14, 2026
5. What do recent franchisee surveys and Q1 2026 earnings commentary reveal about franchisee sentiment and its potential impact on new restaurant openings?
| Franchisee sentiment rating | 1.37/5 (as of February 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 franchisee sentiment | Constructive but cautious, appearing cautiously optimistic [^][^][^] |
| Target restaurant count | About 50,000 by end-2027 [^][^][^] |
6. What strategic guidance from McDonald's' Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings calls could influence its pace of net restaurant openings?
| Target Restaurant Count | 50,000 worldwide by end of 2027 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Current Restaurant Count | 45,699 (Q1 2026) [^] |
| Net Restaurant Unit Sales Growth Contribution | Approximately 2.5% for 2026 (constant currencies) [^][^][^][^] |
7. How did McDonald's' net restaurant unit growth in 2025 and Q1 2026 compare to that of other global QSR giants like Yum! Brands and Restaurant Brands International?
| McDonald's 2026 Net Additions | 2,100 (full year 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| RBI Net Restaurant Growth | 2.6% (Q1 2026 trailing twelve months) [^] |
| Yum! Brands Q1 Unit Increase | 5% (gross new unit opening increase compared to prior year) [^][^][^] |
8. What is the expected release date for McDonald's' Q2 2026 10-Q filing, and where in the report is the official systemwide restaurant count disclosed?
| Q2 2026 Earnings Release Date | August 4, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Restaurant Count Disclosure Filing | 10-Q filing [^][^][^] |
| Specific Restaurant Count Location | Table detailing 'Restaurants' within 'Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements' section of 10-Q filing [^][^][^] |
9. What is the consensus among financial analysts for McDonald's net restaurant growth in Q2 2026, and how does this align with historical quarterly data?
| Projected New Restaurants 2026 | 2,600 globally (full year) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Estimated Q2 2026 Earnings Release | August 4, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
| Long-term Restaurant Goal | About 50,000 worldwide by end of 2027 [^][^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 04, 2026
- Closes: September 04, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: McDonald's is expected to release its Q2 2026 financial results on or about August 4 or 5, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The Q2 2026 earnings report will provide Q2 2026 data on restaurant counts; the most recent confirmed figure is 45,699 total systemwide restaurants as of March 31, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets are actively tracking McDonald's Q2 2026 global comparable sales growth, with market resolution linked to exceeding 2% growth by September 4, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: This follows Q1 2026 global comparable sales that were up 3.8% and systemwide sales up 11% (6% constant currency) [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.