Reddit daily active uniques in Q2
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Reddit's daily active uniques in Q2 2026 to be above 128 million, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Reddit reported 126.8 million daily active uniques for Q1 2026.
- Independent analysis suggests Q2 2026 growth may surpass consensus estimates.
- New advertising tools and passkey deployment support continued user expansion.
- Q1 2026 user growth significantly outperformed social media peers.
- Q1-Q2 daily active unique user growth is projected to slow significantly.
- Reddit is expected to report Q2 2026 results on August 11, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| above 136 million | 3.0% | 4.1% | Reddit's strong Q1 DAU and new tools suggest Q2 user expansion will surpass estimates. |
| above 135 million | 5.0% | 6.7% | Reddit's strong Q1 DAU and new tools suggest Q2 user expansion will surpass estimates. |
| above 133 million | 10.0% | 12.9% | Reddit's strong Q1 DAU and new tools suggest Q2 user expansion will surpass estimates. |
| above 128 million | 99.0% | 99.1% | Reddit's strong Q1 DAU and new tools suggest Q2 user expansion will surpass estimates. |
| above 130 million | 77.0% | 83.0% | Independent analysis suggests Q2 growth will surpass estimates, making higher mid-range thresholds achievable. |
Current Context
Reddit has not yet released Q2 2026 daily active unique data. As of June 25, 2026, Reddit's daily active unique (DAUq) data for the second quarter (Q2) 2026 remains unreleased publicly. The most recent available DAUq figure is 126.8 million for Q1 2026, which Reddit reported on April 30, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^].
Q2 2026 financial results are anticipated in late July. Reddit is expected to release its Q2 2026 financial results around July 30, 2026 [^][^]. The company provided Q2 2026 financial guidance in its Q1 2026 earnings report. Revenue is projected between $715 million and $725 million, with Adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $285 million and $295 million [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market is pricing a high probability that Reddit's daily active uniques for Q2 2026 will exceed 128 million. The contract has traded sideways in a very narrow band between 96.0% and 99.0%. The price held at 96.0% until a recent move to 99.0% on June 25. This price action suggests strong and stable confidence in a "YES" resolution. The 96.0% level has acted as a floor for the contract's entire history.
The market's high valuation is anchored by Reddit's reported Q1 2026 daily active uniques of 126.8 million, a figure close to the contract's 128 million threshold. The price implies a firm market expectation of modest user growth from the first to the second quarter. The recent price increase to 99.0% does not appear to be driven by new public data, as Q2 figures remain unreleased.
Trading volume is exceptionally low, with only one contract traded in total. This thin liquidity means the price level may not reflect a broad consensus and can be moved by minimal activity. The lack of volume suggests low participation and conviction, despite the high probability implied by the price. The chart indicates a market expecting a specific outcome but with little capital committed to the position.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Reddit Inc. reports greater than 131,500,000 daily active uniques for Q2 2026, as verified by Fiscal.ai; otherwise, it resolves NO. The market opened on May 21, 2026, and will close when the outcome occurs, or by August 29, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT if the event doesn't occur earlier. Payouts are projected 30 minutes after closing, and insider trading by employees of Source Agencies or those with material, non-public information is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| above 128 million | $0.99 | $0.06 | 99% |
| above 129 million | $0.90 | $0.15 | 89% |
| above 130 million | $0.78 | $0.27 | 77% |
| above 131 million | $0.66 | $0.39 | 66% |
| Above 131.5 million | $0.48 | $0.58 | 41% |
| above 132 million | $0.26 | $0.77 | 22% |
| above 133 million | $0.14 | $0.91 | 10% |
| above 135 million | $0.08 | $0.97 | 5% |
| above 134 million | $0.10 | $0.95 | 4% |
| above 136 million | $0.05 | $0.98 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Reddit reported 126.8 million Daily Active Uniques (DAUq) for Q1 2026, marking a 17% year-over-year increase [^][^]. As of late May 2026, prediction markets featured contracts focusing on whether Reddit's Q2 2026 DAUq would exceed 131 million [^]. Trader commentary highlights DAUq growth as a primary leading indicator for user engagement amidst AI data licensing initiatives [^][^].
4. What major product launches or content partnerships did Reddit execute in Q2 2026 that could drive user growth?
| Ad Tools Announcement | Q2 2026 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Passkey Deployment | Q2 2026 [^] |
| U.S. Daily User Target | 100 million (as of Q1 2026 end) [^][^] |
Reddit introduced several new advertising tools as product launches in Q2 2026. Announced in June 2026 during Cannes Lions, these new advertising tools are powered by Reddit Community Intelligence and include a free-form ad generator (Beta), tailored creative assets (Beta, exclusive to Max Campaigns), Redditor Highlights (General Availability), and Shopping Listing Ads (Alpha) [^][^]. These product enhancements were part of broader efforts to boost user engagement and expand advertising capabilities.
Passkey deployment further supported user growth, aligning with Reddit's strategy. Throughout Q2 2026, Reddit strategically rolled out passkeys to enhance security and streamline the login experience, directly supporting the objective of increasing the number of logged-in daily users [^]. No information was provided regarding any content partnerships executed by Reddit during this period [^][^][^]. These initiatives align with Reddit's overarching strategic focus as of the end of Q1 2026, which aims to expand its U.S. daily user base toward a target of 100 million by improving product quality, user retention, and search capabilities [^][^].
5. How did Reddit's user growth in Q1 2026 compare to that of social media peers like Meta and Snap?
| Reddit Q1 2026 DAUq | 126.8 million, 17% YoY increase [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Meta March 2026 DAP | 3.56 billion, 4% YoY increase [^][^] |
| Snap Q1 2026 DAU | 483 million, 5% YoY increase [^][^] |
Reddit significantly outperformed peers in user growth during Q1 2026. The platform reported 126.8 million global daily active unique users (DAUq) in the first quarter of 2026, representing a substantial 17% year-over-year increase [^][^]. This growth highlighted Reddit's stronger user acquisition performance compared to its major social media counterparts in the same period.
Meta experienced a rare user decline while Snap rebounded modestly. Meta's family daily active people (DAP) reached 3.56 billion in March 2026, a 4% year-over-year increase [^][^]. However, Meta also faced its first-ever user decline across its combined applications, showing a 5% sequential decrease from Q4 2025, primarily attributed to geopolitical disruptions in Iran and Russia [^][^]. In contrast, Snap reported 483 million global daily active users (DAU) in Q1 2026, achieving a 5% year-over-year increase [^][^]. This represented a rebound for Snap after experiencing a sequential decline in the previous quarter [^][^].
6. What has been Reddit's historical quarter-over-quarter DAUq growth rate from Q1 to Q2 in previous years?
| Q1-Q2 DAUq Growth Rate 2024 | 10.3% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q1-Q2 DAUq Growth Rate 2025 | 2.1% [^][^] |
| Q2 2024 DAUq | 91.2M [^][^] |
Reddit's Q1-Q2 daily active unique users (DAUq) growth rate is projected to slow significantly [^] [^] . In 2024, the quarter-over-quarter DAUq growth from Q1 to Q2 was approximately 10.3%. However, this growth is expected to decelerate substantially, with a forecast rate of approximately 2.1% for the corresponding period in 2025 [^][^].
Specific DAUq figures reveal a substantial reduction in growth trajectory [^] [^] . In 2024, Reddit's DAUq increased from 82.7 million in Q1 to 91.2 million in Q2. For 2025, the DAUq is forecast to rise from 108.1 million in Q1 to 110.4 million in Q2, underscoring a notable decrease in the quarter-over-quarter expansion rate [^][^].
7. What did Reddit's Q1 2026 earnings report reveal about the breakdown between U.S. and international user growth?
| Global Daily Active Uniques (DAUq) | 126.8 million (Q1 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| U.S. DAUq | 53.5 million (Q1 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
| International DAUq | 73.3 million (Q1 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
Reddit's Q1 2026 earnings showed robust global user growth. The company reported a significant increase in its global Daily Active Uniques (DAUq), which grew by 17% year-over-year to 126.8 million. This expansion was largely driven by international markets, where International DAUq surged by 26% to reach 73.3 million. Comparatively, U.S. DAUq experienced a 7% increase, totaling 53.5 million users [^][^][^][^].
These Q1 results inform a Q2 prediction market. The reported performance metrics for Q1 2026 are relevant to a prediction market on Kalshi regarding 'Reddit daily active uniques in Q2'. This particular market covers the Q2 2026 period and is scheduled to resolve by August 29, 2026 [^].
8. How might Reddit's focus on data licensing for AI training in 2026 impact user sentiment and engagement metrics?
| Q1 2026 Daily Active Uniques (DAUq) | 126.8 million (Q1 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Other Revenue growth (AI licensing) | 15% year-over-year [^] |
| Other Revenue growth (year prior) | 66% year-over-year [^] |
Reddit navigates user concerns amidst a strengthening legal landscape for AI licensing. The company faces a fundamental tension with its AI data licensing strategy, as users are increasingly wary of being perceived as unpaid labor for AI models [^][^]. This challenge persists despite Reddit's efforts to integrate AI-powered advertising tools that align with existing discussion topics, aiming to preserve community authenticity [^][^]. Concurrently, the legal environment has strengthened for Reddit, following a favorable Anthropic ruling that provides a more stable framework for future content monetization and AI partnerships [^][^].
Engagement metrics show strong growth, though user conversion remains a concern. Reddit reported 126.8 million Daily Active Uniques (DAUq) in Q1 2026, marking a 17% year-over-year increase [^]. Independent market analysis forecasts that Q2 2026 DAUq growth will surpass consensus estimates [^][^]. However, concerns exist regarding the conversion rate of weekly to daily users [^][^].
AI licensing revenue growth decelerated, prompting market speculation about its future. In terms of revenue, "Other Revenue," which encompasses AI licensing, experienced a significant deceleration to 15% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026 [^]. This represents a substantial drop from 66% a year prior [^]. This deceleration has led to market speculation about whether these deals are reaching a pricing ceiling or if initial licensing waves have been fully annualized [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Reddit is expected to report its Q2 2026 financial results, including Daily Active Uniques (DAUq) data, on August 11, 2026 [^] . Here’s What the Data Says | TIKR.com" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. Q2 2026 DAUq is considered a primary key performance indicator; growth at or above 17% year-over-year is seen as a bullish catalyst, while any sign of stagnation or a miss on this metric is expected to be a major bearish catalyst [^]. The company's key financial targets for Q2 2026 include revenue between $715 million and $725 million and adjusted EBITDA between $285 million and $295 million [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 29, 2026
- Closes: August 29, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Reddit is expected to report its Q2 2026 financial results, including Daily Active Uniques (DAUq) data, on August 11, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Q2 2026 DAUq is considered a primary key performance indicator; growth at or above 17% year-over-year is seen as a bullish catalyst, while any sign of stagnation or a miss on this metric is expected to be a major bearish catalyst [^] .
- Trigger: The company's key financial targets for Q2 2026 include revenue between $715 million and $725 million and adjusted EBITDA between $285 million and $295 million [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Beyond the Q2 earnings, major catalysts impacting Reddit's stock involve the competitive threat from Meta's Forum app, the scale of performance-based advertising through Reddit Max, international expansion efforts, and developments in AI data licensing [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 11 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRDDT-26APRDAU-129000000: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXRDDT-26APRDAU-127000000: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXRDDT-26APRDAU-136000000: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXRDDT-26APRDAU-134000000: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXRDDT-26APRDAU-132000000: NO (May 01, 2026)
