Reddit daily active uniques in 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~24h): The model's probability for "Above 142 million" increased by +8.3pp (model_led), compressing the edge.
- The overall model probability rose +0.7pp as the market edge compressed by +0.7pp.
- Confidence score increased by +1.0pp, now standing at 8.0.
- Reddit DAUq likely exceeds 136 million given Q1 2026 data and 17% YoY growth.
- H2 2026 product and global expansion initiatives may drive DAUq further above 138 million.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 138 million | 83.0% | 75.8% | Market higher by 7.2pp |
| Above 154 million | 3.0% | 0.7% | Market higher by 2.3pp |
| Above 144 million | 36.0% | 25.8% | Market higher by 10.2pp |
| Above 142 million | 43.0% | 39.3% | Market higher by 3.7pp |
| Above 136 million | 90.0% | 94.0% | Model higher by 4.0pp |
Current Context
Sources (11)
- 1Reddit Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.redditinc.com
- 2Q1'26 Shareholder Letters203.q4cdn.com
- 3Reddit Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultss203.q4cdn.com
- 4Documentsec.gov
- 5Reddit Reports A 75% Boost In Q1 Ad Revenue As It Reaches For 100 Million Daily US Usersadexchanger.com
- 6www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
- 7www.businessinsider.comOctagon Agentbusinessinsider.com
- 8www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 9www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 10www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 11www.fastcompany.comOctagon Agentfastcompany.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Reddit Inc. reports over 142,000,000 daily active uniques for 2026; otherwise, it resolves NO. The outcome is verified from Fiscal.ai. Trading will close early if the event occurs, or by March 31, 2028, at 1:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading is prohibited for those employed by source agencies or holding material, non-public information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 136 million | $0.95 | $1.00 | 90% |
| Above 138 million | $0.82 | $0.24 | 83% |
| Above 140 million | $0.59 | $0.99 | 56% |
| Above 142 million | $0.46 | $1.00 | 43% |
| Above 144 million | $0.36 | $1.00 | 36% |
| Above 146 million | $0.24 | $1.00 | 25% |
| Above 148 million | $0.99 | $1.00 | 13% |
| Above 154 million | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Above 152 million | $0.99 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Above 150 million | $0.99 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Sources (6)
4. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
5. What product initiatives or international expansion efforts scheduled for H2 2026 could act as catalysts for Reddit's user growth?
| Q1 2026 Global Daily Active Uniques | 126.8 million [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| International DAUq Year-over-Year Growth | 26% [1][2][3] |
| Predicted 2026 Daily Active Uniques | 136-140 million (some up to 142 million) [4] |
Sources (7)
- 1Documentsec.gov
- 2Reddit Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.redditinc.com
- 3Reddit Statistics 2026: Revenue, Users, Growth & AI Licensing Data - Axis Intelligenceaxis-intelligence.com
- 4Reddit daily active uniques in 2026 | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 5Q1'26 Shareholder Letters203.q4cdn.com
- 6RDDT Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Platform Aeronaut Transcriptstranscripts.platformaeronaut.com
- 7Reddit (RDDT) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
6. How does Reddit's user growth rate in H1 2026 compare to that of its social media peers, such as Snap Inc. and Pinterest?
| Reddit Q1 2026 Global DAUq | 126.8 million [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Snap Inc. Q1 2026 Global DAU | 483 million [6][7] |
| Pinterest Q1 2026 Global MAU | 631 million [8][9][10][11][12][13][14] |
Sources (15)
- 1Documentsec.gov
- 2Q1'26 Shareholder Letters203.q4cdn.com
- 3Reddit Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 4Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) 10-Q Quarterly Report April 2026last10k.com
- 5Reddit Reports A 75% Boost In Q1 Ad Revenue As It Reaches For 100 Million Daily US Usersadexchanger.com
- 6Snap Inc. Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 7Snapchat daily active users 2026statista.com
- 8Pinterest Announces First Quarter 2026 Results, Delivers 18% Revenue Growth, Record Users, and Approximately $2 Billion of Share Repurchases | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
- 9seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
- 10www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 11www.proactiveinvestors.comOctagon Agentproactiveinvestors.com
- 12www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 13www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 14www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 15Reddit daily active uniques in 2026 | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
7. According to CEO Steve Huffman's recent commentary, what are Reddit's primary strategies for converting logged-out visitors into daily active users in 2026?
| U.S. DAUq Target | 100 million [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Global DAUq (Q1 2026) | 126.8 million [1][4][5] |
| Separate DAUq Reporting End | After Q2 2026 [1][4][5] |
Sources (7)
- 1Q1'26 Shareholder Letters203.q4cdn.com
- 2Reddit (RDDT) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript - AOLaol.com
- 3Reddit Reports A 75% Boost In Q1 Ad Revenue As It Reaches For 100 Million Daily US Usersadexchanger.com
- 4Q4'25 Shareholder Letters203.q4cdn.com
- 5RDDT Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Platform Aeronaut Transcriptstranscripts.platformaeronaut.com
- 6RDDT (Trans): After Search, Feed Is the LT Monetization Driver - Longbridgelongbridge.com
- 7How Reddit CEO Steve Huffman got the upper hand with AI - Fast Companyfastcompany.com
8. Which sections of Reddit's upcoming Q2 and Q3 2026 SEC filings will contain the official DAUq data needed to track this market?
| Q2 2026 Financial Results Announcement | Thursday, July 30, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Primary DAUq Data Location | MD&A section of Form 10-Q filing [2][3][4] |
| Secondary DAUq Data Location | Shareholder letter [5][1] |
Sources (5)
- 1Reddit - Reddit to Announce Second Quarter Results on Thursday, July 30, 2026investor.redditinc.com
- 2Reddit, Inc. (Form: 10-Q, Received: 10/31/2025 06:02:30)otcmarkets.com
- 3Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) 10-Q Quarterly Report July 2025last10k.com
- 4Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) 10-Q Quarterly Report October 2025last10k.com
- 5Reddit Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.redditinc.com
9. How might Reddit's 2026 data licensing agreements with AI companies like Google affect user acquisition and engagement trends?
| DAUq (Q1 2026) | 126.8 million (up 17% YoY) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] |
|---|---|
| Weekly Active Uniques (Q1 2026) | 493.1 million (up 23% YoY) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] |
| Licensing Deals Impact on DAUq | Not shown to have caused a measurable step-up [2][3][4][5][6][7] |
Sources (14)
- 1Reddit Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.redditinc.com
- 2RDDT_Q12026, Page: 6Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 3RDDT_Q12026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 4RDDT_Q12026, Page: 8Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 5RDDT_Q12026, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 6RDDT_Q12026, Page: 9Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 7RDDT_Q12026, Page: 7Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 8Reddit Is Powering The World's AI Models — And Its Google, OpenAI Deals May Only Be The Start - Reddit (N - Benzingabenzinga.com
- 9Reddit, Google Discuss Expanding AI Collaboration: Reportbizbrief.ie
- 10Reddit CEO: AI Models Rely on Reddit Data for Trainingtechwyse.com
- 11Reddit Is Training The Robots | AdExchangeradexchanger.com
- 12Live from Cannes 2026: Real Conversations are Driving the New Consumer Decision Journeyredditinc.com
- 13Reddit CEO delivers bold warning to Google and OpenAI - AOLaol.com
- 14Reddit Inc's 2026 Q1 Earnings Call: Infrastructure Timelines and Ad Max Onboarding Strategies Contradict Prior Statementsainvest.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts and Risks
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 31, 2028
- Closes: March 31, 2028
Sources (8)
- 1Reddit Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.redditinc.com
- 2Q1'26 Shareholder Letters203.q4cdn.com
- 3Reddit Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultss203.q4cdn.com
- 4Reddit (RDDT) AI Data Push Puts Valuation Back In Focus - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
- 5Reddit Stock (RDDT) Opinions on Recent Breakout | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com
- 6Reddit Stock Price Today | Why RDDT Climbs on AI Licensingphemex.com
- 7Reddit (RDDT) Stock Price Prediction 2026, 2027 & 2030: Analyst Targets & CoinCodex Forecast • Benzingabenzinga.com
- 8Reddit Q1'26 Earnings Call Transcripts203.q4cdn.com