Snap average daily active users in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Above 488 million DAU is likely, given Q1 2026's 483M and emerging market growth.
- Above 492 million faces challenge from expected North American decline, incremental product impact.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 492 million | 77.0% | 44.2% | Market higher by 32.8pp |
| Above 500 million | 42.0% | 12.7% | Market higher by 29.3pp |
| Above 496 million | 50.0% | 17.2% | Market higher by 32.8pp |
| Above 504 million | 17.0% | 10.3% | Market higher by 6.7pp |
| Above 508 million | 3.0% | 3.7% | Model higher by 0.7pp |
Current Context
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 488 million
📈 July 30, 2026: 58.0pp spike
Price increased from 28.0% to 86.0%
Outcome: Above 492 million
📈 July 29, 2026: 48.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 49.0%
Sources (9)
- 1Snap Inc. Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.snap.com
- 2Snap Inc (SNAP) 8-K Earnings Release - May 2026last10k.com
- 3Snapchat Statistics 2026: Users, Revenue and Ad Datadigitalapplied.com
- 4SNAP_Q12026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 5SNAP_Q12026, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 6Snap Inc Q1-2026 Investor Letters25.q4cdn.com
- 7Snap Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) Shares at $4.35: 80% of Q1 Growth Driven by Non-Advertising Revenuets2.tech
- 8Snap daily active users in Q2 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 9Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacentersyoutube.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi prediction market will resolve "YES" if Snap's average daily active users in fiscal year 2026 are reported to be above 496 million. Conversely, it will resolve "NO" if the reported average daily active users for fiscal 2026 are 496 million or less. The market ends on February 4, 4:00 PM EST, and the maximum payout date is May 5, 2027. No specific special settlement conditions are provided in the content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 488 million | $0.95 | $0.10 | 92% |
| Above 492 million | $0.85 | $0.24 | 77% |
| Above 496 million | $0.60 | $0.47 | 50% |
| Above 500 million | $0.43 | $0.66 | 42% |
| Above 504 million | $0.31 | $0.79 | 17% |
| Above 508 million | $0.17 | $0.91 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Traders generally expect Snap's average daily active users to exceed 492 million in fiscal 2026, with a 62% probability for this outcome. However, there is significant skepticism regarding higher growth, as the probability for exceeding 496 million has dropped to 28%, and for 500 million to 21%. This suggests a market consensus that while Snap will maintain its user base above 492 million, substantial further growth is considered unlikely.
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. How might Snap's 2026 initiatives in AI-powered features and hardware, such as new Spectacles, impact user acquisition and engagement compared to previous product launches?
| Snap Map "Now Playing" launch | July 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| SPECS AR glasses launch | Late 2026 [7][8][9][10] |
| SPECS AR glasses price | $2,195 (as of mid-2026) [7][8][11] |
Sources (13)
- 1www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 2techcrunch.comOctagon Agent
- 3www.marketbeat.comOctagon Agentmarketbeat.com
- 4www.proactiveinvestors.comOctagon Agentproactiveinvestors.com
- 5www.proactiveinvestors.comOctagon Agentproactiveinvestors.com
- 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 7Snap to Launch New Lightweight, Immersive Specs in 2026newsroom.snap.com
- 8Introducing SPECS Augmented Reality Glassesnewsroom.snap.com
- 9https://finance.biggo.com/quote/SNAP/earnings-call?t=US_SNAP_2026-05-06finance.biggo.com
- 10Snap Inc. Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.snap.com
- 11Evan Spiegel says Snap can’t fulfill its mission without its new AR glasses - Fast Company Middle East | The future of tech, business and innovation.fastcompanyme.com
- 12Why the Best Venture Capital Funds Stay Smallyoutube.com
- 13Snap issues cautious guidance as Perplexity deal ends...cnbc.com
7. How does Snap's daily active user growth in key emerging markets, particularly India and Southeast Asia, compare with that of TikTok and Instagram Reels throughout 2026?
| Snap Q1 2026 Global DAU | 483 million [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Snap Q1 2026 Rest of World DAU Growth | 12% [1][2][3] |
| Snap India User Base | Over 214–250 million [2][4][5][6] |
Sources (7)
- 1Snap Inc. - Snap Inc. Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.snap.com
- 2Snapchat Statistics 2026: Users, Revenue and Ad Datadigitalapplied.com
- 3Snap Q1 2026: revenue up 12% to $1.53B as AI ad tools drive conversion gainsppc.land
- 4How Many People Use Snapchat Daily in 2026?theplanetsoft.com
- 5Snapchat Statistics 2026: Users, Revenue, AR & Advertising Data - Axis Intelligenceaxis-intelligence.com
- 6Snapchat Statistics 2026: 946M Users, $5.9B Revenue & AR Dominance Data - AutoFaceless Blogautofaceless.ai
- 7Snap daily active users in Q2 — Kalshi Odds & Insights | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
8. What has Snap's management, including CEO Evan Spiegel, stated in their Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings calls regarding specific drivers and headwinds for DAU growth for the remainder of the fiscal year?
| Q1 2026 Expected DAU Growth Driver | Product and engagement improvements (Q1 2026 earnings call) [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| North American DAU Q2 2026 Expectation | Approximately 1 million sequential decline (Q1 2026 earnings call) [7][8][9][10][1][2][3][4][5][6] |
| Geopolitical Headwind Duration | Expected to remain a drag into Q2 2026 (Q1 2026 earnings call) [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
Sources (10)
- 1SNAP_Q12026, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 2SNAP_Q12026, Page: 6Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 3SNAP_Q12026, Page: 7Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 4SNAP_Q12026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 5SNAP_Q12026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 6SNAP_Q12026, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 7snap inc. q1 2026 quarterly earnings call transcripts25.q4cdn.com
- 8Snap (SNAP) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
- 9Snap (SNAP) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
- 10Snap Inc. (SNAP UN) Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript - May 6, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
9. Where can traders find reliable quarterly data on Snap's daily active user (DAU) breakdown by region (North America, Europe, Rest of World) for fiscal 2026?
| Q1 2026 Global Average DAUs | 483 million [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 North America DAU | 92 million [7][8][9] |
| Q1 2026 Europe DAU | 97 million [7][8][9] |
Sources (10)
- 1Snap Inc (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 28Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 2Snap Inc (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 27Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 3Snap Inc (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 29Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 4Snap Inc (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 30Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 5Snap Inc (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 7Snap Inc. Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.snap.com
- 8Snap Inc (SNAP) 8-K Earnings Release - May 2026last10k.com
- 9Snap Inc. Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 10Snap Inc Q1-2026 Investor Letters25.q4cdn.com
10. How could potential changes to Snap's creator monetization programs and Spotlight platform in 2026 affect content creator output and, in turn, influence daily user engagement?
| Spotlight View Time for Max Rewards | 100 hours over 28 days [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Creator Subscriptions Launch | February 2026 [4][5] |
| Global Daily Active Users (Q1 2026) | 483 million [6][7][8][9] |
Sources (11)
- 1About Snapchat's Monetization Programhelp.snapchat.com
- 2Snapchat Creator Stories Monetizationcreators.snapchat.com
- 3Snapchat Spotlight 2026: Creator Monetization + Disclosureauditsocials.com
- 4Snapchat Launches Creator Subscriptions to Deepen Fan Engagement and Power Scalable Creator Revenuenewsroom.snap.com
- 5Snap to launch creator subscriptions in push to diversify revenuecnbc.com
- 6Snap Inc. Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.snap.com
- 7Snapchat daily active users 2026statista.com
- 8Snapchat Statistics 2026: Users, Revenue and Ad Datadigitalapplied.com
- 9Snapchat Statistics 2026: Users, Revenue, AR & Advertising Data - Axis Intelligenceaxis-intelligence.com
- 10Snapchat Expands Creator Offerings Through Partnership...mediapost.com
- 11Snapchat Report Highlights Effectiveness of Creator Content for Brands - Global Dating Insightsglobaldatinginsights.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 05, 2027
- Closes: May 05, 2027
Sources (9)
- 1Snap Inc. Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.snap.com
- 2Snap Inc Q1-2026 Investor Letters25.q4cdn.com
- 3Snap Q1 2026 results: revenue up 12% | SNAP Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
- 4Snap daily active users in Q2 | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 5Snap daily active users in Q2 — Kalshi Odds & Insights | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6Snap Stock Fell 56% From Its Peak. A $500 Million Cost Cut Could Signal Recovery. | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 7Snap Inc. (SNAP) Stock Analysis 2026: Reduce Rating & DCF Valuationalcapitaladvisory.com
- 8Snap Inc. Price Prediction 2026: Can Specs and Cost Cuts Help SNAP Rebound After a 40%+ Decline?bingx.com
- 9Snap Stock Has Fallen 51% in 2026. Is the EU Probe a Buying Opportunity? | TIKR.comtikr.com