Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Life360 monthly active users to be Above 109 million in fiscal 2026, with 75.4% model probability versus 0.0% market probability. This divergence is driven by Life360's reiterated fiscal 2026 MAU guidance of 112.1 million to 115.0 million, supported by current MAU of 102.4 million and anticipated second-half growth.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market for Life360's fiscal 2026 monthly active users (MAU) experienced a singular, sharp repricing event. The probability started at 1.0% on August 12, 2026, before spiking to the 64-96% range where it has since stabilized. The current price of 96.0% indicates a very high probability that the company's MAU will exceed 109 million.
The repricing directly followed Life360's Q2 2026 results announcement. The company reported 102.4 million global MAU as of June 30, 2026, with 4.6 million net additions in the second quarter alone. This Q2 figure places the company within striking distance of the 109 million threshold with two quarters remaining in the fiscal year. The market price immediately adjusted to reflect the high likelihood of the company achieving the target, given its reported user growth trajectory.
Critically, total traded volume in this market is zero. The price movements do not reflect trades between participants but rather adjustments by the market's internal pricing mechanism in response to new data. Consequently, there are no meaningful support or resistance levels established by trading activity. The chart's price action represents a theoretical probability assessment based on the Q2 earnings data, not demonstrated market conviction through capital deployment.
  • Outcomes above 111 million are likely, supported by 102.4 million MAU in Q2 2026.
  • Life360 reiterates 112.1-115.0 million MAU guidance, driven by H2 2026 growth.
  • Outcomes above 115.0 million face headwinds from new mobile location controls.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 114 million 23.0% 12.0% Market higher by 11.0pp
Above 113 million 35.0% 12.0% Market higher by 23.0pp
Above 115 million 10.0% 0.0% Market higher by 10.0pp
Above 109 million 98.0% 75.4% Market higher by 22.6pp
Above 110 million 90.0% 75.4% Market higher by 14.6pp

Current Context

Life360 exceeded 102 million MAU in Q2 2026. As of June 30, 2026, the company reported approximately 102.4 million global Monthly Active Users, following 4.6 million net additions in the second quarter of 2026 [1][2]. For Q2 2026, Life360 recorded total revenue of $159.0 million, a 38% year-over-year increase. Advertising revenue grew 315% year-over-year to $22.0 million, and adjusted EBITDA reached $31.1 million, up 53% year-over-year [1][3][2].
Life360's share price declined despite maintained full-year guidance. The company upheld its full-year 2026 guidance for consolidated revenue ($650 million to $685 million) and adjusted EBITDA ($130 million to $140 million) [4][5][6]. This led to a share price drop as investors had expected stronger growth projections. Despite the post-earnings decline, equity analysts generally maintain "buy" ratings on Life360, with price targets often implying significant upside potential over the next 12 months [4][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Life360 Reports Record Q2 2026 Resultsinvestors.life360.com
  2. 2Life360 Reports Record Q2 2026 Revenue of $159.0 Million, Surpasses 102 Million Monthly Active Userskalkine.com.au
  3. 3Life360 posts Q2 2026 profit on revenue jump | LIF Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  4. 4Here's what brokers tip for Life360 shares over the next 12 monthsfool.com.au
  5. 5After crashing 19% this broker says Life360 shares are a buyfool.com.au
  6. 6Life360 Stock Fell 25% After Earnings. Here's Where...tikr.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 12, 2026: 63.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 64.0%

Outcome: Above 109 million

What happened: The provided web research does not contain information explaining a 63.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for Life360's monthly active users (MAU) reaching "Above 109 million" on August 12, 2026. The most recent relevant announcement, Life360's Q2 2026 results released on August 11, 2026, reported approximately 102.4 million MAU and led to a stock decline, not a positive market movement for exceeding 109 million MAU [1][2]. There is no evidence of social media activity, breaking news, or market structure factors in the provided sources that would drive this specific price spike [3]. Without additional information, the primary driver cannot be identified from the given data.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Life360 Reports Record Q2 2026 Resultsinvestors.life360.com
  2. 2Life360 Stock Plunges 26% Despite Record Revenue As Investors Balk At Unchanged Full-Year Guidanceibtimes.com.au
  3. 3www.gurufocus.comOctagon Agentgurufocus.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For each contract, the "YES" position resolves if Life360's Global Monthly Active Users (MAU) in fiscal 2026 exceeds the specific millions threshold stated in the contract; otherwise, the "NO" position resolves if the MAU is less than or equal to that threshold. Trading for these markets concludes on February 26, 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of May 27, 2027. Resolution is based on Life360's reported Global MAU for fiscal 2026, and no other special settlement conditions are explicitly detailed.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 109 million $0.99 $0.07 98%
Above 110 million $0.97 $0.11 90%
Above 111 million $0.85 $0.24 75%
Above 113 million $0.43 $0.64 35%
Above 114 million $0.26 $0.83 23%
Above 115 million $0.13 $0.95 10%
Above 112 million $0.65 $0.44 0%

Market Discussion

Life360 reported approximately 97.8 million global Monthly Active Users (MAU) in Q1 2026 and grew to approximately 102.4 million MAU in Q2 2026, reflecting 17% and 16% year-over-year growth, respectively [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Following the Q2 2026 results on August 11, 2026, the company's stock experienced a significant decline (19% to 25%), as market commentary indicated investor frustration that record revenue did not lead to an upward revision of the full-year MAU growth forecast of 17% to 20%, and concerns arose regarding decelerating user growth and profitability [5][7][8][9][10].

Sources (10)
  1. 1Life360 Reports Record Q2 2026 Resultsinvestors.life360.com
  2. 2Life360 Reports Record Q2 2026 Resultsinvestors.life360.com
  3. 3Life360 Q2'26 presentation: 100M users, revenue up 38%investing.com
  4. 4Life360 Reports Record Q1 2026 Resultsinvestors.life360.com
  5. 5Life360 Reports Record Q1 2026 Resultsglobenewswire.com
  6. 6Life360, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q2, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  7. 7Life360 Shares Sink 24% Despite Reporting Record Revenue, 2026 Forecast Disappointsts2.tech
  8. 8Life360 Stock Fell 25% After Earnings. Here’s Where Shares Could Go in 2026 | TIKR.comtikr.com
  9. 9Life360 (360) Beats Earnings, Shares Drop 19%stockwirex.com
  10. 10Life360 (ASX:360) Shares Drift As Margin Questions Cloud Growth - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 63 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score70Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score35High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score63Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
86Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXLIFA-27FEBMAU-113,000,000 carried 36% of its $67 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 34d old)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesPrice moves carried real volume. Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
43Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

3 contracts · worst first · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 113 million43
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 114 million—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 115 million—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

3 contracts · worst first · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 113 million—
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Above 114 million—
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Above 115 million—
No trading in 3d

No trades in the last 3d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

3 contracts · worst first · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 113 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 114 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 115 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
35High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 43 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 6.8c slippage (~17% of a 39.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

4 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 113 million43Market scoreLiquidity43Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 43
Liquidity
43 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 114 million–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 115 million–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 3d

No trades in the last 3d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 26, 2026

6. What are Life360's primary growth initiatives for H2 2026, and what is their projected impact on monthly active user acquisition?

Projected FY26 MAU Growth17% to 20% year-over-year [1][2]
Global MAU (June 30, 2026)102.4 million [2][3]
Q2 2026 Net MAU Additions4.6 million [2][3]
Life360 is focusing on key growth initiatives for late 2026. The company's primary growth initiatives for the second half of 2026 include strategic international expansion, specifically targeting markets such as Brazil, Mexico, and Germany [4][2]. Additionally, Life360 plans to scale its advertising platform to capitalize on its strongest seasonal period and accelerate product innovation [4][2]. This innovation will focus on developing features for new life stages, including pet owners and aging parents, and integrating advancements from its AI laboratory projects [4][2].
The company expects significant MAU growth, particularly in the second half. Life360 has maintained its guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting an overall global monthly active user (MAU) growth of 17% to 20% year-over-year [1][2]. This anticipated growth is expected to be more pronounced during the latter half of the year [1][2]. As of June 30, 2026, Life360 reported approximately 102.4 million global MAU, having added 4.6 million net users during the second quarter of 2026 [2][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Life360, Inc. Updates Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2026 | MarketScreener Australiaau.marketscreener.com
  2. 2Life360 Reports Record Q2 2026 Resultsinvestors.life360.com
  3. 3Life360 posts 38% revenue growth in Q2 2026 | LIF 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  4. 4Life360 Reports Record Q2 2026 Results | FinancialContentfinancialcontent.com

7. What is the consensus among equity analysts for Life360's year-end 2026 MAU count, and what are the key drivers cited in their models?

2026 MAU Growth Guidance17% to 20% year-over-year [1][2][3]
2025 Year-End MAU Base95.8 million [1][2][3]
Implied 2026 Year-End MAU112.1 million to 115.0 million [1][2][3]
Life360 anticipates 112.1 to 115.0 million MAU by year-end 2026. The company has reiterated its guidance for fiscal 2026, projecting Monthly Active User (MAU) growth of 17% to 20% year-over-year. Starting from a year-end 2025 base of 95.8 million MAU, this guidance implies an MAU count between approximately 112.1 million and 115.0 million by the close of 2026 [1][2][3].
Growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2026. Analysts and the company anticipate that MAU growth in 2026 will be heavily weighted toward the second half of the year due to temporary headwinds expected in the first half, which are linked to technical and onboarding issues [1][4][2]. Key drivers for the year include continued international expansion, especially recovery in Android-heavy markets, the scaling of the advertising platform, and core subscription growth. These drivers are expected to accelerate as the business enters its strongest seasonal period during the second half of the year [5][4][2].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Life360 Reports Record Q2 2026 Resultsinvestors.life360.com
  2. 2Life360 Shares Sink 24% Despite Reporting Record Revenue, 2026 Forecast Disappointsts2.tech
  3. 3Life360 To Report Record Q4 2025 Operationalannouncements.asx.com.au
  4. 4Life360 outlines $650M-$685M 2026 revenue outlook...seekingalpha.com
  5. 5a992-q126life360_arinvessec.gov

8. How does Life360's MAU growth in international markets compare to its core U.S. market as of the Q2 2026 report?

Total Global MAU (Q2 2026)102.4 million (Q2 2026) [1][2][3]
Total MAU Growth (YoY)16.36% (Q2 2026) [4][5]
U.S. MAU (Q1 2026)2.1 million (Q1 2026) [4][5]
Life360 achieved significant global monthly active user growth in Q2 2026. The company reported approximately 102.4 million total global monthly active users (MAU) as of the Q2 2026 report, indicating a 16% year-over-year increase [1][2][3]. Specifically, the total MAU growth was recorded at 16.36% year-over-year [4][5].
The Q2 2026 report lacks specific MAU data for regional comparison. Life360's Q2 2026 filing does not disclose MAU segmented by U.S. versus international markets. As a result, a direct growth comparison for these two segments is not available from the Q2 2026 report, meaning there is no evidence-based method to compare growth rates between international markets and the core U.S. market for this period [4][5].
Earlier data offers the latest insight into U.S. and international MAU. The most recent segment-level MAU split found in investor materials is from Q1 2026, which reported U.S. MAU of 2.1 million and international MAU of 0.9 million [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Life360 Reports Record Q2 2026 Resultsinvestors.life360.com
  2. 2Life360 posts 38% revenue growth in Q2 2026 | LIF 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  3. 3Life360 (NASDAQ:LIF, ASX:360): Revenue Jumps as Monthly Users Cross 100 Millionkalkine.com.au
  4. 4Life360, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q2, Page: 44Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  5. 5Life360, Inc. (10-Q) - 2026-Q2, Page: 15Octagon Agentoctagonai.co

9. According to Life360's investor relations, what is the scheduled release date for the Q4 2026 report containing the final MAU figure?

Projected Q4 2026 Earnings ReleaseEarly 2027 [1][2]
Historical Q4 Release WindowLate February or early March (following year) [1][2]
Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings ReleaseMarch 2, 2026 [1][2]
Life360's Q4 2026 report, with final MAU, is expected early 2027. The final monthly active users (MAU) figure for Life360's fiscal year 2026 will be included in its Q4 2026 earnings report, which is currently projected for release in early 2027 [1][2]. This specific report will furnish the official MAU data for the fiscal year.
Historically, Life360 releases Q4 results in late February or early March. The company typically issues its Q4 earnings reports in late February or early March of the subsequent year [1][2]. For example, the fiscal year 2025 results were released on March 2, 2026 [1][2]. Current financial calendars for 2026 indicate that a similar reporting pattern for the Q4 and annual results is anticipated [1][2].
Official MAU figures are crucial for prediction market resolutions. The final MAU figure officially disclosed in Life360's annual filing or end-of-year earnings release is the specific data point that prediction markets historically utilize for resolution purposes [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Calendar Life360, Inc.marketscreener.com
  2. 2Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financials - Life360 Incpublic.com
  3. 3Life360 monthly active users in fiscal 2026kalshi.com

10. What potential policy changes from Apple (iOS) or Google (Android) in H2 2026 could create headwinds for Life360's location-sharing features?

OS Feature IntroductionH2 2026 (Apple iOS 27, Google Android 17) [1]
Impact on Third-Party AppsPotential headwinds for background location tracking apps [1]
User Privacy TrendIncreased interest in privacy [2]
Apple and Google introduced enhanced location controls in H2 2026. In the second half of 2026, Apple's iOS 27 and Google's Android 17 introduced new granular location-sharing features. These updates empower users with greater control and transparency over their location data through options such as temporary precise location access on Android and "Hide Location" features with flexible sharing scopes on iOS [1].
OS changes challenge apps relying on continuous background tracking. These operating system changes are expected to create headwinds for third-party applications like Life360, which depend on continuous background location tracking. The increased user control and transparency regarding location sharing can hinder these apps. Furthermore, Apple's operating system persistently prompts users for background location permissions, a notification that Life360 cannot override, thus encouraging the use of Apple's more battery-efficient native 'Find My' service [1].
Public privacy concerns reinforce OS location data management. A growing interest in privacy among the general public provides additional support for the shift towards more controlled and transparent location data management, as implemented by these new operating system features [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1What's New in Android Security and Privacy in 2026blog.google
  2. 2Unhealthy Air Quality Envelops NYC as Heat Tests US Grids | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Life360's core metrics demonstrate growth potential. Global Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 102.4 million as of June 30, 2026, marking a 16% year-over-year increase from Q1 2026 MAU of 97.8 million [1][2]. Paying Circles expanded 27% year-over-year to 3.2 million in Q2 2026, while the advertising platform recorded $22.0 million in Q2 [3][4][5][6]. Life360 maintains full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $650 million to $685 million and Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $130 million to $140 million. MAU growth is projected at 17% to 20% for the full year, with growth weighted toward the second half. International expansion also acts as a bullish catalyst [1][7][3][3][4][5][6].
Despite these growth metrics, Life360 shares experienced significant sell-off pressure following Q2 2026 earnings, released August 10
11, 2026 [1][5][8]. Investor disappointment stemmed from management's decision to maintain existing guidance instead of upgrading it [1][5][8]. Bearish risks include rising operating costs that could outpace revenue growth, potential competition from Apple/Google ecosystems, and market concerns regarding net income declines despite revenue increases [3][4][5][6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 27, 2027
  • Closes: May 27, 2027
Sources (8)
  1. 1Life360 Reports Record Q2 2026 Resultsinvestors.life360.com
  2. 2Life360 Reports Record Q1 2026 Resultsinvestors.life360.com
  3. 3Life360 Reports Record Q2 2026 Results | FinancialContentfinancialcontent.com
  4. 4Life360 Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - Markets Dailythemarketsdaily.com
  5. 5Life360 shares sink 15%: Is this growth stock in trouble?fool.com.au
  6. 6Life360 (ASX:360) Shares Drift As Margin Questions Cloud Growth - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  7. 7Life360, Inc. Updates Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2026 | MarketScreener Australiaau.marketscreener.com
  8. 8Life360 Stock Fell 25% After Earnings. Here’s Where Shares Could Go in 2026 | TIKR.comtikr.com