BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds (73.1% vs 0.0%) than the market for BrightSpring Health's home health average daily census Above 46200 in fiscal 2026, citing a reported Q2 2026 census of 46,448 and expected sustained growth from acquisitions and expansions.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's price action is defined by a single, sharp upward movement. The contract traded at a floor of 1.0% until August 13, 2026, when it experienced a 54.0 percentage point spike to its current price of 55.0%. This new level at 55.0% has become the market's effective ceiling and current trading point. The price jump indicates a decisive shift in market expectations based on new fundamental data.
The primary catalyst for the repricing was likely the release of BrightSpring Health's second-quarter 2026 financial results on July 31. The report announced that the company's home health average daily census reached 46,448, a 54% increase over the same period in 2025. This strong performance led the company to increase its full-year 2026 guidance. The market's sharp reaction suggests this data directly informed trader outlooks on the fiscal 2026 metric.
Trading volume is extremely low, with only 6 contracts traded in total. This thin liquidity suggests the price move reflects the conviction of a very small number of participants rather than a broad consensus. The current 55.0% probability indicates that the market views the outcome as more likely than not, pricing in the strong Q2 census data and positive forward guidance.
- Average daily census appears likely above 46,500, with Q2 2026 reported at 46,448.
- Increased full-year guidance and acquisitions are expected to sustain growth above 46,800.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 47400 | 53.0% | 58.3% | Model higher by 5.3pp |
| Above 47100 | 69.0% | 58.3% | Market higher by 10.7pp |
| Above 46800 | 71.0% | 73.1% | Model higher by 2.1pp |
| Above 46500 | 62.0% | 73.1% | Model higher by 11.1pp |
| Above 46200 | 0.0% | 73.1% | Model higher by 73.1pp |
Current Context
BrightSpring Health reported strong Q2 2026 home health census growth. The Home Health Care average daily census reached 46,448 in the second quarter of 2026, a 54% increase from 30,085 in the same period of 2025 [^][^][^][^]. Concurrently, BrightSpring raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance in its Q2 2026 earnings report [^]. Total revenue is now expected to range between $15.1 billion and $15.425 billion, with total Adjusted EBITDA projected between $820 million and $845 million [^][^].
Growth drivers include organic expansion and strategic acquisitions. Fiscal year 2026 growth is driven by increases in average daily census, expansions of de novo sites, and the integration of acquired Amedisys and LHC Group assets [^]. These acquired assets are expected to contribute approximately $35 million in Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026 [^].
Prediction markets monitor the annual average daily census target. Markets, such as Kalshi, are tracking whether BrightSpring Health's annual average daily census for 2026 will exceed 46,800 [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 13, 2026: 70.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 71.0%
Outcome: Above 46800
What happened: The primary driver of the 70.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on August 13, 2026, was likely BrightSpring Health Services' Q2 2026 financial results, announced on July 31, 2026 [^][^]. These results included an increase in full-year 2026 guidance, which signaled a stronger expected performance for the fiscal year, despite the reported Q2 average daily census being 46,448 [^][^][^]. This positive outlook for the full year likely drove investor confidence that the "Above 46800" target would be met, as market activity around August 13, 2026, was characterized by investors digesting these strong Q2 results [^]. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity was found in the provided research.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "YES" resolution occurs if BrightSpring Health's home health average daily census in fiscal 2026 is above 47,400. A "NO" resolution occurs if the census is 47,400 or less. Trading ends on March 5, 2025, at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of June 3, 2027. No special settlement conditions are mentioned in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 46800 | $0.85 | $0.23 | 71% |
| Above 47100 | $0.75 | $0.33 | 69% |
| Above 46500 | $0.93 | $0.15 | 62% |
| Above 47400 | $0.63 | $0.45 | 53% |
| Above 46200 | $0.98 | $0.10 | 0% |
Market Discussion
BrightSpring Health announced a Home Health Care average daily census of 46,066 for Q1 2026 and 46,448 for Q2 2026 [^][^][^][^]. A prediction market currently tracks whether the annual average daily census for fiscal year 2026 will be above 47,400 [^]. Investor discussions following Q2 2026 results reflect a debate between the company's strong operational growth and concerns regarding valuation and the durability of high growth rates [^].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score61Caution
Trade quality20% of score34High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score55Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Market integrity83
Outcome is hard to influenceGood
Info fairness40
High Risk
Trade quality34
Order book is critically thinHigh Risk
6. How will the ongoing integration of Amedisys and LHC Group assets affect BrightSpring's home health census in the second half of fiscal 2026?
| Home Health ADC Q2 2026 | 46,448 [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Revenue from acquired assets | $78 million [^][^][^] |
| Full-year 2026 EBITDA expectation from acquired assets | $35 million [^][^][^] |
Ongoing integration of divested assets will bolster BrightSpring's home health census. The continued integration of home health and hospice locations, acquired from Amedisys and LHC Group, is expected to support sustained average daily census (ADC) growth for BrightSpring's home health segment in the second half of fiscal 2026 [^][^][^]. These assets already contributed to ADC growth in the first half of 2026, with BrightSpring's ADC reported as 46,066 in Q1 and 46,448 in Q2 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Management has reported that the integration of the Amedisys and LHC branches is proceeding well, with all business lines and branches successfully migrated onto the company's home-based care system as of mid-2026 [^][^][^].
Acquired assets are significantly contributing to BrightSpring's financial performance and guidance. BrightSpring Health was one of the buyers of 164 home health and hospice locations divested by UnitedHealth Group/Optum, a requirement to resolve the Department of Justice's antitrust challenge to the Amedisys/LHC Group merger [^][^][^][^]. The acquisition of these divestiture assets contributed approximately $78 million in revenue and $8 million in adjusted EBITDA during Q2 2026 [^][^][^]. Due to integration progressing ahead of schedule, management has increased their full-year 2026 EBITDA contribution expectation for these assets to $35 million [^][^][^].
7. How does BrightSpring's organic ADC growth in its home health segment for fiscal 2026 compare to that of key competitor Enhabit Home Health & Hospice?
| BrightSpring Q2 2026 Provider Services Revenue Growth | 51% year-over-year (Q2 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Enhabit Home Health ADC Growth 2026 | Not available (as of August 14, 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
| Enhabit Home Health ADC Growth 2025 | 6.4% year-over-year (full year 2025) [^][^][^] |
Direct comparison of 2026 home health ADC growth is not feasible. A direct numeric comparison of BrightSpring's organic average daily census (ADC) growth in its home health segment for fiscal year 2026 with Enhabit Home Health & Hospice is not possible due to a lack of disclosed data. BrightSpring has not explicitly provided a specific organic ADC growth percentage for its home health segment for 2026. While the company reports "strong" and "industry-leading" ADC growth, its 2026 quarterly earnings materials indicate that revenue growth in its Provider Services segment, which encompasses home healthcare, is driven by a combination of organic factors, de novo expansion, and M&A integration. This segment notably expanded by 51% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, reaching $278 million [^][^].
Enhabit's 2026 full-year ADC growth data remains unavailable. As of August 14, 2026, comprehensive full-year 2026 average daily census growth data for Enhabit Home Health & Hospice has not yet been released [^][^][^][^]. For contextual understanding, Enhabit previously reported a 6.4% year-over-year increase in home health ADC for the full year 2025. This growth was attributed to a strategic focus on managing declines in Medicare ADC while simultaneously increasing non-Medicare volume [^][^][^].
8. What key assumptions regarding patient volumes and operating synergies underpin BrightSpring’s increased full-year 2026 financial guidance?
| Full-year 2026 Revenue Guidance | $15.1 billion to $15.425 billion [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance | $820 million to $845 million [^][^][^] |
| Q2 2026 Home Health Care Daily Census | 46,448 [^] |
BrightSpring Health has increased its full-year 2026 financial guidance, now projecting revenues between $15.1 billion and $15.425 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA of $820 million to $845 million [^] [^] [^] . Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | Markets Insider">[^][^][^]. This revised outlook is primarily underpinned by assumptions of sustained patient volume growth and enhanced operational synergies.
A key assumption supporting this guidance is continued patient volume expansion, particularly within the Home Health Care segment, which reported an average daily census of 46,448 in Q2 2026 [^] . Operational synergies are also crucial, stemming from a favorable patient mix, strong operating execution, and the successful integration of Amedisys and LHC branch acquisitions. These acquisitions alone are anticipated to contribute approximately $35 million to Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 [^][^][^][^].
Management further emphasized several additional drivers of operational efficiencies, including lean process improvement programs. Ongoing investments in technology and artificial intelligence, coupled with the strategic scaling of BrightSpring's diversified platform across various home and community-based health markets, are also considered key factors [^][^][^].
9. What is BrightSpring's official release schedule for Q3 and Q4 2026 operational data, specifically the home health average daily census?
| Q3/Q4 2026 Home Health ADC Release | Not publicly confirmed or itemized [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Data Release Context | Typically released with quarterly earnings announcements [^][^][^] |
| Last Reported Results | Q2 2026 results released July 31, 2026 [^][^][^] |
BrightSpring lacks a specific schedule for Q3 and Q4 2026 home health data. BrightSpring Health Services does not have a publicly confirmed, itemized official release schedule specifically for its Q3 and Q4 2026 home health average daily census data [^][^][^]. The company typically includes operational key performance indicators (KPIs), such as the home health average daily census, within its broader quarterly financial results and earnings announcements [^][^][^].
Home health average daily census data appears in quarterly reports. The home health average daily census is reported as a KPI within the company's Provider Services segment in its quarterly earnings reports [^][^][^]. While the Q2 2026 results were released on July 31, 2026 [^][^][^], there is no specific, itemized public schedule for future operational data releases. Such data is generally expected to be provided during future quarterly earnings calls, which typically occur in the months following the end of each fiscal quarter [^][^][^].
10. Beyond acquisitions, what is the projected contribution of BrightSpring's de novo site expansions to the total home health ADC for fiscal 2026?
| FY2026 Home Health ADC from De Novo Sites | about 1,000 [^] |
|---|---|
| Total FY2026 Home Health ADC Outlook | 20,900 to 21,100 [^] |
| De Novo Share of Total FY2026 Home Health ADC | 4.74% to 4.78% [^] |
BrightSpring projects de novo expansions will contribute significantly to FY2026 home health ADC. For fiscal year 2026, de novo site expansions are expected to add approximately 1,000 to the total home health average daily census (ADC) [^]. This contribution is part of a broader outlook for the full-year Home Health ADC, which is anticipated to be between 20,900 and 21,100 for the same period [^]. Based on the guidance range midpoint, de novo expansions are projected to account for roughly 4.74% to 4.78% of the total FY2026 home health ADC [^].
De novo expansions are a primary driver of BrightSpring's organic growth. BrightSpring Health identifies de novo site expansions as a key catalyst for its home health care volume and census expansion, complementing other strategies like acquisitions and contract execution [^]. These de novo expansion efforts are integral to BrightSpring's overarching organic growth strategy, through which the company aims to enter approximately 8 new markets annually [^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
BrightSpring Health's Home Health Care average daily census grew to 46,448 for the three months ended June 30, 2026, from 30,085 in the same period in 2025 [^] [^] [^] . Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | Markets Insider">[^][^][^]. The company updated its full year 2026 guidance, projecting total revenues of $15.1 billion to $15.425 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $820 million to $845 million [^]. Bullish catalysts include revenue and EBITDA growth, leverage reduction below 2x, and M&A integration [^].
Countervailing factors include expected IRA-related reimbursement pressure, with a projected $175 million impact in 2026 [^] [^] [^] . — TradingView News">[^][^]. The company operates with thin operating margins, and regulatory or DOJ investigation risks are present [^][^][^]. Market sentiment as of July 2026 indicates a heavily bearish outlook from valuation models, which assessed the stock as significantly overvalued at $72.46 [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 03, 2027
- Closes: June 03, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: BrightSpring Health's Home Health Care average daily census grew to 46,448 for the three months ended June 30, 2026, from 30,085 in the same period in 2025 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The company updated its full year 2026 guidance, projecting total revenues of $15.1 billion to $15.425 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $820 million to $845 million [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts include revenue and EBITDA growth, leverage reduction below 2x, and M&A integration [^] .
- Trigger: Countervailing factors include expected IRA-related reimbursement pressure, with a projected $175 million impact in 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
