Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds (73.1% vs 0.0%) than the market for BrightSpring Health's home health average daily census Above 46200 in fiscal 2026, citing a reported Q2 2026 census of 46,448 and expected sustained growth from acquisitions and expansions.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action is defined by a single, sharp upward movement. The contract traded at a floor of 1.0% until August 13, 2026, when it experienced a 54.0 percentage point spike to its current price of 55.0%. This new level at 55.0% has become the market's effective ceiling and current trading point. The price jump indicates a decisive shift in market expectations based on new fundamental data.
The primary catalyst for the repricing was likely the release of BrightSpring Health's second-quarter 2026 financial results on July 31. The report announced that the company's home health average daily census reached 46,448, a 54% increase over the same period in 2025. This strong performance led the company to increase its full-year 2026 guidance. The market's sharp reaction suggests this data directly informed trader outlooks on the fiscal 2026 metric.
Trading volume is extremely low, with only 6 contracts traded in total. This thin liquidity suggests the price move reflects the conviction of a very small number of participants rather than a broad consensus. The current 55.0% probability indicates that the market views the outcome as more likely than not, pricing in the strong Q2 census data and positive forward guidance.
  • Average daily census appears likely above 46,500, with Q2 2026 reported at 46,448.
  • Increased full-year guidance and acquisitions are expected to sustain growth above 46,800.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 47400 53.0% 58.3% Model higher by 5.3pp
Above 47100 79.0% 58.3% Market higher by 20.7pp
Above 46800 71.0% 73.1% Model higher by 2.1pp
Above 46500 62.0% 73.1% Model higher by 11.1pp
Above 46200 0.0% 73.1% Model higher by 73.1pp

Current Context

BrightSpring Health reported strong Q2 2026 home health census growth. The Home Health Care average daily census reached 46,448 in the second quarter of 2026, a 54% increase from 30,085 in the same period of 2025 [1][2][3][4]. Concurrently, BrightSpring raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance in its Q2 2026 earnings report [5]. Total revenue is now expected to range between $15.1 billion and $15.425 billion, with total Adjusted EBITDA projected between $820 million and $845 million [6][7].
Growth drivers include organic expansion and strategic acquisitions. Fiscal year 2026 growth is driven by increases in average daily census, expansions of de novo sites, and the integration of acquired Amedisys and LHC Group assets [6]. These acquired assets are expected to contribute approximately $35 million in Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026 [8].
Prediction markets monitor the annual average daily census target. Markets, such as Kalshi, are tracking whether BrightSpring Health's annual average daily census for 2026 will exceed 46,800 [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarterglobenewswire.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026...ir.brightspringhealth.com
  4. 4BrightSpring Health Services - Unit | 8-K: FY2026 Q2 Revenue: USD 3.873 B | Longbridgelongbridge.com
  5. 5BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidanceinvestor.wedbush.com
  6. 6BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  7. 7BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidanceuk.marketscreener.com
  8. 8BrightSpring Expects $35M EBITDA Boost From Amedisys, LHC Group Assets - Home Health Care Newshomehealthcarenews.com
  9. 9BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in...kalshi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 13, 2026: 70.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 71.0%

Outcome: Above 46800

What happened: The primary driver of the 70.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on August 13, 2026, was likely BrightSpring Health Services' Q2 2026 financial results, announced on July 31, 2026 [1][2]. These results included an increase in full-year 2026 guidance, which signaled a stronger expected performance for the fiscal year, despite the reported Q2 average daily census being 46,448 [1][2][3]. This positive outlook for the full year likely drove investor confidence that the "Above 46800" target would be met, as market activity around August 13, 2026, was characterized by investors digesting these strong Q2 results [4]. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity was found in the provided research.
Sources (4)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarterglobenewswire.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health Services - Unit | 8-K: FY2026 Q2 Revenue: USD 3.873 B | Longbridgelongbridge.com
  4. 4BrightSpring Health Services falls as investors appear to digest a recent run-up despite strong Q2 results | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A "YES" resolution occurs if BrightSpring Health's home health average daily census in fiscal 2026 is above 47,400. A "NO" resolution occurs if the census is 47,400 or less. Trading ends on March 5, 2025, at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of June 3, 2027. No special settlement conditions are mentioned in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 47100 $0.76 $0.33 79%
Above 46800 $0.88 $0.21 71%
Above 46500 $0.95 $0.14 62%
Above 47400 $0.65 $0.43 53%
Above 46200 $0.99 $0.09 0%
Above 47700 $0.47 $0.62 0%
Above 48000 $0.35 $0.74 0%
Above 48300 $0.19 $0.90 0%

Market Discussion

BrightSpring Health announced a Home Health Care average daily census of 46,066 for Q1 2026 and 46,448 for Q2 2026 [1][2][3][4]. A prediction market currently tracks whether the annual average daily census for fiscal year 2026 will be above 47,400 [5]. Investor discussions following Q2 2026 results reflect a debate between the company's strong operational growth and concerns regarding valuation and the durability of high growth rates [6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026...ir.brightspringhealth.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health Services - Unit | 8-K: FY2026 Q2 Revenue: USD 3.873 B | Longbridgelongbridge.com
  4. 4https://ir.brightspringhealth.com/static-files/fc1c3d70-5085-4a6a-b610-44da685de496ir.brightspringhealth.com
  5. 5BrightSpring Health home health average daily census in...kalshi.com
  6. 6BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Stock Retreats As Valuation Angst Trumps Growth - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 64 Caution

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score70Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score42High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score64Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Above 47,100” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
52Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

2 contracts · worst first · 6 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 4710052
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 47400—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
65Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

2 contracts · worst first · 6 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 4710065
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Above 47400—
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first · 6 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 47100100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 47400100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
42High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 52 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 5.0c slippage (~7% of a 71c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

6 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 4710052Market scoreLiquidity52Move quality65Rule clarity100
Why 52
Liquidity
52 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
65 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 47400–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 27, 2026

6. How will the ongoing integration of Amedisys and LHC Group assets affect BrightSpring's home health census in the second half of fiscal 2026?

Home Health ADC Q2 202646,448 [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Q2 2026 Revenue from acquired assets$78 million [1][3][6]
Full-year 2026 EBITDA expectation from acquired assets$35 million [1][3][6]
Ongoing integration of divested assets will bolster BrightSpring's home health census. The continued integration of home health and hospice locations, acquired from Amedisys and LHC Group, is expected to support sustained average daily census (ADC) growth for BrightSpring's home health segment in the second half of fiscal 2026 [1][3][4]. These assets already contributed to ADC growth in the first half of 2026, with BrightSpring's ADC reported as 46,066 in Q1 and 46,448 in Q2 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Management has reported that the integration of the Amedisys and LHC branches is proceeding well, with all business lines and branches successfully migrated onto the company's home-based care system as of mid-2026 [1][3][4].
Acquired assets are significantly contributing to BrightSpring's financial performance and guidance. BrightSpring Health was one of the buyers of 164 home health and hospice locations divested by UnitedHealth Group/Optum, a requirement to resolve the Department of Justice's antitrust challenge to the Amedisys/LHC Group merger [7][8][9][10]. The acquisition of these divestiture assets contributed approximately $78 million in revenue and $8 million in adjusted EBITDA during Q2 2026 [1][3][6]. Due to integration progressing ahead of schedule, management has increased their full-year 2026 EBITDA contribution expectation for these assets to $35 million [1][3][6].
Sources (10)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidancecentralcharts.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health Services Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - Markets Dailythemarketsdaily.com
  4. 4BrightSpring’s Amedisys, LHC Acquisition Drove $79M In Q1 Revenue  - Home Health Care Newshomehealthcarenews.com
  5. 5BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
  6. 6BTSG Raises 2026 Guidance as Specialty and Home Health Drive Growthfinance.yahoo.com
  7. 7UnitedHealth closes $3.3B Amedisys buy after long regulatory battle | Healthcare Divehealthcaredive.com
  8. 8[UPDATED] UnitedHealth Group’s Acquisition of Amedisys Closes - Hospice Newshospicenews.com
  9. 9Justice Department Requires Broad Divestitures to...justice.gov
  10. 10UnitedHealth Group closes on Amedisys acquisitionmcknightshomecare.com

7. How does BrightSpring's organic ADC growth in its home health segment for fiscal 2026 compare to that of key competitor Enhabit Home Health & Hospice?

BrightSpring Q2 2026 Provider Services Revenue Growth51% year-over-year (Q2 2026) [1][2]
Enhabit Home Health ADC Growth 2026Not available (as of August 14, 2026) [3][4][5][6]
Enhabit Home Health ADC Growth 20256.4% year-over-year (full year 2025) [3][4][5]
Direct comparison of 2026 home health ADC growth is not feasible. A direct numeric comparison of BrightSpring's organic average daily census (ADC) growth in its home health segment for fiscal year 2026 with Enhabit Home Health & Hospice is not possible due to a lack of disclosed data. BrightSpring has not explicitly provided a specific organic ADC growth percentage for its home health segment for 2026. While the company reports "strong" and "industry-leading" ADC growth, its 2026 quarterly earnings materials indicate that revenue growth in its Provider Services segment, which encompasses home healthcare, is driven by a combination of organic factors, de novo expansion, and M&A integration. This segment notably expanded by 51% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, reaching $278 million [1][2].
Enhabit's 2026 full-year ADC growth data remains unavailable. As of August 14, 2026, comprehensive full-year 2026 average daily census growth data for Enhabit Home Health & Hospice has not yet been released [3][4][5][6]. For contextual understanding, Enhabit previously reported a 6.4% year-over-year increase in home health ADC for the full year 2025. This growth was attributed to a strategic focus on managing declines in Medicare ADC while simultaneously increasing non-Medicare volume [3][4][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidanceinvestor.wedbush.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | BrightSpring Health Servicesir.brightspringhealth.com
  3. 3enhabit_earningsxslidesxsec.gov
  4. 4Earningssec.gov
  5. 5Enhabit Reports Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  6. 6Enhabit Reaches 'Pivotal' Growth Inflection Pointhospicenews.com

8. What key assumptions regarding patient volumes and operating synergies underpin BrightSpring’s increased full-year 2026 financial guidance?

Full-year 2026 Revenue Guidance$15.1 billion to $15.425 billion [1][2][3]
Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance$820 million to $845 million [1][2][3]
Q2 2026 Home Health Care Daily Census46,448 [4]
BrightSpring Health has increased its full-year 2026 financial guidance, now projecting revenues between $15.1 billion and $15.425 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA of $820 million to $845 million [1][2][3]. This revised outlook is primarily underpinned by assumptions of sustained patient volume growth and enhanced operational synergies.
A key assumption supporting this guidance is continued patient volume expansion, particularly within the Home Health Care segment, which reported an average daily census of 46,448 in Q2 2026 [4]. Operational synergies are also crucial, stemming from a favorable patient mix, strong operating execution, and the successful integration of Amedisys and LHC branch acquisitions. These acquisitions alone are anticipated to contribute approximately $35 million to Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 [4][1][5][3].
Management further emphasized several additional drivers of operational efficiencies, including lean process improvement programs. Ongoing investments in technology and artificial intelligence, coupled with the strategic scaling of BrightSpring's diversified platform across various home and community-based health markets, are also considered key factors [4][6][3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidanceinvestor.wedbush.com
  3. 3BTSG Raises 2026 Guidance as Specialty and Home...finance.yahoo.com
  4. 4BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  5. 5BrightSpring Health Services (NASDAQ: BTSG) lifts 2026...stocktitan.net
  6. 6First Quarter 2026 Earningsbrightspringhealth.gcs-web.com

9. What is BrightSpring's official release schedule for Q3 and Q4 2026 operational data, specifically the home health average daily census?

Q3/Q4 2026 Home Health ADC ReleaseNot publicly confirmed or itemized [1][2][3]
Data Release ContextTypically released with quarterly earnings announcements [4][5][6]
Last Reported ResultsQ2 2026 results released July 31, 2026 [4][5][6]
BrightSpring lacks a specific schedule for Q3 and Q4 2026 home health data. BrightSpring Health Services does not have a publicly confirmed, itemized official release schedule specifically for its Q3 and Q4 2026 home health average daily census data [1][2][3]. The company typically includes operational key performance indicators (KPIs), such as the home health average daily census, within its broader quarterly financial results and earnings announcements [4][5][6].
Home health average daily census data appears in quarterly reports. The home health average daily census is reported as a KPI within the company's Provider Services segment in its quarterly earnings reports [7][8][9]. While the Q2 2026 results were released on July 31, 2026 [4][5][6], there is no specific, itemized public schedule for future operational data releases. Such data is generally expected to be provided during future quarterly earnings calls, which typically occur in the months following the end of each fiscal quarter [1][2][3].
Sources (9)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Earnings Date and...marketbeat.com
  2. 2https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/btsg/earningstipranks.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Earnings Dates,...moomoo.com
  4. 4BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on July 31, 2026 | BrightSpring Health Servicesir.brightspringhealth.com
  5. 5Investor Relations | BrightSpring Health Servicesir.brightspringhealth.com
  6. 6BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarterglobenewswire.com
  7. 7BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
  8. 8BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026...ir.brightspringhealth.com
  9. 9BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | lifestyle.pspl.comlifestyle.pspl.com

10. Beyond acquisitions, what is the projected contribution of BrightSpring's de novo site expansions to the total home health ADC for fiscal 2026?

FY2026 Home Health ADC from De Novo Sitesabout 1,000 [1]
Total FY2026 Home Health ADC Outlook20,900 to 21,100 [1]
De Novo Share of Total FY2026 Home Health ADC4.74% to 4.78% [1]
BrightSpring projects de novo expansions will contribute significantly to FY2026 home health ADC. For fiscal year 2026, de novo site expansions are expected to add approximately 1,000 to the total home health average daily census (ADC) [1]. This contribution is part of a broader outlook for the full-year Home Health ADC, which is anticipated to be between 20,900 and 21,100 for the same period [1]. Based on the guidance range midpoint, de novo expansions are projected to account for roughly 4.74% to 4.78% of the total FY2026 home health ADC [1].
De novo expansions are a primary driver of BrightSpring's organic growth. BrightSpring Health identifies de novo site expansions as a key catalyst for its home health care volume and census expansion, complementing other strategies like acquisitions and contract execution [2]. These de novo expansion efforts are integral to BrightSpring's overarching organic growth strategy, through which the company aims to enter approximately 8 new markets annually [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1BTSG_Q12026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | BrightSpring Health Servicesir.brightspringhealth.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health Services Seeks Acquisition Opportunities | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

BrightSpring Health's Home Health Care average daily census grew to 46,448 for the three months ended June 30, 2026, from 30,085 in the same period in 2025 [1][2][3]. The company updated its full year 2026 guidance, projecting total revenues of $15.1 billion to $15.425 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $820 million to $845 million [4]. Bullish catalysts include revenue and EBITDA growth, leverage reduction below 2x, and M&A integration [4].
Countervailing factors include expected IRA-related reimbursement pressure, with a projected $175 million impact in 2026 [4][5][6]. The company operates with thin operating margins, and regulatory or DOJ investigation risks are present [4][5][6]. Market sentiment as of July 2026 indicates a heavily bearish outlook from valuation models, which assessed the stock as significantly overvalued at $72.46 [7][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 03, 2027
  • Closes: June 03, 2027
Sources (8)
  1. 1BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
  2. 2BrightSpring Health Services - Unit | 8-K: FY2026 Q2 Revenue: USD 3.873 B | Longbridgelongbridge.com
  3. 3BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | lifestyle.pspl.comlifestyle.pspl.com
  4. 4BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  5. 5Should You Buy BTSG Stock After Raised 2026 Outlook? — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  6. 6BrightSpring Stock (BTSG): Huge Revenue, Thin Marginminnowstreet.com
  7. 7BTSG Stock: Buy or Avoid in 2026? | CirclFicirclfi.com
  8. 8BTSG Fair Value 2026 — 13 Valuation Models | CirclFicirclfi.com