BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q1
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Above 10.8 million prescriptions expected from new Limited-Distribution Drug contracts.
- Above 10.8 million also reflects strong Specialty and Infusion segment growth.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10.8 million | 0.0% | 12.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 10.85 million | 0.0% | 12.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 10.9 million | 0.0% | 12.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 11 million | 0.0% | 12.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
Sources (8)
- 1BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 2EX-99.1sec.gov
- 3BrightSpring Health Services - Unit | 8-K: FY2026 Q2 Revenue: USD 3.873 B | Longbridgelongbridge.com
- 4BTSG Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Raised Guidance and 2027 Growth — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 5BTSG 10-Q Item 2 — Management's Discussion and Analysis - FilingSpyfilingspy.com
- 6BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Earnings Date, Estimates & Call Transcriptsmarketbeat.com
- 7Goldman Sachs raises BrightSpring Health stock price target on strong growth outlook By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 8BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. to Announce First Quarter 2026 Financial Results on May 1, 2026 | BrightSpring Health Servicesir.brightspringhealth.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves "Yes" if BrightSpring Health reports more than 10.8 million prescriptions filled in Q1, and "No" if 10.8 million or fewer are reported. Trading for this market concludes on April 30, 6:00am EDT, with resolution based on BrightSpring Health's official Q1 reporting. The maximum payout date is listed as November 28, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10.8 million | $0.80 | $0.28 | 0% |
| Above 10.85 million | $0.66 | $0.42 | 0% |
| Above 10.9 million | $0.51 | $0.57 | 0% |
| Above 11 million | $0.23 | $0.85 | 0% |
Market Discussion
BrightSpring Health reported a 1.4% year-over-year decline in total prescriptions filled in Q1 2026, reaching 10,729,876, despite significant revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth attributed to a strategic shift towards higher-margin specialty and infusion pharmaceuticals [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. While higher-margin Specialty and Infusion script volume grew approximately 30% year-over-year in Q1 2026, the prediction market for Q1 2027 shows varying probabilities for total script counts, including a 76% chance of exceeding 10.8 million and a 19% chance of surpassing 11 million [10][9][11].
Sources (11)
- 1BrightSpring Q1 2026 slides: 45% EBITDA growth, guidance raised By Investing.comca.investing.com
- 2EX-99.1sec.gov
- 3First Quarter 2026 Earningsbrightspringhealth.gcs-web.com
- 4Form 10-Q for Brightspring Health Services INC filed 05/01/2026ir.brightspringhealth.com
- 5BrightSpring Health Services: First Quarter 2026 Presentation | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 6BrightSpring Q1 revenue rises 26%, lifts 2026 outlook | BTSG Stock Newsstocktitan.net
- 7BrightSpring Health Services Reports Strong Q1 2026 Results, Raises Full-Year Guidance and Posts 26% Revenue Growth – Minichartminichart.com.sg
- 8BrightSpring Health Services posts Q1 2026 revenue $3.614B, Adjusted EBITDA $190M; raises 2026 guidance — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 9BrightSpring (BTSG) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 10BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 11BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
4. How does Wall Street's consensus forecast for BrightSpring's Q1 2027 prescription volume compare to the Kalshi market's implied projections?
| Wall Street FY2027 Revenue Forecast | $17.22 billion [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Wall Street FY2027 EPS Forecast | $2.21 [1][2] |
| Kalshi Implied Q1 2027 Prescriptions | 10.85-10.9 million [3] |
Sources (5)
- 1BrightSpring Stock Up Nearly 59% YTD: Can Its Growth...finance.yahoo.com
- 22 Strong Buy Healthcare Stocks with Glowing Q3 Earningstipranks.com
- 3BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 4BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 5Kalshi Markets: Senate Seats, USD/CAD, Florida Governorpredictionnewsnetwork.com
5. What impact will new Limited-Distribution Drug (LDD) contracts secured in H2 2026 and Q1 2027 have on BrightSpring's total prescription volume?
| 2027 Prescription Volume Outlook | Potentially above current consensus due to LDD contract wins [1] |
|---|---|
| 2026-2027 Estimates Trend | Expected to increase, reflecting sustained revenue growth [2] |
| Q1 2027 Prescription Volume Prediction | Above 10.8 million (76% chance) [3][4][5] |
Sources (6)
- 1Hidden Angles — March 11, 2026 - t.co / Xt.co
- 2BrightSpring Health stock rating upgraded to Overweight...investing.com
- 3BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 4BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 5Kalshi Markets: Senate Seats, USD/CAD, Florida Governorpredictionnewsnetwork.com
- 6MercadoLibre items sold in Q3 2026 Odds & Predictionspublic.com
6. How did BrightSpring's organic prescription growth in its Pharmacy Solutions segment compare to key competitor Option Care Health (OPCH) in FY 2026?
| BrightSpring Q1 2026 Prescriptions Dispensed | 10,729,876 (down 1.4% year-over-year) [1] |
|---|---|
| BrightSpring Q3 2026 Pharmacy Solutions Prescriptions Dispensed | 10,949,875 (increase from 10,793,219 in Q3 2025) [2] |
| Option Care Health FY 2026 Guidance Revision | Down 3.75% in Q1 2026 [3] |
7. Based on historical performance from 2024-2026, what is the typical seasonal pattern for BrightSpring's prescription volume from Q4 to Q1?
| Typical Q4 to Q1 Volume Change | Modest decline of approximately 0.5-1.5% [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 Volume Decline | Approximately 0.6% (from 10.8 million to 10,729,876 prescriptions) [1][2][3] |
| Q1 2027 Prescription Prediction | Approximately 10.8-10.85 million prescriptions [4][5] |
Sources (7)
- 1BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter...tradingview.com
- 2Form 10-Q for Brightspring Health Services INC filed...ir.brightspringhealth.com
- 3BrightSpring Q1 2026 Earnings Review - Finseefinsee.ai
- 4BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 5BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 610-Ksec.gov
- 7BrightSpring Health (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call...fool.com
8. What is the projected incremental prescription volume from the Amedisys and LHC integrations for BrightSpring in Q1 2027?
| Amedisys/LHC Acquisition Value | $246.4 million [1] |
|---|---|
| Amedisys/LHC Expected Adjusted EBITDA (2026) | $35 million [1] |
| Projected Q1 2027 Prescriptions | 10.8-10.9 million [2][3][4] |
Sources (10)
- 1BrightSpring Expects $35M EBITDA Boost From Amedisys,...homehealthcarenews.com
- 2BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 3BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 4Kalshi Markets: Senate Seats, USD/CAD, Florida Governorpredictionnewsnetwork.com
- 5BrightSpring (BTSG) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
- 6BrightSpring Health (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call...fool.com
- 7Form 10-Q for Brightspring Health Services INC filed...ir.brightspringhealth.com
- 8BrightSpring (BTSG) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptwebull.ca
- 9BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.sec.gov
- 10MercadoLibre items sold in Q3 2026 Odds & Predictionspublic.com
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 28, 2027
- Closes: November 28, 2027
Sources (17)
- 1BrightSpring (BTSG) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 2BTSG Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Raised Guidance and 2027 Growth — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 3Goldman Sachs raises BrightSpring Health stock price target on strong growth outlook By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 4BTSG Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary | Stock Taperstocktaper.com
- 5The Real Money Behind Patient Satisfaction Awards in Home Healthainvest.com
- 6BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 7BrightSpring Q1 2026 slides: 45% EBITDA growth, guidance raised By Investing.comca.investing.com
- 8BrightSpring Health Services - Unit | 8-K: FY2026 Q2 Revenue: USD 3.873 B | Longbridgelongbridge.com
- 9BrightSpring Health Services Stock Analysis 2026: Buy or Sell?tickerguard.com
- 10BTSG Stock Climbs 67.3% YTD: What's Driving the Rally in 2026?finance.yahoo.com
- 11BrightSpring Health prescriptions filled in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 12BTSG · Q4 2025 earnings · Brightspring Health Services Inc · Happeninghappening.etoro.app
- 13BTSG · Q2 2026 earnings · Brightspring Health Services Inc · Happeninghappening.etoro.app
- 14BrightSpring Health Services Inc (BTSG) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analyst Predictionsinvestorshub.advfn.com
- 15BrightSpring Health Services Inc (BTSG) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analyst Predictionsadvfn.com
- 16BTSG Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financialspublic.com
- 17BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Earnings Date, Estimates & Call Transcriptsmarketbeat.com
11. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 11 markets in this series
Outcomes: 6 resolved YES, 5 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTSG-26NOVHHADC-47800: NO (Oct 30, 2026)
- KXBTSG-26NOVHHADC-47600: NO (Oct 30, 2026)
- KXBTSG-26NOVHHADC-47400: NO (Oct 30, 2026)
- KXBTSG-26NOVHHADC-47200: YES (Oct 30, 2026)
- KXBTSG-26NOVHHADC-47000: YES (Oct 30, 2026)