Duolingo daily active users in Q3
Short Answer
Duolingo's daily active users in Q3 2026 are likely to exceed 60 million. Bullish analyst forecasts, supported by proprietary tracking and third-party data, indicate robust year-over-year growth, with the market pricing this outcome at 86%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's high probability is anchored by Duolingo's Q2 2026 results, which reported average daily active users (DAUs) of 58.7 million. This figure is just below the market's 59 million threshold. The company also reported a 23% year-over-year growth rate for DAUs in Q2, establishing a strong precedent for continued user expansion. The market is pricing a high probability that even modest sequential growth from Q2 to Q3 will be sufficient to exceed the 59 million user mark.
The positive sentiment is further supported by Duolingo's official Q3 2026 guidance. While the company did not provide a specific DAU forecast, its projections for 11.1% year-over-year revenue growth and 8.9% bookings growth imply continued business momentum, which often correlates with user growth. The market's upward move from 80% to 86% does not coincide with any specific news release in the provided context, but rather appears to reflect strengthening conviction based on these pre-existing data points as the November 3 earnings report approaches.
- Since last update (~12h): The model's conviction for 'Above 60.5 million' DAUs caused the edge to flip, rising +34.8pp.
- Model's probability for 'Above 61 million' increased sharply by +40.2pp, compressing the edge.
- Our model increased 'Above 60 million' conviction by +27.9pp, leading to edge compression.
- Overall, the model's edge against the market compressed by +2.1pp over the last ~11.6h.
- Q3 DAUs likely to exceed 60 million, driven by strong analyst forecasts.
- Bullish Evercore, DA Davidson forecasts suggest DAUs could reach 64 million.
- Company Q3 results announcement on November 3, 2026 will confirm DAUs.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 60 million | 86.0% | 84.1% | Market higher by 1.9pp |
| Above 59.5 million | 83.0% | 84.1% | Model higher by 1.1pp |
| Above 61.5 million | 53.0% | 50.4% | Market higher by 2.6pp |
| Above 64 million | 20.0% | 13.1% | Market higher by 6.9pp |
| Above 63 million | 37.0% | 27.8% | Market higher by 9.2pp |
Current Context
Duolingo's Q3 2026 results are pending, with official guidance available. As of October 24, 2026, Duolingo had not reported its Q3 2026 results; the latest official quarter is Q2 2026, which reported 58.7 million average daily active users, up 23% year-over-year, and 140.6 million monthly active users, up 10% [1]. Official Q3 2026 guidance projects $307 million in bookings, $302 million in revenue, and $76 million in adjusted EBITDA, implying 8.9% bookings growth, 11.1% revenue growth, and a 25.2% adjusted EBITDA margin [1]. Full-year 2026 guidance is set at $1.285 billion bookings, $1.207 billion revenue, and $320 million adjusted EBITDA at a 26.5% margin [1]. The Q3 2026 earnings release is expected Tuesday, November 3, 2026, after market close, with a 5:00 p.m. ET call [2]. Published consensus estimates generally range from $303.2 million to $309.3 million in revenue and $0.57 to $0.58 in EPS [2].
Market and analyst estimates suggest stronger Q3 DAU growth. Kalshi's Q3 daily active users (DAU) market shows a 53% probability of exceeding 61.5 million DAUs and a 47% probability of exceeding 62.0 million [3]. The market's displayed trader forecast is 61.885 million DAUs, representing a 5.4% sequential increase from Q2's 58.7 million [3]. Recent analyst checks indicate more bullish trends; DA Davidson's tracking of over 170,000 users suggested Q3 DAU growth around 26%–28% [4]. Evercore cited Sensor Tower's 17% year-over-year Q3 growth to date and modeled 24% Q3 growth [5]. Both firms adjusted their outlooks: DA Davidson raised its price target to $175, and Evercore upgraded to Outperform with a $210 target [4].
Management prioritizes user growth, but a Q4 bonus poses a risk. Duolingo's strategic focus remains on user growth and retention, with CEO Luis von Ahn targeting 100 million DAUs by 2028 [6]. Retention reportedly reached 84%, and the company is expanding AI-enabled speaking features along with math, music, and chess offerings [6]. Commentary also noted slower paid-subscriber growth and potential trade-offs between monetization and margins [5]. A key risk involves a planned Q4 DAU-linked employee bonus; if Q4 DAU growth reaches at least 25%, the payout could exceed $10 million, potentially reducing reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA and leading to a guidance reset, even if engagement accelerates [4].
Sources (6)
- 1Documentsec.gov
- 2Duolingo Q3 2026 Earnings Date & Estimatesmarketbeat.com
- 3Duolingo (DUOL) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
- 4DA Davidson raises Duolingo stock price target on DAU growth trends By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 5Evercore upgrades Duolingo, sees strong user growth and earnings upside By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 6Duolingo at Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference: growth first By Investing.cominvesting.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 October 20, 2026: 14.0pp spike
Price increased from 66.0% to 80.0%
Outcome: Above 61 million
What happened: The primary driver of the 14.0 percentage point spike on October 20, 2026, was a traditional news announcement concerning Duolingo's projected daily active users. On that day, DA Davidson raised Duolingo's price target to $175 from $160 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing proprietary tracking that revealed stronger-than-expected Q3 DAU trends and estimating year-over-year DAU growth between 26%–28% [1]. This analyst upgrade directly supported a higher probability for the "Above 61 million" outcome in the prediction market [1]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi prediction market concerns Duolingo's Daily Active Users (DAUs) for Q3. A 'YES' resolution occurs if Duolingo officially reports its Q3 DAUs to be above 62 million, while 'NO' resolves if they are 62 million or below. Trading for this market concludes on November 3rd at 4:00 PM EST, with settlement based on Duolingo's public Q3 DAU reports.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 59 million | $1.00 | $0.07 | 87% |
| Above 60 million | $0.96 | $0.12 | 86% |
| Above 61 million | $0.88 | $0.21 | 86% |
| Above 59.5 million | $0.99 | $0.08 | 83% |
| Above 60.5 million | $0.94 | $0.15 | 74% |
| Above 61.5 million | $0.75 | $0.34 | 53% |
| Above 62 million | $0.63 | $0.46 | 47% |
| Above 63 million | $0.46 | $0.63 | 37% |
| Above 62.5 million | $0.53 | $0.56 | 21% |
| Above 64 million | $0.25 | $0.84 | 20% |
| Above 63.5 million | $0.37 | $0.72 | 19% |
| Above 64.5 million | $0.16 | $0.93 | 5% |
| Above 65 million | $0.04 | $0.99 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Traders are debating whether Duolingo's Q3 daily active users (DAUs) will surpass 61.5 million, 62 million, or 62.5 million. There's a slight lean towards DAUs exceeding 61.5 million (53% Yes), but stronger skepticism about reaching 62 million (62% No) and a clear consensus against hitting 62.5 million (74% No). This aligns with recent DAU trends peaking around 61.8 million, suggesting difficulty in achieving higher thresholds.
5. Trust Index
Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release
Integrity risk· Information exposure
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score69Caution
Trade quality20% of score49High Risk
Trust score65Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. How do Q3 DAU growth estimates from third-party data providers like Sensor Tower compare to the growth implied by Kalshi's market forecast?
| Duolingo Q3 2026 DAU YoY Growth | Approximately 27% year over year [1] |
|---|---|
| Kalshi Q3 Implied DAUs | Approximately 61.885 million [2] |
| Kalshi Q3 Implied QoQ Growth | About 5.4% [2] |
Third-party estimates indicate strong Duolingo DAU growth for Q3 2026. Third-party data providers project Duolingo's Daily Active Users (DAU) year-over-year growth for Q3 2026 at approximately 27%, which is substantially higher than an analyst benchmark of about 20.2% for the same period [1][2]. Adding to this bullish outlook, Duolingo also briefly displayed an unvalidated preliminary internal estimate of 27.4% growth on August 17, 2026, though it was not official guidance [1][3].
Kalshi's market forecast suggests a specific DAU level for Q3. Kalshi's Q3 DAU market forecast implies approximately 61.885 million DAUs, representing about 5.4% quarter-over-quarter growth [2]. Market snapshots further indicated roughly a 50% probability of exceeding 60.0 60.5 million DAUs and a 49.5% probability of exceeding 61.0 61.5 million DAUs [4][5]. This implied Kalshi level was modestly above a separate analyst consensus benchmark of approximately 60.7 million Q3 DAUs [2]. However, a direct year-over-year growth comparison between Kalshi's forecast and the 27% third-party estimate is not feasible due to the absence of prior-year base information [1][2].
Sources (5)
- 1Duolingo's Implied Daily Active Users Growth Based on Third-...moomoo.com
- 2Duolingo (DUOL) earningskalshi.com
- 3Duolingo accidentally shows 27.4% DAU growthstocktitan.net
- 4Duolingo daily active users in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 5Duolingo daily active users in Q3 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
7. What is the evidence supporting bullish analyst forecasts from Evercore and DA Davidson for Duolingo's Q3 DAU growth?
| DA Davidson Q3 DAU Growth Forecast | 26.0%-28.0% year over year [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Duolingo August 2026 DAU Growth | 27.4% year over year [3] |
| Evercore ISI Current-User Retention | 84% [3] |
Bullish analyst forecasts from Evercore and DA Davidson predict strong Q3 DAU growth for Duolingo. These firms anticipate robust Q3 daily active user (DAU) growth for Duolingo, basing their optimistic outlook on a combination of proprietary tracking, extensive surveys, and detailed product analysis [1][2][3][4]. DA Davidson specifically projected Q3 DAU growth of 26.0%-28.0% year over year [1][2][3]. Evercore ISI's broader positive assessment is supported by survey data and long-term user expansion expectations [2][3][4].
DA Davidson's forecast relies on proprietary tracking of Duolingo users for its Q3 2026 bullish signal. This firm’s projection primarily stems from proprietary tracking of over 170,000 Duolingo users, which initially indicated Q3 DAU growth between 25.6% and 27.6% year over year, later refined to 26.0%-28.0% [1][2][3]. DA Davidson also noted 1.3% month-over-month growth in August and a significant acceleration in weekly growth toward the end of August [1][3]. Given Duolingo's Q2 baseline of 58.7 million DAUs and a reported August 2026 DAU growth of 27.4% year over year, which surpassed DA Davidson's tracked projection, actual Q3 reported growth could potentially meet or exceed this bullish range [3].
Evercore ISI's upgrade reflects comprehensive analysis and product improvements, rather than a precise Q3 estimate. Evercore ISI upgraded Duolingo from In Line to Outperform and doubled its price target from $105 to $210 [2][3][4]. Their analysis was more encompassing and focused on the medium-term, including proprietary survey data, assessments of product improvements, third-party DAU tracking, channel checks, and a sensitivity model targeting 100 million DAUs by 2028 [2][3][4]. Evercore's survey addressed concerns about AI substitution, finding that 63% of surveyed ChatGPT users who also use Duolingo engage daily. This survey attributed enhanced engagement to AI-driven features and reported an 84% current-user retention rate [3]. Although Evercore did not publish a standalone Q3 DAU forecast in the available research, its findings strongly corroborate the bullish Q3 DAU-growth thesis by highlighting improved engagement and retention [1][2][3].
8. What key data releases or company announcements before the November 3rd earnings report could signal a beat or miss on Q3 DAU expectations?
| DAU Consensus Estimate | approximately 60.7-million [1] |
|---|---|
| Q2 Current User Retention Rate (CURR) | record 84% [1] |
| Company Operating-Metric Releases (Aug 5 - Oct 24) | None directly disclosing DAUs [2][3] |
Company press releases and commentary are primary indicators for Duolingo's DAU performance. Key signals for Duolingo's Q3 2026 daily active users (DAUs) primarily involve company-issued press releases or SEC filings disclosing preliminary September or Q3 metrics [2][1][4]. Additionally, management commentary discussing user retention, product experiments, marketing initiatives, or changes impacting free-user friction could also indicate performance [1]. As of October 24, Duolingo's investor relations resources and press releases do not show any company operating-metric releases directly disclosing DAUs issued between the August 5 Q2 results and that date [2][3].
External data and retention rates offer additional insights into DAU trends. External data sources such as Apptopia or Sensor Tower trends related to DAUs and user sessions, alongside changes in app-store download and ranking data, can serve as weaker proxies for user engagement [1]. Analyst estimate revisions, moving towards or away from the approximately 60.7-million consensus DAU estimate, could also provide an indication [1]. Sustained or improving Current User Retention Rate (CURR) would support a Q3 DAU beat, while deterioration would warn of a miss [1]. Duolingo's Q2 CURR was a record 84%, which was approximately 1 percentage point above the prior year [1].
9. What do Duolingo's historical Q2-to-Q3 DAU growth trends from 2023-2025 suggest for the Q3 2026 outcome?
| Projected Q3 2026 DAUs | 53.3M-53.6M [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Q2-to-Q3 sequential DAU increase (2023-2025) | 2.8M-3.1M users [1][2][3][4][5] |
| Q2-to-Q3 2025 sequential DAU percentage increase | +5.9% [1][2][3][4][5] |
Duolingo's Q3 2026 daily active users are projected to be around 53.3M-53.6M. This estimate assumes the absolute sequential increase from Q2 to Q3 remains consistent with observed historical trends [1][2][3][4][5]. However, a precise estimate leveraging the latest percentage growth rate would require the actual Q2 2026 baseline figure [1][2][3][4][5].
Historical Q2-to-Q3 DAU growth shows a consistent absolute increase. Analysis of trends from 2023 to 2025 reveals a consistent absolute sequential increase, alongside a declining percentage growth. In 2023, DAUs grew by 2.8M (+13.1%) from 21.4M to 24.2M [1][2][3][4][5]. This was followed by a 3.1M (+9.1%) increase in 2024, from 34.1M to 37.2M, and a 2.8M (+5.9%) increase in 2025, from 47.7M to 50.5M [1][2][3][4][5]. The sequential Q2-to-Q3 increase remained notably within the 2.8M-3.1M user range, while the percentage increase decreased as the Q2 base expanded [1][2][3][4][5].
Year-over-year Q3 DAU growth has consistently decelerated. This deceleration is evident from 63% in Q3 2023 to 54% in Q3 2024, and further to 36% in Q3 2025, partly due to lapping an exceptional Q3 2024 performance [3][5]. While a simple trend extrapolation suggests Q3 2026 DAUs around 53.3M-53.6M based on consistent absolute gains, applying the latest 5.9% sequential rate would only produce a similar estimate if Q2 2026 were approximately 50M-51M, underscoring the importance of the actual Q2 2026 baseline for an exact point estimate [1][2][3][4][5].
10. How do Duolingo's Q3 2026 user growth and engagement metrics compare to those of its main competitor, Babbel?
| Duolingo Q2 2026 Daily Active Users (DAUs) | 58.7 million (+23% year over year) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Duolingo Q3 2026 DAU Expectation | Approximately 60–62 million [3] |
| Babbel Cumulative Subscriptions Sold | More than 30 million by May 2026 [3][4][5] |
Duolingo's Q3 2026 user metrics are not yet reported. As of October 24, 2026, Duolingo's Q3 2026 results had not yet been reported, meaning its actual daily active users (DAUs) for the quarter were unavailable [1][2][6][7]. For context, Duolingo reported 56.5 million DAUs in Q1 2026, a 21% increase year-over-year, and 58.7 million DAUs in Q2 2026, marking a 23% year-over-year growth [1][2]. Market expectations for Duolingo's Q3 2026 DAUs generally clustered around 60.5–61.5 million, with the Q2 2026 engagement trajectory implying figures between approximately 60 and 62 million [8][6][7][3].
Directly comparing Duolingo and Babbel Q3 2026 data is not feasible. A direct, like-for-like comparison of user growth and engagement metrics between Duolingo and Babbel for Q3 2026 is not possible, as Babbel does not publicly disclose specific Q3 2026 daily active users (DAU), monthly active users (MAU), or comparable quarterly engagement series [3][9][10]. Instead, Babbel's public materials highlight cumulative achievements, including over 30 million subscriptions sold by May 2026, 60,000 lessons across 15 languages, and historical Babbel Live activity of up to 15,000 classes per month [3][4][5]. These details offer directional insights rather than direct Q3 key performance indicator comparisons [3][4][5].
Sources (10)
- 1Shareholder Letterinvestors.duolingo.com
- 2Shareholder Letter dated May 4, 2026sec.gov
- 3Babbel Named to 2026 GSV 150 as One of the World's Most Transformational Companies in Digital Learningbabbel.com
- 4Babbel Sees Record Month with Babbel Live and B2B Acceleratinguk.babbel.com
- 5Babbel scales Apple Ads with SplitMetrics Acquiresplitmetrics.com
- 6Duolingo daily active users in Q3 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 7Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) Stock Price, News & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
- 8Duolingo daily active users in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 9Language Learning Apps Statistics 2026quantumrun.com
- 10Highest-grossing language learning apps globally 2026statista.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Duolingo will report Q3 2026 results after the U.S. market close on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with a 5:00 p.m. ET webcast [1][2]. The company's Q2 2026 baseline reported 58.7 million average DAUs, up 23% year over year from 47.7 million; paid subscribers reached 12.7 million at quarter-end, an increase of 17% [2][3]. Q3 2026 guidance includes $302 million revenue, $307 million bookings, and $76 million adjusted EBITDA, implying 11.1%, 8.9%, and 25.2% margins/growth metrics, respectively [2][4][5]. Full-year guidance includes $1.207 billion revenue, $1.285 billion bookings, and approximately 26.5% adjusted EBITDA margin [2][4][5]. Management stated Q3/Q4 DAU growth should remain above 20%, reflecting a deliberate investment in user growth over near-term monetization [4][6]. While Q2 revenue exceeded expectations, the Q3 revenue outlook was slightly below consensus [4][6].
Kalshi pricing as of October 24, 2026, indicated approximately 53% probability of Q3 DAUs above 61.5 million, 47% above 62.0 million, and 21% above 62.5 million [7][8]. The platform's trader forecast was approximately 61.885 million DAUs and 13.209 million paid subscribers [7][8]. External indicators present a bullish view: Evercore estimates 24% Q3 DAU growth and 27% Q4 growth, citing 84% retention and product expansion [9]. DA Davidson's October 20 tracking of over 170,000 users suggested Q3 growth of 26%-28%, though it noted moderation in October month-over-month activity [10]. A key binary catalyst is the Q4 DAU bonus; if Q4 DAU growth reaches at least 25%, Duolingo may incur roughly $10 million or more of cash compensation, potentially reducing FY2026 EBITDA guidance/margin despite strong user growth [6][10].
A bull case would see Q3 DAUs surpassing roughly 62 million, growth reaccelerating toward 24%-28%, retention and new products supporting the 100 million DAU 2028 target, and improved bookings/revenue momentum [4][6][9][10]. Conversely, a bear case involves DAUs landing near or below the low-61-million market threshold, weak monetization/bookings per user, a Q3 revenue miss against the $302 million guide, or pressure on EBITDA from the Q4 bonus [4][6][9][10]. The immediate post-release reaction to DAUs, paid subscribers, bookings, revenue, EBITDA, and Q4 DAU outlook is key following the November 3 Q3 earnings webcast [1][2][7][10]. The subsequent catalyst is Q4 2026 results and FY2027 guidance, expected after year-end [10].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 05, 2027
- Closes: March 05, 2027
Sources (10)
- 1Duolingo to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Results on Tuesday,globenewswire.com
- 2Shareholder Letterinvestors.duolingo.com
- 3duol-20260630sec.gov
- 4Duolingo's soft quarterly revenue outlook overshadows...reuters.com
- 5Duolingo, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Third Quarter and Full Year of 2026 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 6Duolingo (DUOL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 7Duolingo daily active users in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 8Duolingo (DUOL) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
- 9Evercore upgrades Duolingo, sees strong user growth and earnings upside By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 10DA Davidson raises Duolingo stock price target on DAU growth trends By Investing.cominvesting.com
