Above 13.9 million
Market Model 8.0% 7.5%
Above 13.7 million
Market Model 20.0% 16.3%
Topic tracker · Financials
Duolingo KPI
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (2 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Duolingo KPI markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 30, 2026
Live markets
Above 60 million
Market Model 78.0% 56.2%
Above 59.5 million
Market Model 83.0% 70.1%
