Airbnb bookings in Q3 Kalshi
Above 138 million
Market Model 88.0% 96.5%
Above 140 million
Market Model 81.0% 95.0%
Topic tracker · Financials
Airbnb KPI
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (2 live, 1 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Airbnb KPI markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 29, 2026
Live markets
Airbnb bookings in Q2 Kalshi
Above 156 million
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Above 141 million
Market Model 99.0% 83.3%
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Airbnb bookings in Q1 2026 | May 30, 2026 | 100.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
