Airbnb bookings in Q3
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~12h): Headline model probability dropped 31.9pp, shifting the market-model edge to -6.4pp.
- For "Above 138 million," the model (model_led) dropped 9.7pp, causing the edge to flip.
- For "Above 140 million," the model (model_led) also dropped 9.0pp, resulting in an edge flip.
- Model conviction for "Above 146 million" surged 30.2pp (model_led) as the market remained flat.
- Bookings above 140 million are likely given sustained Q3 travel industry demand.
- Airbnb's optimistic outlook and strong Experiences growth support higher bookings.
- Exceeding 152 million appears less probable, given Airbnb's specific growth guidance.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 146 million | 71.0% | 64.6% | Market higher by 6.4pp |
| Above 150 million | 24.0% | 23.1% | Market higher by 0.9pp |
| Above 148 million | 49.0% | 38.2% | Market higher by 10.8pp |
| Above 138 million | 88.0% | 86.8% | Market higher by 1.2pp |
| Above 140 million | 90.0% | 86.0% | Market higher by 4.0pp |
Current Context
Sources (10)
- 1EX-99.1sec.gov
- 2Airbnb Q2 2026 financial resultsnews.airbnb.com
- 3Airbnb to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Results - ADVFNuk.advfn.com
- 4Investor Relations | Airbnb | Homeinvestors.airbnb.com
- 5Airbnb Q3 2026 Earnings Date & Estimatesmarketbeat.com
- 6Bernstein reiterates rating for Airbnb stock ahead of third-quarter resultsad-hoc-news.de
- 7Airbnb (ABNB) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
- 8Airbnb bookings in Q3: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 9Airbnb bookings in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 10Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summaryearningscalls.dev
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 148 million
📉 October 24, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 53.0% to 44.0%
Outcome: Above 146 million
📈 October 18, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 62.0% to 71.0%
📉 October 14, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 72.0% to 62.0%
Sources (10)
- 1Airbnb hosts launch online petition against check-out chores ban - ABC Newsabc.net.au
- 2Airbnb (ABNB) Reddit Mentions & Stock Sentimentadanos.com
- 3Topic $abnb | LunarCrush for AIlunarcrush.ai
- 4Airbnb sube 10,6% con búsqueda por IA e Instacartportal.thebenchmark.es
- 5Airbnb (ABNB) Expands AI Travel Tools, Is The Stock Still Undervalued?finance.yahoo.com
- 6Airbnb stock sits at EUR 154.08 as AI tools broaden travelad-hoc-news.de
- 7Up 10% in the Last Two Weeks, Is Airbnb the Perfect Stock for Today's Market? | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 8News Pageh5.ainvest.com
- 9How Investors Are Reacting To Airbnb (ABNB) AI Search Rollout - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
- 10AI Agents Are Repricing the Online Travel Booking Business · Tyrian Tradetyriantrade.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi contract resolves to 'Yes' if Airbnb's official "Total Nights and Seats Booked" for Q3 is strictly greater than 148,000,000. Conversely, a 'No' resolution occurs if this figure is 148,000,000 or less. Trading for this specific market closes on November 5 at 4:00 PM EST, and the maximum payout date is listed as March 5, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 140 million | $0.96 | $0.12 | 90% |
| Above 138 million | $0.97 | $0.11 | 88% |
| Above 142 million | $0.93 | $0.16 | 84% |
| Above 144 million | $0.85 | $0.24 | 74% |
| Above 146 million | $0.74 | $0.35 | 71% |
| Above 148 million | $0.56 | $0.53 | 49% |
| Above 152 million | $0.29 | $0.80 | 28% |
| Above 150 million | $0.35 | $0.73 | 24% |
| Above 154 million | $0.22 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Above 156 million | $0.13 | $0.96 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of October 24, 2026, prediction markets imply Airbnb's Q3 2026 nights and experiences booked will be roughly 147.8 million, with the central 50% range estimated between 144.64–150.84 million [1][2][3][4][5]. Traders assign approximately 71–72% probability to exceeding 146 million and 53% to exceeding 148 million, but only 30% to exceeding 150 million, indicating concentration in the high-140-million range rather than a clear breakout [1][2][3][4][5]. Analyst coverage notes the earnings debate centers on whether bookings and revenue can meet elevated expectations, with one cited consensus for Q3 revenue at approximately $4.75 billion [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Airbnb bookings in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2Airbnb (ABNB) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
- 3Airbnb Bookings Q3 2026 Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 4Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) Prediction Markets: Odds & Outlook | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 5Airbnb bookings in Q3: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 6Bernstein reiterates rating for Airbnb stock ahead of third-quarter resultsad-hoc-news.de
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. How does the prediction market's forecast for Q3 2026 bookings (~147.7M) reconcile with Airbnb's official guidance and Wall Street consensus estimates?
| Implied Q3 2026 Nights & Experiences | 147.7–147.9 million (Kalshi-derived distribution) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Q3 Revenue Guidance | $4.69–$4.77 billion [4] |
| Q2 2026 Bookings | 148 million [4] |
Sources (5)
- 1Airbnb bookings in Q3: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 2Airbnb bookings in Q3 (nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 3Airbnb bookings in Q3 - Kalshi KXABNB-26NOVNEB Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 4Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) Surprises With Q2 CY2026 Sales...stockstory.org
- 5Airbnb bookings in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
7. What impact did the expansion of Airbnb Experiences and other services have on the total 'Nights and Experiences Booked' metric in Q3 2026?
| Experiences supply increase | Nearly 80% year over year in Q2 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Q2 Nights and Seats Booked growth | 10% year over year [1][2] |
| Q3 Nights and Experiences Booked estimate | 147.8–147.9 million (prediction market, Oct 24) [3][4][5][6] |
Sources (6)
- 1Airbnb, Q2 2026 Shareholder Letters26.q4cdn.com
- 2EX-99.1sec.gov
- 3Airbnb bookings in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 4Airbnb bookings in Q3: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 5Airbnb bookings in Q3 (nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 6Airbnb bookings in Q3 - Kalshi KXABNB-26NOVNEB Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
8. How did the reported Q3 2026 performance of competitors like Booking Holdings and Expedia Group compare to Airbnb's projected growth?
| Airbnb Market-Implied Q3 2026 Bookings Volume | Approximately 147.94 million nights and experiences (as of October 24, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Airbnb 2026 Revenue Growth Outlook | Low-to-mid-teens [2] |
| Booking Holdings Q3 Room-Nights Growth Guidance | 3%-5% [3][4][5][6] |
Sources (10)
- 1Airbnb bookings in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2ABNB 2026 Q2 Earnings Call - Airbnb, Inc.perplexity.ai
- 3Booking Holdings Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial...s25.q4cdn.com
- 4Booking Holdings Inc Earnings Reports, Summaries &...morningstar.com
- 5Booking Holdings (BKNG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfortune.com
- 6Booking.com Q2 2026 Earnings: Domestic Travel Offsets...rentalscaleup.com
- 7Airbnb bookings in Q3 (nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 8Expedia Group Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsir.expediagroup.com
- 9Expedia Group Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultssec.gov
- 10Earnings Release - Q2 2026s202.q4cdn.com
9. What alternative data from providers like AirDNA or Similarweb reveals about Airbnb's booking and web traffic trends during Q3 2026?
| Q3 2026 Nights and Experiences Booked (median prediction) | 147.8 million [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Airbnb Q2 Revenue Growth | up 17% to $3.6 billion [4] |
| Airbnb.com Global Rank in Travel and Tourism (Aug 2026) | #3 [5] |
Sources (10)
- 1Airbnb bookings in Q3: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 2Airbnb Bookings Q3 2026 Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 3Airbnb bookings in Q3 - Kalshi KXABNB-26NOVNEB Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 4Q2 2026 Earnings: What Airbnb, Vrbo & Booking Mean for...airdna.co
- 5热门旅行和旅游网站排名 | Similarwebsimilarweb.com
- 6US 2026 Short-Term Rental Outlook Reportairdna.co
- 7Top Travel and Tourism Websites Ranking in United States | Similarwebsimilarweb.com
- 8Using AI Studiosupport.similarweb.com
- 9How to Research a Company: The Ultimate Guidesimilarweb.com
- 10Airbnb bookings in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
10. What do key travel industry indicators from Q3 2026, such as TSA throughput and hotel occupancy rates, suggest about overall lodging demand?
| TSA Daily Screenings Peak | 2.98 million (June 21) [1] |
|---|---|
| July 2026 Hotel Occupancy | 69.7% (+2.3% YoY) [2] |
| Week ending July 18 Hotel RevPAR | $126.33 (+6.3% YoY) [3] |
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 05, 2027
- Closes: March 05, 2027
Sources (9)
- 1Airbnb to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Resultsprnewswire.com
- 2Investor Relations | Airbnb | Homeinvestors.airbnb.com
- 3Airbnb to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Resultsfinance.yahoo.com
- 4Airbnb bookings in Q3: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 5Airbnb (ABNB) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
- 6Airbnb Q3 2026 Earnings Date & Estimatesmarketbeat.com
- 7Airbnb, Inc. Class A Common Stock (ABNB) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 83Q26 Travel Earnings Preview: Mixed Signals, Still Healthy Demand, AI Back in the Frame | Deutsche Bank | Finvaultafinvaulta.com
- 9prorexevents.pxmarkets.ai