Airbnb Inc. nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Bookings above 570 million likely given the 2026 FIFA World Cup impact. Q1 2026 growth and emerging market expansion support strong full-year bookings. * Surpassing 580 million requires 424 million bookings in remaining 2026 quarters.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 600 million | 4.0% | 10.4% | Model higher by 6.4pp |
| Above 595 million | 5.0% | 30.2% | Model higher by 25.2pp |
| Above 575 million | 40.0% | 30.2% | Market higher by 9.8pp |
| Above 570 million | 63.0% | 74.4% | Model higher by 11.4pp |
| Above 590 million | 12.0% | 30.2% | Model higher by 18.2pp |
Current Context
Sources (8)
- 1Airbnb Q1 2026 financial resultsnews.airbnb.com
- 2Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) 8-K Earnings Release - May 2026last10k.com
- 3Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)s26.q4cdn.com
- 4Airbnb (ABNB) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 5Airbnb Raised Its 2026 Guidance After Q1 Revenue Grew 18%. Is the Stock Undervalued? | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 6Airbnb Stock Looks Fully Valued. The EPS Trajectory Says Otherwise. | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 7The Premium On Airbnb Keeps Growing. So Does The Case For Booking | Trefistrefis.com
- 8Philadelphia offering free trains at end of World Cup games - ESPNglobal.espn.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 July 29, 2026: 76.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 77.0%
Outcome: Above 570 million
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves based on Airbnb Inc.'s total nights and experiences booked in fiscal year 2026. A "Yes" resolution is triggered if the reported figure exceeds the contract's specified threshold (e.g., above 565 million), while a "No" resolution occurs if it is at or below that threshold. The market for trading concludes on February 12, 4:00pm EST, with a maximum payout date of May 13, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 565 million | $0.88 | $0.21 | 70% |
| Above 570 million | $0.71 | $0.37 | 63% |
| Above 575 million | $0.41 | $0.63 | 40% |
| Above 580 million | $0.28 | $0.81 | 18% |
| Above 590 million | $0.12 | $0.92 | 12% |
| Above 585 million | $0.15 | $0.90 | 9% |
| Above 595 million | $0.08 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Above 600 million | $0.08 | $0.95 | 4% |
Market Discussion
Airbnb reported 156.2 million Nights and Seats Booked in Q1 2026, marking a 9% year-over-year increase [1][2][3][4]. Despite this, the company expects Nights and Seats Booked growth to slightly decelerate in Q2 2026, anticipating a 100-basis-point headwind due to the Middle East conflict [1][2][5][4]. This conflict's competitive impact on booking volumes, alongside Airbnb's fee-based model and AI initiatives, is a notable topic in social media and trader discussions, even as Airbnb raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance [6][7][2][5].
Sources (7)
- 1Airbnb Shareholders' Letters26.q4cdn.com
- 2Airbnb Q1 2026 financial resultsnews.airbnb.com
- 3Airbnb reports mixed results for Q1, raises full-year outlook | NASDAQ:ABNB, XETRA:6Z1proactiveinvestors.com
- 4Airbnb Q1 2026 shareholder letters26.q4cdn.com
- 5Airbnb flags Middle East war impact on second-quarter growthglobalbankingandfinance.com
- 6Airbnb Raised Its 2026 Guidance After Q1 Revenue Grew 18%. Is the Stock Undervalued? | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 7Airbnb's Q1 2026 Revenue: 18% YoY Growth, 14-15% Host Fees | Houfy.com - No Fee Direct Booking posted on the topic | LinkedInlinkedin.com
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What is the projected impact of the 2026 FIFA World Cup partnership on Airbnb's nights and experiences booked?
| Total Revenue (Host Cities STRs) | $1.33 billion (June 10–July 19, 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Projected Airbnb Guest Nights | 2.7 million (pre-tournament estimate) [3] |
| Projected Hosted Guests (Official Partnership) | Over 380,000 [4][5][6] |
Sources (7)
- 1FIFA World Cup 2026™ set to be Airbnb’s biggest-ever eventnews.airbnb.com
- 2Vacation Rentals in World Cup Host Cities Made Staggering $1.3Brealtor.com
- 3AirDNA: World Cup demand spreads beyond host citiestraveldailynews.com
- 4FIFAinside.fifa.com
- 5Airbnb and FIFA announce major multi-tournament...inside.fifa.com
- 6FIFAinside.fifa.com
- 7Airbnb Q1 2026 Financial Results: Revenue Beat, EPS Miss, and AI Strategy Insights - News and Statistics - IndexBoxindexbox.io
7. How does Airbnb's year-over-year growth in nights booked during 2026 compare to projections for competitors like Booking Holdings and Expedia Group?
| Airbnb Q1 2026 Nights & Experiences Growth | 9% year-over-year increase [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Booking Holdings Q1 2026 Room Nights Growth | 6% year-over-year growth [3][4] |
| Expedia Group Q4 2025 Room Nights Growth | 9% year-over-year growth [5][6][3] |
Sources (7)
- 1Airbnb Q1 2026 Earnings: What 2.7B Revenue and 9% Booking Growth Mean for STR Investors | StaySTRA.comstaystra.com
- 2Airbnb’s $90 Billion Growth Story Is Far From Peaking - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
- 3Booking Holdings (BKNG) - Fundamental Analysis Report 2026 (Updated)deepresearchglobal.com
- 4Booking Beats on Profit. Travel Demand Outlook Clouded...barrons.com
- 5Documentsec.gov
- 6Q4 2025 Earnings Presentations202.q4cdn.com
- 7Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) 10-Q Quarterly Report May 2026last10k.com
8. Based on its Q1 2026 results, what quarterly booking trajectory is required for Airbnb to surpass 580 million nights and experiences for the full year?
| Q1 2026 Nights and Seats Booked | 156 million [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Additional bookings needed for Q2-Q4 2026 | 424 million [1][2][3][4][5] |
| Average bookings needed per quarter (Q2-Q4) | 141.33 million [1][2][3][4][5] |
9. What alternative data from sources like SimilarWeb or App Annie can provide leading indicators for Airbnb's booking momentum through Q2 and Q3 2026?
| Nights and Experiences Booked (Q1 2026) | 156.2 million [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Year-over-Year Increase (Q1 2026) | 9% [1][2][3] |
| Key Leading Indicators | Monthly web traffic, mobile app downloads, first-time booker growth, social media engagement [4][5][6] |
Sources (8)
- 1U.S. Review June 2026: World Cup Demand Drives a Stronger Summerairdna.co
- 2Airbnb Q1 2026 Earnings: What 2.7B Revenue and 9% Booking Growth Mean for STR Investors | StaySTRA.comstaystra.com
- 3Airbnb Q1 2026 financial resultsnews.airbnb.com
- 4Airbnb (ABNB) Stock Analysis: AI Score, Insider Trading & Alternative Data | AltIndexaltindex.com
- 5Airbnb (ABNB) Web Traffic: Monthly Visitors & Growth Trends | AltIndexaltindex.com
- 6Airbnb (ABNB) AI Stock Analysis: AI Score & Signal Breakdown 2026 | AltIndexaltindex.com
- 7Airbnb Q4 Web Traffic Rose 9% Year Over Year | Similarwebsimilarweb.com
- 8Airbnb Pulling Away from Peers in a Rising Market 1Q Saw Strong Growth | Similarwebsimilarweb.com
10. How significantly could Airbnb's strategic expansion into emerging markets like India and Brazil contribute to its total nights booked in fiscal 2026?
| Expansion Markets Night Growth Rate | approximately twice the rate of its core markets [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| India Q1 2026 Origin Nights Growth | approximately 50% year-over-year [1][2][4] |
| India Q1 2026 First-Time Booker Growth | over 75% year-over-year [1][2][4] |
Sources (5)
- 1Airbnb Shareholders' Letters26.q4cdn.com
- 2Airbnb Q1 2026 financial resultsnews.airbnb.com
- 3Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)s26.q4cdn.com
- 4Airbnb 1Q'26: Growth Acceleration Despite War Headwindmbideepdives.substack.com
- 5India is the future and will be one of the biggest markets for us: Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky - The Economic Timeseconomictimes.indiatimes.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 13, 2027
- Closes: May 13, 2027
Sources (9)
- 1Airbnb Q1 2026 financial resultsnews.airbnb.com
- 2Airbnb (ABNB) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 3Airbnb Stock Looks Fully Valued. The EPS Trajectory Says Otherwise. | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 4Perimeter Solutions (PRM): A Niche Monopoly, One Acquisition at a Timeyoutube.com
- 5Philadelphia offering free trains at end of World Cup games - ESPNglobal.espn.com
- 6Philadelphia offering free trains at end of World Cup games - ESPNespn.com
- 7Airbnb Just Broke Out to Its Highest Level in Years in 2026. Here’s Where the Stock Could Go Next | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 8Airbnb Raised Its 2026 Guidance After Q1 Revenue Grew 18%. Is the Stock Undervalued? | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 9Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) 8-K Earnings Release - May 2026last10k.com