Lowe's customer transactions in fiscal 2026

Lowe's Q3 earnings report on November 18 will influence its full-year transaction forecast. The fiscal 2026 Q3 earnings report, scheduled for November 18, 2026, is expected to significantly influence Lowe's full-year transaction forecast, primarily through the reported Q3 transaction percentage and accompanying management commentary. Lowe's has given no explicit customer-transaction target for fiscal year 2026 in the cited Q2 materials ^[5][4][1][2]. Given that comparable transactions declined 2.1% year over year in Q2, a meaningful rebound in Q3 transactions would be necessary to improve the full-year outcome. Without such a rebound, the report is more likely to reinforce a lower full-year transaction outcome ^[1][2].

Management attributed Q2 transaction pressure to several key headwinds. During Q2, management identified several factors contributing to transaction pressure, including weakness in weather-sensitive outdoor and seasonal categories, persistent DIY consumer softness, general consumer cautiousness, and broader housing and macroeconomic pressures ^[2]. While key demand drivers like growth in Pro customer engagement, online sales, and home-services were noted as offsetting factors entering Q3, management characterized the consumer and housing backdrop as challenging. The company also anticipated Q3 adjusted earnings per share to be approximately 7% below the prior-year quarter ^[2][3].

Lowe's full-year transaction forecast faces both bullish and bearish scenarios. A bullish scenario for the transaction forecast would materialize if Q3 transactions stabilize or turn positive. This outcome would require Pro sales, online channels, services, and effective holiday and seasonal execution to successfully counter ongoing DIY weakness ^[1][2]. Such a performance could improve expectations for the total fiscal year 2026 transactions and challenge the market's current very low odds of exceeding 740 million ^[1][2]. Conversely, a bearish scenario would involve another decline in Q3 transactions, particularly if discretionary DIY spending, weather-sensitive categories, or housing-linked demand remains weak ^[1][2]. In this situation, management may signal a lower transaction trajectory, making thresholds above 740 million increasingly difficult to achieve ^[1][2]. As of November 2, 2026, market platforms displayed less than 1% probability for contracts exceeding 740 million, 745 million, and 750 million customer transactions. These figures were noted as weak market signals due to low trading volume, rather than robust consensus estimates ^[4].

Recent indicators largely confirm persistent DIY consumer caution for fiscal 2026. Macroeconomic evidence points to ongoing caution in DIY consumer spending, particularly impacting transaction volume due to factors hindering project initiation ^[1][4][5][6]. Lowe's Q2 fiscal 2026 results underscored this trend, reporting cautious customers, pressure on discretionary DIY demand, and a 2.1% decline in comparable transactions ^[1]. Consequently, management adjusted its full-year fiscal 2026 sales guidance to approximately $92 billion, anticipating roughly flat comparable sales and assuming these trends will persist into the second half of the year ^[1][2]. This cautious sentiment is further supported by October 2026 household sentiment data, which revealed deteriorating perceptions and expectations regarding personal finances ^[4]. The University of Michigan's surveys also reported sentiment 10% lower than a year prior, with conditions for purchasing durable goods plunging 18% due to high interest rates and affordability concerns ^[5]. Furthermore, housing and remodeling data from Harvard's LIRA projects a slowdown in homeowner improvement and maintenance spending growth, reaching 2.1% by mid-2026 and 1.6% by year-end, attributing this to elevated interest rates and weakened housing market activity ^[3].

Despite caution, underlying consumer health and broader spending remain resilient. While consumer caution is evident, it does not suggest widespread distress. Lowe's analysis indicates that its core middle-income homeowner base possesses strong personal balance sheets, experiencing real disposable-income growth, residing in older homes, and benefiting from increased equity ^[1]. The company characterized these consumers as healthy but overly cautious, prioritizing necessary repair and maintenance projects over larger, discretionary expenditures ^[1]. Broader macroeconomic activity offers a partial counterbalance, with the Federal Reserve noting resilient domestic spending, a strong pace of economic expansion, consumer spending likely growing above 3% in Q3, and job gains keeping pace with workforce growth ^[7]. Retail spending in November also demonstrated resilience, with overall retail sales increasing 0.6% month over month and core retail sales rising 0.4% ^[8][9]. These factors suggest potential upside risks if interest rates or affordability conditions were to improve ^[1][4][5][6].

In the first half of fiscal 2026, both The Home Depot and Lowe's experienced declines in customer transactions, although both retailers successfully mitigated the impact of weaker transaction volume with larger average ticket sizes ^[1][4]. The Home Depot recorded a smaller decline in customer transactions compared to Lowe's during this period, ultimately leading to higher comparable sales growth ^[1][4].

The Home Depot reported a modest transaction decline with increased ticket size in the first six months of fiscal 2026. Total customer transactions amounted to 834.3 million, representing a 0.9% decrease from the previous year, with comparable customer transactions declining by 1.2% ^[1][2]. This trend was observed from Q1, where comparable transactions decreased 1.3%, and continued into Q2, with a 1.0% decline in comparable transactions ^[5][1][4]. Despite the fewer transactions, Home Depot's average ticket size increased by 2.5% to $92.62, which contributed to a 1.2% increase in comparable sales for the first half of fiscal 2026 ^[1][2].

Lowe's experienced a larger transaction decline despite higher average tickets in the first half of fiscal 2026. The retailer reported 416 million customer transactions, an approximately 1.9% decline from the prior year ^[3][4]. Its average ticket for the first half rose by about 1.9% to $107.78, which helped its comparable sales increase by 0.4% ^[1][4]. When comparing Q2 performance, Lowe's comparable transactions declined 2.1%, which was more substantial than Home Depot's 1.0% decrease in comparable transactions ^[1][4]. Consequently, Home Depot's first-half comparable sales growth of 1.2% surpassed Lowe's 0.4% ^[1][4].

Lowe's consistently shows strong seasonal transaction patterns across fiscal years 2023-2025. From fiscal years 2023 through 2025, customer transactions consistently recorded the highest sales volume in fiscal Q2 and the lowest in fiscal Q4 ^[6]. The average quarterly shares of annual transactions during this period were approximately Q1 26.0%, Q2 29.3%, Q3 23.9%, and Q4 20.8% ^{[1][2][3][4][5]}. This seasonal pattern indicates that Q2 transactions were about 1.41 times the average quarter, while Q4 transactions were about 0.83 times the average quarter ^{[1][2][3][4][5]}. The ranking across fiscal 2023–2025 consistently placed Q2 as the highest, Q1 generally second, Q3 third, and Q4 lowest in transaction volume ^{[1][2][3][4][5]}.

Annual transaction volumes have seen a slight decline from fiscal 2023 to 2025. On a fiscal-2025 restated basis, annual customer transactions were approximately 827 million for fiscal year 2023, 801 million for fiscal year 2024, and 780 million for fiscal year 2025 ^{[1][4][5][7][2]}. Illustrating the quarterly distribution, fiscal year 2023 saw transactions approximate Q1 221 million (26.7%), Q2 250 million (30.2%), Q3 197 million (23.8%), and Q4 159 million (19.2%) ^[1][5].

Lowe's Q2 FY2026 comparable sales growth stemmed from specific segments. Lowe's reported a 0.2% increase in comparable sales for Q2 FY2026, largely attributed to strong performance in the Pro and Home Services segments ^[1][2]. Online sales also contributed significantly, demonstrating consistent momentum with a 15.5% increase in Q1 and a 15.7% rise in Q2, which helped to offset pressure from the DIY segment ^[1][2][3].

Overall customer transactions declined, particularly within the DIY sector. Lowe's comparable transactions fell 2.1% year over year in Q2 FY2026, with this decline primarily centered in the DIY sector ^[1][2]. A key limitation in assessing transaction recovery is the inherent measurement overlap in Lowe's omnichannel system, where online orders often involve in-store pickup, meaning online sales growth does not directly correspond to additional retail transactions ^[1][2][4][5]. Additionally, Pro growth tends to increase the average ticket size rather than the frequency of visits ^[1][2][4][5]. Lowe's did not disclose specific transaction counts for its Pro or online segments ^[1][2][3].

Lowe's anticipates flat comparable sales and ongoing transaction volume pressures. The company's outlook for FY2026 reflects these challenges, with guidance reduced to approximately flat comparable sales and an expectation of negative comparable sales in Q4 ^[1][3][6]. The observed decline in comparable transactions and persistent DIY pressures suggest that overall transaction volume is unlikely to return to high-volume recovery levels during FY2026 ^{[1][2][7][8][9][10]}.

Persistent DIY discretionary weakness, elevated mortgage rates, and soft housing and new-construction activity present bearish drivers ^[1]. Weather-sensitive outdoor and seasonal pressures, along with margin risk from transportation costs and acquisition integration, also weigh on performance ^[1]. Lowe’s cut its comparable-sales guidance from flat-to-up-2% to flat after Q2 FY2026, when comparable transactions declined 2.1% year over year ^[2][3][1]. Q1 FY2026 comparable transactions declined 0.9% ^[4].

Bullish catalysts include continued growth in Pro, Home Services, and online channels ^[2][3][4][5]. Recovery in repair-and-maintenance transactions, improved housing or broader consumer conditions, and successful Total Home execution could also drive upside ^[2][3][4][5]. Management expects second-half transactions to improve, especially in repair-and-maintenance categories, with additional potential from stronger macro conditions or increased discretionary big-ticket engagement ^[5][6]. Q2 FY2026 online sales increased 15.7% ^[3][7]. FY2026 guidance excludes potential second-half tariff refunds, which could also be a positive ^[2][3][4][5].

The fiscal-2026 Lowe’s customer-transactions prediction market will resolve based on the annual figure reported in the fiscal-year or Q4 earnings release, with an estimated resolution date of May 25, 2027 ^[8][9][10]. A market snapshot showed less than 1% probability for the 740M–750M thresholds ^[8][9][10]. This 740M threshold appears high given Q2 transactions fell 2.1% year over year and the annual market priced above 740M at under 1% ^{[8][9][10][3]}. Q3 FY2026 earnings and transaction disclosure were scheduled for November 18, 2026 ^[11]. The Q3 prediction market snapshot indicated roughly 77% probability above 182M transactions, 47% above 183M, and 33% above 184M ^[12].