ServiceTitan gross transaction volume in fiscal 2027
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect ServiceTitan's gross transaction volume in fiscal 2027 to be above $94 billion, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's price action is characterized by a single, abrupt repricing event. The contract opened at a 1.0% probability before spiking on August 13, 2026. By August 14, the price had reached 86.0%, where it has remained. The chart shows a near-vertical move from a low-probability assessment to a high-conviction one, with the current price of 86.0% sitting just below the contract's high of 87.0%.
The primary technical indicator for this market is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the price movements are not the result of buying and selling pressure and do not reflect a market consensus. The sharp repricing on August 13 is not explained by the provided context; available information from that period references insider selling, an event that would not typically drive a positive re-rating. Given the zero-volume environment, technical levels of support and resistance are not applicable. The 86.0% price implies a strong expectation that ServiceTitan's 2027 gross transaction volume will exceed $94 billion, a figure that is plausible given the reported Q1 2027 GTV of $21.7 billion and its 23% year-over-year growth. However, the price itself is not a reliable sentiment indicator due to the lack of any trading activity to validate it.
- Fiscal 2027 GTV appears most probable below $94 billion.
- U.S. home services leading indicators show softening momentum for 2027.
- Q1 2027 GTV reported $21.7 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $96 billion | 58.0% | 0.1% | Market higher by 57.9pp |
| Above $98 billion | 26.0% | 0.1% | Market higher by 25.9pp |
| Above $100 billion | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model and market aligned |
| Above $102 billion | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model and market aligned |
| Above $94 billion | 0.0% | 0.1% | Model higher by 0.1pp |
Current Context
For the full fiscal year 2027, ServiceTitan expects total revenue between $1.11 billion and $1.12 billion, with operating income projected at $128 million to $133 million [^] . Prediction markets, including Kalshi, feature active contracts on ServiceTitan's fiscal 2027 GTV performance [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 13, 2026: 83.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 84.0%
Outcome: Above $94 billion
What happened: The provided web research does not support an 83.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for ServiceTitan's fiscal 2027 gross transaction volume exceeding $94 billion on August 13, 2026 [^]. Instead, the significant market catalyst around that date was news of insider selling by President Vahe Kuzoyan, who sold over 131,000 shares on August 11 and 12, 2026 [^][^]. This insider selling generally suggests a negative outlook and would likely depress market confidence, rather than cause a bullish price surge [^]. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant for the alleged spike.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if ServiceTitan's gross transaction volume (GTV) in fiscal 2027 is above $98 billion. It resolves to NO if the GTV is $98 billion or less. Trading for this market ends on March 4, 4:00 PM EST, and the maximum payout date is June 2, 2027. No special settlement conditions are specified in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $96 billion | $0.60 | $0.47 | 58% |
| Above $98 billion | $0.28 | $0.79 | 26% |
| Above $100 billion | $0.16 | $0.91 | 0% |
| Above $102 billion | $0.06 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Above $94 billion | $0.92 | $0.16 | 0% |
Market Discussion
ServiceTitan reported Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) of $21.7 billion for its Q1 fiscal 2027, which was a 23% increase year-over-year [^][^]. While the company has provided full-year fiscal 2027 guidance for total revenue and non-GAAP income from operations, it has not offered a specific full-year GTV target [^][^]. However, prediction markets indicate significant trader sentiment and activity around ServiceTitan's full-year fiscal 2027 GTV exceeding $94 billion [^].
5. Trust Index
Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release
Integrity risk· Information exposure
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score49High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score69Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. How sensitive are ServiceTitan's fiscal 2027 GTV projections to key macroeconomic indicators like U.S. housing market trends and consumer spending on home services?
| GTV Projections Sensitivity | Sensitive to consumer demand, extreme weather, and residential end-market pressure [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Fiscal 2027 Revenue Guidance | $1.13–$1.14 billion [^] |
| External Influence on GTV | Heavily influenced by factors outside management's control, such as weather conditions [^][^] |
ServiceTitan’s fiscal 2027 GTV projections are highly sensitive to external factors. Its Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) projections for fiscal 2027 are significantly influenced by consumer demand for home services, which is impacted by macroeconomic factors such as extreme weather conditions and general pressure within the residential end-market [^][^]. Management has explicitly acknowledged that GTV and usage revenue are heavily influenced by external factors beyond their control, like weather, which affects demand for service trades such as HVAC [^][^].
Despite external influences, ServiceTitan projects robust fiscal 2027 revenue. ServiceTitan’s guidance for fiscal 2027 revenue is between $1.13 billion and $1.14 billion [^]. These GTV projections are underpinned by the resilient nature of essential trades, though GTV and usage growth are subject to seasonal volatility [^].
Recent GTV growth deceleration has heightened investor concerns. In recent quarters, ServiceTitan's GTV growth has experienced deceleration, leading to investor concerns [^]. This trend highlights the sensitivity of its usage and fintech-related revenue models to broader macroeconomic tightening and a potential softening in residential home services spending [^].
7. What is the consensus among financial analysts for ServiceTitan's full-year 2027 GTV, and how has this forecast evolved since its Q1 2027 earnings report?
| Q1 2027 GTV | $21.7 billion [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2027 GTV YoY Growth | 23% [^][^] |
| FY 2027 Revenue Guidance | $1.13 billion to $1.14 billion [^][^][^][^] |
Publicly accessible consensus forecasts for ServiceTitan's full-year 2027 Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) are currently unavailable. No reliable, publicly accessible FY2027 GTV consensus series or its evolution since the Q1 2027 earnings report could be verified within the last six months from the provided evidence [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The detailed GTV consensus and revision history appear to be available exclusively through paid, terminal-style estimates products, which were not retrieved in public material [^][^][^][^][^][^].
ServiceTitan does not provide official public guidance for full-year GTV. While the company does not offer formal GTV projections, financial analysts often utilize reported GTV and revenue trends to estimate its performance [^][^][^]. For example, some observers annualize ServiceTitan's reported Q1 2027 GTV of $21.7 billion to suggest an approximate annual run rate of $87 billion [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The Q1 2027 GTV represented a 23% year-over-year increase, partly influenced by temporary tailwinds [^][^].
Following strong Q1 2027 results, ServiceTitan raised its full-year revenue guidance. The company updated its full-year 2027 revenue outlook to a range of $1.13 billion to $1.14 billion, an increase from its previous target of $1.11 billion to $1.12 billion [^][^][^][^]. However, this revenue guidance does not establish a Street consensus for full-year 2027 GTV, nor does it indicate how such a consensus might have evolved since the Q1 2027 earnings report [^][^][^][^][^][^].
8. How does ServiceTitan's year-over-year GTV growth in H1 2027 compare to the performance of its key competitor, Jobber?
| ServiceTitan Q1 FY2027 GTV | $21.7 billion (Q1 FY2027, ended April 30, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| ServiceTitan Q1 FY2027 GTV Growth YoY | 23% [^][^][^] |
| Jobber H1 2027 GTV Growth | Not publicly reported [^][^][^] |
ServiceTitan achieved strong Gross Transaction Volume growth in fiscal Q1 2027. The company reported a Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) of $21.7 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, which concluded on April 30, 2026 [^][^][^]. This figure represents a 23% year-over-year increase in GTV for that specific period [^][^][^]. ServiceTitan's overall financial performance for fiscal year 2027, including its total annual gross transaction volume, is currently being tracked by prediction markets [^].
Direct GTV growth comparison with Jobber is not currently possible. A direct comparison of ServiceTitan's year-over-year GTV growth in H1 2027 against Jobber's performance cannot be made because Jobber, as a private company, does not publicly disclose its GTV growth figures for H1 2027 [^][^][^]. While ServiceTitan's Q1 2027 GTV growth is transparently available, Jobber instead publishes "Home Service Economic Reports" that detail platform-level trends, such as new work scheduled and median revenue, rather than its internal processed GTV [^][^][^].
9. What are the most reliable leading indicators for the U.S. home services industry, and what do their projections for the second half of 2027 suggest for ServiceTitan's addressable market?
| ServiceTitan Q1 2027 GTV | $21.7 billion [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| ServiceTitan FY27 GTV Projection | $90B-$96B range [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Probability FY27 GTV > $96B | 66% (as of August 2026) [^] |
U.S. home services indicators show softening momentum for 2027. Reliable leading indicators for the U.S. home services industry include the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA), which tracks home improvement spending, and industry sentiment surveys such as the U.S. Houzz Pro Industry Barometer and the US Remodeler Index, which capture contractor sentiment and project inquiry trends [^][^][^]. While the industry remains in an expansion phase, these leading indicators for the second half of 2026 and 2027 suggest softening momentum. This trend is characterized by decreased professional confidence, thinner backlogs, and weaker lead flow compared to Q1 2026 [^][^].
ServiceTitan anticipates continued healthy growth despite market softening. The company's addressable market is projected to experience robust expansion. ServiceTitan's gross transaction volume (GTV) reached $21.7 billion in Q1 2027 [^][^][^][^][^]. Current tracking and market expectations project ServiceTitan's total GTV for fiscal 2027 to likely fall within the $90 billion-$96 billion range, driven by anticipated growth in residential and commercial trades [^][^][^][^][^]. Furthermore, prediction markets as of August 2026 indicate a 66% probability that ServiceTitan's fiscal 2027 gross transaction volume will exceed $96 billion, and an 88% probability it will exceed $94 billion [^].
10. How does ServiceTitan's GTV-to-revenue 'take rate' in Q1 2027 compare to the monetization efficiency of other vertical SaaS platforms like Toast and Shopify?
| ServiceTitan Blended GTV-to-Revenue Take Rate (Q1 FY2027) | Approximately 1.13% to 1.17% (ended April 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Toast Blended Take Rate | Approximately 2%+ [^][^] |
| ServiceTitan Monetization Model | More subscription-heavy (compared to Toast's over 80% payment pass-throughs) [^][^] |
ServiceTitan's Q1 FY2027 take rate trails Toast's monetization efficiency. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, which concluded in April 2026, ServiceTitan reported a blended GTV-to-revenue take rate ranging from approximately 1.13% to 1.17% [^][^]. This monetization efficiency is lower when compared to Toast, which maintains an approximate blended take rate of 2% or more [^][^]. The available research does not provide specific data for Shopify's GTV-to-revenue take rate.
ServiceTitan prioritizes fintech growth, aligning with Toast and Shopify strategies. ServiceTitan's revenue model is notably more reliant on subscriptions than Toast's, which derives over 80% of its revenue from lower-margin payment pass-throughs [^][^]. Despite this difference, ServiceTitan is actively expanding its fintech offerings and usage-based monetization, adopting a 'vertical software plus fintech' approach successfully implemented by companies such as Toast and Shopify [^][^][^][^]. While these are key strategic priorities, the company faced a headwind in Q1 fiscal 2027 due to a shift in its GTV mix towards lower-margin commercial trades [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
ServiceTitan reported a Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) of $21.7 billion for fiscal first quarter 2027, representing 23% year-over-year growth [^] [^] . For full fiscal year 2027, ServiceTitan has provided guidance for total revenue in the range of $1.13 billion to $1.14 billion and operating income between $142 million and $147 million [^][^].
Bearish risks center on potential macroeconomic weakness impacting residential trade spending and high stock-based compensation affecting GAAP profitability [^] . Prediction markets on platforms like Kalshi are actively trading contracts on ServiceTitan's fiscal 2027 GTV performance, with significant volume indicating market interest in whether it will exceed $94 billion [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 02, 2027
- Closes: June 02, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: ServiceTitan reported a Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) of $21.7 billion for fiscal first quarter 2027, representing 23% year-over-year growth [^] [^] .
- Trigger: For full fiscal year 2027, ServiceTitan has provided guidance for total revenue in the range of $1.13 billion to $1.14 billion and operating income between $142 million and $147 million [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts for ServiceTitan include the successful adoption and scaling of its AI-powered "Max" platform (Agentic Operating System), strong net dollar retention greater than 110%, and rapid margin expansion [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Bearish risks center on potential macroeconomic weakness impacting residential trade spending and high stock-based compensation affecting GAAP profitability [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
