ServiceTitan gross transaction volume in Q3
Short Answer
ServiceTitan's gross transaction volume in Q3 2027 is expected to exceed $24.4 billion, despite headwinds from historical Q3 seasonal cooling, decelerated growth from Q1 to Q2, and a projected 1.5% negative impact from fewer business days, with the market pricing this outcome at 94%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market probability for ServiceTitan's Q3 2027 gross transaction volume to exceed $24.4 billion jumped 88 percentage points on September 9, 2026. This move appears disconnected from any fundamental catalyst. Analysis accompanying the price data suggests the spike is misaligned with available information, and no conventional driver has been identified.
Total volume in the market is just two contracts. The extreme price movement is therefore a function of thin liquidity and does not reflect significant trading activity or a change in broad market sentiment. The price has remained at its new, higher level on zero subsequent volume.
- Gross transaction volume is likely above $24.4 billion for Q3 2027.
- Seasonal cool-down and decelerating growth from Q1 to Q2 weigh on GTV.
- Fewer business days in Q3 2027 project a 1.5% negative GTV impact.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $24.4 billion | 94.0% | 88.0% | Seasonal cool-down, decelerating GTV growth, and fewer business days create downward pressure. |
| Above $24.7 billion | 0.0% | 0.0% | Seasonal cool-down, decelerating growth, and fewer business days moderately impact this threshold. |
| Above $24.9 billion | 0.0% | 0.0% | Downward pressures from seasonal moderation and decelerating growth challenge achieving this threshold. |
| Above $25.1 billion | 0.0% | 0.0% | Strong negative indicators, including seasonal moderation and fewer business days, make this less probable. |
| Above $25.3 billion | 0.0% | 0.0% | Q3 seasonal cool-down, decelerating growth, and fewer business days generally reduce GTV likelihood. |
Current Context
ServiceTitan has not yet reported Q3 fiscal 2027 gross transaction volume. The quarter ends October 31, 2026, and an official Q3 earnings date has not been published as of September 10, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The most recent reported quarter is fiscal Q2 2027, which ended July 31, 2026. For Q2, ServiceTitan (NASDAQ: TTAN) reported Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) of $26.8 billion, representing a 17% year-over-year increase [^][^][^]. GTV is defined as the sum of total dollars invoiced by its customers through the platform, serving as a proxy for the total revenue those customers generate [^].
Recent GTV growth decelerated amidst specific seasonal and operational factors. Fiscal Q2 2027 GTV growth of 17% was approximately 200 basis points below recent quarters, when adjusted for business days and weather [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Management attributed this to softer job growth among existing customers and moderated lead volume in May and June, particularly in HVAC, though lead volume stabilized in July [^][^][^]. This trend is incorporated into the fiscal year 2027 outlook [^][^][^][^][^][^]. In contrast, Q1 fiscal 2027 GTV was $21.7 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase, benefiting from an extra business day and early cooling season weather [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. For Q3 FY2027, management anticipates one fewer business day, posing a modest GTV headwind [^][^][^][^][^][^]. ServiceTitan has provided revenue guidance of $285 million to $287 million for Q3 fiscal 2027, but no specific GTV forecast [^][^][^]. This Q3 revenue guidance was below a consensus of approximately $287.9 million, leading to an approximate 16.7% pre-market share price drop on September 9 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Management anticipates usage revenue growth to outpace GTV in the fiscal year. This acceleration is expected to be driven by AI usage products and a shift in commercial mix [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Despite the deceleration in GTV growth, analyst sentiment remains largely positive, with roughly 88% of 17 covering analysts rating TTAN a buy and a median one-year target of $110 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets on platforms track ServiceTitan's Q3 2027 GTV performance, with active betting markets regarding thresholds such as $24.7 billion to $25.1 billion [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 September 09, 2026: 88.0pp spike
Price increased from 6.0% to 94.0%
Outcome: Above $24.4 billion
What happened: The "88.0 percentage point spike" in the prediction market for ServiceTitan's Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) "Above $24.4 billion" on September 9, 2026, appears to be fundamentally misaligned with available information, making it difficult to identify a conventional driver. The $24.4 billion figure is actually associated with Dell Technologies' AI server orders, not ServiceTitan's GTV, which typically ranges from $17-23 billion per quarter [^][^][^]. Furthermore, on September 9, 2026, ServiceTitan's stock declined nearly 30% following a negative Q2 earnings report and a light Q3 outlook, which would typically cause a decrease in such a prediction, not a spike [^][^][^][^]. Social media was irrelevant, as no activity supporting such a counter-intuitive spike was found.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if ServiceTitan's gross transaction volume (GTV) for Q3 is above $24.9 billion. It resolves to NO if the Q3 GTV is $24.9 billion or less. Trading for this market ends on December 3, 4:00 PM EST, with the maximum payout date being April 2, 2027. No special settlement conditions are mentioned.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $24.4 billion | $0.83 | $0.24 | 94% |
| Above $24.7 billion | $0.66 | $0.35 | 0% |
| Above $24.9 billion | $0.60 | $0.46 | 0% |
| Above $25.1 billion | $0.55 | $0.60 | 0% |
| Above $25.3 billion | $0.49 | $0.73 | 0% |
| Above $25.5 billion | $0.42 | $0.82 | 0% |
| Above $25.7 billion | $0.35 | $0.78 | 0% |
| Above $25.9 billion | $0.29 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Above $26.2 billion | $0.22 | $0.98 | 0% |
Market Discussion
ServiceTitan announced a Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) of $21.7 billion for its fiscal third quarter of 2026, which concluded October 31, 2025, representing a 22% year-over-year increase [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. More recently, as of September 8, 2026, the company announced a GTV of $26.8 billion for its fiscal second quarter of 2027, marking a 17% year-over-year increase [^][^].
5. Trust Index
Trust Score: 30 · High Risk
Trust score capped by a severe activity flag.
Scale: 0–30 Avoid · 30–50 High Risk · 50–70 Caution · 70–85 Good · 85–100 Strong
How it adds up
| Axis | Weight | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Integrity | 80% of score | 77 · Good |
| Trade quality | 20% of score | — |
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest.
Trust profile
| Dimension | Score | Assessment | Diagnosis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market integrity | 59 | Caution | Outcome is difficult for a market participant to influence. |
| Info fairness | 95 | Strong | Structural prior — no screens apply |
| Resolution quality | — | Resolution rules could not be assessed. | |
| Liquidity | — | ||
| Move quality | — | ||
| Rule clarity | — |
Integrity screens: 4 screens run · 6 don't apply
underwriting_v1.2 · computed 2026-09-10
6. What is the estimated quantitative impact of having one fewer business day in Q3 2027 compared to Q3 2026 on ServiceTitan's final GTV figure?
| Estimated GTV growth impact per business day | 150 basis points (1.5%) [^] |
|---|---|
| Quarter with fewer business days | Q3 2027 compared to Q3 2026 [^] |
| Management's use of business day adjustments | Relies on adjustments for GTV guidance and explanations [^][^] |
Q3 2027 is projected to have one fewer business day. ServiceTitan's management acknowledges that Q3 2027 will contain one less business day compared to the prior year period, Q3 2026 [^]. This difference is a known factor that management explicitly considers in its financial discussions.
A single business day impacts GTV growth by 1.5%. The company consistently estimates the impact of a single business day, whether an addition or a reduction, on Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) growth to be approximately 150 basis points, which translates to 1.5% [^]. This metric provides a quantifiable measure for the effect of calendar variations on business performance.
Management uses these adjustments in financial guidance. ServiceTitan's management frequently incorporates these business day adjustments when formulating and communicating GTV growth guidance, as well as when explaining fluctuations in GTV performance across different periods [^][^]. This practice highlights the significance of business day counts in their financial analysis and reporting.
7. What is the anticipated impact of ServiceTitan's increased focus on AI product adoption on its customers' invoicing volume and overall GTV in Q3 2027?
| AI impact on invoicing efficiency | Expected to improve by reducing "days to bill" [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Short-term revenue headwind | Approximately $4 million to $5 million for remainder of fiscal 2027 [^][^][^] |
| Q3 2027 GTV prediction | 94% probability of exceeding $24.4 billion (as of September 10, 2026) [^][^][^] |
ServiceTitan's enhanced AI focus aims to significantly improve invoicing efficiency. The company's Titan Intelligence suite, utilizing automated invoice summaries, capture, and error checking, is designed to reduce the "days to bill" and is considered by management a key driver for long-term financial health, rather than an immediate boost to Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) [^][^]. While AI tools such as 'Max' are expected to enhance long-term metrics like customer lifetime value, lead conversion, and average ticket sizes, their rapid adoption introduces a short-term revenue-recognition headwind. This amounts to approximately $4 million to $5 million for the remainder of fiscal year 2027, attributed to timing differences in billing and revenue recognition [^][^][^].
8. How does ServiceTitan's historical Q2-to-Q3 GTV seasonality compare to the growth deceleration observed between Q1 and Q2 of fiscal 2027?
| Q2 FY27 GTV | $26.8 billion [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 FY27 GTV Growth YoY | 17% [^][^][^] |
| Q3 FY27 GTV over $24.4B probability | 94% [^][^] |
Q2 fiscal 2027 GTV growth decelerated from typical strong Q2 performance. ServiceTitan's second quarter historically stands as its strongest period, marked by peak customer demand, with Q3 traditionally serving as a seasonal cool-down [^][^]. In Q2 of fiscal 2027, ServiceTitan reported Gross Transaction Value (GTV) of $26.8 billion [^]. Despite representing 17% year-over-year growth, this figure also signified a deceleration when compared to recent quarters [^][^][^].
Management attributed Q2 slowdown to moderate lead growth, adjusting forecasts. The deceleration in Q2 fiscal 2027 GTV growth was attributed by management to more moderate seasonal lead volume growth from existing customers during May and June [^][^][^]. Consequently, management explicitly adjusted its second-half forecast to reflect the moderate GTV growth observed in Q2, while also accounting for one fewer business day in Q3 [^][^][^][^].
Q1 GTV growth is unavailable, but Q3 GTV predictions are high. While a direct numerical comparison with Q1 fiscal 2027 GTV growth is not possible due to the specific rate being unavailable, prediction markets on Kalshi, as of September 10, 2026, show a 94% implied probability that ServiceTitan's Q3 2027 GTV will exceed $24.4 billion [^][^].
9. What high-frequency, third-party data sources are available to track U.S. home services job volume throughout Q3 2027?
| Data Source Availability | High-frequency, third-party data sources are available for tracking U.S. home services job volume [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Municipal Permit Aggregators | Shovels.ai and Apify permit scrapers [^][^][^] |
| Demand Scoring & Trade APIs | ServiceDemand.io tracks signals like weather and search queries; HomeQuotr offers trade-specific frequency and pricing [^][^] |
High-frequency, third-party data sources track U.S. home services job volume. These sources are available for tracking U.S. home services job volume throughout Q3 2027 [^][^][^][^]. They offer various methods to monitor activity in the home services sector, encompassing municipal building permit aggregators, real-time demand scoring platforms, and trade-specific frequency and pricing APIs [^][^][^][^].
Permit aggregators offer localized insights into project volumes. Municipal building permit aggregators, such as Shovels.ai and Apify permit scrapers, provide essential data on new construction and renovation projects [^][^][^]. These platforms gather permit information from various municipalities, offering valuable insights into localized job volumes.
Demand scoring platforms and APIs track real-time activity. Real-time demand scoring platforms, including ServiceDemand.io, track signals like weather, search queries, and permits to identify areas with surging service demand [^]. Additionally, trade-specific frequency and pricing APIs, such as HomeQuotr, function as high-frequency third-party data sources, offering granular data related to specific trades within the U.S. home services market [^][^].
10. Following ServiceTitan's Q2 2027 earnings call, what is the consensus among Wall Street analysts for Q3 2027 Gross Transaction Volume?
| Q3 2027 GTV Guidance | No explicit numeric guidance provided by ServiceTitan [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2027 GTV | $26.8 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase [^][^][^] |
| Q3 2027 GTV Prediction Market | 94% implied probability above $24.4 billion (as of September 10, 2026) [^][^][^] |
ServiceTitan offered no explicit Q3 2027 Gross Transaction Volume guidance. During its Q2 2027 earnings call on September 8, 2026, ServiceTitan did not provide specific numeric guidance for its Q3 2027 Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) [^][^][^]. The available information does not specify a consensus among Wall Street analysts for the company's Q3 2027 GTV. While no precise guidance for Q3 was given, ServiceTitan did adjust its forecast for the second half of fiscal year 2027 to reflect the more moderate GTV growth observed in Q2.
Q2 2027 Gross Transaction Volume saw a 17% year-over-year increase. For Q2 2027, ServiceTitan reported a Gross Transaction Volume of $26.8 billion [^][^][^]. This figure represented a 17% year-over-year increase. However, this growth was approximately 200 basis points below what was observed in recent quarters [^][^][^]. The company attributed this deceleration in GTV growth to lower job growth among its existing customer base [^][^][^].
Prediction markets offer an outlook on ServiceTitan's Q3 2027 GTV. Despite the absence of official company guidance, prediction markets provide an indication of potential Q3 2027 GTV. As of September 10, 2026, prediction markets on Kalshi show a 94% implied probability that ServiceTitan's Q3 2027 GTV will be above $24.4 billion [^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts and Risks
ServiceTitan's most recent reported Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) was $26.8 billion for the fiscal second quarter of 2027, which ended July 31, 2026 [^] [^] . This represented a 17% year-over-year increase [^][^][^][^][^]. The company's CFO noted that GTV growth moderated to 17%, approximately 200 basis points below recent quarters after adjusting for business days and weather, primarily due to lower job growth among existing customers [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Lead volume growth was softer than seasonal norms in May-June before stabilizing in July, and management has incorporated this slower trend into its outlook [^][^][^][^][^][^]. As of September 10, 2026, ServiceTitan has not yet reported financial results for the fiscal third quarter of 2027 (Q3 FY2027), which covers August 1, 2026, to October 31, 2026 [^]. Prediction markets are currently tracking Q3 2027 GTV, with sentiment indicating probabilities for thresholds around $24.7 billion to $25.1 billion [^]. Q3 FY2027 results, including the GTV figure, are expected around December 2026 [^][^][^][^][^].
Bullish catalysts include the adoption of ServiceTitan's AI-powered platform, Max, which saw its adoption more than double in Q2, with expectations of over 700 Max locations by fiscal year-end [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Durable platform revenue growth registered 22% year-over-year in Q2 2027 [^], with net dollar retention above 110% [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Operating margins improved to 15.2%, a 310 basis point increase, and management now views 25% incremental margins as a floor, guiding to 33% for FY2027 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The company achieved record free cash flow of $50.5 million, up 47% [^][^][^][^][^][^], and maintains a strong balance sheet with no debt [^][^][^][^][^]. Analyst sentiment is largely positive, with 88% buy ratings and a median target of $110 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Bearish risks include seasonal moderations in residential trade lead volumes and macroeconomic factors impacting residential home service spending [^] . The company's soft Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance of $285 million to $287 million, with the midpoint below consensus estimates of $287.874 million, led to a 16.7% stock drop to $67.99 in pre-market trading on September 9, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. CFO David Sherry sold 9,000 shares, approximately $817,500, under a Rule 10b5-1 plan on August 14, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 02, 2027
- Closes: April 02, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: ServiceTitan's most recent reported Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) was $26.8 billion for the fiscal second quarter of 2027, which ended July 31, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This represented a 17% year-over-year increase [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The company's CFO noted that GTV growth moderated to 17%, approximately 200 basis points below recent quarters after adjusting for business days and weather, primarily due to lower job growth among existing customers [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Lead volume growth was softer than seasonal norms in May-June before stabilizing in July, and management has incorporated this slower trend into its outlook [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 5 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 4 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTTAN-26SEPGTV-28500000000: NO (Sep 08, 2026)
- KXTTAN-26SEPGTV-28000000000: NO (Sep 08, 2026)
- KXTTAN-26SEPGTV-27500000000: NO (Sep 08, 2026)
- KXTTAN-26SEPGTV-27000000000: NO (Sep 08, 2026)
- KXTTAN-26SEPGTV-26500000000: YES (Sep 08, 2026)
