Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Workiva customers over $100k ACV in fiscal 2026 to be Above 2860 (20.0% model vs 0.0% market), driven by reported positive net additions and anticipated growth from an 'agentic-first' AI platform in the second half of the fiscal year.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market saw a single, decisive price movement. The probability started at 1.0% on August 12, 2026, before jumping to 96.0% the following day, where it has remained. This abrupt repricing directly corresponds to Workiva's second-quarter financial results announcement. The company reported having 2,690 customers with an annual contract value over $100,000 as of June 30, 2026. This figure serves as the resolving data point for the market, causing the probability to move immediately to reflect a near-certain outcome.
The price action occurred on zero traded volume. This indicates the sharp increase was not the result of active buying and selling but likely a market maker adjustment based on the public earnings release. The absence of volume suggests that once the official customer count was known, there was no longer any disagreement among participants to facilitate trades. The market is effectively priced for resolution based on this single piece of fundamental data.
Given the single, information-driven jump, traditional technical levels of support and resistance are not a factor. The key price points are simply the initial near-zero probability and the current near-certain probability of 96.0%. The chart indicates market sentiment shifted instantly from uncertainty to certainty upon the release of definitive information, with the current price reflecting the factual resolution of the market's question.
  • Customers above 2860 appear likely, following 2,690 in Q2 2026 and positive growth.
  • Workiva's 'agentic-first' AI platform is expected to drive higher ACV and customer growth.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 2860 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 2900 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 2940 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 2980 0.0% 15.0% Model higher by 15.0pp
Above 3020 0.0% 5.0% Model higher by 5.0pp

Current Context

Workiva reported 2,690 customers with over $100,000 ACV in Q2 2026. As of June 30, 2026, the company had 2,690 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 [1][2]. This figure represents a 20% increase from the 2,241 customers recorded on June 30, 2025 [1][2]. Workiva's total revenue for the second quarter, which ended June 30, 2026, was $255 million, a 19% year-over-year increase, and its non-GAAP operating margin was 16.8% [1][2].
Earlier in FY2026, Workiva reported 2,575 customers exceeding $100,000 ACV. For the first quarter, ended March 31, 2026, Workiva reported 2,575 customers with an ACV greater than $100,000, up 24.00% year-over-year from 2,079 customers as of March 31, 2025 [3][4][5][6][7][8]. At that time, Workiva also disclosed 605 customers with over $300,000 ACV and 265 customers with over $500,000 ACV [3][4][5][6][7][8]. The company's full-year 2026 guidance projects total revenue between $1.040 billion and $1.044 billion, with a non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 18% [2][9]. Workiva is pursuing an "agentic-first" platform strategy, which includes deploying AI agents for tasks like disclosure drafting and financial tie-out to drive upsell and higher ACV [10][11]. Workiva is scheduled to host an Investor Day in September 2026 [9].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3WK_Q12026, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  4. 4seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  5. 5www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  6. 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  7. 7www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  8. 8www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  9. 9Workiva (WK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  10. 10Workiva Reports $13M Q2 Profit After Year-Earlier Lossstocktitan.net
  11. 11WK Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Expansion and AI Strategy Drive Platform Adoption - StockStorystockstory.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 13, 2026: 34.0pp spike

Price increased from 40.0% to 74.0%

Outcome: Above 2940

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market spike was the sustained positive sentiment following Workiva's Q2 2026 financial results, which were announced on August 4, 2026 [1]. The report disclosed 2,690 customers with ACV over $100k as of June 30, 2026, representing a 20% year-over-year growth, alongside a shift to net profitability and increased full-year operating margin guidance [1]. This robust performance and optimistic outlook for continued growth likely prompted market participants to revise their expectations upwards for Workiva's fiscal 2026 customer count, leading to the 34.0 percentage point increase in the "Above 2940" outcome on August 13, 2026, after a period of digestion of the news. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver; it appears mostly irrelevant given the available information.

📈 August 12, 2026: 72.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 73.0%

Outcome: Above 2940

What happened: The 72.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on August 12, 2026, was not driven by social media activity or relevant traditional news. Workiva announced its Q2 2026 financial results in early August, reporting 2,690 customers with over $100k ACV as of June 30, 2026, which is below the "Above 2940" outcome [1]. Crucially, the target figure "2940" is the ticker symbol for an unrelated company, Sun Own Industrial Co., Ltd., and bears no connection to Workiva's financial key performance indicators [2][3][4][5][6]. Social media activity was irrelevant to this price spike, which likely resulted from a fundamental misunderstanding or mispricing of the market's terms.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  2. 22940 Stock Price and Chart — TPEX:2940 — TradingViewtradingview.com
  3. 3SUNOWN (2940.TWO) stock historical prices and data – Yahoo Financenz.finance.yahoo.com
  4. 4Sun Own Industrial (TPEX:2940) Statistics & Valuation Metricsstockanalysis.com
  5. 5歐都納(2940.TWO) 走勢圖 - Yahoo股市tw.stock.yahoo.com
  6. 6歐都納 2940 - 總覽 | 鉅亨網 - 台股cnyes.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves based on the number of Workiva customers with over $100k Annual Contract Value (ACV) in fiscal 2026. For a contract like "Above 2980," a "YES" resolution occurs if this number is greater than 2980, and a "NO" resolution occurs if it is 2980 or less. Trading for this market concludes on February 26, 4:00 PM EST, with the maximum payout scheduled for May 27, 2027; some contracts may also include a 3.25% interest condition.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 2860 $0.99 $0.06 0%
Above 2900 $0.99 $0.08 0%
Above 2940 $0.82 $0.27 0%
Above 2980 $0.45 $0.64 0%
Above 3020 $0.16 $0.93 0%

Market Discussion

Workiva announced 2,690 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) over $100,000 as of June 30, 2026, marking a 20% increase year-over-year [1][2]. This builds on the 2,575 customers with ACV over $100,000 reported as of March 31, 2026 [1][2][3]. Public discussion in August 2026 focused on Workiva's move to profitability and the potential impact of its new AI product suites, while some analysts expressed caution regarding its high valuation [4][5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  2. 2Workiva (WK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  4. 4Workiva (WK) Stock Shrugs Off Profit Breakthrough As Valuation Debate Deepens - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  5. 5Why Workiva (WK) Is Up 8.9% After Strong Q2, Higher Guidance, and New AI Suite - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st

5. How might the adoption of Workiva's new 'agentic-first' AI platform impact the net addition of large-contract customers in the second half of fiscal 2026?

AI Platform Launch DatesSeptember 2025 and July 2026 [1][2]
Customers with ACV > $100k (Q2 2026)2,690 [3][4][5]
YoY Growth for ACV > $100k Customers20% [3][4][5]
Workiva's new AI platform targets enterprise clients for growth. The company's 'agentic-first' AI platform, featuring capabilities launched in September 2025 and July 2026, is anticipated to generate upsell opportunities and higher average contract values in the second half of fiscal 2026 [1][2][4][5]. This strategic approach aims to attract enterprise clients who prioritize platform efficiency and compliance-ready solutions for their complex workflows [4][5]. The AI platform's development began with the 'Intelligent Finance, GRC, and Sustainability' launch in September 2025, which integrated agentic AI [1]. This was followed by the 'Specialized AI Agents and Workiva Knowledge' launch in July 2026, designed to enhance high-stakes reporting [2].
Current growth in large contracts sets a strong foundation. Workiva's Q2 2026 report indicated 2,690 customers with an Average Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100,000, representing a 20% year-over-year increase [3][4][5]. Larger customer cohorts, specifically those with ACV greater than $300,000 and $500,000, exhibited even more robust growth, highlighting the success of Workiva's multi-solution 'land and expand' strategies [3][4][5]. Management expects these new 'agentic-first' AI tools, which automate complex processes while maintaining auditable governance, to further drive platform adoption and increase contract values [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Workiva Unveils Intelligent Finance, GRC, and Sustainability to Accelerate AI Transformation for the Office of the CFO | Newsroomnewsroom.workiva.com
  2. 2Workiva Launches Specialized AI Agents and Intelligence Layer to Advance High-Stakes Reporting | Newsroomnewsroom.workiva.com
  3. 3Workiva (WK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Workiva’s AI Bet Pays Off, Forging a New Path to SaaS Profitability - BriefGlance.combriefglance.com
  5. 5WK Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Expansion and AI Strategy Drive Platform Adoptionbusiness.theantlersamerican.com

6. What does Workiva's historical quarterly net customer growth in the over-$100k ACV segment suggest for the final two quarters of fiscal 2026?

Customers with ACV > $100k (Q2 2026)2,690 [1]
Net customer growth (Q2 2026)115 [1]
Quarterly net additions range (FY2024 Q1 - FY2026 Q1)+24 to +162 customers [2][3][4][5][6][7]
Workiva continued positive net customer growth into Q2 2026. The company concluded Q2 2026 with 2,690 customers having an Annual Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100k, reflecting a net increase of 115 customers from Q1 2026 [1]. This trend suggests that Workiva is likely to continue adding customers in this high-value segment for the remainder of fiscal 2026, albeit at a potentially moderating pace.
Workiva's over-$100k ACV segment experienced consistent, moderating growth. Historical quarterly net additions for this segment show consistent growth from FY2024 Q1 through FY2026 Q1, with fluctuations between +24 and +162 customers [2][3][4][5][6][7]. Recent data, including +68 in FY2026 Q1, +135 in FY2025 Q4, and +131 in FY2025 Q3, indicates robust but moderating growth. The decline from +162 in FY2025 Q2 to +68 in FY2026 Q1 suggests a normalization rather than an acceleration of growth in this segment [2][3][4][5][6][7]. Consequently, Workiva is projected to maintain positive net customer growth in FY2026 Q3 and Q4, likely seeing mid-double-digit to low-triple-digit quarterly additions, consistent with the recent run-rate of +68 to +135 per quarter [2][3][4][5][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  2. 2newsroom.workiva.comOctagon Agent
  3. 3WORKIVA INC (10-K) - 2025-FY, Page: 54Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  4. 4seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  5. 5www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  6. 6www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  7. 7www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net

7. How does Workiva's recent growth in enterprise customers compare to key SaaS competitors like BlackLine or Anaplan in fiscal 2026?

Workiva customers >$100K ACV (June 30, 2026)2,690 [1][2]
Workiva customer growth >$100K ACV (Q2 2025-Q2 2026)20% [1][2]
BlackLine total customers (June 30, 2026)4,260 [3]
Workiva demonstrated robust growth in its enterprise customer base for fiscal 2026. The company reported a 20% increase in customers with an annual contract value (ACV) over $100,000, reaching 2,690 as of June 30, 2026, up from 2,241 in the second quarter of 2025 [1][2]. Significant growth was also observed in larger contract sizes, with customers exceeding $300,000 ACV growing 34% to 656, and those over $500,000 ACV growing 33% to 276 year-over-year [4][1]. Furthermore, Workiva's 19% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2026 surpassed BlackLine's growth for the same period [5].
BlackLine utilizes different metrics for reporting customer and revenue growth. The company does not publicly disclose figures for customers with over $100,000 ACV [3], but it reported a total of 4,260 customers as of June 30, 2026 [3]. BlackLine's strategy highlights growth in larger annual recurring revenue (ARR) cohorts, with customers exceeding $1 million in ARR increasing by 9% year-over-year to 86 in Q1 2026, and customers over $250,000 in ARR rising 14% year-over-year [6]. BlackLine's focus also includes total ARR, platform pricing adoption, and net revenue retention, which stood at 102% in Q2 2026 [3][7][8]. For the second quarter of 2026, BlackLine reported 10% revenue growth [5].
Information regarding Anaplan's enterprise customer growth for fiscal 2026 was not available in the provided research.
Sources (8)
  1. 1Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | FinancialContentfinancialcontent.com
  2. 2Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  3. 3BlackLine Announces Second Quarter Financial Resultsglobenewswire.com
  4. 4Workiva (WK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5Workiva’s AI Bet Pays Off, Forging a New Path to SaaS Profitability - BriefGlance.combriefglance.com
  6. 6BlackLine (BL) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  7. 7BlackLine posts Q2 2026 results and 2026 outlook | BL 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  8. 8BlackLine Announces First Quarter Financial Resultsinvestors.blackline.com

8. What specific guidance or strategic updates from Workiva's September 2026 Investor Day could alter forecasts for its year-end customer KPIs?

2026 Investor Day StatusScheduled for September 2026; not yet occurred as of August 13, 2026 [1][2]
Customers with ACV > $100K (Q2 2026)2,690 (August 4, 2026) [3]
YoY increase in customers with ACV > $100K20% (August 4, 2026) [3]
Workiva has not yet released year-end 2026 customer KPI forecasts. As of August 13, 2026, specific forward-looking guidance or strategic updates concerning Workiva’s year-end 2026 customer key performance indicators (KPIs) have not been provided [1][2]. This information is anticipated to be disclosed during Workiva's 2026 Investor Day, which is scheduled to occur in September 2026, coinciding with the company's customer conference in Las Vegas [1][2].
Recent performance indicates strong growth in Workiva's high-value customer segment. According to Workiva's Q2 2026 earnings report, issued on August 4, 2026, the company reported having 2,690 customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 [3]. This figure represents a notable 20% year-over-year increase within this particular customer segment [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Workiva Inc. R (0WKA.F) Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Workiva (WK) Transcript: 2026 Baird Global Consumer, Technology & Services Conferencestockanalysis.com
  3. 3Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com

9. What are the current Wall Street analyst consensus estimates for Workiva's year-end 2026 count of customers with over $100k ACV?

Workiva customers >$100k ACV (March 31, 2026)2,575 [1][2]
Workiva customers >$100k ACV (June 30, 2026)2,690 [3][4]
Wall Street analyst consensus for year-end 2026Not available from research [5][6]
No specific Wall Street analyst consensus exists for Workiva's year-end 2026 customer count. There are currently no explicit Wall Street analyst consensus estimates available for Workiva's year-end 2026 count of customers with an annual contract value (ACV) exceeding $100,000. However, prediction markets on platforms such as Kalshi and Coinbase are hosting event contracts pertaining to "Workiva customers over $100k ACV in fiscal 2026." The prices on these platforms reflect a market consensus rather than formal analyst reports [5][6].
Workiva has reported actual customer counts for earlier periods in 2026. The company disclosed that as of March 31, 2026, it had 2,575 customers with an ACV greater than $100,000 [1][2]. This figure subsequently increased to 2,690 customers with an ACV over $100,000 by June 30, 2026 [3][4]. These numbers represent Workiva's reported performance for specific quarters, distinct from a year-end 2026 Wall Street analyst consensus estimate.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Workiva Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  2. 2Workiva: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending March 31, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  3. 3Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  4. 4Workiva: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending June 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  5. 5Workiva customers over $100k ACV in fiscal 2026kalshi.com
  6. 6Workiva customers over $100k ACV in fiscal 2026coinbase.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts and Risks

Workiva projects full-year 2026 total revenue between $1.040 billion and $1.044 billion, with a non-GAAP operating margin target raised to approximately 18% [1]. As of June 30, 2026, the company reported 2,690 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) of more than $100,000 [2]. This customer base increased from 2,575 customers as of March 31, 2026 [3][4][5][6][7][8], and 2,507 customers as of December 31, 2025 [3][4][5][6][7][8]. The growth in $100k+ ACV customers suggests continued expansion in Workiva’s enterprise customer base, supporting its recurring-revenue model [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Further bullish catalysts include the adoption of new AI-powered agents and the Workiva Knowledge layer, alongside continued expansion into multi-solution high-value enterprise contracts [9][10].
Conversely, potential bearish risks include macroeconomic headwinds causing enterprise spending delays, increased regulatory scrutiny lengthening deal cycles, and competition from large platform incumbents [9][11]. Although the customer count with ACV over $100,000 shows an increase, the available data provides only one FY2026 datapoint in the last six months, which does not establish a full-year trend, retention rate, or indicate whether growth is accelerating or slowing [3][4][5][6][7][8].
A primary near-term catalyst for validating Workiva's full-year trajectory will be the Q3 2026 earnings report, expected in early November 2026 [11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 27, 2027
  • Closes: May 27, 2027
Sources (11)
  1. 1Workiva (WK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  3. 3seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  4. 4www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  5. 5www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  6. 6www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  7. 7www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  8. 8www.gurufocus.comOctagon Agentgurufocus.com
  9. 9WK Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Expansion and AI Strategy Drive Platform Adoption - StockStorystockstory.org
  10. 10Why Workiva (WK) Is Up 8.9% After Strong Q2, Higher Guidance, and New AI Suite - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  11. 11Workiva Targets $1.04B 2026 Revenue on Strong Tech Demand | Fazen Marketsfazen.markets