Workiva customers over $100k ACV in fiscal 2026

Kalshi Expiration: May 27, 2027 Updated: August 13, 2026 Financials KPIs

By Melvin Tercan, Octagon Research Editor

Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Workiva customers over $100k ACV in fiscal 2026 to be Above 2860 (20.0% model vs 0.0% market), driven by reported positive net additions and anticipated growth from an 'agentic-first' AI platform in the second half of the fiscal year.

1. Executive Verdict

Customers above 2860 appear likely, following 2,690 in Q2 2026 and positive growth.
Workiva's 'agentic-first' AI platform is expected to drive higher ACV and customer growth.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
Above 2860	0.0%	20.0%	Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 2900	0.0%	20.0%	Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 2940	0.0%	20.0%	Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 2980	0.0%	15.0%	Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 3020	0.0%	5.0%	Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.

Current Context

Workiva reported 2,690 customers with over $100,000 ACV in Q2 2026. As of June 30, 2026, the company had 2,690 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 ^{[^]}^{[^]}. This figure represents a 20% increase from the 2,241 customers recorded on June 30, 2025 ^{[^]}^{[^]}. Workiva's total revenue for the second quarter, which ended June 30, 2026, was $255 million, a 19% year-over-year increase, and its non-GAAP operating margin was 16.8% ^{[^]}^{[^]}.

Earlier in FY2026, Workiva reported 2,575 customers exceeding $100,000 ACV. For the first quarter, ended March 31, 2026, Workiva reported 2,575 customers with an ACV greater than $100,000, up 24.00% year-over-year from 2,079 customers as of March 31, 2025 ^{[^]}^{[^]}^{[^]}^{[^]}^{[^]}^{[^]}. At that time, Workiva also disclosed 605 customers with over $300,000 ACV and 265 customers with over $500,000 ACV ^{[^]}^{[^]}^{[^]}^{[^]}^{[^]}^{[^]}. The company's full-year 2026 guidance projects total revenue between $1.040 billion and $1.044 billion, with a non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 18% ^{[^]}^{[^]}. Workiva is pursuing an "agentic-first" platform strategy, which includes deploying AI agents for tasks like disclosure drafting and financial tie-out to drive upsell and higher ACV ^{[^]}^{[^]}. Workiva is scheduled to host an Investor Day in September 2026 ^{[^]}.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

This market saw a single, decisive price movement. The probability started at 1.0% on August 12, 2026, before jumping to 96.0% the following day, where it has remained. This abrupt repricing directly corresponds to Workiva's second-quarter financial results announcement. The company reported having 2,690 customers with an annual contract value over $100,000 as of June 30, 2026. This figure serves as the resolving data point for the market, causing the probability to move immediately to reflect a near-certain outcome.

The price action occurred on zero traded volume. This indicates the sharp increase was not the result of active buying and selling but likely a market maker adjustment based on the public earnings release. The absence of volume suggests that once the official customer count was known, there was no longer any disagreement among participants to facilitate trades. The market is effectively priced for resolution based on this single piece of fundamental data.

Given the single, information-driven jump, traditional technical levels of support and resistance are not a factor. The key price points are simply the initial near-zero probability and the current near-certain probability of 96.0%. The chart indicates market sentiment shifted instantly from uncertainty to certainty upon the release of definitive information, with the current price reflecting the factual resolution of the market's question.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 13, 2026: 34.0pp spike

Price increased from 40.0% to 74.0%

Outcome: Above 2940

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market spike was the sustained positive sentiment following Workiva's Q2 2026 financial results, which were announced on August 4, 2026 ^{[^]}. The report disclosed 2,690 customers with ACV over $100k as of June 30, 2026, representing a 20% year-over-year growth, alongside a shift to net profitability and increased full-year operating margin guidance ^{[^]}. This robust performance and optimistic outlook for continued growth likely prompted market participants to revise their expectations upwards for Workiva's fiscal 2026 customer count, leading to the 34.0 percentage point increase in the "Above 2940" outcome on August 13, 2026, after a period of digestion of the news. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver; it appears mostly irrelevant given the available information.

📈 August 12, 2026: 72.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 73.0%

Outcome: Above 2940

What happened: The 72.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on August 12, 2026, was not driven by social media activity or relevant traditional news. Workiva announced its Q2 2026 financial results in early August, reporting 2,690 customers with over $100k ACV as of June 30, 2026, which is below the "Above 2940" outcome ^{[^]}. Crucially, the target figure "2940" is the ticker symbol for an unrelated company, Sun Own Industrial Co., Ltd., and bears no connection to Workiva's financial key performance indicators ^{[^]}^{[^]}^{[^]}^{[^]}^{[^]}. Social media activity was irrelevant to this price spike, which likely resulted from a fundamental misunderstanding or mispricing of the market's terms.

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves based on the number of Workiva customers with over $100k Annual Contract Value (ACV) in fiscal 2026. For a contract like "Above 2980," a "YES" resolution occurs if this number is greater than 2980, and a "NO" resolution occurs if it is 2980 or less. Trading for this market concludes on February 26, 4:00 PM EST, with the maximum payout scheduled for May 27, 2027; some contracts may also include a 3.25% interest condition.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
Above 2860	$0.97	$0.04	0%
Above 2900	$0.96	$0.05	0%
Above 2940	$0.80	$0.26	0%
Above 2980	$0.44	$0.64	0%
Above 3020	$0.14	$0.93	0%

Market Discussion

Workiva announced 2,690 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) over $100,000 as of June 30, 2026, marking a 20% increase year-over-year ^{[^]}^{[^]}. This builds on the 2,575 customers with ACV over $100,000 reported as of March 31, 2026 ^{[^]}^{[^]}^{[^]}. Public discussion in August 2026 focused on Workiva's move to profitability and the potential impact of its new AI product suites, while some analysts expressed caution regarding its high valuation ^{[^]}^{[^]}.

5. Trader Dashboard

A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.

Above 2860PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—