Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Above 1850 Figma paid customers with over $100k ARR in fiscal 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market repriced violently upward in a single session and has since stabilized. The contract opened at a 1.0% probability before jumping 74 percentage points to 75.0% on July 29, 2026. The price has subsequently drifted higher to its current 76.0% level. The provided context indicates this price spike was likely driven by strong investor sentiment and analyst commentary on Figma's enterprise growth prospects, which appears to have affected related markets simultaneously. This move followed earlier financial reports from Figma, which disclosed 1,525 paid customers with over $100k in annual recurring revenue as of March 31, 2026, a 48% year-over-year increase.
Market depth appears to be extremely thin. Total volume traded is low at only 85 contracts, and sample data shows zero volume transacted during the initial 74-point price surge. This suggests the price was set by an initial repricing on very low liquidity rather than a consensus formed through active trading. The 75.0% level now acts as the primary support, with the price failing to break below it since the initial gap up.
The current 76.0% probability implies high market confidence that Figma will achieve the contract's resolution target. Based on the March 31 figures, the market is pricing a high likelihood that Figma will add the necessary number of high-value customers by the end of its fiscal year. However, the lack of significant trading volume means this high probability has not been rigorously tested by broad market participation. The sentiment is decisively positive, but conviction, as measured by volume, is weak.
  • Above 1850 likely given 48% YoY growth for >$100k ARR customers (Q1 2026).
  • Surpassing 1950 is possible with H2 2026 AI product integrations and hybrid monetization.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 2000 40.0% 42.0% Model higher by 2.0pp
Above 1950 54.0% 48.5% Market higher by 5.5pp
Above 1850 74.0% 72.5% Market higher by 1.5pp
Above 1900 67.0% 55.2% Market higher by 11.8pp
Above 2050 45.0% 35.5% Market higher by 9.5pp

Current Context

Figma reported significant growth in its high-value customer base and subscription revenue. As of March 31, 2026, the company had 1,525 paid customers with over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR), reflecting a 48% year-over-year increase [1][2][3]. This figure is up from 1,405 such customers reported on December 31, 2025 [4]. Figma’s Q1 2026 subscription revenue reached $333.4 million, a 46% year-over-year increase [5][6]. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.422–$1.428 billion [5][6].
Market sentiment weighs high growth against profitability and AI tool uncertainty. While Q1 2026 saw robust revenue expansion, Figma recorded a negative net-income margin of -43% for the quarter [3][5]. Market participants also consider the potential long-term effects of generative AI-based design tools [3][5]. Figma is scheduled to announce its Q2 2026 financial results on August 5, 2026 [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
  2. 2Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
  3. 3Figma (FIG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Figma Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  5. 5Figma Posts 46% YoY Revenue Rise | SaaS Newssaasrise.com
  6. 6Figma Q1 2026 revenue jumps 46% to $333M | FIG 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  7. 7Figma to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial...investor.figma.com
  8. 8Investor Relations | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 July 30, 2026: 53.0pp drop

Price decreased from 87.0% to 34.0%

Outcome: Above 2000

What happened: The primary driver of the 53.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price was likely the significant investor concern regarding competition from generative AI tools, which caused Figma stock to decline over 50% in the first half of 2026 [1][2]. News reports, such as one on July 10, 2026, specifically attributed this sharp stock decline to fears of competition from tools like Anthropic's Claude Design, directly preceding the prediction market's drop [1][2]. This broad negative sentiment about Figma's future growth prospects, particularly in its high-value customer segments, likely led participants to significantly lower their probability for the company to achieve "Above 2000" customers with over $100k ARR by fiscal 2026, following its Q1 2026 report of 1,525 such customers as of March 31, 2026 [3][4][5][1]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver or significant accelerant based on the provided research.

📈 July 29, 2026: 86.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 87.0%

Outcome: Above 2000

What happened: The 86.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price for Figma paid customers >$100k ARR "Above 2000" on July 29, 2026, appears primarily driven by strong investor optimism and analyst commentary surrounding Figma's enterprise growth potential [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. Figma shares rallied significantly in the week leading up to this date, fueled by positive sentiment from its Q1 2026 earnings and anticipation of Q2 results, along with Bank of America's "Buy" rating emphasizing AI's role in strengthening Figma's enterprise workflow position [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. This broad positive momentum and the influence of analyst upgrades likely increased confidence in the company's ability to exceed the specified customer threshold [7][8]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, as no specific posts or viral narratives related to this KPI were found.
Sources (12)
  1. 1Why Figma Stock Lost 52% in the First Half of 2026 | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Figma Stock Drops 44% in 2026 on Fears of AI Design Competition | TIKR.comtikr.com
  3. 3Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
  4. 4Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
  5. 5Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.wedbush.com
  6. 6Figma Stock Is Up 22% This Week: Here’s What’s Fueling the Rally | TIKR.comtikr.com
  7. 7www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  8. 8www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  9. 9www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  10. 10www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  11. 11www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  12. 12www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market concerns the number of Figma paid customers with over $100k Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in fiscal 2026.

A YES resolution for a specific contract is triggered if the number of Figma paid customers with >$100k ARR in fiscal 2026 is above the threshold specified in that contract (e.g., above 1950). Conversely, a NO resolution is triggered if this number is not above the specified threshold. Trading for this market ends on February 25, 4:00 PM EST, and the maximum payout date is May 26, 2027. No special settlement conditions are explicitly stated.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 1850 $0.83 $0.25 74%
Above 1900 $0.68 $0.41 67%
Above 1950 $0.55 $0.54 54%
Above 2050 $0.24 $0.85 45%
Above 2000 $0.38 $0.71 40%

Market Discussion

Figma announced 1,525 paid customers with over $100,000 in ARR as of March 31, 2026, representing a 48% year-over-year growth from 1,031 customers in Q1 2025 [1][2][3][4]. Market commentary and analyst discussions frequently highlight the expansion of this enterprise customer segment as a key bull signal for Figma, pointing to deeper engagement, including AI credit consumption and seat expansion, and supporting buy ratings despite broader market concerns [5][6][7][8].

Sources (8)
  1. 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
  2. 2Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
  3. 3Figma revenue jumps 46% but swings to quarterly loss | FIG Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  4. 4Financials - Quarterly Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  5. 5Prepared Remarks: Figma Q1 2026 Earningss206.q4cdn.com
  6. 6Figma Grows 46% and Trades at 6x. Everyone Else Growing 30%+ Trades at 15-36x. | SaaStrAIsaastr.com
  7. 7Figma stock jumps 6% as BofA backs AI outlookinvezz.com
  8. 8Figma (FIG) Down 80% From Peak — 46% Revenue Growth, $30 Targettradingkey.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 52 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score68Caution
Trade quality20% of score5Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score52Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity95
Structural prior — no screens applyStrong
Info fairness40
High Risk
Trade quality5
Order book is critically thinAvoid
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Trade quality
5Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 5.0c slippage (~6% of a 79c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Above 1850–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 1950–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 2000–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 3d

No trades in the last 3d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 2, 2026

6. What quarterly net additions of >$100k ARR customers are required in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of FY2026 for Figma to surpass the 1,950-customer mark?

Target customer mark for FY20261,950 [1][2][3]
Customers at end of Q1 20261,525 [1][2][3]
Additional customers required425 [1][2][3]
Figma targets 1,950 high-value customers by fiscal year-end 2026. To achieve this objective, Figma needs to add a total of 425 net customers each generating more than $100,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). As of March 31, 2026, which marked the close of its fiscal Q1 2026, the company reported 1,525 paid customers meeting this financial criterion [1][2][3].
An additional 425 customers are needed across three quarters. These remaining net customers must be acquired during the second, third, and fourth quarters of the fiscal year 2026. While the total number of new customers required to meet the target is clear, the available information does not specify the precise net additions needed for each individual quarter [1][2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
  2. 2Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
  3. 3Figma revenue jumps 46% but swings to quarterly loss | FIG Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net

7. What are the latest consensus analyst estimates for Figma's total >$100k ARR customer count at the end of fiscal year 2026?

FY2026 End >$100k ARR Customer EstimatesNot available [1][2][3]
Q1 FY2026 >$100k ARR Customers1,525 (as of March 31, 2026) [1][2][3]
FY2025 End >$100k ARR Customers1,405 (as of December 31, 2025) [4][5][6]
Official consensus analyst estimates for Figma's total customer count with over $100,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) by the end of fiscal year 2026 are not available. Figma does not provide official consensus analyst estimates or internal projections specifically for this >$100k ARR customer count for fiscal year 2026. Although Figma offers specific guidance for quarterly revenue, operating income, and full-year revenue, the company does not provide official forecasts for the >$100k ARR customer count for the full fiscal year 2026 [1][2][3].
Recent customer count data and market sentiment offer some insight. As of March 31, 2026, which marked the end of Q1 fiscal year 2026, Figma reported 1,525 paid customers with more than $100,000 in ARR. Figma concluded fiscal year 2025 on December 31, 2025, with 1,405 paid customers meeting the >$100k ARR threshold [1][2][3][4][5][6]. While prediction markets show activity regarding Figma's >$100k ARR customer counts for specific quarters, such as Q2 2026, with traders forecasting numbers above 1,550-1,675 for those periods, these figures represent market sentiment rather than official company or consensus analyst forecasts for the entire fiscal year [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
  2. 2Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
  3. 3Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.wedbush.com
  4. 4Financials - Quarterly Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  5. 5Figma Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025...investor.figma.com
  6. 6About Us | Oil & Gas Journal - Figma Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  7. 7Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q2 — Financials odds compared | OddsBridge — OddsBridgeoddsbridge.app
  8. 8Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q2 — Kalshi Quoten & Einblicke | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

8. How does Figma's enterprise customer acquisition strategy compare to that of Adobe's Creative Cloud for Enterprise in the current fiscal year?

Figma Paid Customers >$100k ARR1,525 (as of March 31, 2026) [1][2]
Figma YoY Growth for >$100k ARR Customers48% [1][2]
Adobe Q2 2026 Freemium MAU Surge70% [3]
Figma's enterprise strategy leverages product-led growth with sales expansion. Figma's enterprise customer acquisition strategy in fiscal 2026 is anchored in a sales-led expansion model that builds upon its well-established product-led growth (PLG) and community-driven virality [4][5][6]. This approach prioritizes frictionless adoption and targets existing power users through strategic outbound efforts. This strategy has led to significant growth, with Figma reporting 1,525 paid customers generating over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) as of March 31, 2026, marking a 48% year-over-year increase [1][2].
Adobe pivots to an AI-driven freemium model for enterprise acquisition. In contrast, Adobe's Creative Cloud for Enterprise strategy for fiscal 2026 reflects a strategic pivot towards an AI-driven, freemium onboarding model, moving away from its traditional direct-to-paid approach [7][3]. The primary objective is to maximize Monthly Active Users (MAU) and cultivate long-term engagement by integrating its extensive portfolio, encompassing Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud. This strategy incorporates agentic AI and credit-based monetization to broaden its total addressable market and foster upsell opportunities within large enterprises. This strategic shift is evidenced by a 70% surge in Adobe's freemium MAU during Q2 2026 [7][3].
Both companies pursue engagement and enterprise expansion via distinct approaches. Both Figma and Adobe are intensely focused on driving engagement and expanding their enterprise customer base, but they achieve these goals through distinct strategic frameworks. Figma capitalizes on its foundational product-led growth with a targeted sales-led overlay, while Adobe strategically employs an AI-driven freemium model to broaden its user base and encourage long-term commitment [7][3][4][5][6].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  3. 3Adobe (ADBE) Q2 2026: Freemium MAU Surges 70%, Signaling Strategic Pivot to AI-Driven User Acquisition | EarningsIQearningsiq.co
  4. 420Sales: Inside Figma's $1BN ARR Revenue Machine | Why We Do Not Have Customer Success or SDRs | Why I Do Not Believe in Sales Quotas with Shaunt Voskanian, CRO @ Figma | The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch | Kazuhakazuha.ai
  5. 5How Figma gets customers (1B ARR)growthsprints.beehiiv.com
  6. 6From design tool to $1B revenue and a $20B acquisition attempt — community made the sales team redundantnrich.io
  7. 7Adobe Q2 FY 2026: AI Demand Strengthens Results as...futurumgroup.com

9. What is the historical quarter-over-quarter growth trend for Figma's >$100k ARR customer segment over the past eight fiscal quarters?

Q2 2025 Customers >$100k ARR1,119 [1]
Q4 2025 Customers >$100k ARR1,405 [2]
Q1 2026 Customers >$100k ARR1,525 [3]
Figma's high-value customer segment demonstrates consistent quarter-over-quarter growth. Figma's paid customer segment, comprising those with over $100,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), has exhibited consistent quarter-over-quarter growth over the four most recently reported fiscal quarters. While this segment shows a clear upward trend, the provided data covers only this four-quarter period, making it impossible to fully ascertain a comprehensive historical trend for the past eight fiscal quarters.
This segment's customer count grew steadily across four fiscal quarters. The number of paid customers with ARR exceeding $100,000 rose consistently from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026. In Q2 2025, the segment had 1,119 customers [1]. This figure increased to 1,262 customers in Q3 2025 [4], and further to 1,405 customers by Q4 2025 [2]. Concluding on March 31, 2026, Q1 2026 reported 1,525 customers in this high-value segment [3]. This progression clearly illustrates a sustained upward trajectory in the number of customers generating over $100,000 in ARR for Figma.
Future expectations anticipate continued expansion in this high-value customer group. Indicators suggest continued expansion for this customer segment, as reflected in a prediction market tracking Q2 2026 customer numbers. This market features strike prices ranging from 1,550 to 1,675 [5][6][7], indicating an expectation of further growth.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Figma Announces Second Quarter 2025 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
  2. 2About Us | Oil & Gas Journal - Figma Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  3. 3Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusiness.theantlersamerican.com
  4. 4Figma Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
  5. 5Figma paid customers >$100 k arr in Q2kalshi.com
  6. 6Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q2 — Financials odds compared | OddsBridge — OddsBridgeoddsbridge.app
  7. 7Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q2 — Kalshi Quoten & Einblicke | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

10. Beyond the upcoming Q2 earnings report, what product launches or market shifts could act as major catalysts for Figma's enterprise growth in H2 2026?

Enterprise Customer Growth48% YoY increase in customers with >$100k ARR (Q1 2026) [1][2][3][4]
AI Credit Purchase75% of enterprise customers purchasing additional AI credits [1][2][3][4]
Monetization Model IntroductionHybrid monetization model introduced in 2026 [5][1][6][7][3]
AI tools and market shifts will drive enterprise growth. Figma's enterprise growth in H2 2026 is expected to be significantly propelled by the deeper integration of design, engineering, and product management workflows, primarily through new AI-driven tools such as Code Layers, Figma Motion, and Agentic workflows [7][3][8]. Concurrently, market shifts, including the expanding population of non-designers performing design tasks and the increasing complexity of overall workflows, contribute to this growth. These shifts emphasize the need for a unified collaboration platform, giving Figma an advantage over fragmented AI-native solutions [7][2][3].
Figma aims for a "control layer" with new monetization. These strategic initiatives are crucial to Figma's H2 2026 growth strategy, positioning the company as a foundational "control layer" for product development [7][3][8]. In 2026, Figma also rolled out a hybrid monetization model, which combines traditional seat-based licensing with usage-based AI credits [5][1][6][7][3]. This model is bolstered by strong enterprise performance, evidenced by a 48% year-over-year increase in customers with annual recurring revenue exceeding $100,000 as of Q1 2026, and 75% of enterprise customers choosing to purchase additional AI credits [1][2][3][4].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  2. 2BofA Reinstates Figma at Buy, Sees Generative AI as a Growth Catalysttradevae.com
  3. 3Figma (FIG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
  5. 5Figma (FIG) Transcript: Config 2026stockanalysis.com
  6. 6How Does Figma Make Money: Seats, AI Credits, and the $333M-Quarter Business Model | Value Add VCvalueaddvc.com
  7. 7Figma (FIG): Product-Creation Control Plane for AIprofitvisionlab.com
  8. 8Can Figma (FIG) Stay the Control Layer for Product Design as Competition Mounts? - Insider Monkeyinsidermonkey.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Figma's Q1 2026 revenue was $333.4 million, representing a 46% year-over-year increase [1][2]. As of March 31, 2026, the company reported 1,525 paid customers with over $100,000 in ARR, a 48% year-over-year rise [3][4][1][5]. The net dollar retention rate for customers with over $10,000 in ARR stood at 139% [1][2]. Bullish catalysts include accelerated AI usage through offerings such as Figma Make, Weave, and MCP [6], robust enterprise expansion [6], and potential AI credit monetization [6].
Conversely, bearish catalysts encompass a significant August 2026 share lock-up expiration [7], AI-driven disruption of existing seat-based models [6], and potential competitive commoditization [6]. Figma's full-year 2026 revenue guidance is set between $1.422 billion and $1.428 billion, implying 35% year-over-year growth at the midpoint [1][2]. Non-GAAP operating income for the full year is projected from $125 million to $135 million [1][2].
Upcoming key dates include Figma's next earnings report on August 5, 2026, followed by another report on September 9, 2026 [7][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 26, 2027
  • Closes: May 26, 2027
Sources (8)
  1. 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
  2. 2Prepared Remarks: Figma Q1 2026 Earningss206.q4cdn.com
  3. 3Documentsec.gov
  4. 4Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.wedbush.com
  5. 5Figma revenue jumps 46% but swings to quarterly loss | FIG Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  6. 6Figma (FIG) Price Prediction 2026: $36.00 AI Launchpad or Overvalued Post-IPO Hangover Trap?bingx.com
  7. 7Figma Stock Rose 9% This Week: Where FIG Could Go in 2026 | TIKR.comtikr.com
  8. 8Price Prediction: Figma Will End The Year at This Price - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com