Figma paid customers >$100k arr in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Above 1850 likely given 48% YoY growth for >$100k ARR customers (Q1 2026).
- Surpassing 1950 is possible with H2 2026 AI product integrations and hybrid monetization.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2000 | 40.0% | 42.0% | Model higher by 2.0pp |
| Above 1950 | 54.0% | 48.5% | Market higher by 5.5pp |
| Above 1850 | 74.0% | 72.5% | Market higher by 1.5pp |
| Above 1900 | 67.0% | 55.2% | Market higher by 11.8pp |
| Above 2050 | 45.0% | 35.5% | Market higher by 9.5pp |
Current Context
Sources (8)
- 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
- 2Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
- 3Figma (FIG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4Figma Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
- 5Figma Posts 46% YoY Revenue Rise | SaaS Newssaasrise.com
- 6Figma Q1 2026 revenue jumps 46% to $333M | FIG 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 7Figma to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial...investor.figma.com
- 8Investor Relations | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 July 30, 2026: 53.0pp drop
Price decreased from 87.0% to 34.0%
Outcome: Above 2000
📈 July 29, 2026: 86.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 87.0%
Outcome: Above 2000
Sources (12)
- 1Why Figma Stock Lost 52% in the First Half of 2026 | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 2Figma Stock Drops 44% in 2026 on Fears of AI Design Competition | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 3Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
- 4Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
- 5Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.wedbush.com
- 6Figma Stock Is Up 22% This Week: Here’s What’s Fueling the Rally | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 7www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 8www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
- 9www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
- 10www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
- 11www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
- 12www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market concerns the number of Figma paid customers with over $100k Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in fiscal 2026.
A YES resolution for a specific contract is triggered if the number of Figma paid customers with >$100k ARR in fiscal 2026 is above the threshold specified in that contract (e.g., above 1950). Conversely, a NO resolution is triggered if this number is not above the specified threshold. Trading for this market ends on February 25, 4:00 PM EST, and the maximum payout date is May 26, 2027. No special settlement conditions are explicitly stated.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1850 | $0.82 | $0.26 | 74% |
| Above 1900 | $0.69 | $0.40 | 67% |
| Above 1950 | $0.58 | $0.51 | 54% |
| Above 2050 | $0.24 | $0.85 | 45% |
| Above 2000 | $0.42 | $0.67 | 40% |
Market Discussion
Figma announced 1,525 paid customers with over $100,000 in ARR as of March 31, 2026, representing a 48% year-over-year growth from 1,031 customers in Q1 2025 [1][2][3][4]. Market commentary and analyst discussions frequently highlight the expansion of this enterprise customer segment as a key bull signal for Figma, pointing to deeper engagement, including AI credit consumption and seat expansion, and supporting buy ratings despite broader market concerns [5][6][7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
- 2Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
- 3Figma revenue jumps 46% but swings to quarterly loss | FIG Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
- 4Financials - Quarterly Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
- 5Prepared Remarks: Figma Q1 2026 Earningss206.q4cdn.com
- 6Figma Grows 46% and Trades at 6x. Everyone Else Growing 30%+ Trades at 15-36x. | SaaStrAIsaastr.com
- 7Figma stock jumps 6% as BofA backs AI outlookinvezz.com
- 8Figma (FIG) Down 80% From Peak — 46% Revenue Growth, $30 Targettradingkey.com
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What quarterly net additions of >$100k ARR customers are required in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of FY2026 for Figma to surpass the 1,950-customer mark?
| Target customer mark for FY2026 | 1,950 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Customers at end of Q1 2026 | 1,525 [1][2][3] |
| Additional customers required | 425 [1][2][3] |
7. What are the latest consensus analyst estimates for Figma's total >$100k ARR customer count at the end of fiscal year 2026?
| FY2026 End >$100k ARR Customer Estimates | Not available [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 >$100k ARR Customers | 1,525 (as of March 31, 2026) [1][2][3] |
| FY2025 End >$100k ARR Customers | 1,405 (as of December 31, 2025) [4][5][6] |
Sources (8)
- 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
- 2Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
- 3Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.wedbush.com
- 4Financials - Quarterly Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
- 5Figma Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025...investor.figma.com
- 6About Us | Oil & Gas Journal - Figma Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
- 7Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q2 — Financials odds compared | OddsBridge — OddsBridgeoddsbridge.app
- 8Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q2 — Kalshi Quoten & Einblicke | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
8. How does Figma's enterprise customer acquisition strategy compare to that of Adobe's Creative Cloud for Enterprise in the current fiscal year?
| Figma Paid Customers >$100k ARR | 1,525 (as of March 31, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Figma YoY Growth for >$100k ARR Customers | 48% [1][2] |
| Adobe Q2 2026 Freemium MAU Surge | 70% [3] |
Sources (7)
- 1Documentsec.gov
- 2Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 3Adobe (ADBE) Q2 2026: Freemium MAU Surges 70%, Signaling Strategic Pivot to AI-Driven User Acquisition | EarningsIQearningsiq.co
- 420Sales: Inside Figma's $1BN ARR Revenue Machine | Why We Do Not Have Customer Success or SDRs | Why I Do Not Believe in Sales Quotas with Shaunt Voskanian, CRO @ Figma | The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch | Kazuhakazuha.ai
- 5How Figma gets customers (1B ARR)growthsprints.beehiiv.com
- 6From design tool to $1B revenue and a $20B acquisition attempt — community made the sales team redundantnrich.io
- 7Adobe Q2 FY 2026: AI Demand Strengthens Results as...futurumgroup.com
9. What is the historical quarter-over-quarter growth trend for Figma's >$100k ARR customer segment over the past eight fiscal quarters?
| Q2 2025 Customers >$100k ARR | 1,119 [1] |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 Customers >$100k ARR | 1,405 [2] |
| Q1 2026 Customers >$100k ARR | 1,525 [3] |
Sources (7)
- 1Figma Announces Second Quarter 2025 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
- 2About Us | Oil & Gas Journal - Figma Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
- 3Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusiness.theantlersamerican.com
- 4Figma Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
- 5Figma paid customers >$100 k arr in Q2kalshi.com
- 6Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q2 — Financials odds compared | OddsBridge — OddsBridgeoddsbridge.app
- 7Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q2 — Kalshi Quoten & Einblicke | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
10. Beyond the upcoming Q2 earnings report, what product launches or market shifts could act as major catalysts for Figma's enterprise growth in H2 2026?
| Enterprise Customer Growth | 48% YoY increase in customers with >$100k ARR (Q1 2026) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| AI Credit Purchase | 75% of enterprise customers purchasing additional AI credits [1][2][3][4] |
| Monetization Model Introduction | Hybrid monetization model introduced in 2026 [5][1][6][7][3] |
Sources (8)
- 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
- 2BofA Reinstates Figma at Buy, Sees Generative AI as a Growth Catalysttradevae.com
- 3Figma (FIG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
- 5Figma (FIG) Transcript: Config 2026stockanalysis.com
- 6How Does Figma Make Money: Seats, AI Credits, and the $333M-Quarter Business Model | Value Add VCvalueaddvc.com
- 7Figma (FIG): Product-Creation Control Plane for AIprofitvisionlab.com
- 8Can Figma (FIG) Stay the Control Layer for Product Design as Competition Mounts? - Insider Monkeyinsidermonkey.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 26, 2027
- Closes: May 26, 2027
Sources (8)
- 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
- 2Prepared Remarks: Figma Q1 2026 Earningss206.q4cdn.com
- 3Documentsec.gov
- 4Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.wedbush.com
- 5Figma revenue jumps 46% but swings to quarterly loss | FIG Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
- 6Figma (FIG) Price Prediction 2026: $36.00 AI Launchpad or Overvalued Post-IPO Hangover Trap?bingx.com
- 7Figma Stock Rose 9% This Week: Where FIG Could Go in 2026 | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 8Price Prediction: Figma Will End The Year at This Price - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com