Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Figma paid customers exceeding $100k ARR in Q3 will be Above 1725, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market saw an abrupt and decisive repricing over two days. The contract, which measures the probability of Figma having a certain number of paid customers with over $100k in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in Q3 2026, traded at just 1.0% on July 29, 2026. It then surged 56.0 percentage points to 57.0% on the same day. The following day, July 30, it climbed another 33.0 percentage points to settle at 90.0%, its current price. While the inputs do not specify a catalyst for the initial jump to 57.0%, the subsequent move to 90.0% is attributed to a broader rally in Figma's stock price ahead of its scheduled Q2 2026 earnings release on August 5.
The price action suggests a powerful shift in market sentiment, extrapolating positive Q2 expectations into Q3. Traders appear to be betting that the momentum implied by the stock rally will translate into continued strong enterprise customer acquisition. The market's current 90.0% probability level acts as a new ceiling, with the 57.0% mark representing a potential support level established during the rapid ascent. Total volume traded is 67 contracts, a relatively modest figure. The provided data points show zero volume accompanying the most significant price moves, which may indicate a thinly traded market where small orders can cause large price swings.
The market's sharp upward trend reflects a high degree of confidence that Figma will meet the specified customer metric. This is a significant repricing from the near-zero probability assigned just days prior. The sentiment is currently tied to expectations for the upcoming Q2 earnings report, which traders seem to believe will signal sufficient growth to clear the Q3 customer benchmark. Figma reported 1,525 customers in this category at the end of Q1 2026.
  • Above 1725 paid customers >$100k ARR appears probable, reflecting Q1's 1,525 customers.
  • New AI features and credit monetization are expected to drive enterprise customer upgrades.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 1725 93.0% 90.0% Market higher by 3.0pp
Above 1750 87.0% 87.1% Model higher by 0.1pp
Above 1800 40.0% 46.9% Model higher by 6.9pp
Above 1775 58.0% 59.1% Model higher by 1.1pp
Above 1850 7.0% 8.6% Model higher by 1.6pp

Current Context

Figma's Q3 2026 customer count exceeding $100k ARR is not public. Figma reported 1,525 paid customers with over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) as of March 31, 2026, the close of Q1 2026 [1][2]. The company is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 financial results on August 5, 2026 [3]. As of July 30, 2026, Q3 2026 financial results remain unreleased [3].
Recent strategic moves and strong Q1 performance may impact future ARR. Figma's Q1 2026 revenue increased 46% year-over-year [4]. Strategic developments include the July 2026 acquisition of the team behind the AI agent platform 'Bud' [5]. At the Config 2026 conference in June, Figma unveiled new AI-driven features such as 'Code Layers', 'Motion', and 'Canvas Agent' [6][7]. These initiatives aim to fuel application growth and differentiation [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
  2. 2Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
  3. 3Investor Relations | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  4. 4Figma Posts 46% YoY Revenue Rise | SaaS Newssaasrise.com
  5. 5Figma acquires team behind a vibe-coding app | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
  6. 6Figma Stock Is Up 22% This Week: Here’s What’s Fueling the Rally | TIKR.comtikr.com
  7. 7Figma Says AI Agents Fuel App Boom, Making Differentiation Key - Seoul Economic Dailyen.sedaily.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 1725

📈 July 30, 2026: 33.0pp spike

Price increased from 57.0% to 90.0%

What happened: The 33.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on July 30, 2026, was primarily driven by a broader surge in Figma's stock price during the final week of July [1][2]. This positive market sentiment stemmed from anticipation of Figma's Q2 2026 earnings, scheduled for release on August 5, 2026, and momentum surrounding its AI features [1][2]. These factors likely increased confidence among market participants regarding Figma's ability to grow its high-value customer base to above 1725 customers in Q3. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver or significant accelerant based on the provided information.

Outcome: Above 1750

📈 July 29, 2026: 86.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 87.0%

What happened: The provided research offers no evidence of an 86.0 percentage point spike or a news catalyst specifically for "Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3" on July 29, 2026 [3]. While Figma's stock experienced a surge on July 2, 2026, driven by Russell 3000 index inclusion, this event is unrelated to the specific market metric or date of the purported movement [3][4]. As no social media activity from key figures or traditional announcements were found to cause such a price shift on July 29, 2026, a primary driver cannot be identified, and social media appears irrelevant to the described, unconfirmed movement.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Figma (NYSE:FIG) spikes after Russell news and call action hits shortsts2.tech
  2. 2Figma Stock Is Up 22% This Week: Here’s What’s Fueling the Rally | TIKR.comtikr.com
  3. 3DeadStack / Figma shares surge after Russell inclusion and easing AI-disruption fearsdeadstack.net
  4. 4DeadStackdeadstack.net

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves based on the number of Figma paid customers generating over $100k in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in Q3. A "Yes" contract resolves if this number exceeds the specific numerical threshold for that contract, and a "No" contract resolves if it is less than or equal to that threshold. The market begins trading on November 4th at 4:00 PM EST, and the maximum payout date is March 12, 2027. No special settlement conditions are explicitly provided beyond the numerical thresholds for each contract.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 1725 $0.95 $0.14 93%
Above 1750 $0.85 $0.24 87%
Above 1775 $0.60 $0.49 58%
Above 1800 $0.48 $0.60 40%
Above 1825 $0.33 $0.76 31%
Above 1850 $0.09 $0.98 7%

Market Discussion

Figma announced 1,262 paid customers with $100,000 or more in ARR as of September 30, 2025 (Q3 2025) [1][2][3][4]. This figure grew to 1,405 by December 31, 2025 (Q4 2025), and further increased to 1,525 as of March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026) [5][6]. Public discussion (as of July 2026) highlights robust operational metrics, though market skepticism persists regarding AI competitive threats and SaaS valuation multiples [7][8][9][10].

Sources (10)
  1. 1Figma Reports $274M Revenue, Up 38% as Guidance Raised | FIG Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  2. 2Figma Beats Q3 Estimates, Stock Climbs - Figma (NYSE:FIG) - Benzingabenzinga.com
  3. 3Business Insurance - Magazine - Figma Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Resultsindex.businessinsurance.com
  4. 4Figma Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Resultsbr.advfn.com
  5. 5Documentsec.gov
  6. 6Figma Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  7. 7Figma (FIG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  8. 8Figma stock jumps as first-quarter revenue surges 46% on AI monetization traction - SiliconANGLEsiliconangle.com
  9. 9Figma (FIG) Price Prediction 2026: $36.00 AI Launchpad or Overvalued Post-IPO Hangover Trap?bingx.com
  10. 10Figma (FIG) Down 80% From Peak — 46% Revenue Growth, $30 Targettradingkey.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 64 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score71Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score35High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score64Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
87Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXFIG-26NOVHIARR-1,725 carried 38% of its $135 tape (print is 17d old)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesPrice moves carried real volume. Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1725—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
65Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 172565
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1725100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
35High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

Move quality avg 65 across 1 legs

$100 order: 4.5c slippage (~5% of a 90.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1725–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality65Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
65 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 18, 2026

6. What are the current Wall Street analyst forecasts for Figma's customer growth and revenue in Q2 and Q3 2026?

Figma Q2 2026 Revenue Guidance$348.0 million to $350.0 million (approximately 40% YOY growth at midpoint) [1][2]
Bank of America 2026 ARR Customer Growth Projection26.2% increase in customers generating over $100,000 ARR [3]
Paid Customers (>$100k ARR) as of March 31, 20261,520 (46% YOY growth) [1]
Figma has provided guidance for its Q2 2026 revenue, projecting it to reach between $348.0 million and $350.0 million [1][2]. This estimate reflects a substantial year-over-year growth of approximately 40% at the midpoint. The company is scheduled to report its Q2 2026 financial results on August 5, 2026 [4][5].
Specific Wall Street analyst forecasts for Q2 and Q3 2026 revenue and customer growth are not extensively detailed in the available information. However, Bank of America anticipates that Figma customers generating over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) will experience a 26.2% increase throughout 2026 [3]. As of March 31, 2026, Figma reported 1,520 paid customers in this high-value category, indicating a 46% year-over-year growth [1].
Official company guidance for Q3 2026 revenue is currently unavailable in the provided information. Such projections are typically disclosed during quarterly earnings calls [4][5]. Beyond Figma's own Q2 2026 revenue guidance and Bank of America's annual projection for 2026, specific detailed analyst forecasts for customer growth or revenue for Q2 or Q3 2026 are not provided.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  2. 2Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
  3. 3Figma stock jumps 6% as BofA backs AI outlookinvezz.com
  4. 4Investor Relations | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  5. 5Figma to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial...investor.figma.com

7. What is the expected impact of Figma's new AI features, unveiled at Config 2026, on its ability to attract and upgrade enterprise customers in Q2 and Q3 2026?

Q1 2026 Customers >$100k ARR1,525 (as of March 31, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5]
Q1 2026 YoY Customer Growth48% (for customers >$100k ARR) [1][2][3][4][5]
Q2 2026 Target Customers >$100k ARR1,650 (prediction market) [6][7]
Figma's new AI features target enterprise customer growth and platform engagement. Unveiled at Config 2026, these innovations are projected to improve the company's ability to attract new enterprise customers and upgrade existing ones during Q2 and Q3 2026 [8][9][10][11][6][7]. Key features include Code Layers, native animation support (Figma Motion), custom generative plugins, and advanced agent workflows [8][9][10][11]. These additions were specifically introduced to drive greater enterprise adoption and enhance platform stickiness [8][9][10][11].
Strong Q1 2026 AI monetization sets stage for future growth. This strategic product enhancement follows robust AI monetization observed in the first quarter of 2026, where Figma reported 1,525 customers paying over $100,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) as of March 31, 2026 [1][2][3][5][4]. This represented a significant 48% year-over-year increase [1][2][3][5][4]. Management highlighted early success in AI monetization during Q1 2026, noting the implementation of AI credit limits on March 18, 2026 [1][2][3][5]. Prediction markets anticipate continued enterprise expansion for Q2 2026, forecasting 1,650 paid customers with over $100,000 ARR [6][7]. The company's performance throughout both Q2 and Q3 2026 remains directly linked to the successful adoption of these recently launched Config 2026 features [6][7].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  2. 2Prepared Remarks: Figma Q1 2026 Earningss206.q4cdn.com
  3. 3Figma Earnings Call: Accelerating Growth Fueled by AI - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  4. 4Figma Stock Surges 13% After Revenue Growth Reaccelerates to 46% in Q1 2026 | TIKR.comtikr.com
  5. 5Figma (FIG) Price Prediction 2026: $36.00 AI Launchpad or Overvalued Post-IPO Hangover Trap?bingx.com
  6. 6Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q2 | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
  7. 7Figma paid customers >$100 k arr in Q2kalshi.com
  8. 8Config 2026: New Materials, New Tools and a More...figma.com
  9. 9What's new from Config 2026help.figma.com
  10. 10Figma adds code layers to the canvas and lets users build custom AI plugins at Config 2026thenextweb.com
  11. 11Config 2026 - AI blurs the lines as Figma brings code, motion and agent workflows into its design canvasdiginomica.com

8. How does Figma's recent enterprise customer growth compare to that of Adobe's Creative Cloud and Experience Cloud for H1 2026?

Figma Paid Customers >$100k ARR1,525 (as of Q1 2026) [1][2][3]
Figma >$100k ARR Customer Growth48% year-over-year (Q1 2026) [1][2][3]
Adobe Creative & Marketing Professionals Subscription Revenue Growth13% year-over-year (Q2 FY2026) [4][5]
Figma reported strong enterprise customer growth in early 2026. As of the first quarter of 2026, ending March 31, Figma had 1,525 paid customers generating more than $100,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) [1][2][3]. This figure represents a substantial 48% year-over-year growth in this key segment [1][2][3]. Prediction markets indicate high confidence, at 96%, that Figma will further expand its base to surpass 1,550 paid customers exceeding $100,000 in ARR by the end of Q2 2026 [6].
Adobe reported steady revenue growth for its Creative and Marketing Professionals segment. For its fiscal second quarter of 2026, which concluded on May 29, Adobe announced that its Creative & Marketing Professionals subscription revenue reached $4.54 billion [4][5]. This marked a 13% year-over-year increase [4][5]. Additionally, Adobe's total revenue for the same period was $6.62 billion, also reflecting a 13% year-over-year growth [4][5].
Direct comparisons of enterprise customer growth are limited by data availability. The available research does not include specific information regarding the growth performance of Adobe's Experience Cloud for the first half of 2026. Furthermore, a direct comparative analysis of enterprise customer growth rates between Figma and specific Adobe cloud segments is not provided within the research.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  2. 2Figma (FIG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3Figma Stock Surges 13% After Revenue Growth Reaccelerates to 46% in Q1 2026 | TIKR.comtikr.com
  4. 4Adobe Inc. (ADBE) 10-Q Quarterly Report June 2026last10k.com
  5. 5Adobe Reports Record Q2 Results – Company Announcement - FT.commarkets-data-api-proxy.ft.com
  6. 6Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q2 — Financials odds compared | OddsBridge — OddsBridgeoddsbridge.app

9. What alternative datasets or leading indicators can be used to gauge Figma's enterprise sales momentum ahead of the official Q3 2026 report?

Figma Make Weekly UsageOver 50% of >$100k ARR customers [1][2][3]
Enterprise AI Credit PurchaseOver 75% of enterprise clients (as of Q1 2026) [4][5][3]
PLG Enterprise Deals OriginApproximately 70% from lower-tier plans [1][6][7]
Figma's enterprise sales momentum is significantly influenced by AI product engagement. Over 50% of customers with over $100k Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) utilize "Figma Make" weekly, establishing AI engagement as a critical leading indicator [1][2][3]. Furthermore, the purchase of AI credits serves as a key driver of high-margin incremental revenue. In Q1 2026, over 75% of enterprise clients acquired additional AI credits, a crucial sign for achieving expansion targets exceeding $100k ARR [4][5][3].
Figma's product-led growth model offers insights into future enterprise upselling. Approximately 70% of enterprise and organization deals originate from lower-tier plans, making monitoring organic engagement crucial for predicting potential enterprise conversions [1][6][7]. Beyond direct product usage, alternative data signals provide real-time insights into operational scale. These include tracking job postings, currently around 365 roles, and evaluating employee sentiment about the business outlook, both of which offer early indicators of Figma's capacity to support enterprise growth ahead of official reports [8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Financials - Quarterly Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  2. 2Figma Just Hit $304M in a Single Quarter. Growing 40%. And...saastr.com
  3. 3Figma Stock Surges 13% After Revenue Growth Reaccelerates to 46% in Q1 2026 | TIKR.comtikr.com
  4. 4Figma Stock Gains 7% on Claude Code Integration: Why Claude Integration Secures a $72 Target | TIKR.comtikr.com
  5. 5Figma (FIG) Financial Prediction Report • Dev|Journalearezki.com
  6. 6Top 10 Insights From Figma's IPO Docs … That You May Have...cloud.substack.com
  7. 7Evaluating Figma's S-1 - Ignite Insightsinsights.teamignite.ventures
  8. 8Figma (FIG) Stock Analysis: AI Score, Insider Trading & Alternative Data | AltIndexaltindex.com
  9. 9Figma (FIG) AI Stock Analysis: AI Score & Signal Breakdown 2026 | AltIndexaltindex.com
  10. 10Figma's Record-Breaking IPO: What Alternative Data Tells Us...altindex.com

10. What has been the quarter-over-quarter growth rate of Figma's paid customers with over $100k in ARR for the last four reported quarters?

Paid customers >$100k ARR (Q2 2025)1,119 [1]
QoQ Growth (Q3 2025)12.78% [1][2][3][4][5]
QoQ Growth (Q4 2025)11.33% [1][2][3][4][5]
Figma’s high-value customer segment consistently grew over four quarters. The company reported 1,119 paid customers with over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the second quarter of 2025 [1]. This customer segment demonstrated a consistent increase in subsequent quarters.
Customer growth rates varied, peaking in Q3 2025. In the third quarter of 2025, this segment experienced an approximate quarter-over-quarter growth rate of 12.78%, reaching 1,262 customers [1][2][3][4][5]. Growth continued into the fourth quarter of 2025 with an 11.33% rate, bringing the total to 1,405 customers [2][3][4]. The first quarter of 2026 saw an 8.54% growth rate, increasing the number of customers to 1,525 [2][3][4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Figma Announces Second Quarter 2025 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
  2. 2Figma Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
  3. 3Figma Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  4. 4Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
  5. 5Figma 1Q'26: "Not Dead" - MBI Deep Divesmbideepdives.substack.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key catalysts for Figma in 2026 include the August 2026 lock-up expiration, involving approximately $6B in low-cost-basis shares, ongoing AI credit monetization, and the next earnings report scheduled for September 9, 2026 [1].
Bullish sentiment is driven by accelerating revenue growth, successful AI credit monetization, with over 75% of enterprise users exceeding limits opting to purchase additional credits, and strong seat expansion [1]. For Q1 2026, Figma announced total revenue of $333.4 million, representing 46% year-over-year growth [2]. As of March 31, 2026, the company reported 1,525 paid customers with more than $100,000 in ARR, reflecting a 48% year-over-year growth rate [3][2]. Net Dollar Retention (NDR) reached 139%, the highest level in over two years [2][4].
Conversely, bearish risks include potential AI commoditization, competitive pressure, and the market supply overhang from the August lock-up [1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 12, 2027
  • Closes: March 12, 2027
Sources (4)
  1. 1Figma Stock Rose 9% This Week: Where FIG Could Go in 2026 | TIKR.comtikr.com
  2. 2Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  3. 3Documentsec.gov
  4. 4Figma (FIG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com