Short Answer

Figma is likely to report more than 1,725 paid customers with over $100k ARR in Q3 2026, driven by reported Q2 2026 customer additions, historical growth trends, and strong AI adoption metrics. The market prices this outcome at 93%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has been static since its inception, with no price movement or trading volume. The market's high probability of 93.0% is anchored by Figma's last official financial disclosure.
The most recent data from Figma's Q2 2026 report showed the company had 1,635 paid customers with at least $100,000 in annual recurring revenue. This figure represented a 46% year-over-year increase. The market appears to have priced in a high likelihood that this number would not decline in the subsequent quarter. The absence of any trading activity suggests no new information has challenged this baseline expectation.
  • Since last update (~12h): Model probability for "Above 1725" increased 10.0pp to 100%; the edge flipped, model-led.
  • Our model significantly reduced "Above 1825" probability by 11.1pp; edge flipped, model-led.
  • Probability for "Above 1800" declined by 7.1pp, compressing the edge on this model-led outcome.
  • Figma likely exceeds 1,725; AI feature adoption drives enterprise upgrades.
  • Strong enterprise growth and Q3 2026 revenue guidance support >1,750.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 1800 49.0% 39.8% Market higher by 9.2pp
Above 1725 93.0% 100.0% Model higher by 7.0pp
Above 1750 87.0% 92.0% Model higher by 5.0pp
Above 1775 58.0% 63.4% Model higher by 5.4pp
Above 1850 7.0% 11.6% Model higher by 4.6pp

Current Context

Figma has not yet officially reported Q3 2026 results; the latest figures available are for Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026 [1][2][3]. In Q2 2026, Figma reported 1,635 paid customers with at least $100,000 ARR, representing a 46% year-over-year increase [1][2][3]. This compares to 1,525 customers in Q1 2026, up 48% year over year, and 1,262 in Q3 2025 [1][2][3]. Quarterly revenue reached $370.1 million, up 48% year over year, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 85% and non-GAAP operating income of $36.1 million [2][3][4]. The company also reported 15,964 customers with at least $10,000 ARR, a 34% year-over-year increase, and a net dollar retention of 136% [2][3][4]. More than 80% of customers above the $10,000 ARR threshold were consuming AI credits weekly, and over 50% were using Figma Agent weekly by July's end [2][3][4].
Q3 guidance and prediction markets suggest continued customer growth. Management projected Q3 2026 revenue between $373 million and $375 million, implying a 36% year-over-year increase at the midpoint [2][3][4]. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $1.463 billion-$1.467 billion, while non-GAAP operating income guidance held at $125 million-$135 million [2][3][4]. The Kalshi prediction market for Q3 2026 paid customers exceeding $100,000 ARR indicates a trader forecast of 1,788 or more, a 9.4% sequential increase from Q2's 1,635 [5][6]. As of October 24, 2026, pricing on this market showed a 90%-93% probability of exceeding 1,725 customers, with the ladder indicating 79.5% above 1,750, 55% above 1,775, 45.5% above 1,800, 28% above 1,825, and 5% above 1,850 [6]. These prices carry low liquidity and should not be considered a reliable consensus [6]. Analyst interpretation is generally constructive on growth, citing accelerating revenue, strong retention, seat expansion, and AI monetization, though Zacks assigned a Hold rating after Q2 due to downward estimate revisions [3][4]. The Kalshi market lists November 4, 2026, as the next report date and will resolve on March 12, 2027, based on reported Q3 KPI [5][6].
Consensus forecasts anticipate strong growth for high-value customers. The best-supported forecast for Q3 2026 paid customers above $100,000 ARR is approximately 1,780-1,800, with the Kalshi trader point estimate at 1,788 [1][2][3][7]. This forecast implies sequential growth of roughly 9%-10% from Q2's 1,635 customers and year-over-year growth of about 41%-43% from 1,262 in Q3 2025 [1][2][3][7]. This remains a forecast, not reported company data [1][2][3][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Financials - Quarterly Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3Figma (FIG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Figma, Inc. (FIG) Up 5.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?finance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Figma (FIG) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
  6. 6Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7Figma, Inc. (FIG) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3" market's "Above 1800" contract, a "Yes" resolution occurs if the number of Figma's paid customers with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) exceeding $100,000 in Q3 is greater than 1800. Conversely, a "No" resolution occurs if this number is 1800 or less. Trading for this market ends on November 4, 4:00 PM EST. No specific settlement conditions or data sources beyond the stated metric are detailed in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 1725 $0.94 $0.15 93%
Above 1750 $0.86 $0.23 87%
Above 1775 $0.62 $0.47 58%
Above 1800 $0.52 $0.57 49%
Above 1825 $0.34 $0.75 31%
Above 1850 $0.09 $0.98 7%

Market Discussion

Figma reported 1,635 paid customers with over $100,000 ARR in Q2 2026, and the Kalshi Q3 2026 contract forecasts this number to reach 1,788, representing approximately 9.4% sequential growth [1][2][3][4]. As of October 24, 2026, market-implied probabilities indicate a high likelihood of exceeding 1,725 (93%) and 1,750 (87%), but the probability for figures above 1,800 is 39% and above 1,825 is 23% [4]. This reflects a nuanced outlook despite Figma's consistent sequential growth in this KPI and strong AI adoption among its larger customers [4][5][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2Figma (FIG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3Figma (FIG) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
  4. 4Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  5. 5Financials - Quarterly Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  6. 6FIG 10-Q Filings - Figma SEC 10-Qstocktitan.net

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 64 Caution

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score70Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score41High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score64Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesPrice moves carried real volume. Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
51Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

2 contracts · worst first · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 180051
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 1725—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
66Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

2 contracts · worst first · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 180066
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 24h

Above 1725—
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1725100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 1800100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
41High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 51 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 4.5c slippage (~5% of a 89.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

4 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 1725–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 180051Market scoreLiquidity51Move quality66Rule clarity100
Why 51
Liquidity
51 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
66 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 2, 2026

5. What does Figma's historical quarterly growth in >$100k ARR customers since Q3 2025 imply for the current Q3 2026 market forecast?

Q2 2026 >$100k ARR Customers1,635 [1][2]
Q2 2026 QoQ Customer Growth Rate7.2% [1][2]
Prediction Market Probability >1,800 Customers39% [3][4][5]
Figma's customer growth has decelerated, impacting Q3 2026 forecasts despite strong revenue. Figma's historical quarterly growth in >$100k ARR paid customers has shown deceleration through Q2 2026, which impacts the Q3 2026 market forecast [3][1][6][7]. While the prediction market prices high probabilities for exceeding lower customer thresholds, the historical trend suggests less confidence in outcomes above 1,800 customers [3][1][6][7][2]. This occurs despite strong latest operating data, such as Q2 revenue accelerating 48% year-over-year to $370.1 million [3][1][6][7][2].
Customer base growth rates have steadily decreased over the past year. The company's >$100k ARR paid-customer base rose from 1,119 in Q2 2025 to 1,262 in Q3 2025 [7][8][9], representing 12.8% quarter-over-quarter growth [7][8][9]. This growth continued to 1,405 in Q4 2025, an 11.3% increase QoQ [7][8][9]. The deceleration trend persisted, reaching 1,525 customers in Q1 2026, up 8.5% QoQ, and further to 1,635 in Q2 2026, an increase of 7.2% QoQ [1][6][10][2].
Market predictions for Q3 2026 show limited confidence in higher customer totals. As of October 24, 2026, the prediction market prices a 93% probability of exceeding 1,725 customers, but only 39% for exceeding 1,800 [3][4][5]. An independent market summary provides a 1,786 median forecast [3][4][5]. Projections based on recent sequential growth imply approximately 1,745 customers at a 6.7% quarter-over-quarter rate, or about 1,753 customers using the latest Q2 absolute-addition pace of 110 [3][1][2]. These calculations support the market's lower threshold probabilities but do not suggest a high-confidence outcome above 1,800 [3][1][2].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Figma Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  2. 2Financials - Quarterly Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  3. 3Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5Figma, Inc. (FIG) Stock Price, News & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
  6. 6Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  7. 7Figma Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  8. 8Figma Announces Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  9. 9Figma revenue, valuation & funding | Sacrasacra.com
  10. 108-K: Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmoomoo.com

6. How might the adoption rates of Figma's AI features, such as Figma Agent, impact the number of customers upgrading to the >$100k ARR tier in Q3 2026?

Customers >$100k ARR (Q1 2026)1,525 as of March 31, 2026 [1][2][3]
>$100k ARR customers using Figma Make weekly (Q1)60% [1][2][3]
Projected >$100k ARR customers (Q3 2026)Approximately 1,775–1,800 [4][5][6][1]
Figma's AI features are expected to drive enterprise customer upgrades. The beta rollout of Figma Agent in May 2026 is anticipated to influence the number of customers upgrading to the >$100k ARR tier in Q3 2026. This expectation is rooted in established correlations between AI adoption and enterprise expansion and upsell mechanisms [1][2][3][7]. While AI engagement is reasonably expected to boost upgrades, disclosures provide associations and leading indicators rather than a specific, quantified Figma Agent-to-upgrade conversion rate [1][2][3].
AI engagement strongly correlates with enterprise expansion and upsell mechanisms. Approximately 60% of >$100k ARR customers utilized Figma Make weekly in Q1, an increase from over 50% in the preceding quarter [1][2][3]. AI monetization also serves as an upsell mechanism, as over 75% of Organization and Enterprise users who exceeded AI-credit limits continued using credits in April. Additionally, Professional teams purchasing AI-credit add-ons had an average ARR more than three times higher than those not buying add-ons [1][3]. Figma Agent's beta began in May 2026 for Professional, Organization, and Enterprise Full-seat users, offered free during the beta period; its Q3 impact will depend on both adoption rates and conversion to paid usage upon general availability [7].
Market predictions project significant growth in high-value customers by Q3. As of March 31, 2026, Figma had 1,525 paid customers exceeding $100k ARR entering Q3 2026 [1][2][3]. The prediction market's central estimate for Q3 2026 is approximately 1,775–1,800 >$100k ARR customers, suggesting roughly 250–275 net additions or 16%–18% growth from the Q1 baseline [4][5][6][1]. Market pricing indicated a high probability (93%) of exceeding 1,725 customers, though confidence decreased for higher thresholds, showing a 58% chance of exceeding 1,775 and 39% of exceeding 1,800 [4][5][6]. The market aggregation median was near 1,786, with a middle-half range of 1,755–1,828 [4][5][6].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.figma.com
  2. 2Prepared Remarks: Figma Q1 2026 Earningss206.q4cdn.com
  3. 3Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultssec.gov
  4. 4Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  5. 5Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6Figma, Inc. (FIG) Stock Price, News & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
  7. 7The Figma Design Agent is Here | Figma Blogfigma.com

7. How does Figma's enterprise customer growth and product velocity compare to key competitors like Adobe and Canva in 2026?

Figma $100k+ ARR Customer Growth46-48% year-over-year increase (Q2 2026) [1][2]
Figma $100k+ ARR Customers1,635 (Q2 2026) [1][2]
Adobe FY2026 Q3 Revenue$6.76 billion [3][4][5][6][7][8]
Figma leads in enterprise customer growth and product innovation. The company demonstrated the fastest growth in a key enterprise metric, with its paid customers generating over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) increasing from 1,525 in Q1 2026 to 1,635 in Q2 2026, representing a 46-48% year-over-year rise [1][2]. Figma also maintained high product velocity during the first half of 2026, launching or expanding several AI-native features including Code Layers, Motion, Shaders, and a first-party Figma agent. This agent was reportedly used weekly by more than 50% of its customers with over $10,000 ARR by July 31 [1][2][9]. For Q3 2026, prediction markets support a base case exceeding 1,725 paid customers above $100,000 ARR [1][2][10][11].
Adobe maintains massive scale, integrating AI and expanding through acquisition. The company reported FY2026 Q3 revenue of $6.76 billion and total ending ARR of approximately $27.5 billion, with its AI-first ARR growing more than 150% year over year [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Adobe's 2026 product focus involved extending AI across its Creative Cloud, Express, Firefly, and Experience Cloud offerings [3][6][12]. Additionally, Adobe completed the acquisition of Semrush in April 2026 [3][6][12]. However, public disclosures do not provide a directly comparable count of Adobe customers above $100,000 ARR [3][4][5][6][7][8].
Canva expands its platform, focusing on AI and enterprise aspirations. Its 2026 strategy included broad platform expansion, introducing Canva AI 2.0 with conversational and agentic creation capabilities [13][14][15][16]. To further enhance its offerings, Canva acquired Simtheory and Ortto, aiming to improve AI, collaboration, customer data, and marketing automation functionalities [13][14][15][16]. While Canva is actively pushing into enterprise workflows and marketing operations, an analyst assessment noted that the company still needs to establish enterprise-grade security, governance, reliability, and deep integrations to fully compete in this segment [15][17][18]. Similar to Adobe, Canva lacks a publicly disclosed count of customers above $100,000 ARR [15][17][18].
Sources (18)
  1. 1Figma Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  2. 2Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  3. 3Adobe Newsroomnews.adobe.com
  4. 4Adobe to Acquire Semrushnews.adobe.com
  5. 52024 Press Release Template - July 21, 2025 at 09.45.16news.adobe.com
  6. 62024 Press Release Template - July 21, 2025 at 09.45.16news.adobe.com
  7. 7Adobe beats third-quarter revenue estimates on AI product...reuters.com
  8. 8Adobe Statistics 2026: Revenue, ARR Datasqmagazine.co.uk
  9. 9Financials - Quarterly Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  10. 10Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  11. 11Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  12. 12Adobe Express Accelerates On-Brand Content Creation for Global Enterprises with New Capabilitiesnews.adobe.com
  13. 13From AI research to ready-to-use creative: Canva comes to Perplexity Computercanva.com
  14. 14More from Canva Create: Canva Offline, Pro Design, Learn Grid & Print Shopcanva.com
  15. 15From idea to outcome: Welcoming Simtheory and Ortto to Canvacanva.com
  16. 16Introducing Canva AI 2.0: Reimagining how the world createscanva.com
  17. 17Introducing Canva’s Creative Operating Systemcanva.com
  18. 18Canva's May 2026 Launches Signal an Enterprise Platform...futurumgroup.com

8. What do third-party data sources, such as software usage trackers or corporate job postings, indicate about Figma's enterprise adoption trends in Q3 2026?

Customers above $100K ARR (Q4 2025)1,405 [1][2]
Figma Make weekly usage ($100K+ ARR customers)More than 50% [3]
Companies detected using Figma1,087 [4]
Third-party data, including software usage and corporate job postings, indicates continued enterprise adoption and upmarket expansion for Figma in Q3 2026. The trajectory entering Q3 was strongly enterprise-positive, with Figma having 1,405 customers above $100K ARR at Q4 2025, adding 143 net customers in Q4, and reporting a 46% year-over-year growth for this tier [1][2]. Product usage indicators further support expansion within large accounts, as more than 50% of $100K+ ARR customers used Figma Make weekly, and Figma Make weekly active users grew over 70% quarter over quarter. Additionally, approximately 75% of $10K+ ARR customers consumed AI credits weekly [3][1][2]. Workforce indicators were also expansionary in 2026, with about 2,015 employees and 430 active job postings reported, a 59.4% increase versus 2025 [5].
Technology-detection data confirms broad enterprise penetration for Figma. TechnologyChecker identified Figma across 1,087 companies. Among these detected organizations, 19.4% had 10,000 or more employees, including notable users like Accenture, IBM, Siemens, Samsung, and Ford [4]. While this corroborates Figma's enterprise presence, it does not specifically confirm Q3 customer-count growth [4].
Third-party market signals suggest strong Q3 customer growth. Available third-party market indicators lean toward a Q3 result above the likely resolution threshold [6][7]. As of October 24, 2026, the Q3 2026 prediction market implied roughly 1.79K Figma paid customers above $100K ARR, with high probabilities for exceeding thresholds like 1,725 and 1,750 [6]. An external distribution displayed a 1,786 median with a 1,755–1,828 middle-half range, although outcomes above 1,800 remained materially uncertain [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Figma Q4 Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Figma (FIG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript and Summarygloom.sh
  3. 3Figma Just Hit $304M in a Single Quarter. Growing 40%....linkedin.com
  4. 4Companies Using Figma in 2026: Full Customer List &...technologychecker.io
  5. 5Figma Number of Employees 2026reveliolabs.com
  6. 6Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  7. 7Figma, Inc. (FIG) Stock Price, News & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com

9. Based on Figma's Q3 2026 revenue guidance and historical net dollar retention, what is the implied growth needed from new >$100k ARR customers?

Figma Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance Midpoint$374 million (approximately 36% year-over-year growth) [1][2]
Figma Q2 2026 Revenue$370.1 million [1][2]
Net Dollar Retention (NDR) for >$10k ARR customers136% (as of June 30, 2026) [1][3]
Figma projects significant Q3 2026 revenue growth based on its guidance. Figma has provided Q3 2026 revenue guidance ranging from $373 million to $375 million, with a midpoint of $374 million [1][2]. This guidance suggests an approximate 36% year-over-year growth [1][2]. Achieving this target necessitates a sequential revenue growth of about $3.9 million, or 1.1%, from the Q2 2026 revenue of $370.1 million [1][3].
Existing customers drive substantial growth, but new revenue is still vital. As of June 30, 2026, Figma reported a net dollar retention (NDR) of 136% for paid customers with over $10,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) [1][3]. This indicates that existing-customer expansion is estimated to contribute approximately 36% to the comparable revenue base [1][3]. Consequently, about $3.9 million in incremental revenue is required from new customers, including those newly exceeding the $100,000 ARR threshold, before considering factors like seasonality, bookings-to-revenue timing, and mix [1][3].
Interpreting new customer growth has caveats due to retention data specifics. These calculations are approximate because Figma’s reported net dollar retention applies to the >$10,000 ARR cohort, not specifically the >$100,000 cohort [1][4]. Additionally, Figma’s NDR methodology is cohort-based, which may not be directly comparable to a standard all-customer retention metric [1][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Financials - Quarterly Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  2. 2Figma (FIG) Q2 2026 earnings summaryquartr.com
  3. 3Figma (FIG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript and Summarygloom.sh
  4. 4Figma's S-1 Breakdown - by Dylan Reiderinfinite-runway.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Figma announced its third quarter 2026 financial results for after the U.S. market close on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, with a conference call scheduled for 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET [1][2]. Management's Q3 2026 revenue guidance is $373 million-$375 million, implying roughly 36% year-over-year growth and about 1% sequential growth from Q2's $370.1 million [3][4][5]. Full-year revenue guidance is $1.463 billion-$1.467 billion, while non-GAAP operating-income guidance remains $125 million-$135 million [3][4]. As of October 24, 2026, the Kalshi market prices Q3 2026 paid customers above $100,000 ARR at approximately 1,788 [6][7]. The market assigns an 87% probability above 1,750 and 39% probability above 1,800 [6][7]. This metric's official resolution occurs around the Q3 earnings release [6][7].
The principal bullish catalyst is enterprise expansion and AI monetization [3][4][8]. Figma reported 1,635 paid customers with at least $100,000 ARR in Q2 2026, representing a 46% year-over-year increase [9][10]. The sequential increase in these enterprise customers was 110, from 1,525 in Q1 2026 to 1,635 in Q2 2026 [9][11]. Over 80% of customers with at least $10,000 ARR consumed AI credits weekly in Q2, and more than half utilized the Figma agent weekly by July 31 [3][4][8]. Beta products, including Agent, Code Layers, and local-code Make, are not included in current guidance, presenting potential upside if monetized [3][4][8]. An actual result materially above 1,800 for paid customers above $100,000 ARR would likely be a positive surprise relative to current pricing [6][7][1].
Conversely, the principal bearish catalysts include decelerating growth, AI inference costs prior to monetization, potential gross-margin pressure, and competitive or disruption risk [3][4][8]. Q3 guidance excludes revenue from several beta products, even as Figma bears their inference costs [3][4][8]. The market reacted negatively to the modest sequential guidance following Q2's 48% revenue growth [3][4][8][12]. If the actual Q3 count for paid customers above $100,000 ARR falls below 1,750, it would likely be bearish compared to current market pricing [6][7][1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 12, 2027
  • Closes: March 12, 2027
Sources (12)
  1. 1Figma to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 4, 2026 | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
  2. 2https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/fig/earningstipranks.com
  3. 3Figma Is Paying For The Products It Has Not Started Charging For | Trefistrefis.com
  4. 4Figma Q2 Earnings Call Puts AI Monetization Broadening in Focus — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  5. 5Figma (NYSE:FIG) Beats Q2 Estimates but Shares Slide on Growth Deceleration Concerns | ChartMill.comchartmill.com
  6. 6Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  7. 7Figma (FIG) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
  8. 8Figma Q2 Earnings Call Highlights — Noticias de TradingViewes.tradingview.com
  9. 9Financials - Quarterly Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  10. 10fig-20260630sec.gov
  11. 11Figma Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Figma, Inc.investor.figma.com
  12. 12https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/figma-inc-nysefig-receives-consensus-rating-of-hold-from-brokerages-2026-08-10/marketbeat.com