Short Answer

The market expects Zoom will not exceed 4725 customers with over $100k in trailing 12-month revenue in Q3 2027, despite consistent historical growth and strategic AI initiatives. This outcome is priced at 0.0% by the market, though the model assigns a 20.0% probability.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's sharp repricing from 1.0% to over 90% was a direct reaction to Zoom's Q2 FY2027 financial report. The company disclosed it had 4,625 customers contributing over $100,000 in TTM revenue as of July 31, 2026. This number is just 50 customers below the 4,675 threshold required for this market to resolve to YES for the subsequent quarter.
With the Q2 result so close to the Q3 target, the market priced in a high probability of Zoom adding at least 50 net new customers in this high-value segment. The reported 8.2% year-over-year growth for this metric provides further evidence for this expected trajectory. It is notable that the price jump occurred on zero traded volume, suggesting the shift reflects an informational update by market makers or initial participants rather than a conviction move backed by significant capital flow.
  • Above 4675 customers is likely given 4,625 reported in Q2 FY2027.
  • Above 4700 customers aligns with Wall Street's $1.279 billion Q3 revenue forecast.
  • Exceeding 4750 customers appears less probable; large enterprise growth remains modest.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 4675 0.0% 20.0% Consistent growth in Zoom's >$100k customers is driven by AI enterprise solutions and stable Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance.
Above 4700 0.0% 20.0% Consistent growth in Zoom's >$100k customers is driven by AI enterprise solutions and stable Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance.
Above 4725 0.0% 20.0% Consistent growth in Zoom's >$100k customers is driven by AI enterprise solutions and stable Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance.
Above 4750 0.0% 20.0% Consistent growth in Zoom's >$100k customers is driven by AI enterprise solutions and stable Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance.
Above 4775 0.0% 15.0% Consistent growth in Zoom's >$100k customers is driven by AI enterprise solutions and stable Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance.

Current Context

Zoom reported 4,625 customers with over $100,000 in TTM revenue for Q2 FY2027. As of July 31, 2026, Zoom had 4,625 customers contributing more than $100,000 in trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue [^][^][^]. This represents an 8.2% year-over-year increase [^]. Management specified this customer segment grew by approximately 9% year over year within the Enterprise context [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. These high-value customers accounted for 32% of total revenue, a one-point increase year over year [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. This metric refers to a subset of Enterprise customers whose recognized trailing 12-month revenue exceeds $100,000 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
The Q3 FY2027 customer metrics are not yet disclosed by the company. As of September 1, 2026, Zoom Video Communications has not reported financial results for Q3 FY2027, and the provided evidence does not include the Q3 FY2027 disclosure for "customers with over $100,000 in trailing 12 months revenue" [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The Q3 FY2027 earnings report is anticipated on November 23, 2026 [^]. For Q2 FY2027, total revenue reached $1.277 billion, marking a 4.9% year-over-year increase, and the TTM net dollar expansion rate for Enterprise customers was 99% [^]. Zoom's Q3 FY2027 guidance projects total revenue between $1.275 billion and $1.280 billion [^].
Growth for Zoom has been influenced by advancements in AI-first products. Management cited growth driven by AI-first Customer Experience products, including a 256% year-over-year adoption increase for Zoom Virtual Agent. New AI features across collaboration and revenue orchestration platforms also contributed [^].

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 31, 2026: 90.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 91.0%

Outcome: Above 4675

What happened: The provided web research lacks information regarding social media activity, traditional news announcements, or market structure factors that could explain a 90.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market. Crucially, the specific date of the price movement is not stated, preventing any causal linkage between external events and the market's behavior. Without details on specific social media posts, news, or a definite spike date, it is impossible to identify a primary driver for the movement or determine social media's role. Therefore, based on the available data, social media's influence on this price movement cannot be assessed.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves YES if Zoom reports more than 4,725 customers with over $100,000 in trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue for Q3. It resolves NO if this number is 4,725 or fewer. The market closes on November 23 at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of March 23, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 4675 $0.93 $0.08 0%
Above 4700 $0.83 $0.21 0%
Above 4725 $0.50 $0.55 0%
Above 4750 $0.21 $0.88 0%
Above 4775 $0.06 $0.98 0%

Market Discussion

Zoom reported 4,625 customers contributing more than $100,000 in trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue as of July 31, 2026 (Q2 fiscal year 2027), representing an 8.20% year-over-year increase, which management highlighted as part of stronger enterprise momentum driven by product diversification and AI monetization [^]. Despite this positive metric, market sentiment following the August 25, 2026, Q2 earnings release focused on "lukewarm" forward guidance for Q3 fiscal year 2027 profit and concerns over rising AI-related expenses, leading to a decline in stock value [^].

5. Trader Trust Dashboard

6. What do historical reports from FY2025 through Q2 FY2027 reveal about the growth trajectory of Zoom's >$100k customer cohort?

Customers >$100k TTM (Q2 FY2027)4,625 [^][^][^][^]
Revenue ContributionApproximately 33% of total revenue [^][^][^]
YoY Growth (Q2 FY2027)8.2% [^][^][^]
Zoom's >$100k customer cohort is a vital revenue segment. This cohort, comprising customers generating over $100,000 in trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue, contributes approximately 33% of the company's total revenue [^][^][^]. The segment has demonstrated steady, measured growth, with the most recent reported count being 4,625 customers in Q2 FY2027 [^][^][^][^].
The >$100k customer cohort has grown consistently over two years. In Q3 FY2025, the cohort contained just under 4,000 customers, representing a 7% year-over-year increase [^]. The number subsequently rose to 4,088 by Q1 FY2026, expanded to 4,468 in Q2 FY2026, and reached 4,625 by Q3 FY2026 [^][^][^]. After a minor reduction to 4,534 in Q1 FY2027, the cohort once again reached 4,625 in Q2 FY2027, marking an 8.2% year-over-year increase for that specific period [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Overall, the segment grew from 4,274 in Q2 FY2026 to 4,625 by Q2 FY2027, generally maintaining year-over-year growth rates between 8% and 10% [^][^][^][^][^].
Management attributes growth to enterprise momentum and strategic expansion. This growth has been characterized by management as steady and measured, rather than a sharp reacceleration [^][^][^]. Key drivers for this expansion include continued enterprise momentum, an upmarket shift, large deals, channel leverage, and diversification into adjacent products such as Contact Center and Workvivo [^][^][^]. It was also noted that quarter-to-quarter movements in these metrics can be influenced by timing effects from coterminous contracts [^][^][^].

7. How do Wall Street analyst forecasts for Zoom's Q3 FY2027 revenue translate to expectations for the >$100k customer count?

Q3 FY2027 Revenue Consensus$1.279 billion (analyst consensus as of 2026-08-25) [^][^][^][^][^][^]
Zoom's Q3 FY2027 Revenue Guidance$1.275 billion to $1.280 billion [^][^][^][^][^]
Customers with >$100k TTM Revenue (Q2 FY2027)4,625 [^][^][^]
Wall Street analysts project Zoom's Q3 FY2027 revenue at $1.279 billion. This consensus, based on three analysts and updated on August 25, 2026, falls within a range of $1.277 billion to $1.298 billion [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This forecast closely aligns with Zoom's own Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance, which is set between $1.275 billion and $1.280 billion [^][^][^][^][^]. However, current analyst reports and forecasts examined do not include a separately disclosed numeric projection for the number of customers generating over $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Zoom's >$100k customer count grew steadily in recent quarters. As of Q2 FY2027, Zoom reported 4,625 customers with over $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue [^][^][^]. This customer segment exhibited an 8.2% year-over-year growth in both Q1 FY2027 and Q2 FY2027 [^][^][^]. While improved Enterprise revenue and total revenue in Q2 FY2027 coincided with an increase in this customer group, and management has linked its outlook to Enterprise expansion, analyst reports do not publicly provide a specific numerical forecast or an explicit derivation for the >$100k customer count based on their revenue expectations [^][^][^][^][^][^].

8. What is the anticipated impact of Zoom's AI product suite (e.g., Virtual Agent, AI Companion) on upselling enterprise contracts in Q3 FY2027?

Q2 FY2027 Enterprise revenue growth7.8% year-over-year (as of Q2 FY2027) [^][^][^]
Virtual Agent customer count increase256% year-over-year (as of Q2 FY2027) [^][^][^]
Customers with >$100k TTM revenue4,625 (as of Q2 FY2027) [^][^]
The research does not quantify the anticipated incremental impact of Zoom's AI product suite on enterprise contract upselling specifically in Q3 FY2027. While there is evidence linking AI adoption to enterprise momentum, the provided research does not offer a Q3 FY2027-specific upsell uplift estimate, nor does it isolate incremental upsell rates or changes in average revenue per account directly attributable to AI for that quarter [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Although Zoom issued Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance of $1.275B$1.280B and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $1.46$1.48, this guidance does not delineate the specific AI-driven upsell impact for the quarter [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Zoom's Q2 FY2027 enterprise revenue grew, significantly driven by AI. In Q2 FY2027, Zoom's Enterprise revenue increased 7.8% year-over-year, largely attributed to its 'AI-first system of action' strategy and the monetization of products such as Virtual Agent and AI Companion [^][^][^]. Virtual Agent adoption was a key factor in enterprise upselling, with its customer count growing by 256% year-over-year by the end of Q2 FY2027. Paid AI features were involved in nine of the top 10 Customer Experience deals during this period. Furthermore, Zoom reported 4,625 customers generating over $100,000 in trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue, indicating momentum in securing larger, multi-product platform deals. Licensed Workplace AI users also saw a 125% year-over-year increase, and paid customers for Zoom Revenue Accelerator grew by 41% year-over-year in Q2 FY2027 [^][^][^][^][^].

9. How does Zoom's growth rate in large enterprise deals compare to that of its main Unified Communications competitors, Microsoft Teams and Cisco Webex, in 2026?

Zoom Q3 FY26 customers > $100k revenue growth9.2% year-over-year [^][^]
Zoom Q2 FY27 enterprise revenue growth7.8% year-over-year [^]
Microsoft Teams UCaaS market share (2025)Approximately 22% of seats [^]
Zoom reported modest growth in large enterprise customer segments. The company experienced a 9.2% year-over-year increase in customers contributing over $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue during Q3 fiscal 2026 [^][^]. Furthermore, Zoom's enterprise revenue grew by 7.8% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2027, which concluded on July 31, 2026 [^].
Competitors show varying performance and maintain strong market positions. Cisco's Webex collaboration business, for instance, saw its strongest quarter in seven years during fiscal Q4 2026, with growth that outpaced Zoom in that period, driven by Webex, devices, and contact center operations [^]. Microsoft Teams remains the dominant global UCaaS market share leader, commanding approximately 22% of seats in 2025 [^]. However, the specific growth rate for Microsoft Teams' large enterprise deals in 2026 is not provided for direct comparison. Zoom continues to be a leader in web conferencing but faces aggressive competition from Microsoft Teams, which benefits from deep integration into the Microsoft 365 ecosystem, and Cisco Webex, which is regaining momentum by leveraging its strengths in contact center, devices, and regulated/on-premises deployments [^][^][^].

10. Which macroeconomic trends, such as corporate IT budget adjustments reported in H2 2026, pose the biggest risk or opportunity for Zoom's customer growth?

Worldwide IT Spending Growth (2026 Forecast)13.50% [^][^][^][^][^][^]
Communications Services Spending Growth (2026 Projected)4.80% [^][^][^][^][^][^]
Zoom Customers >$100k TTM Revenue (Q2 FY2027 YoY Growth)8.2% [^][^][^]
Macroeconomic shifts pose risks to Zoom's traditional communications growth, particularly for customers spending over $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue. Enterprise tech budgets are increasingly shifting from an "expansion mode" to a "proof/ROI mode," with incremental spending being reallocated towards AI, cloud, and security [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This necessitates clearer business cases for net-new growth and upsell opportunities within the over $100k cohort, often requiring consolidation paired with measurable productivity or AI outcomes, as there is less tolerance for waste or unproven return on investment [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While worldwide IT spending is forecast to grow 13.50% in 2026, communications services spending is projected to grow at a slower rate of 4.80%, in contrast to software at 15.10% and IT services at 9.00% [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This suggests Zoom's Unified Communications as a Service (UCaaS) and broader communications category may face heightened scrutiny, as Chief Information Officers recalibrate budgets for the AI era, prioritizing AI infrastructure and security if collaboration is perceived solely as a cost center [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Zoom can capitalize by integrating AI into its enterprise offerings to address these market changes. A significant opportunity arises if Zoom frames its enterprise value proposition around AI-enabled workflows, allowing it to capture a portion of the reallocated incremental budget towards AI initiatives [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Enterprises are actively consolidating communications spending around platforms that bundle AI capabilities natively, which presents a growth pathway for Zoom [^][^][^]. This strategy appears to be yielding positive results, as Zoom reported its enterprise segment revenue grew 7.8% year-over-year in Q2 FY2027, marking its fastest pace in three years, partly supported by AI product adoption [^][^]. Furthermore, the number of customers contributing over $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue increased by 8.2% year-over-year, reaching 4,625 as of Q2 FY2027 [^][^][^].

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Zoom's second fiscal quarter of 2027, which ended July 31, 2026, saw 4,625 customers contributing over $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue, an 8.2% year-over-year increase [^] [^] [^] [^] . Enterprise revenue grew 7.8% year over year, with total revenue up 4.9% and remaining performance obligations increasing 14% [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The net dollar expansion rate stood at 99% [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Bullish indicators also include AI product adoption, share buybacks, and the optionality from its Anthropic stake [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Despite strong Q2 results, market sentiment is mixed due to cautious analyst reactions to Zoom's Q3 revenue guidance [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . For Q3 fiscal year 2027, the company forecasts revenue between $1.275 billion and $1.280 billion, with adjusted EPS projected between $1.46 and $1.48 [^][^][^][^]. Full fiscal year 2027 revenue is anticipated to be between $5.085 billion and $5.095 billion, with non-GAAP diluted EPS between $6.08 and $6.12 [^][^][^]. Bearish factors also include softness in online revenue and persistent competition [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Zoom continues to expand its AI and customer-experience stack through product launches and integrations, such as Zoom Virtual Agent [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . The acquisition of Common Room added buyer-intelligence capabilities to its AI revenue platform [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Investors await the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 9, 2026, where Zoom is scheduled to participate [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 23, 2027
  • Closes: March 23, 2027

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Zoom's second fiscal quarter of 2027, which ended July 31, 2026, saw 4,625 customers contributing over $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue, an 8.2% year-over-year increase [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: Enterprise revenue grew 7.8% year over year, with total revenue up 4.9% and remaining performance obligations increasing 14% [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: The net dollar expansion rate stood at 99% [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: Bullish indicators also include AI product adoption, share buybacks, and the optionality from its Anthropic stake [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 5 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXZM-26AUGCUST100K-4675: NO (Aug 25, 2026)
  • KXZM-26AUGCUST100K-4650: NO (Aug 25, 2026)
  • KXZM-26AUGCUST100K-4625: NO (Aug 25, 2026)
  • KXZM-26AUGCUST100K-4600: YES (Aug 25, 2026)
  • KXZM-26AUGCUST100K-4575: YES (Aug 25, 2026)