Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds (20.0% vs 0.0%) than the market for Zoom customers with over $100k in TTM revenue in fiscal 2027 exceeding 4680. This is driven by reported Q1 FY2027 growth of 8.2% in this customer segment and a strategic focus on upselling existing large accounts and acquiring new ones.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action is defined by a single, sharp upward move. The contract opened at a price of 1.0% and immediately repriced to 95.0% on the same day, where it has since remained. This vertical jump suggests the market rapidly incorporated a key piece of fundamental data that dramatically altered the perceived probability of a "YES" resolution. There is no other significant price movement or trend visible in the limited history.
The price spike directly correlates with information from Zoom's first-quarter fiscal year 2027 financial results. The company reported 4,534 customers with over $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue as of April 30, 2026. This figure is just below the market's apparent resolution threshold of 4,680. Given that this customer segment grew 8.2% year-over-year and the fiscal year has three quarters remaining, the market priced in a very high likelihood that Zoom will add the requisite customers to exceed the threshold by year-end.
Despite the decisive price level, total traded volume is zero contracts. This indicates the 95.0% price is a reflection of the order book and initial liquidity provision rather than a consensus forged by active trading. The lack of volume means market conviction, while implied by the high price, remains untested by significant capital. The chart suggests a strong sentiment for a "YES" outcome based on publicly available corporate data, but the market itself is illiquid and has not yet seen meaningful participation.
  • Customers above 4680 likely, with 8.2% Q1 FY2027 segment growth.
  • Consistent quarter-over-quarter growth for this customer segment supports higher totals.
  • Fiscal 2027 strategy emphasizes upselling and acquiring new large accounts.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 4840 12.0% 20.0% Model higher by 8.0pp
Above 4880 8.0% 20.0% Model higher by 12.0pp
Above 4680 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 4720 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp
Above 4760 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp

Current Context

Zoom's largest customers showed growth and increased revenue contribution in Q1 FY2027. As of the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, ending April 30, 2026, Zoom reported 4,534 customers with over $100,000 in trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue [1][2]. This segment grew 8.2% year-over-year from 4,192 customers in the prior-year period [1][2]. These customers, described as a subset of Enterprise clients, accounted for 33% of Zoom's total revenue in Q1 FY2027, up from 31.9% in Q1 FY2026 [3][4][2].
Future disclosures for these key customer metrics are not yet available. Zoom is scheduled to release its second-quarter fiscal year 2027 financial results on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 [5]. Current evidence does not provide specific customer counts or revenue percentages for the >$100,000 TTM revenue cohort for fiscal 2027 Q2, Q3, or Q4 [2]. For the full fiscal year 2027, Zoom's guidance projects total revenue between $5.080 billion and $5.090 billion, with free cash flow expected to be between $1.700 billion and $1.740 billion [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Zoom Communications Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027investors.zoom.us
  2. 2Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (10-Q) - 2027-Q1, Page: 24Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  3. 3Zoom (ZM) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Zoom Revenue Reaches $1.24 bn as AI Companion Usage Surges 184% in Q1 FY2027 - InfotechLeadinfotechlead.com
  5. 5Zoom to Release Financial Results for the Second Quarter ofglobenewswire.com
  6. 6Documentsec.gov
  7. 7Zoom Communications Reports Financial Results for the First...finance.yahoo.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 07, 2026: 90.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 91.0%

Outcome: Above 4720

What happened: The primary driver of the 90.0 percentage point spike was likely a fundamental misinterpretation of the prediction market's outcome parameter. The "4720" in the outcome "Above 4720" refers to the stock ticker for Tex Year Industries Inc. (4720.TW) on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, not a numerical value related to Zoom's customer count [1][2][3]. This inherent ambiguity or flaw in the market's definition appears to have caused significant confusion and erratic trading, rather than an external catalyst. There is no evidence of social media activity, traditional news, or Zoom-specific announcements explaining such a price movement on August 7, 2026 [1]. Consequently, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Tex Year Industries Inc. (4720.TW) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Financeau.finance.yahoo.com
  2. 2德淵 (4720) - 股價走勢 - HiStock嗨投資理財社群histock.tw
  3. 34720 德淵 - 技術分析 - 日K線走勢圖及歷史股價查詢 - Goodinfo!台灣股市資訊網goodinfo.tw

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A 'YES' resolution occurs if the reported number of Zoom customers with over $100k in Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) revenue in fiscal year 2027 exceeds the specific numerical threshold of a given contract (e.g., above 4800); otherwise, it resolves to 'NO'. Trading for this market ends on February 24th at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of May 25, 2027. The specific data source for determining the final customer count is not detailed.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 4840 $0.22 $0.87 12%
Above 4880 $0.09 $0.98 8%
Above 4680 $0.99 $0.06 0%
Above 4720 $0.99 $0.09 0%
Above 4760 $0.82 $0.27 0%
Above 4800 $0.51 $0.58 0%

Market Discussion

As of the end of the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 (ended April 30, 2026), Zoom reported 4,534 customers contributing over $100,000 in trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue, marking an 8.2% year-over-year increase in this segment [1][2][3][4][5][6]. These larger customers accounted for 33% of Zoom's total revenue, and management highlighted this segment as a core component of its enterprise growth strategy, noting a 99% net dollar expansion rate for enterprise customers [1][2][4][5].

Sources (6)
  1. 1Zoom Communications Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027investors.zoom.us
  2. 2Zoom (ZM) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3Zoom Q1 earnings: $1.24B revenue, $1B buyback | ZM Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  4. 4Zoom Communications, Inc. (ZM) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call Transcript - May 21, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  5. 5Zoom Revenue Reaches $1.24 bn as AI Companion Usage Surges 184% in Q1 FY2027 - InfotechLeadinfotechlead.com
  6. 68-K: Zoom Communications Reports Financial Results for the First...news.moomoo.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 60 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score5Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score60Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 4840—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 4840—
No significant move (2d)

Price was stable over the last 2 days.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 4840100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
5Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 20.2c slippage (~115% of a 17.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 4840–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (2d)

Price was stable over the last 2 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 21, 2026

6. What is the forecasted trend for enterprise IT spending for the second half of 2026, and how could this macro environment impact Zoom's sales cycle?

Worldwide IT Spending Growth (2026)14.2% (reaching $6.37 trillion) [1][2][3]
U.S. B2B Tech Revenue Growth (H2 2026)6% year-over-year (vs. 10% in H1 2026) [1][2][3]
Zoom Customers ($100k+ TTM Revenue)4,534 (as of end of Q1 fiscal year 2027) [4][5][6]
Worldwide IT spending shows robust growth with shifting priorities. Global IT spending is projected to increase by 14.2% in 2026, reaching a total of $6.37 trillion, with this growth largely driven by investments in AI infrastructure, cloud platforms, and intelligent applications [1][2][3]. Concurrently, U.S. business-to-business (B2B) technology market revenue growth is expected to moderate to 6% year-over-year in the second half of 2026, a decrease from the 10% growth seen in the first half [1][2][3]. While cloud spending is anticipated to remain strong, there is an intensifying focus on ensuring that enterprise spending on AI yields a tangible return on investment [3][7][8].
Heightened ROI scrutiny could further prolong Zoom's sales cycle. This macroeconomic climate, characterized by a greater emphasis on demonstrating the return on investment for enterprise expenditures, is likely to further extend sales cycles for technology companies such as Zoom [9][7][10]. Zoom’s sales cycle has already experienced lengthening due to various macroeconomic uncertainties and a reprioritization of IT budgets towards digital transformation and artificial intelligence [9][11]. The ongoing requirement for enterprise IT spending to show clear ROI could influence purchasing decisions and potentially prolong sales cycles for Zoom, which reported 4,534 customers generating over $100,000 in trailing twelve-month revenue by the end of the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 [4][5][6][7][10].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Gartner Forecasts Worldwide IT Spending to Grow 14.2% in 2026, Totaling $6.37 Trilliongartner.com
  2. 2Gartner lifts 2026 global IT spending forecast to $6.37 trillion as AI infrastructure drives demandcxovoice.com
  3. 3U.S. B2B Technology Revenue Grows 10% in First Half of 2026; Growth Expected to Moderate in the Second Half, Reports Circanacircana.com
  4. 4Zoom Communications, Inc. Business Model & Cyborg Score 6/10 (2026) | AskCyborgaskcyborg.com
  5. 5Zoom Communications Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027investors.zoom.us
  6. 6Zoom Q1 earnings: $1.24B revenue, $1B buyback | ZM Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  7. 7AI Spending Spooks the Market | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com
  8. 8U.S. B2B Technology Revenue Grows 10% in First Half of 2026; Growth Expected to Moderate in the Second Half, Reports Circana – NY Newscastnynewscast.com
  9. 9Zoom Communications: Annual Report for Fiscal Year Ending January 31, 2026 (Form 10-K) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  10. 10More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accountsyoutube.com
  11. 11Weak Demand Drags Down Zoom’s (ZM) Fiscal 2026 Outlooktheglobeandmail.com

7. How does Zoom's year-over-year growth in large enterprise accounts compare to the enterprise segment performance of Microsoft Teams and Cisco Webex?

Zoom Large Enterprise Growth8.2% year-over-year [1][2][3][4]
Microsoft Productivity Revenue Growth14% year-over-year [5][6][7][8]
Cisco Collaboration Revenue Growth-1% year-over-year [9][10][11]
Zoom increased its large enterprise accounts year-over-year. The company reported an 8.2% year-over-year growth in large enterprise accounts for Q1 fiscal 2027, which concluded on April 30, 2026. This segment includes 4,534 customers each contributing over $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue, indicating continued expansion within its high-value customer base [1][2][3][4].
Microsoft demonstrated robust overall growth, but Teams-specific data is unavailable. The company showed strong overall financial performance, with its Productivity and Business Processes revenue increasing by 14% year-over-year for the quarter ending June 30, 2026 (FY26 Q4). Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue also experienced a 14% year-over-year growth during the same period [5][6][7][8]. However, specific revenue growth for Microsoft Teams is not separately reported in their financial disclosures [5][6][7][8].
Cisco's collaboration segment, including Webex, experienced a revenue decline. The company's Collaboration segment saw a 1% year-over-year decline in revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, ending April 25, 2026 [9][10][11]. This downturn was primarily attributed to reductions in Webex, though growth in devices provided a partial offset to these losses [9][10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1[PDF] Zoom Communications Reports Financial Results for the First...investors.zoom.us
  2. 2Zoom (ZM) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  3. 3ZM Q1 FY2027 earnings callfinance.biggo.com
  4. 4Zoom Revenue Reaches $1.24 bn as AI Companion Usage Surges 184% in Q1 FY2027 - InfotechLeadinfotechlead.com
  5. 5Microsoft Cloud and AI strength fuels fourth quarter results - Sourcenews.microsoft.com
  6. 6FY26 Q4 - Metrics - Investor Relations - Microsoftmicrosoft.com
  7. 7FY26 Q4 - Press Releases - Investor Relations - Microsoftmicrosoft.com
  8. 8EX-99.1sec.gov
  9. 9Cisco Systems Inc. - CISCO REPORTS THIRD QUARTER EARNINGSinvestor.cisco.com
  10. 10Earnings Call Transcript for Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) | Earnings Whispersbeta.earningswhispers.com
  11. 11Cisco Systems Inc Earnings - Analysis & Highlights for Q3 2026alpha-sense.com

8. What has been the quarter-over-quarter growth rate for Zoom's >$100k customer count from fiscal 2024 through Q1 fiscal 2027?

Q-o-Q Growth Rate Range (FY24-Q1 FY27)Approximately 1.29% to 2.57% [1]
Highest Q-o-Q Growth RateApproximately 2.57% (Q2 FY24) [1]
Lowest Q-o-Q Growth RateApproximately 1.29% (Q2 FY25) [1]
Zoom's >$100k customer count consistently grew quarter-over-quarter. The company's customer segment generating over $100,000 in trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue demonstrated quarter-over-quarter growth during the period from fiscal year 2024 through Q1 fiscal year 2027 [1]. The growth rate for these high-value customers spanned approximately 1.29% to 2.57%, reflecting continuous, albeit varying, expansion within this crucial demographic [1].
Growth rates fluctuated significantly across specific quarters. Throughout the observed period, the highest quarter-over-quarter growth rate recorded was approximately 2.57% in Q2 FY24, with the lowest reaching around 1.29% in Q2 FY25 [1]. Other quarterly rates included 1.61% for Q3 FY24, 2.12% for Q4 FY24, 2.33% for Q4 FY25, and 2.41% for Q4 FY26. These specific figures illustrate an ongoing but uneven growth trajectory for Zoom's key customers [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1https://investors.zoom.us/static-files/fcac096f-7e3d-489f-8a1c-a4b483599ab9investors.zoom.us

9. Based on Zoom's recent earnings calls, what is the company's strategy for upselling existing customers versus acquiring new large accounts in fiscal 2027?

Overall StrategyTwo-pronged: upselling existing customers and acquiring new large accounts [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Upselling FocusExpanding wallet share with Phone, Contact Center, and AI products [1][2][3][4][5][6]
New Account AcquisitionEnterprise-led, channel-driven motion displacing legacy CCaaS vendors [7][8][1][2][3][4][5][6]
Zoom’s fiscal 2027 strategy targets growth in existing and new customers. Based on recent earnings calls, Zoom’s strategy for fiscal 2027 involves a dual focus on expanding existing customer relationships and acquiring new large accounts [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This approach centers on a unified platform expansion, heavily relying on Contact Center, AI, and comprehensive bundled platform deals [1][2][3][4][5][6]. To upsell existing large customers, Zoom aims to increase their wallet share by migrating them from its Meetings product to offerings such as Phone, Contact Center, and AI [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Monetization efforts include Zoom Workplace, AI Companion, and Zoom Virtual Agent, with growth anticipated from longer-term, larger deals primarily driven by Contact Center and AI solutions [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Acquiring new large accounts utilizes an enterprise-led, channel strategy. For the acquisition of new large accounts, Zoom employs an enterprise-led, channel-driven strategy [7][8][1][2][3][4][5][6]. A key objective is displacing legacy Contact Center as a Service (CCaaS) vendors in the market [7][8][1][2][3][4][5][6]. This strategy involves bundling Unified Communications (UC), Contact Center, and AI offerings, with channel partners playing a crucial role in securing significant deals and winning new Contact Center business [7][8][1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1ZM_Q12027, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  2. 2ZM_Q12027, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  3. 3ZM_Q12027, Page: 7Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  4. 4ZM_Q12027, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  5. 5ZM_Q12027, Page: 6Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  6. 6ZM_Q12027, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  7. 7Zoom (ZM) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  8. 8Zoom Communications, Inc. (ZM) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call Transcript - May 21, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai

10. How will the enterprise adoption rate of new products like Zoom Phone and AI Companion affect the growth of Zoom's >$100k customer base in fiscal 2027?

Customers > $100k TTM Revenue4,534 (Q1 FY27) [1][2][3]
Enterprise Net Dollar Expansion Rate99% (Q1 FY27) [1][2][3][4]
AI Companion Paid MAUs Growth184% YoY (Q1 FY27) [1][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]
Zoom is growing its high-value customer segment, driven by strong retention. In Q1 fiscal year 2027 (ended April 30, 2026), the company reported 4,534 customers generating over $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue, an 8.2% year-over-year increase [1][2][3]. This expansion is further supported by an improved trailing 12-month net dollar expansion rate for Enterprise customers, which rose to 99% in Q1 FY27 from 98% in the prior fiscal year, indicating robust retention and increased platform adoption among its larger accounts [1][2][3][4].
Zoom Phone significantly drives enterprise growth through product bundling. The adoption of new products like Zoom Phone is positively impacting enterprise expansion, with Zoom Phone identified as a key contributor. Notably, 15 out of the top 20 customer wins in Q1 FY27 included either Zoom Workplace or Zoom Phone [13][5][6]. This strategic bundling approach helps secure larger enterprise deals, likely pushing more accounts above the $100,000 revenue threshold. Furthermore, Zoom Phone's annual recurring revenue (ARR) experienced mid-teens growth in Q1 FY27 [13][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12].
AI Companion boosts enterprise expansion and platform value for existing accounts. The product is contributing to enterprise growth, with its paid monthly active users (MAUs) increasing by 184% year-over-year in Q1 FY27 [1][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. While specific conversion rates from AI usage to new customers exceeding the $100,000 revenue mark are not disclosed, its rapid uptake and new monetization features, such as ZVA Receptionist for Zoom Phone, enhance the platform's overall value and help consolidate enterprise deals, primarily facilitating expansion within existing enterprise accounts [1][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12].
Sources (13)
  1. 1[PDF] Zoom Communications Reports Financial Results for the First...investors.zoom.us
  2. 2Zoom Communications Reports Financial Results for the Firstglobenewswire.com
  3. 3Zoom Q1 earnings: $1.24B revenue, $1B buyback | ZM Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  4. 4Zoom (ZM) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  5. 5Zoom (ZM) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6Zoom Communications, Inc. (ZM) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call Transcript - May 21, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
  7. 7ZM_Q12027, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  8. 8ZM_Q42026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  9. 9ZM_Q12027, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  10. 10ZM_Q12027, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  11. 11ZM_Q12027, Page: 6Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  12. 12ZM_Q12027, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  13. 13[PDF] Zoom Q1 FY27 Earnings Prepared Remarksinvestors.zoom.us

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Zoom ended the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 (April 30, 2026) with 4,534 customers contributing over $100,000 in trailing 12-month revenue, an 8.2% year-over-year increase [1][2]. The Enterprise business is a key growth catalyst [3][2][4][5], with these customers generating 33% of total revenue [3][2][4][5].
For the full fiscal year 2027, Zoom has raised its guidance. Revenue is projected to be between $5.08 billion and $5.09 billion, representing 4.4% growth at the midpoint, with non-GAAP diluted EPS between $5.96 and $6.00 [1][3][6][5]. Key growth drivers include the expansion of the Enterprise business, the adoption of AI Companion, Zoom Virtual Agent, and other "conversation-centric" workflow integrations [3][2][4][5]. Additionally, an extra $1.0 billion Class A share repurchase authorization was announced in Q1 FY2027, increasing the total remaining capacity to $1.6 billion [2][5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 25, 2027
  • Closes: May 25, 2027
Sources (6)
  1. 1Zoom Communications Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027investors.zoom.us
  2. 2Zoom Q1 earnings: $1.24B revenue, $1B buyback | ZM Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  3. 3Zoom (ZM) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Zoom Communications, Inc. 1Q 2027: Revenue $1.24B, EPS $1.42tradingview.com
  5. 5Zoom Stock Q1 2027 Earnings Review: $1.24B Revenue Beat and a $1B Buyback Raise the Stakes | TIKR.comtikr.com
  6. 6Zoom Communications, Inc. (ZM) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call Transcript - May 21, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai