Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Snowflake to have above 850 customers with trailing 12-month revenue exceeding $1m in fiscal 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, which speculates on whether Snowflake will have more than 850 customers with trailing 12-month revenue over $1 million by the end of fiscal 2027, saw its price move sharply from 0.0% to 95.0%. The entire price action occurred on a single day, August 5, 2026, indicating an immediate repricing based on newly integrated information rather than a gradual trend developed through trading activity. The jump to 95.0% reflects a near-certainty assessment of the outcome.
The catalyst for this repricing appears to be Snowflake's Q1 FY27 financial results. The company reported having 779 customers in this high-value cohort as of April 30, 2026, the end of its first quarter. This figure places Snowflake just 71 customers short of the 850-customer threshold with three quarters remaining in the fiscal year. Concurrent with this customer data, Snowflake raised its full-year product revenue forecast to $5.84 billion, implying expectations of continued strong growth. The market price suggests participants believe the company's existing momentum makes achieving the target a formality.
Total traded volume is zero contracts. This indicates the current price is a reflection of initial market-maker pricing or a very small number of initial positions, not a consensus formed through active trading. The lack of volume means there is no established support or resistance, and the price demonstrates low liquidity and conviction from a broad base of participants. Despite the low volume, the 95.0% price level signals extremely bullish sentiment on this specific key performance indicator, directly tied to the strong Q1 FY27 report.
  • AI adoption appears likely to expand the >$1M customer segment.
  • AWS partnership and strong Q1 performance may boost customer growth.
  • Consumption model volatility poses macroeconomic risks to expansion.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 950 43.0% 0.2% Market higher by 42.8pp
Above 850 0.0% 0.9% Model higher by 0.9pp
Above 860 0.0% 0.8% Model higher by 0.8pp
Above 870 0.0% 0.7% Model higher by 0.7pp
Above 880 0.0% 0.7% Model higher by 0.7pp

Current Context

Snowflake reported 779 customers exceeding $1 million in Q1 FY27. As of the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended April 30, 2026, Snowflake had 779 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million [1][2][3]. Concurrently, Snowflake raised its fiscal 2027 annual product revenue guidance to $5.84 billion, representing 31% year-over-year growth [4][3][5]. The company also updated its non-GAAP operating margin guidance to 13.50% for the same fiscal year [4][3][5].
AI innovation and cloud partnerships drive Snowflake's growth outlook. Accelerating AI-driven workloads, new product momentum such as Cortex Code, and a significant $6 billion multi-year cloud infrastructure agreement with AWS are key business drivers [3][5][6]. Analyst sentiment remains predominantly bullish, with a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating [7][8][9]. This positive outlook is supported by expectations that AI agent adoption will continue to fuel platform consumption [7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027 | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  3. 3Snowflake Q1 FY 2027: AI Products Drive Faster Consumption Growth - Futurumfuturumgroup.com
  4. 4Snowflake raises annual product revenue forecast, strikes $6 billion AWS deal | Reutersreuters.com
  5. 5AI Demand Boosts Snowflake’s Sales Forecast, Stock Jumps in Late Trading - Bloombergbloomberg.com
  6. 6Snowflake Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Breakout Quarter; Post-Earnings Rally Pricing in Potential | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  7. 7Snowflake Stock Surges: What's Driving the Rebound? - Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) - Benzingabenzinga.com
  8. 8BTIG Research Forecasts Strong Price Appreciation for Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) Stock - American Market Newsamericanbankingnews.com
  9. 9Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) Stock Price Expected to Rise, BTIG Research Analyst Says - Markets Dailythemarketsdaily.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves YES if Snowflake has above 950 customers with trailing 12-month revenue exceeding $1 million in fiscal year 2027. It resolves NO if this number is 950 or below. Trading for this market ends on February 25 at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of May 26, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 950 $0.51 $0.57 43%
Above 850 $1.00 $0.06 0%
Above 860 $1.00 $0.06 0%
Above 870 $1.00 $0.06 0%
Above 880 $1.00 $0.06 0%
Above 890 $1.00 $0.07 0%
Above 900 $1.00 $0.08 0%
Above 910 $0.98 $0.11 0%
Above 920 $0.92 $0.17 0%
Above 930 $0.82 $0.27 0%
Above 940 $0.68 $0.41 0%
Above 960 $0.37 $0.72 0%
Above 970 $0.24 $0.85 0%

Market Discussion

As of Q1 fiscal 2027 (ended April 30, 2026), Snowflake reported 779 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue exceeding $1 million, an increase of 46 from the end of fiscal 2026 [1][2][3][4]. This growth, coupled with a raised full-year product revenue guidance for fiscal 2027 to $5.84 billion, is largely attributed to strong AI-driven consumption [4][5][6][7]. Market sentiment is optimistic that AI product adoption will continue to accelerate core consumption, making the number of $1M+ customers a key metric for sustained long-term growth [7][8].

Sources (8)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027 | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  3. 3SNOW 10-Q Quarterly Report Q1 FY2027 — Revenue, Net Income, EPSanalystlens.com
  4. 4SNOW Q1 FY2027 earnings callfinance.biggo.com
  5. 5Snowflake raises annual product revenue forecast, strikes $6 billion AWS deal | Reutersreuters.com
  6. 6Snowflake Inc. Raises Earnings Guidance for the Full-Year of Fiscal 2027 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  7. 7Snowflake Stock After Q1 FY2027 Earnings — AI Re-Rating or Valuation Stretch? | Stock Notestock-note.com
  8. 8Snowflake Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Breakout Quarter; Post-Earnings Rally Pricing in Potential | Morningstarmorningstar.com

4. How might the adoption of Snowflake's new AI products and its expanded AWS partnership influence the growth rate of its >$1 million customer segment in fiscal 2027?

Customers >$1M (Q1 FY27)779 (Q1 fiscal 2027) [1][2]
New >$1M Customers (Q1 FY27)46 (during the quarter) [1][2]
FY27 Product Revenue Guidance$5.84 billion (31% year-over-year growth) [3][2]
Snowflake's AI products and AWS partnership are expected to boost high-value customers. Snowflake's new AI products and an expanded partnership with AWS are anticipated to positively influence the growth rate of its customer segment generating over $1 million in product revenue during fiscal 2027. These initiatives are projected to drive platform consumption and accelerate customer spending [1][3][4][2]. Management identifies its AI-focused product suite, which includes Cortex Code and Snowflake Intelligence, as a key factor for bringing more customers into this higher revenue tier, contributing to the raised fiscal 2027 revenue guidance [1][3][4][2]. Snowflake has raised its full-year fiscal 2027 product revenue guidance to $5.84 billion, representing 31% year-over-year growth, citing strong momentum in both core data platform business and new AI-driven product adoption [3][2].
Snowflake's AWS partnership aims to accelerate enterprise AI adoption and customer growth. As of the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Snowflake reported 779 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million, with 46 customers crossing this threshold during the quarter [1][2]. The expanded 5-year, $6 billion agreement with AWS is designed to accelerate enterprise AI adoption by leveraging Graviton compute and AI services [1][3][5]. AWS is also increasing its go-to-market investment to facilitate enterprise migration and AI scaling, which further supports this growth [1][3][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1$1.33 billion of first-quarter product revenuesec.gov
  2. 2Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027 | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  3. 3Snowflake (SNOW) Q1 2027 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Snowflake Q1 FY 2027: AI Products Drive Faster Consumption Growth - Futurumfuturumgroup.com
  5. 5Snowflake Expands AWS Collaboration with $6B Commitment to Accelerate Enterprise Agentic AI Adoption - US Press Centerpress.aboutamazon.com

5. What are the consensus Wall Street analyst forecasts for Snowflake's >$1 million customer count for fiscal 2027, and how do they align with the company's historical growth rates?

Analyst Consensus Q1 FY27 >$1M CustomersApproximately 758 [1][2]
Reported Q1 FY27 >$1M Customers779 [2][3][4]
Q1 FY27 >$1M Customer YoY Growth29% [2][3][4]
Analyst consensus for total fiscal 2027 $1M+ customers remains unspecified. While available research does not specify the Wall Street analyst consensus forecast for Snowflake's total fiscal 2027 customer count exceeding $1 million, the company reported 779 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue above this threshold for Q1 fiscal 2027. This figure surpassed the consensus estimate of approximately 758 customers for the same period [1][2].
Snowflake consistently demonstrates strong growth in high-value customer segments. As of Q1 fiscal 2027, ending April 30, 2026, these 779 customers represent a significant 29% year-over-year growth in this high-value category [2][3][4]. This expansion aligns with a consistent historical trend, as the number of customers spending over $1 million annually grew from 580 at the end of fiscal 2025, to 733 by the end of fiscal 2026, and further to 779 in Q1 of fiscal 2027 [1][2][5][6]. This sustained growth underscores increasing enterprise adoption of Snowflake, reinforced by the company's raised product revenue growth guidance of 31% for fiscal 2027 [2][3][7][4][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold SNOW Stock Before Q1...theglobeandmail.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3SNOW 10-Q Quarterly Report Q1 FY2027 — Revenue, Net Income, EPSanalystlens.com
  4. 4Snowflake Q1 FY 2027: AI Products Drive Faster Consumption Growth - Futurumfuturumgroup.com
  5. 5Documentsec.gov
  6. 6Documentsec.gov
  7. 7Snowflake raises annual product revenue forecast, strikes $6 billion AWS deal | Reutersreuters.com
  8. 8Snowflake Q1 2027 earnings beat forecasts, stock dipsinvesting.com

6. How does Snowflake's growth rate in its >$1 million customer cohort compare to that of its chief rival, Databricks, over the past four quarters?

Snowflake $1M+ Customer Growth29% year-over-year [1][2][3]
Databricks $1M+ Customersover 800 (as of February 2026) [4]
Databricks Net Revenue Retention Rateover 140% [5][6][7][8]
Snowflake's million-dollar customer cohort grew steadily at 29%. Snowflake achieved a 29% year-over-year growth rate in its customer cohort generating over $1 million in trailing 12-month product revenue. This growth rate remained consistent across its recent quarterly filings, specifically Q1 FY2027, Q3 FY2026, and Q2 FY2026 [1][2][3]. In contrast, Databricks has demonstrated a substantially faster growth trajectory for its customer segment exceeding $1 million [4].
Databricks shows significantly faster growth in its high-value customer base. As of February 2026, Databricks reported more than 800 customers consuming over $1 million in annual revenue run-rate [4]. The company's overall revenue expanded by over 65% year-over-year [4][5][9]. Furthermore, Databricks maintains a net revenue retention rate exceeding 140%, which is higher than Snowflake's approximate range of 125-131% [5][6][7][8]. This superior retention rate helps drive Databricks' quicker expansion within its key customer cohorts, even when considering similar absolute customer counts [5][6][7][8].
Sources (9)
  1. 1$1.33 billion of first-quarter product revenuesec.gov
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3Documentsec.gov
  4. 4Databricks Grows >65% YoY, Surpasses $5.4 Billion...databricks.com
  5. 5Databricks at $5.4B, Growing 65%. Is It the Most Unstoppable Company in B2B Right Now? | SaaStrAIsaastr.com
  6. 6Snowflake vs Databricks: The Data Platform Waranalysis-atlas.com
  7. 7Snowflake vs Databricks: $36K vs $28K/Year [2026]tech-insider.org
  8. 8Databricks at $4.8B ARR | Sacrasacra.com
  9. 9Databricks Grows >65% YoY, Surpasses $5.4 Billion Revenue Run-Rate, Doubles Down on Lakebase and Genieprnewswire.com

7. What is the official reporting schedule and which SEC filings will contain Snowflake's definitive count of >$1 million customers for the remaining quarters of fiscal 2027?

Fiscal 2027 Q2 ReportingSEC Form 10-Q [1][2][3][4][5]
Fiscal 2027 Q3 ReportingSEC Form 10-Q [1][2][3][4][5]
Fiscal 2027 Q4 ReportingSEC Form 10-K [1][2][3][4][5]
Snowflake reports key customer metrics throughout its fiscal year. The company includes the definitive count of customers with over $1 million in trailing 12-month product revenue as a key business metric within its quarterly earnings press releases and subsequent SEC filings [1][2][3][4][5]. Snowflake's fiscal year concludes on January 31. For fiscal year 2027, the quarters are defined as: Q1, ending April 30, 2026; Q2, ending July 31, 2026; Q3, ending October 31, 2026; and Q4, ending January 31, 2027 [6][7][8][9].
Specific SEC filings contain the definitive customer counts. For the remaining quarters of fiscal year 2027, the definitive customer count for Q2 and Q3 will be disclosed in the company's SEC Forms 10-Q [1][2][3][4][5]. The definitive count for fiscal 2027 Q4, which encompasses the entire fiscal year, will be presented in the annual SEC Form 10-K [1][2][3][4][5]. Snowflake typically releases these earnings results and associated filings in the months following the close of each respective fiscal quarter [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3Documentsec.gov
  4. 4Documentsec.gov
  5. 5Documentsec.gov
  6. 6Snowflake - Investor Relationsinvestors.snowflake.com
  7. 7Snowflake - Financials - Quarterly Resultsinvestors.snowflake.com
  8. 8Company Events Publications and Financial Calendar | SNOWmarketscreener.com
  9. 9Documentsec.gov

8. Based on recent enterprise spending surveys and cloud optimization trends, what are the primary macroeconomic risks to Snowflake's expansion of its >$1 million customer base through fiscal 2027?

U.S. Economic Growth Forecast1.5% for 2026 [1][2][3]
Snowflake Revenue Model RiskSensitive to customer optimization, budget cuts, and macroeconomic slowdowns [4][5][6][7][8]
Inflationary PressuresPersistent, especially in energy costs due to geopolitical conflicts [2][3]
Snowflake's expansion faces significant macroeconomic risks due to its revenue model. The primary concern is the inherent volatility of its consumption-based revenue model, which makes revenue highly sensitive to customer optimization efforts, budget rationalization, and broader macroeconomic slowdowns [4][5][6][7][8]. Furthermore, enterprise spending is expected to contend with slowing U.S. economic growth, persistent inflationary pressures, and a softening labor market through fiscal 2027 [1][2][3][9].
Specific economic forecasts highlight challenges for enterprise technology investments. U.S. economic growth is projected at 1.5% for 2026, a situation potentially worsened by trade policy uncertainties and tariff-driven cost increases [1][2][3]. Persistent inflation, particularly in energy costs driven by ongoing geopolitical conflicts, compels businesses and consumers to reduce discretionary spending, creating a challenging environment for enterprise technology investments [2][3]. Additionally, a softening labor market and concerns about a potential recession are fostering increased corporate caution in hiring and overall operational expenditures, which could hinder the growth of high-value enterprise cloud contracts [3][9]. These macroeconomic conditions amplify the impact on Snowflake's consumption-based model, allowing customers to reduce usage through query optimization, shorter data retention, or workload shifts [4][5][6][7][8].
Additional market and competitive factors also threaten Snowflake's growth trajectory. Other risks include supply chain and trade policy volatility [4][5][6][10], potential margin pressure from AI-heavy workloads [4][5][6][11], and intense competition from major cloud providers [4][5][6]. There is also a risk that high market expectations for AI-driven growth may not be met, potentially leading to multiple compression [4][5][6][10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1US growth likely to slow to 1.6% this year, hobbled by Trump's trade wars, OECD says | The Associated Pressap.org
  2. 2America In Focus: Hotter inflation doesn't stop consumers, investors | The Associated Pressap.org
  3. 3Economic impacts in monetary policy | The Associated Pressap.org
  4. 4Snowflake Stock After Q1 FY2027 Earnings — AI Re-Rating or Valuation Stretch? | Stock Notestock-note.com
  5. 5Snowflake (SNOW)trefis.com
  6. 6Snowflake (SNOW): AI Data Cloud Growth at a Premium | TickerSparktickerspark.ai
  7. 7How Snowflake Makes Money: Consumption Pricing, NRR, and the Path to Profitability - PitchGradepitchgrade.com
  8. 8snow-20260131sec.gov
  9. 9US hiring fell sharply in July, an unexpected setback for the economy stoking recession fears | The Associated Pressap.org
  10. 10Trump’s planned 100% computer chip tariff sparks confusion among businesses and trading partners | The Associated Pressap.org
  11. 11Snowflake Q1 FY 2027: AI Products Drive Faster Consumption Growth - Futurumfuturumgroup.com

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Aggressive AI adoption by customers serves as a primary growth driver for Snowflake's fiscal 2027 outlook [1][2][3]. The company now projects fiscal 2027 product revenue to reach $5.84 billion, an increase from its previous guidance of $5.66 billion, representing 31% year-over-year growth [4][1][2]. This acceleration aligns with Q1 fiscal 2027 results, where quarterly revenue hit $1.39 billion, up 33% year-over-year [4][5][2].
Additional catalysts include a new $6 billion multi-year cloud infrastructure agreement with AWS [1][2][3]. Snowflake also expanded partnerships, notably with organizations like OpenAI [1][2][3]. As of April 30, 2026, the company recorded 779 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue exceeding $1 million [4][6][5]. A net revenue retention rate of 126% and $9.21 billion in remaining performance obligations, a 38% year-over-year increase, further support this trajectory [4][5][2].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 26, 2027
  • Closes: May 26, 2027
Sources (6)
  1. 1Snowflake raises annual product revenue forecast, strikes $6 billion AWS deal | Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2Snowflake Q1 FY 2027: AI Products Drive Faster Consumption Growth - Futurumfuturumgroup.com
  3. 3AI Demand Boosts Snowflake’s Sales Forecast, Stock Jumps in Late Trading - Bloombergbloomberg.com
  4. 4Documentsec.gov
  5. 5SNOW 10-Q Quarterly Report Q1 FY2027 — Revenue, Net Income, EPSanalystlens.com
  6. 6Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027 | Morningstarmorningstar.com