Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027 to be Above 835 (20.0% model vs 0.0% market), driven by consistent customer growth and projected expansion from AI product adoption.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market, which resolves based on whether Snowflake's count of customers with over $1 million in trailing 12-month revenue exceeds 835 in Q3 2027, saw its price jump from 0.0% to 91.0% on its first day of activity. This immediate and sharp upward move appears to be a direct reaction to Snowflake's Q1 fiscal 2027 financial results. The company reported having 779 customers in this category as of April 30, 2026. The market's high price implies a strong expectation that Snowflake will add at least 56 net new customers of this size over the subsequent two fiscal quarters.
The price action is not supported by any trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the 91.0% level represents an untested offer price rather than a consensus view established through transactions. The absence of volume suggests a lack of liquidity and market participation. Consequently, no meaningful support or resistance levels have been formed.
The current 91.0% price indicates a theoretical sentiment that Snowflake is highly likely to meet the contract's condition. However, this sentiment is based on a single market participant's pricing and has not been confirmed by opposing capital. The lack of trading activity means conviction behind this price is unproven.
- Snowflake's $1M+ customers reached 779 in Q1 FY2027, growing 6.28%.
- Continued expansion is projected, driven by AI product adoption.
- Historical trends suggest over 855 customers by Q3 FY2027.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 860 | 75.0% | 20.0% | Market higher by 55.0pp |
| Above 880 | 19.0% | 20.0% | Model higher by 1.0pp |
| Above 875 | 35.0% | 20.0% | Market higher by 15.0pp |
| Above 855 | 77.0% | 20.0% | Market higher by 57.0pp |
| Above 835 | 0.0% | 20.0% | Model higher by 20.0pp |
Current Context
Snowflake reported strong customer growth in Q1 fiscal 2027. As of the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, which ended April 30, 2026, Snowflake had 779 customers generating over $1 million in trailing 12-month product revenue [1][2][3]. Additionally, 64 customers exceeded $10 million in trailing 12-month product revenue during this period [1][3].
Customer growth accelerated from the prior fiscal quarter. For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, ended October 31, 2025, the company had reported 688 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million [4][5][6]. Snowflake's total revenue for Q1 fiscal 2027 reached $1.39 billion, marking a 33% year-over-year increase, with a net revenue retention rate of 126% [1][3].
Sources (6)
- 1Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027markets.financialcontent.com
- 2Documentsec.gov
- 3Snowflake (SNOW) Q1 2027 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the Third Quarter of Fiscal 2026businesswire.com
- 5Documentsec.gov
- 6Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the Third Quarter...snowflake.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 05, 2026: 88.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 88.0%
Outcome: Above 840
What happened: The provided web research does not contain any information about social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors that would explain an 88.0 percentage point spike in this specific prediction market on August 05, 2026. The movement described appears to be related to specific prediction market or algorithmic trading data point tracking, rather than a publicly reported corporate financial catalyst or social media narrative concerning Snowflake's large customer count [1][2][3][4]. Snowflake's most recent reported figure was 779 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million in Q1 fiscal 2027 (reported May 2026) [5]. Based on the available information, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
Sources (5)
- 1Will Diesel Price on August 9, 2026 be above $5.20?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 2Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier — 0% | Orrery market check | Orreryorrery.me
- 3Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $169 Week of July 27 2026? — 45% | Orrery market check | Orreryorrery.me
- 4Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) Return on equity — Quarterly & Annualopencapital.sh
- 5Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027 | Morningstarmorningstar.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market "Above 865" resolves to YES if the number of Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue greater than $1 million in Q3 is above 865, and resolves to NO if this number is 865 or less. Trading concludes on December 2 at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of March 25, 2027. Settlement will be based on the reported count of Snowflake customers meeting these criteria, with no special conditions mentioned in the provided information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 855 | $1.00 | $1.00 | 77% |
| Above 860 | $0.99 | $1.00 | 75% |
| Above 875 | $0.28 | $1.00 | 35% |
| Above 880 | $0.99 | $1.00 | 19% |
| Above 835 | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 840 | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 845 | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 850 | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 865 | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 870 | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 885 | $1.00 | $0.94 | 0% |
| Above 890 | $1.00 | $0.98 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Snowflake reported 688 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue exceeding $1 million as of Q3 Fiscal 2026 (ended October 31, 2025) [1][2]. Other disclosures, however, indicated 772 such customers for FY2026 Q3, an increase from 654 in FY2026 Q2, with the figure further rising to 779 by Q1 Fiscal 2027 [3][4][5][6][7]. Market participants frequently emphasize the growth of this customer segment as a key indicator of enterprise adoption, platform stickiness, and effective expansion [8].
Sources (8)
- 1Documentsec.gov
- 2Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the Third Quarter...snowflake.com
- 3SNOW_Q32026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 4SNOW_Q32025, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 5SNOW_Q22025, Page: 2Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 6Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027 | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 7Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027markets.financialcontent.com
- 8Snowflake, Inc. (SNOW)s26.q4cdn.com
5. Trust Index
Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release
Integrity risk· Information exposure
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score43High Risk
Trust score68Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. What is the Wall Street analyst consensus for Snowflake's key customer metrics in Q3 FY2027, and what underlying assumptions are driving these forecasts?
| Customers with >$1M TTM revenue (Q1 FY2027) | 779 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Wall Street consensus total revenue (Q3 FY2027) | ~$1.57 billion [4][2][3] |
| Key drivers of >$1M customer growth | Core platform consumption, AI product adoption (Snowflake Intelligence, Cortex Code), Forbes Global 2000 expansion [2][3] |
Wall Street analysts have not provided a consensus for Snowflake's Q3 FY2027 customers generating over $1 million in trailing 12-month product revenue. As of April 30, 2026, which marked the conclusion of Q1 FY2027, Snowflake reported 779 such customers [1][2][3]. The specific consensus forecast for this customer segment by October 31, 2026 (Q3 FY2027 end) is not available in the research findings.
Analysts forecast $1.57 billion in total revenue for Snowflake's Q3 FY2027. The Wall Street analyst consensus for Snowflake's total revenue for Q3 FY2027, ending October 31, 2026, is approximately $1.57 billion [4][2][3]. This projection is primarily supported by analyst assumptions regarding sustained momentum in AI product adoption, improving net revenue retention (NRR) trends, and robust growth in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), which is a key indicator for future revenue generation [3].
Increased platform consumption drives growth in Snowflake's top customer segment. The expansion in the number of customers exceeding $1 million in trailing 12-month product revenue is largely attributed to several factors. These include increased consumption of Snowflake's core platform, the rapid adoption of new AI-focused products such as Snowflake Intelligence and Cortex Code, and strategic market expansion within the Forbes Global 2000 segment [2][3].
Sources (4)
7. What major product releases or changes to Snowflake's consumption model, announced for Q2 or Q3 FY2027, could accelerate or decelerate large enterprise customer growth?
| AI Services Billing Change | Q1 FY2027 (April 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| $1M+ TTM Customers (Q1 FY2027) | 779 [2] |
| YoY Growth $1M+ TTM Customers (Q1 FY2027) | 29% [2] |
Snowflake adjusted its AI services consumption model for flexibility. In Q1 FY2027, specifically April 2026, Snowflake modified its consumption model for 'AI_SERVICES,' segmenting them into more specific types like 'CORTEX_AGENTS' and 'SNOWFLAKE_INTELLIGENCE.' This change aims to provide more flexible pricing and packaging options, a key consideration for enterprises seeking adaptability in their decisions [1][3].
Accelerated AI product adoption drives core platform consumption. The adoption of AI products, including Snowflake Intelligence and Cortex Code (CoCo), is accelerating core platform consumption in FY2027. Management has attributed the raised FY2027 revenue guidance to the strong uptake of these agentic tools, which facilitate customers' progression from simple queries to automated production workflows [4][5][6][2].
AI-driven growth reflects in large enterprise segment. This strategic shift and accelerated AI adoption are reflected in Snowflake's large enterprise segment. As of Q1 FY2027, the company reported robust growth, with 779 customers generating over $1 million in trailing 12-month revenue, marking a 29% year-over-year increase [2].
Sources (6)
- 1Apr 6, 2026: AI_SERVICES billing breakout for implemented AI Credits services | Snowflake Documentationdocs.snowflake.com
- 2Snowflake Q1 FY2027: AI tailwinds drive record dollar growth, guidance raised | Insight Newsnews.insightanalytics.io
- 3Who Will Actually Make Money From AI?youtube.com
- 4Snowflake, Inc. (SNOW)s26.q4cdn.com
- 5Snowflake (SNOW) Q1 2027 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 6Snowflake Inc (SNOW) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Growth and AI Innovations Propel... By GuruFocusca.investing.com
8. How does Snowflake's growth in customers spending over $1 million annually compare to the same metric for its key competitor, Databricks, in the first half of fiscal year 2027?
| Snowflake $1M+ TTM Customers (Q1 FY27) | 779 customers (April 30, 2026) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Databricks $1M+ Annual Run-Rate Customers | Over 800 customers (February 2026) [5][6][7][8][4] |
| Snowflake New $1M+ TTM Customers (Q1 FY27) | 46 customers [1][2][3][4] |
Customer counts for Snowflake and Databricks vary, complicating direct comparisons. By the close of the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, on April 30, 2026, Snowflake reported 779 customers generating over $1 million in trailing 12-month (TTM) product revenue [1][2][3][4]. In contrast, Databricks reported exceeding 800 customers with an annual revenue run-rate of over $1 million as of February 2026 [5][6][7][8][4]. A precise side-by-side analysis is challenging due to the difference in reporting metrics, with Snowflake using TTM product revenue in its official SEC filings and Databricks providing annual revenue run-rate figures [9][4][10].
Snowflake showed notable growth in high-value customers during Q1 FY27. During the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, Snowflake added 46 customers who met the $1 million TTM product revenue benchmark [1][2][3][4]. This increased their total number of customers spending over $1 million from 733 at the end of fiscal year 2026 (January 2026) to 779 by the conclusion of Q1 fiscal year 2027 [4].
Databricks' specific customer growth in H1 FY27 remains undisclosed. The available research does not provide specific growth data for Databricks' customers spending over $1 million annually within the first half of fiscal year 2027, beyond the "over 800" figure reported in February 2026 [5][6][7][8][4]. Consequently, a direct comparison of customer growth between the two companies for this specific period cannot be fully established from the provided information.
Sources (10)
- 1Documentsec.gov
- 2Snowflake Inc (SNOW) 10-Q Quarterly Report May 2026last10k.com
- 3Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027 | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 4Snowflake vs Databricks: The Data Platform Waranalysis-atlas.com
- 5Databricks Grows >65% YoY, Surpasses $5.4 Billion...databricks.com
- 6Databricks $175B Jump: Why 800 Enterprises Pay $1M+ | THE D<em>AI</em>LY BRIEFberi.net
- 7Databricks Grows >65% YoY, Surpasses $5.4 Billion Revenue Run-Rate, Doubles Down on Lakebase and Genie - TNGlobaltechnode.global
- 8Databricks Growth Surges Hits Record Revenue 2026 | Revefirevefi.com
- 9Snowflake vs Databricks 2026: $134B IPO, 9x ML Cost Gaptech-insider.org
- 10SNOW vs. Databricks: The AI Data War Wall Street May Be Underpricing | TECHitechi.com
9. Which third-party datasets, such as reports from Gartner or Forrester, offer the most reliable leading indicators for enterprise cloud data spending trends relevant to Snowflake's performance in Q3 FY2027?
| Gartner 2026 IT Spending Growth | 14.2% ($6.37 trillion) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Forrester 2026 IT Spending Growth | 7.8% ($5.6 trillion) [1][2][3] |
| Snowflake Customers >$1M Revenue Q1 FY2027 | 779 [4][5][6][7] |
Foundational macro-indicators from major firms guide cloud spending forecasts. Third-party datasets are crucial for understanding enterprise cloud data spending trends relevant to Snowflake's Q3 FY2027 performance, ranging from foundational macro-indicators by firms like Gartner and Forrester, to more granular signals. Gartner forecasts a 14.2% increase in global IT spending to $6.37 trillion in 2026, while Forrester projects a 7.8% increase to $5.6 trillion for the same year, with AI infrastructure and IaaS identified as key growth drivers [1][2][3]. Snowflake's strong enterprise penetration and increasing platform usage are evidenced by the growth in customers generating over $1 million in trailing 12-month revenue, which rose from 654 in Q2 FY2026 to 779 in Q1 FY2027, serving as a vital KPI for enterprise standardization [4][5][6][7].
Granular datasets offer immediate, predictive views of B2B market momentum. For more specific and immediate insights into enterprise cloud data spending, HG Insights offers a predictive view of B2B market momentum through granular, account-level technology spend signals that differentiate between external vendor spend and internal investment [8]. Additionally, operational metrics such as the Coupa Business Spend Index (BSI) track indirect procurement momentum, providing another layer of spending insight [9]. Flexera's State of the Cloud Report offers specific benchmarks on public cloud waste, FinOps maturity, and commitment-based discounting, directly influencing the budget elasticity available for enterprise software platforms such as Snowflake [10][11][12].
Sources (12)
- 1Gartner Forecasts Worldwide IT Spending to Grow 14.2% in 2026, Totaling $6.37 Trilliongartner.com
- 2Forrester’s Global Tech Forecast, 2025 To 2030forrester.com
- 3Global Technology Spending Will Grow A Record 7.8% In 2026 To Reach $5.6 Trillionforrester.com
- 4Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter...snowflake.com
- 599.1sec.gov
- 6Snowflake (SNOW): AI Data Cloud Growth at a Premium | TickerSparktickerspark.ai
- 7Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the Second Quarter of Fiscal 2026businesswire.com
- 8How Tech Spend Signals Predict B2B Market Momentumhginsights.com
- 9BSI - Full | Coupacoupa.com
- 102026 State of the Cloud Report: Cloud spend, AI & FinOps benchmarksresources.flexera.com
- 11What 2026 cloud data tells us about spend, scale and strategyflexera.com
- 12AI Capex Cycle 2026: $725B Hyperscaler Buildout — CFA Analysisalcapitaladvisory.com
10. What has been the quarter-over-quarter growth rate for Snowflake's '$1M customer' cohort, and what does this historical trend project for Q3 FY2027?
| Q1 FY2027 QoQ growth (customers > $1M) | +6.28% (Q1 FY2027) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Customers > $1M (Q1 FY2027) | 779 customers (April 30, 2026) [1][2] |
| Customers > $1M (Q4 FY2026) | 733 customers [3][4][2] |
Historical growth rates for this cohort have shown significant variation. Previous quarter-over-quarter growth rates for this customer segment include +10.17% in Q1 FY2026, +2.35% in Q2 FY2026, +5.66% in Q3 FY2026, and +6.08% in Q4 FY2026 [1].
Insufficient data prevents projecting Q3 FY2027 customer growth for Snowflake. The available research does not contain sufficient information to project customer growth or counts for Q3 FY2027 [1].
Sources (4)
- 1Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027 | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 2Snowflake: Q1 FY27 Snowflake Earnings Presentation | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 3SNOWFLAKE INVESTOR PRESENTATIONs26.q4cdn.com
- 4Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter...snowflake.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The bearish case for Snowflake hinges on potential macroeconomic cloud spending slowdowns, competitive pressure from alternatives like Iceberg-based storage impacting margins, and the risk that AI consumption fails to offset costs or boost net revenue retention (NRR) as expected [6].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 25, 2027
- Closes: March 25, 2027
Sources (6)
- 1Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027 | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 2Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027markets.financialcontent.com
- 3Is Snowflake stock still a buy in 2027?pulserevops.com
- 4Snowflake Is Up 127% From Its 52-Week Low. August 26 Is the Next Test. – Investment Houseinvestmenthouse.com
- 5Snowflake Stock Erased a 56% Drawdown. A Coding Agent Could Be Why. | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 6What is the bear case for Snowflake 2027?pulserevops.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 7 markets in this series
Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P785: NO (May 27, 2026)
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P780: NO (May 27, 2026)
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P775: YES (May 27, 2026)
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P770: YES (May 27, 2026)
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P765: YES (May 27, 2026)
