Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027 to be Above 835 (20.0% model vs 0.0% market), driven by consistent customer growth and projected expansion from AI product adoption.
1. Executive Verdict
- Snowflake's $1M+ customers reached 779 in Q1 FY2027, growing 6.28%.
- Continued expansion is projected, driven by AI product adoption.
- Historical trends suggest over 855 customers by Q3 FY2027.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 835 | 0.0% | 20.0% | Snowflake's >$1M revenue customers showed consistent growth, with continued expansion projected from AI adoption. |
| Above 840 | 0.0% | 20.0% | Snowflake's >$1M revenue customers showed consistent growth, with continued expansion projected from AI adoption. |
| Above 845 | 0.0% | 20.0% | Snowflake's >$1M revenue customers showed consistent growth, with continued expansion projected from AI adoption. |
| Above 850 | 0.0% | 20.0% | Snowflake's >$1M revenue customers showed consistent growth, with continued expansion projected from AI adoption. |
| Above 855 | 0.0% | 20.0% | Snowflake's >$1M revenue customers showed consistent growth, with continued expansion projected from AI adoption. |
Current Context
Snowflake reported strong customer growth in Q1 fiscal 2027. As of the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, which ended April 30, 2026, Snowflake had 779 customers generating over $1 million in trailing 12-month product revenue [^][^][^]. Additionally, 64 customers exceeded $10 million in trailing 12-month product revenue during this period [^][^].
Customer growth accelerated from the prior fiscal quarter. For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, ended October 31, 2025, the company had reported 688 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million [^][^][^]. Snowflake's total revenue for Q1 fiscal 2027 reached $1.39 billion, marking a 33% year-over-year increase, with a net revenue retention rate of 126% [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market, which resolves based on whether Snowflake's count of customers with over $1 million in trailing 12-month revenue exceeds 835 in Q3 2027, saw its price jump from 0.0% to 91.0% on its first day of activity. This immediate and sharp upward move appears to be a direct reaction to Snowflake's Q1 fiscal 2027 financial results. The company reported having 779 customers in this category as of April 30, 2026. The market's high price implies a strong expectation that Snowflake will add at least 56 net new customers of this size over the subsequent two fiscal quarters.
The price action is not supported by any trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the 91.0% level represents an untested offer price rather than a consensus view established through transactions. The absence of volume suggests a lack of liquidity and market participation. Consequently, no meaningful support or resistance levels have been formed.
The current 91.0% price indicates a theoretical sentiment that Snowflake is highly likely to meet the contract's condition. However, this sentiment is based on a single market participant's pricing and has not been confirmed by opposing capital. The lack of trading activity means conviction behind this price is unproven.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 05, 2026: 88.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 88.0%
Outcome: Above 840
What happened: The provided web research does not contain any information about social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors that would explain an 88.0 percentage point spike in this specific prediction market on August 05, 2026. The movement described appears to be related to specific prediction market or algorithmic trading data point tracking, rather than a publicly reported corporate financial catalyst or social media narrative concerning Snowflake's large customer count [^][^][^][^]. Snowflake's most recent reported figure was 779 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million in Q1 fiscal 2027 (reported May 2026) [^]. Based on the available information, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market "Above 865" resolves to YES if the number of Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue greater than $1 million in Q3 is above 865, and resolves to NO if this number is 865 or less. Trading concludes on December 2 at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of March 25, 2027. Settlement will be based on the reported count of Snowflake customers meeting these criteria, with no special conditions mentioned in the provided information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 835 | $0.99 | $0.09 | 0% |
| Above 840 | $0.96 | $0.12 | 0% |
| Above 845 | $0.92 | $0.16 | 0% |
| Above 850 | $0.85 | $0.23 | 0% |
| Above 855 | $0.76 | $0.32 | 0% |
| Above 860 | $0.67 | $0.41 | 0% |
| Above 865 | $0.56 | $0.52 | 0% |
| Above 870 | $0.45 | $0.63 | 0% |
| Above 875 | $0.35 | $0.73 | 0% |
| Above 880 | $0.26 | $0.82 | 0% |
| Above 885 | $0.18 | $0.90 | 0% |
| Above 890 | $0.13 | $0.95 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Snowflake reported 688 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue exceeding $1 million as of Q3 Fiscal 2026 (ended October 31, 2025) [^][^]. Other disclosures, however, indicated 772 such customers for FY2026 Q3, an increase from 654 in FY2026 Q2, with the figure further rising to 779 by Q1 Fiscal 2027 [^][^][^][^][^]. Market participants frequently emphasize the growth of this customer segment as a key indicator of enterprise adoption, platform stickiness, and effective expansion [^].
5. What is the Wall Street analyst consensus for Snowflake's key customer metrics in Q3 FY2027, and what underlying assumptions are driving these forecasts?
| Customers with >$1M TTM revenue (Q1 FY2027) | 779 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Wall Street consensus total revenue (Q3 FY2027) | ~$1.57 billion [^][^][^] |
| Key drivers of >$1M customer growth | Core platform consumption, AI product adoption (Snowflake Intelligence, Cortex Code), Forbes Global 2000 expansion [^][^] |
Wall Street analysts have not provided a consensus for Snowflake's Q3 FY2027 customers generating over $1 million in trailing 12-month product revenue. As of April 30, 2026, which marked the conclusion of Q1 FY2027, Snowflake reported 779 such customers [^][^][^]. The specific consensus forecast for this customer segment by October 31, 2026 (Q3 FY2027 end) is not available in the research findings.
Analysts forecast $1.57 billion in total revenue for Snowflake's Q3 FY2027. The Wall Street analyst consensus for Snowflake's total revenue for Q3 FY2027, ending October 31, 2026, is approximately $1.57 billion [^][^][^]. This projection is primarily supported by analyst assumptions regarding sustained momentum in AI product adoption, improving net revenue retention (NRR) trends, and robust growth in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), which is a key indicator for future revenue generation [^].
Increased platform consumption drives growth in Snowflake's top customer segment. The expansion in the number of customers exceeding $1 million in trailing 12-month product revenue is largely attributed to several factors. These include increased consumption of Snowflake's core platform, the rapid adoption of new AI-focused products such as Snowflake Intelligence and Cortex Code, and strategic market expansion within the Forbes Global 2000 segment [^][^].
6. What major product releases or changes to Snowflake's consumption model, announced for Q2 or Q3 FY2027, could accelerate or decelerate large enterprise customer growth?
| AI Services Billing Change | Q1 FY2027 (April 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| $1M+ TTM Customers (Q1 FY2027) | 779 [^] |
| YoY Growth $1M+ TTM Customers (Q1 FY2027) | 29% [^] |
Snowflake adjusted its AI services consumption model for flexibility. In Q1 FY2027, specifically April 2026, Snowflake modified its consumption model for 'AI_SERVICES,' segmenting them into more specific types like 'CORTEX_AGENTS' and 'SNOWFLAKE_INTELLIGENCE.' This change aims to provide more flexible pricing and packaging options, a key consideration for enterprises seeking adaptability in their decisions [^][^].
Accelerated AI product adoption drives core platform consumption. The adoption of AI products, including Snowflake Intelligence and Cortex Code (CoCo), is accelerating core platform consumption in FY2027. Management has attributed the raised FY2027 revenue guidance to the strong uptake of these agentic tools, which facilitate customers' progression from simple queries to automated production workflows [^][^][^][^].
AI-driven growth reflects in large enterprise segment. This strategic shift and accelerated AI adoption are reflected in Snowflake's large enterprise segment. As of Q1 FY2027, the company reported robust growth, with 779 customers generating over $1 million in trailing 12-month revenue, marking a 29% year-over-year increase [^].
7. How does Snowflake's growth in customers spending over $1 million annually compare to the same metric for its key competitor, Databricks, in the first half of fiscal year 2027?
| Snowflake $1M+ TTM Customers (Q1 FY27) | 779 customers (April 30, 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Databricks $1M+ Annual Run-Rate Customers | Over 800 customers (February 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Snowflake New $1M+ TTM Customers (Q1 FY27) | 46 customers [^][^][^][^] |
Customer counts for Snowflake and Databricks vary, complicating direct comparisons. By the close of the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, on April 30, 2026, Snowflake reported 779 customers generating over $1 million in trailing 12-month (TTM) product revenue [^][^][^][^]. In contrast, Databricks reported exceeding 800 customers with an annual revenue run-rate of over $1 million as of February 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. A precise side-by-side analysis is challenging due to the difference in reporting metrics, with Snowflake using TTM product revenue in its official SEC filings and Databricks providing annual revenue run-rate figures [^][^][^].
Snowflake showed notable growth in high-value customers during Q1 FY27. During the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, Snowflake added 46 customers who met the $1 million TTM product revenue benchmark [^][^][^][^]. This increased their total number of customers spending over $1 million from 733 at the end of fiscal year 2026 (January 2026) to 779 by the conclusion of Q1 fiscal year 2027 [^].
Databricks' specific customer growth in H1 FY27 remains undisclosed. The available research does not provide specific growth data for Databricks' customers spending over $1 million annually within the first half of fiscal year 2027, beyond the "over 800" figure reported in February 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. Consequently, a direct comparison of customer growth between the two companies for this specific period cannot be fully established from the provided information.
8. Which third-party datasets, such as reports from Gartner or Forrester, offer the most reliable leading indicators for enterprise cloud data spending trends relevant to Snowflake's performance in Q3 FY2027?
| Gartner 2026 IT Spending Growth | 14.2% ($6.37 trillion) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Forrester 2026 IT Spending Growth | 7.8% ($5.6 trillion) [^][^][^] |
| Snowflake Customers >$1M Revenue Q1 FY2027 | 779 [^][^][^][^] |
Foundational macro-indicators from major firms guide cloud spending forecasts. Third-party datasets are crucial for understanding enterprise cloud data spending trends relevant to Snowflake's Q3 FY2027 performance, ranging from foundational macro-indicators by firms like Gartner and Forrester, to more granular signals. Gartner forecasts a 14.2% increase in global IT spending to $6.37 trillion in 2026, while Forrester projects a 7.8% increase to $5.6 trillion for the same year, with AI infrastructure and IaaS identified as key growth drivers [^][^][^]. Snowflake's strong enterprise penetration and increasing platform usage are evidenced by the growth in customers generating over $1 million in trailing 12-month revenue, which rose from 654 in Q2 FY2026 to 779 in Q1 FY2027, serving as a vital KPI for enterprise standardization [^][^][^][^].
Granular datasets offer immediate, predictive views of B2B market momentum. For more specific and immediate insights into enterprise cloud data spending, HG Insights offers a predictive view of B2B market momentum through granular, account-level technology spend signals that differentiate between external vendor spend and internal investment [^]. Additionally, operational metrics such as the Coupa Business Spend Index (BSI) track indirect procurement momentum, providing another layer of spending insight [^]. Flexera's State of the Cloud Report offers specific benchmarks on public cloud waste, FinOps maturity, and commitment-based discounting, directly influencing the budget elasticity available for enterprise software platforms such as Snowflake [^][^][^].
9. What has been the quarter-over-quarter growth rate for Snowflake's '$1M customer' cohort, and what does this historical trend project for Q3 FY2027?
| Q1 FY2027 QoQ growth (customers > $1M) | +6.28% (Q1 FY2027) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Customers > $1M (Q1 FY2027) | 779 customers (April 30, 2026) [^][^] |
| Customers > $1M (Q4 FY2026) | 733 customers [^][^][^] |
Historical growth rates for this cohort have shown significant variation. Previous quarter-over-quarter growth rates for this customer segment include +10.17% in Q1 FY2026, +2.35% in Q2 FY2026, +5.66% in Q3 FY2026, and +6.08% in Q4 FY2026 [^].
Insufficient data prevents projecting Q3 FY2027 customer growth for Snowflake. The available research does not contain sufficient information to project customer growth or counts for Q3 FY2027 [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The primary bullish catalyst for Snowflake in 2027 is the adoption of 'Cortex AI' and 'Cortex Code' (CoCo), which are driving increased consumption of the core data platform [^] [^] [^] . August 26 Is the Next Test. – Investment House" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. Bullish projections target 8-12% Cortex AI attach rates by Q3 FY2027 [^][^][^].
The bearish case for Snowflake hinges on potential macroeconomic cloud spending slowdowns, competitive pressure from alternatives like Iceberg-based storage impacting margins, and the risk that AI consumption fails to offset costs or boost net revenue retention (NRR) as expected [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 25, 2027
- Closes: March 25, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Snowflake reported 779 customers with trailing 12-month (TTM) product revenue greater than $1 million as of Q1 fiscal 2027 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The company's next major financial catalyst is the Q2 FY2027 earnings report, scheduled for August 26, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The primary bullish catalyst for Snowflake in 2027 is the adoption of 'Cortex AI' and 'Cortex Code' (CoCo), which are driving increased consumption of the core data platform [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish projections target 8-12% Cortex AI attach rates by Q3 FY2027 [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 7 markets in this series
Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P785: NO (May 27, 2026)
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P780: NO (May 27, 2026)
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P775: YES (May 27, 2026)
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P770: YES (May 27, 2026)
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P765: YES (May 27, 2026)
