Workiva customers over $100k ACV in Q1 2027
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Q1 2027 large customer count likely below 3,000, per Kalshi market data.
- Exceeding 2,950 customers remains plausible, supported by Q4 2026 Kalshi data.
- Counts above 3,050 and 3,100 show less than 1% Kalshi market probability.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3000 | 0.0% | 0.4% | The Kalshi market for Q1 2027 indicates low customer growth and declining net retention. |
| Above 3050 | 0.0% | 0.3% | The Kalshi market for Q1 2027 indicates low customer growth and declining net retention. |
| Above 3100 | 0.0% | 0.2% | The Kalshi market for Q1 2027 indicates low customer growth and declining net retention. |
| Above 3150 | 0.0% | 0.2% | The Kalshi market for Q1 2027 indicates low customer growth and declining net retention. |
| Above 3200 | 0.0% | 0.1% | The Kalshi market for Q1 2027 indicates low customer growth and declining net retention. |
Current Context
Sources (20)
- 1Workiva: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending September 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 2Workiva (WK) Operating Metrics & Breakdownsstockanalysis.com
- 3Workiva Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Workivainvestor.workiva.com
- 4Workiva | 8-K: FY2025 Q4 Revenue Beats Estimate at USD 238.94 M | Longbridgelongbridge.com
- 5Workiva Forecasts Strong Momentum into 2026 as Recurring Revenue...marketchameleon.com
- 6WORKIVA INC — Investor Presentation 2026financialfilings.com
- 7Workiva grew $100K+ ACV customers 83% and NRR | TacticalVCtacticalvc.ai
- 8Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 9Workiva Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 10Workiva Q3 revenue hits $263M as profit reaches $19.1M | WK Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
- 11Workiva (WK) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 12Workiva at Morgan Stanley Conference: AI and Growth Strategy By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 13Workiva Inc earnings missed by $0.08, revenue topped estimates By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 14Workiva (NYSE:WK) Issues Q4 2026 Earnings Guidancemarketbeat.com
- 15Workiva (WK) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targetsstockanalysis.com
- 16Workiva (WK) Earnings Date, Estimates & Call Transcriptsmarketbeat.com
- 17Events | Workivainvestor.workiva.com
- 18Workiva (WK) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financialspublic.com
- 19Workiva customers over $100k ACV next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 20Workiva (WK) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
2. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Workiva reports over 3000 customers with over $100k ACV for the next quarter, and NO if the reported number is 3000 or less. Trading for this market ends on May 4, 4:00pm EDT. The maximum payout date for this market is September 1, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3000 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 3050 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 3100 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 3150 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 3200 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 3400 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Workiva reported 2,853 customers with ACV over $100,000 as of September 30, 2026 (Q3 2026) [1][2], and based on historical quarterly net additions averaging approximately 109 customers, the Q1 2027 count is projected to reach approximately 3,000-3,100 [3][4][1][5]. However, a prediction market for Q1 2027 (resolving May 2027) currently prices thresholds above 3,000, 3,050, and 3,100 customers all at <1% probability as of November 10, 2026, suggesting the market anticipates a value below 3,000 [6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 2Workiva Earnings Call Highlights Growth, AI and Margins - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
- 3Workiva (WK) Operating Metrics & Breakdownsstockanalysis.com
- 4Workiva Q1 2026 profit jumps on 20% revenue gain | WK 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 5Workiva | 8-K: FY2025 Q4 Revenue Beats Estimate at USD 238.94 M | Longbridgelongbridge.com
- 6Workiva customers over $100k ACV next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 7Workiva customers over $100k ACV next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
3. What guidance in Workiva's Q4 2026 earnings report could signal an acceleration or deceleration in large customer acquisition for Q1 2027?
| Q4 2026 Revenue Guidance | $275M-$278M (approx. 19% YoY growth) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 Net New Logos | Largest number in seven quarters [5] |
| Net Retention Rate | Declined from 113.6% (Q3 2025) to 109.6% (Q3 2026) [6] |
Sources (7)
- 1Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 2Workiva Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Workivainvestor.workiva.com
- 3Workiva Beat Revenue, But the Guidance Cut Tells the Real Storyainvest.com
- 4Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Summary | Quartrquartr.com
- 5Workiva (WK) Transcript: Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conferencestockanalysis.com
- 6Workiva: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending September 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 7Workiva (WK) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
4. What quarterly net additions would Workiva need in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 to reach 3,100 large customers, and how does this required rate compare to its 2025-2026 performance?
| Target customers with ACV > $100k | 3,100 by Q1 2027 (March 31, 2027) [1] |
|---|---|
| Current customers with ACV > $100k | 2,853 as of Sep 30, 2026 [1] |
| Required net additions per quarter | ~124 in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 [1] |
Sources (7)
- 1Workiva Q3 revenue hits $263M as profit reaches $19.1M | WK Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
- 2Workiva (WK) Operating Metrics & Breakdownsstockanalysis.com
- 3Workiva Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Workivainvestor.workiva.com
- 4Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results – NEWSnet Nashvillenashville.newsnetmedia.com
- 5Workiva Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results | lifestyle.gooddecisions.comlifestyle.gooddecisions.com
- 6Annual Reportsec.gov
- 7Documentsec.gov
5. How does the growth contribution from upselling existing customers compare to that from acquiring entirely new large accounts for Workiva?
| Net Retention Rate | 110-113% (recent quarters) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Q1/Q2 2026 Existing Customer Revenue | Approximately 55% of subscription revenue increase [4][5] |
| Q3 2026 New Customer Revenue | 48% of net new subscription revenue [2] |
Sources (7)
- 1Workiva (WK) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 2Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 3Workiva Forecasts Strong Momentum into 2026 as Recurring Revenue...marketchameleon.com
- 4Workiva (WK) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 5Workiva (WK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 6Workiva (WK) Transcript: Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conferencestockanalysis.com
- 7Workiva Inc. (WK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summaryearningscalls.dev
6. What are the latest Wall Street analyst estimates for Workiva's customers with over $100k ACV for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027?
| Q4 2026 ACV > $100k Customers Estimate | 2,950-3,010 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2027 ACV > $100k Customers Estimate | 3,000-3,050 [2][4] |
| Q1 2027 Prediction Market Implication | Below 3,000 [5] |
Sources (8)
- 1Workiva Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 2Workiva (WK) Operating Metrics & Breakdownsstockanalysis.com
- 3Workiva | 8-K: FY2025 Q4 Revenue Beats Estimate at USD 238.94 M | Longbridgelongbridge.com
- 4Workiva Q1 2025 slides: 20% subscription growth as multi-solution strategy gains traction By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 5Workiva customers over $100k ACV next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 6Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 7Workiva Inc (WK) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Topgurufocus.com
- 8Workiva customers over $100k ACV in fiscal 2026: Odds & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
7. How might macroeconomic forecasts for late 2026 and early 2027 impact enterprise software budgets and, consequently, Workiva's growth trajectory?
| Worldwide IT Spending Growth (2027) | 15% (Gartner) [1] |
|---|---|
| Enterprise IT Budget for Operations | Over 70% [2] |
| Workiva 2027 Revenue Target | $1.1-$1.2 billion [3][4] |
Sources (10)
- 1Gartner Forecasts Worldwide IT Spending to Grow 15% in 2027, Totaling $7.35 Trilliongartner.com
- 2IT Budget 2027: Three Quarters for Operations – That’s the Problemdigital-chiefs.de
- 3Workiva (WK) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 4Workiva (WK) Transcript: Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conferencestockanalysis.com
- 5World Economic Outlook, October 2026; Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices; October 13, 2026imf.org
- 6Are you ready for 2027? A global economic outlook | Converaconvera.com
- 7The agent in the back office: a Change Associates white paperchangeassociates.com
- 8EarningsCall · WK Q4 2025earningscall.biz
- 9Spend On GRC Software To Surpass $9 Billion In 2029verdantix.com
- 10Disclosure Management (DM) - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)researchandmarkets.com
8. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 01, 2027
- Closes: September 01, 2027
Sources (17)
- 1Workiva (WK) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reports - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
- 2WK earnings — beat/miss history & catalyst calendar | TrendMatrixtrendmatrix.com
- 3Workiva Beat Revenue, But the Guidance Cut Tells the Real Storyainvest.com
- 4Workiva: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending September 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
- 5Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 6Workiva Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Workivainvestor.workiva.com
- 7Workiva Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 8Workiva Q3 revenue hits $263M as profit reaches $19.1M | WK Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
- 9Workiva Inc (WK) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Topgurufocus.com
- 10Workiva (WK) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 11Workiva (WK) Stock Shrugs Off Profit Breakthrough As Valuation Debate Deepens - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
- 12EarningsCall · WK Q4 2025earningscall.biz
- 13Workiva (WK) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary & Outlookquartr.com
- 14Workiva Inc (WK) March 2, 2026 Conference Transcript - Equiblesequibles.com
- 15Workiva (WK) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 16Workiva (WK) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targetsstockanalysis.com
- 17Workiva (WK) Projected to Release Earnings on Thursdaymarketbeat.com