Short Answer

Workiva's customers with over $100k ACV are not expected to exceed 3,000 in Q1 2027, as historical growth rates have decelerated, net retention has declined, and billings growth has slowed. The market prices this outcome at 0.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Q1 2027 large customer count likely below 3,000, per Kalshi market data.
  • Exceeding 2,950 customers remains plausible, supported by Q4 2026 Kalshi data.
  • Counts above 3,050 and 3,100 show less than 1% Kalshi market probability.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 3000 0.0% 0.4% The Kalshi market for Q1 2027 indicates low customer growth and declining net retention.
Above 3050 0.0% 0.3% The Kalshi market for Q1 2027 indicates low customer growth and declining net retention.
Above 3100 0.0% 0.2% The Kalshi market for Q1 2027 indicates low customer growth and declining net retention.
Above 3150 0.0% 0.2% The Kalshi market for Q1 2027 indicates low customer growth and declining net retention.
Above 3200 0.0% 0.1% The Kalshi market for Q1 2027 indicates low customer growth and declining net retention.

Current Context

Workiva's large customer base expanded consistently through Q3 2026. Workiva reported 2,853 customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) over $100,000 as of September 30, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. This represents a 20% year-over-year increase from 2,372 customers in Q3 2025 [1][2][3][4][5]. Sequential quarterly progression for this cohort was 2,507 in Q4 2025, 2,580 in Q1 2026, 2,690 in Q2 2026, and 2,853 in Q3 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. The $100K+ ACV customer cohort achieved a 23% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over four years, growing from 1,186 customers in Q2 2022 to 2,690 in Q2 2026 [6][7]. Larger customer segments also demonstrated growth, with 708 customers over $300,000 ACV (up 31% year-over-year) and 283 customers over $500,000 ACV (up 20% year-over-year) by September 30, 2026 [1][8][3][9][10]. Subscription and support revenue from $100K+ ACV customers accounted for 82.0% of total subscription and support revenue in Q3 2026, up from 77.6% in Q3 2025 [1][8][3][9][10]. Workiva indicates that over 60% of its customer base is below $100K ACV, which suggests further expansion potential [11][12].
Workiva reported Q3 2026 revenue above consensus, but missed EPS. Total revenue for Q3 2026 was $263 million, an increase of 17% year-over-year, with subscription and support revenue reaching $246 million [8][3][13][14][9]. This revenue figure surpassed the analyst consensus of $261.37 million [13][14][15][16]. However, Q3 2026 EPS of $0.72 was $0.08 below the $0.80 analyst consensus [13][14][15][16]. Following the report, shares declined 15.4% to $72.37 [13][14][15][16]. Current analyst consensus price targets range from $87-$91.40 [13][14][15][16]. The company's net retention rate was 109.6% and gross retention rate was 97.4% in Q3 2026, both exceeding Workiva's 96% gross retention target [1][8][3][9][10]. Net retention considers changes in both solutions and pricing for existing customers [1][8][3][9][10]. Workiva reported $817 million in cash and marketable securities as of September 30, 2026, and a free cash flow margin of 26.1% in Q3 2026 [8][3][9]. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance is set at $1.041-$1.044 billion, with Q4 2026 revenue guidance between $275-$278 million [8][3][13][14][9]. The company's medium-term revenue target for 2027 is $1.1-$1.2 billion, with an 18% operating margin target for 2027 [11][12].
Q1 2027 customer figures await future earnings, building on prior trends. Workiva's Q4 2026 earnings are anticipated on February 18, 2027 [17][16][18]. Q1 2027 earnings, covering the quarter ending March 31, 2027, are expected to be reported in early May 2027, consistent with historical patterns [17][16][18]. For Q3 2026, the Kalshi prediction market had forecasted 2,804 customers with ACV over $100K, implying a 4.2% quarter-over-quarter growth, while the actual reported figure was 2,853 [19][20]. The Kalshi market for 'Workiva customers over $100k ACV next quarter' is currently active for 2027 predictions [19][20].
Sources (20)
  1. 1Workiva: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending September 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  2. 2Workiva (WK) Operating Metrics & Breakdownsstockanalysis.com
  3. 3Workiva Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Workivainvestor.workiva.com
  4. 4Workiva | 8-K: FY2025 Q4 Revenue Beats Estimate at USD 238.94 M | Longbridgelongbridge.com
  5. 5Workiva Forecasts Strong Momentum into 2026 as Recurring Revenue...marketchameleon.com
  6. 6WORKIVA INC — Investor Presentation 2026financialfilings.com
  7. 7Workiva grew $100K+ ACV customers 83% and NRR | TacticalVCtacticalvc.ai
  8. 8Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  9. 9Workiva Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  10. 10Workiva Q3 revenue hits $263M as profit reaches $19.1M | WK Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  11. 11Workiva (WK) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  12. 12Workiva at Morgan Stanley Conference: AI and Growth Strategy By Investing.cominvesting.com
  13. 13Workiva Inc earnings missed by $0.08, revenue topped estimates By Investing.cominvesting.com
  14. 14Workiva (NYSE:WK) Issues Q4 2026 Earnings Guidancemarketbeat.com
  15. 15Workiva (WK) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targetsstockanalysis.com
  16. 16Workiva (WK) Earnings Date, Estimates & Call Transcriptsmarketbeat.com
  17. 17Events | Workivainvestor.workiva.com
  18. 18Workiva (WK) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financialspublic.com
  19. 19Workiva customers over $100k ACV next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  20. 20Workiva (WK) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com

2. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if Workiva reports over 3000 customers with over $100k ACV for the next quarter, and NO if the reported number is 3000 or less. Trading for this market ends on May 4, 4:00pm EDT. The maximum payout date for this market is September 1, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 3000 $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 3050 $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 3100 $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 3150 $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 3200 $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 3400 $0.00 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

Workiva reported 2,853 customers with ACV over $100,000 as of September 30, 2026 (Q3 2026) [1][2], and based on historical quarterly net additions averaging approximately 109 customers, the Q1 2027 count is projected to reach approximately 3,000-3,100 [3][4][1][5]. However, a prediction market for Q1 2027 (resolving May 2027) currently prices thresholds above 3,000, 3,050, and 3,100 customers all at <1% probability as of November 10, 2026, suggesting the market anticipates a value below 3,000 [6][7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Workiva Earnings Call Highlights Growth, AI and Margins - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  3. 3Workiva (WK) Operating Metrics & Breakdownsstockanalysis.com
  4. 4Workiva Q1 2026 profit jumps on 20% revenue gain | WK 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  5. 5Workiva | 8-K: FY2025 Q4 Revenue Beats Estimate at USD 238.94 M | Longbridgelongbridge.com
  6. 6Workiva customers over $100k ACV next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  7. 7Workiva customers over $100k ACV next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com

3. What guidance in Workiva's Q4 2026 earnings report could signal an acceleration or deceleration in large customer acquisition for Q1 2027?

Q4 2026 Revenue Guidance$275M-$278M (approx. 19% YoY growth) [1][2][3][4]
Q3 2026 Net New LogosLargest number in seven quarters [5]
Net Retention RateDeclined from 113.6% (Q3 2025) to 109.6% (Q3 2026) [6]
Workiva's Q4 2026 earnings report could signal accelerated large customer acquisition. This would be indicated if management emphasizes Q4 as their largest bookings quarter, which historically drives significant large customer additions [1][2][3][4]. Further positive signs would include a reinforcement of strong new customer acquisition momentum, similar to the 'largest number of net new logos from the last seven quarters' reported in Q3 2026 [5]. The Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $275 million to $278 million, representing approximately 19% year-over-year growth, supports this outlook [1][2][3][4]. Additionally, sustained growth in large contract cohorts, such as the 31% year-over-year increase for contracts over $300,000 and 20% year-over-year increase for contracts over $500,000 as of Q3 2026, would reflect the landing of larger multi-solution new logos and further support acceleration [1][2][6].
Signals for deceleration include reduced profitability and declining retention. A deceleration in large customer acquisition for Q1 2027 could be signaled if the Q4 2026 earnings report indicates further cuts to the full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance, which was previously lowered to $2.80-$2.83, suggesting increased caution on profitability [3]. Furthermore, any commentary on a continued decline in the net retention rate, which decreased from 113.6% in Q3 2025 to 109.6% in Q3 2026, could imply reduced expansion or customer attrition within the large customer segment [6]. The company's 2027 medium-term revenue target, which suggests approximately 6-15% growth from 2026 guidance, also implies moderating top-line growth and could contribute to a deceleration signal [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Workiva Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Workivainvestor.workiva.com
  3. 3Workiva Beat Revenue, But the Guidance Cut Tells the Real Storyainvest.com
  4. 4Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Summary | Quartrquartr.com
  5. 5Workiva (WK) Transcript: Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conferencestockanalysis.com
  6. 6Workiva: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending September 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  7. 7Workiva (WK) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com

4. What quarterly net additions would Workiva need in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 to reach 3,100 large customers, and how does this required rate compare to its 2025-2026 performance?

Target customers with ACV > $100k3,100 by Q1 2027 (March 31, 2027) [1]
Current customers with ACV > $100k2,853 as of Sep 30, 2026 [1]
Required net additions per quarter~124 in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 [1]
Workiva needs 124 quarterly large customer additions to meet its goal. To reach 3,100 large customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) over $100,000 by Q1 2027 (March 31, 2027), Workiva must secure approximately 124 net additions per quarter in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 [1]. As of September 30, 2026, the company reported 2,853 customers in this category [1]. This required acquisition rate is slightly below Workiva's 2026 average of about 130 net additions per quarter, yet it is slightly above its 2025 average of approximately 112 net additions per quarter [2][3][4][1][5][6].
Workiva's recent growth trajectory supports achieving this customer target. Workiva's 2026 quarterly net additions for these large customers demonstrated a positive growth trend, with +68 in Q1, +115 in Q2, and +163 in Q3, averaging approximately 130 net additions per quarter [2][3][4][1][5]. This compares to an average of approximately 112 net additions per quarter during 2025 [2][3][7][5][6]. The necessary ~124 net additions per quarter for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 indicates that the 3,100 customer target is achievable, provided the company maintains or slightly accelerates its 2026 customer acquisition pace [2][3][4][1][5][6]. Reaching 3,100 large customers by Q1 2027 is plausible, contingent on sustained momentum [1].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Workiva Q3 revenue hits $263M as profit reaches $19.1M | WK Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  2. 2Workiva (WK) Operating Metrics & Breakdownsstockanalysis.com
  3. 3Workiva Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Workivainvestor.workiva.com
  4. 4Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results – NEWSnet Nashvillenashville.newsnetmedia.com
  5. 5Workiva Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results | lifestyle.gooddecisions.comlifestyle.gooddecisions.com
  6. 6Annual Reportsec.gov
  7. 7Documentsec.gov

5. How does the growth contribution from upselling existing customers compare to that from acquiring entirely new large accounts for Workiva?

Net Retention Rate110-113% (recent quarters) [1][2][3]
Q1/Q2 2026 Existing Customer RevenueApproximately 55% of subscription revenue increase [4][5]
Q3 2026 New Customer Revenue48% of net new subscription revenue [2]
Workiva's growth is largely driven by existing customer expansion, with new acquisitions increasing. In Q1 and Q2 2026, existing customer expansion contributed approximately 55% to the increase in subscription revenue, while new customers acquired within the last 12 months accounted for about 45% [4][5]. This represents a slight shift from full-year 2025, where new logos made up around 40% of incremental revenue and existing customers contributed approximately 60% [1]. By Q3 2026, new customer revenue reached 48% of net new subscription revenue, indicating a growing contribution from new accounts [2].
Significant opportunities exist for Workiva to expand within its current customer base. The company's net retention rate has consistently been 110-113% in recent quarters, supporting existing customer growth [1][2][3]. Workiva is observing accelerated growth in its larger contract cohorts, with accounts of $300K+ and $500K+ ACV growing at 30-42% year-over-year. This growth rate is notably faster than the 20-24% growth seen in the $100K+ tier [6][4][5][2]. This suggests both the successful expansion of existing accounts into higher-value deals and the acquisition of new large accounts. Furthermore, 55% of Workiva's customers currently utilize only one solution, presenting a substantial opportunity for a potential 3x multiplier on current ACV by selling more of the platform [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Workiva (WK) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  2. 2Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3Workiva Forecasts Strong Momentum into 2026 as Recurring Revenue...marketchameleon.com
  4. 4Workiva (WK) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5Workiva (WK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6Workiva (WK) Transcript: Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conferencestockanalysis.com
  7. 7Workiva Inc. (WK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summaryearningscalls.dev

6. What are the latest Wall Street analyst estimates for Workiva's customers with over $100k ACV for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027?

Q4 2026 ACV > $100k Customers Estimate2,950-3,010 [1][2][3]
Q1 2027 ACV > $100k Customers Estimate3,000-3,050 [2][4]
Q1 2027 Prediction Market ImplicationBelow 3,000 [5]
Workiva does not offer specific guidance on its $100k+ ACV customer count. While Workiva does not provide specific guidance for its customer count with over $100k ACV [6][7][1], estimates for Q4 2026, which concludes on December 31, 2026, project approximately 2,950-3,010 customers. This range is derived from the Q3 2026 actual count of 2,853 customers and observed historical sequential growth patterns [1][2][3]. This projection aligns with the Kalshi prediction market for 'Workiva customers over $100k ACV in fiscal 2026,' which indicates a median implied value of 2,970 customers and a 78% probability of exceeding 2,940 customers for the fiscal year [8].
Projections for Q1 2027 show a higher customer count, but market sentiment differs. Looking ahead to Q1 2027, ending March 31, 2027, the projected number of customers with ACV exceeding $100k is approximately 3,000-3,050, based on historical sequential additions [2][4]. However, the Kalshi prediction market for 'Workiva customers over $100k ACV next quarter' (Q1 2027) presents a contrasting outlook. This market suggests a less than 1% probability for the customer count to surpass 3,000, 3,050, or 3,100, implying an expectation that the Q1 2027 customer count will remain below 3,000 [5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Workiva Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  2. 2Workiva (WK) Operating Metrics & Breakdownsstockanalysis.com
  3. 3Workiva | 8-K: FY2025 Q4 Revenue Beats Estimate at USD 238.94 M | Longbridgelongbridge.com
  4. 4Workiva Q1 2025 slides: 20% subscription growth as multi-solution strategy gains traction By Investing.cominvesting.com
  5. 5Workiva customers over $100k ACV next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  6. 6Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  7. 7Workiva Inc (WK) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Topgurufocus.com
  8. 8Workiva customers over $100k ACV in fiscal 2026: Odds & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com

7. How might macroeconomic forecasts for late 2026 and early 2027 impact enterprise software budgets and, consequently, Workiva's growth trajectory?

Worldwide IT Spending Growth (2027)15% (Gartner) [1]
Enterprise IT Budget for OperationsOver 70% [2]
Workiva 2027 Revenue Target$1.1-$1.2 billion [3][4]
Global economic forecasts for 2026-2027 predict moderate growth and rising IT spending. Macroeconomic projections for late 2026 and early 2027 indicate global growth between 3.1% and 3.4%, and US growth between 2.2% and 2.7% [5][6]. Headline inflation is expected to increase in 2026 before easing in 2027, with risks skewed to the downside [5][6]. Despite these conditions, Gartner forecasts worldwide IT spending to grow by 15% to $7.35 trillion in 2027, with software spending specifically projected to increase by 14.6% to $1.679 trillion [1]. However, a "memflation" effect, stemming from memory price increases, is anticipated to persist through 2027, potentially suppressing end-user demand [1]. Additionally, over 70% of enterprise IT budgets are typically allocated to ongoing operations and maintenance, leaving limited capacity for new software innovation [2].
Workiva's growth is supported by mandatory compliance and GRC market demand. The company's growth trajectory may be bolstered by mandatory regulatory-driven software adoption, such as new EU AI Act high-risk obligations and the conclusion of SAP ECC 6.0 mainstream maintenance, which are expected to create spending less susceptible to macroeconomic headwinds [7]. Workiva positions itself as a "platform of trust," asserting that CFOs require its offerings for data accuracy, consistency, integrity, and traceability, which are essential for AI adoption, thereby making its spending less discretionary [8][4]. The Governance, Risk, and Compliance (GRC) software market is projected to nearly double from $4.98 billion in 2023 to $9.08 billion by 2029, primarily driven by regulatory demands [9]. Similarly, the disclosure management market is projected to grow at a 14.07% compound annual growth rate from 2026 to 2031, reaching $3.11 billion [10].
Workiva is outperforming internal targets, driven by strong market positioning. The company is reportedly approaching its medium-term 2027 target of $1.1-$1.2 billion in revenue and an 18% non-GAAP operating margin a year earlier than initially planned [3][4].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Gartner Forecasts Worldwide IT Spending to Grow 15% in 2027, Totaling $7.35 Trilliongartner.com
  2. 2IT Budget 2027: Three Quarters for Operations – That’s the Problemdigital-chiefs.de
  3. 3Workiva (WK) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  4. 4Workiva (WK) Transcript: Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conferencestockanalysis.com
  5. 5World Economic Outlook, October 2026; Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices; October 13, 2026imf.org
  6. 6Are you ready for 2027? A global economic outlook | Converaconvera.com
  7. 7The agent in the back office: a Change Associates white paperchangeassociates.com
  8. 8EarningsCall · WK Q4 2025earningscall.biz
  9. 9Spend On GRC Software To Surpass $9 Billion In 2029verdantix.com
  10. 10Disclosure Management (DM) - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)researchandmarkets.com

8. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Workiva's Q4 2026 earnings are estimated for February 23, 2027, with consensus EPS forecast of $0.79 [1][2]. This event will provide the most recent ACV customer count before Q1 2027 [1]. Billings growth reached 10.8% year-over-year in Q3 2026, averaging approximately 14% over the trailing four quarters, suggesting future revenue growth may cool [3]. The net retention rate declined to 110% in Q3 2026 from 113.6% in Q3 2025 [4][5][6][7][8].
Positive momentum exists in larger contract cohorts; customers with ACV over $300,000 grew 31% year-over-year to 708 in Q3 2026, and those with ACV over $500,000 increased 20% year-over-year to 283 [4][5][6][7][9][8]. The multi-solution revenue mix reached 77% in Q3 2026, up from 73% in Q3 2025 [5][9]. Workiva's AI monetization strategy includes premium tiered offerings with over 20% price uplifts, regulatory-grade AI agents, and core AI capabilities leveraging three large LLM models, with AI integrated into the platform for over two years [10][11][12].
Workiva's medium-term 2027 targets project revenue of $1.1-$1.2 billion with an 18% non-GAAP operating margin, while 2030 targets forecast revenue of $1.8-$2.0 billion with a 24-26% non-GAAP operating margin [10][13][14][15]. Analyst consensus is a 'Strong Buy' with an average price target of $91.40, representing 30.98% above the current price, based on 9 Buy ratings, 1 Hold, and 1 Sell among 11 analysts over the last three months [3][16][17].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 01, 2027
  • Closes: September 01, 2027
Sources (17)
  1. 1Workiva (WK) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reports - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  2. 2WK earnings — beat/miss history & catalyst calendar | TrendMatrixtrendmatrix.com
  3. 3Workiva Beat Revenue, But the Guidance Cut Tells the Real Storyainvest.com
  4. 4Workiva: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending September 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  5. 5Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6Workiva Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Workivainvestor.workiva.com
  7. 7Workiva Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsbusinesswire.com
  8. 8Workiva Q3 revenue hits $263M as profit reaches $19.1M | WK Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  9. 9Workiva Inc (WK) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Topgurufocus.com
  10. 10Workiva (WK) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  11. 11Workiva (WK) Stock Shrugs Off Profit Breakthrough As Valuation Debate Deepens - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  12. 12EarningsCall · WK Q4 2025earningscall.biz
  13. 13Workiva (WK) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary & Outlookquartr.com
  14. 14Workiva Inc (WK) March 2, 2026 Conference Transcript - Equiblesequibles.com
  15. 15Workiva (WK) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  16. 16Workiva (WK) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targetsstockanalysis.com
  17. 17Workiva (WK) Projected to Release Earnings on Thursdaymarketbeat.com