Okta customers with acv over $100k in Q3
Short Answer
Okta is not expected to have over 5400 customers with ACV above $100k in Q3 FY27; achieving this level demands significantly accelerated customer growth beyond recent trends, which the market prices at 3.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market repriced higher following Okta's Q2 fiscal year 2027 earnings report. The release on August 31 detailed growth in the metric central to this market: customers with an annual contract value (ACV) over $100,000. The company reported 5,255 such customers for the quarter ending July 31, 2026, an increase from 5,100 in the prior quarter. This data provides a new baseline and a positive growth trajectory leading into Q3, making the market's resolution target of 5,300 customers appear more attainable.
The upward price movement was supported by management commentary during the earnings call, which highlighted strength within Okta's large enterprise segment. Specifically, the company noted a more than 20% year-over-year increase in customers with ACV exceeding $1 million. The market's entire trading volume of 46 contracts occurred after the release of these results, suggesting the move was a direct reaction to the new information.
- Okta exceeding 5,300 to 5,375 customers carries 14% model probability, driven by consistent growth.
- Growth above 5,400 customers requires significantly accelerated trends, unsupported by current evidence.
- Q3 FY27 results, covering period ending October 31, 2026, announce December 2, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5400 | 3.0% | 3.0% | Achieving this level requires significantly accelerated customer growth not strongly supported by current evidence. |
| Above 5300 | 0.0% | 14.4% | Okta's consistent growth and positive management outlook support continued sequential customer growth. |
| Above 5325 | 0.0% | 14.4% | Okta's consistent growth and positive management outlook support continued sequential customer growth. |
| Above 5350 | 0.0% | 14.4% | Okta's consistent growth and positive management outlook support continued sequential customer growth. |
| Above 5375 | 0.0% | 14.4% | Okta's consistent growth and positive management outlook support continued sequential customer growth. |
Current Context
Okta's customer base with over $100k ACV shows consistent growth. As of July 31, 2026, the close of Okta's Q2 Fiscal Year 2027, the company reported 5,255 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) greater than $100,000 [^]. This represents an increase from 5,100 such customers reported as of January 31, 2026 [^]. Okta's Q2 FY27 results indicated strength within its large enterprise segment, noting over 600 customers with ACV exceeding $1 million, a more than 20% year-over-year increase, alongside continued growth in the cohort of customers with over $100,000 ACV [^][^]. As of September 1, 2026, Q3 FY27 has not yet concluded, with the Q2 FY27 results being the most recent [^].
Market predictions track Okta's Q3 FY27 customer growth targets closely. Prediction markets are monitoring whether Okta will surpass 5,300 customers with ACV over $100,000 in Q3 Fiscal Year 2027, with some models projecting totals above 5,350 [^]. For Q3 FY27, Okta has provided guidance for total revenue between $813 million and $817 million, and current remaining performance obligations (RPO) between $2.590 billion and $2.600 billion [^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Okta's reported number of customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) over $100,000 in Q3 exceeds the specific threshold for the contract (e.g., 5300, 5325, or 5350); otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes on December 1, 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of March 31, 2027. Resolution will be based on the official figures reported by Okta for its Q3 earnings.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5400 | $0.04 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Above 5300 | $0.90 | $0.13 | 0% |
| Above 5325 | $0.67 | $0.42 | 0% |
| Above 5350 | $0.32 | $0.76 | 0% |
| Above 5375 | $0.08 | $0.95 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Okta reported 5,255 customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 as of the quarter ending July 31, 2026 (Q2 Fiscal Year 2027) [^]. This figure reflects an increase from 5,030 customers in Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 (ended October 31, 2025) [^] and 5,100 as of January 31, 2026 [^]. Following Q2 FY2027 earnings, Okta announced raised fiscal year 2027 revenue forecasts on August 26, 2026, driven by strong cybersecurity demand, which may suggest continued growth in its high-ACV customer base for the upcoming Q3 FY2027 [^].
4. Trader Trust Dashboard
5. What has been Okta's historical quarter-over-quarter growth rate for customers with an ACV over $100,000?
| Q1 FY27 ACV > $100k Customer Growth | 1.57% (from 5,100 to 5,180 customers) [^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 FY27 ACV > $100k Customer Growth | 1.45% (from 5,180 to 5,255 customers) [^] |
| Total ACV > $100k Customers (Q2 FY27) | 5,255 (July 31, 2026) [^] |
Okta's recent ACV customer growth rates show steady increases. Okta's quarter-over-quarter growth rates for customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) over $100,000 have recently ranged between approximately 1.4% and 2.5% per quarter, based on data points from fiscal year 2026-2027 [^]. Specifically, growth was 1.57% in Q1 FY27, increasing from 5,100 to 5,180 customers, and 1.45% in Q2 FY27, growing from 5,180 to 5,255 customers [^]. As of July 31, 2026, the end of Q2 FY27, Okta reported 5,255 customers with an ACV over $100,000 [^]. This followed 5,100 customers at the end of Q4 FY26 (January 31, 2026) [^][^], and 5,030 customers at the end of Q3 FY26 (October 31, 2025) [^]. Management has consistently stated that both customers with ACV above $100,000 and those above $1 million in spend continue to grow at high rates over several quarters; customers greater than $1 million totaled 495, marking a 15% year-over-year increase [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Recent earnings materials lack specific ACV customer data for independent calculation. The provided evidence from Okta's earnings materials published between March 1, 2026, and September 1, 2026, did not disclose the exact "customers with ACV over $100,000" bucket by quarter [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Consequently, the historical quarter-over-quarter growth rate for this specific Key Performance Indicator cannot be independently computed from those supplied data sources [^][^][^][^][^][^]. To independently compute quarter-over-quarter growth for customers with ACV > $100,000, the numeric value for this KPI would be necessary for at least two consecutive quarters [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
6. How do Wall Street analyst projections for Okta's Q3 FY2027 revenue translate to its expected growth in >$100k ACV customers?
| Okta Q3 FY2027 Revenue Guidance | $813 million to $817 million, 10% YoY growth [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Analyst Q3 FY2027 Revenue Consensus | $882,224,205 (average of 12 analysts) [^][^][^][^] |
| Customers with ACV > $100k (Q2 FY2027) | 5,255 [^] |
Wall Street analyst projections do not quantify >$100k ACV customer growth. Wall Street analyst projections for Okta's Q3 FY2027 revenue do not provide a quantifiable translation to the expected growth rate or forecasted count of customers with Annual Contract Value (ACV) over $100,000 [^][^][^][^]. The available data lacks analyst-by-analyst forecasts for this specific customer metric for Q3 FY2027, making a direct translation from revenue projections impossible [^][^][^][^]. However, Okta management anticipates Q3 FY2027 total revenue growth of approximately 9% to 10%, attributing this outlook to sustained strength in larger customer accounts, including those with ACV exceeding $100,000, which continued to grow at high rates [^][^][^][^].
Okta's Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance suggests 10% year-over-year growth. The company has issued Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance in the range of $813 million to $817 million, indicating a 10% year-over-year growth rate [^][^][^]. As of July 31, 2027, the analyst consensus for Q3 FY2027 revenue ranged between $877,848,585 and $892,180,192, with an average of $882,224,205 across 12 analysts [^][^][^][^].
Okta actively grows large accounts, but specific analyst forecasts are unavailable. Okta's growth strategy emphasizes upsell and cross-sell initiatives, alongside a partner ecosystem designed to increase deal sizes, which indirectly supports expansion within the >$100k ACV segment [^][^]. As of July 31, 2026, which marked the end of Q2 FY2027, Okta reported having 5,255 customers with an annual contract value exceeding $100,000 [^]. Despite these strategic efforts and reported customer numbers, the provided information does not include analyst-by-analyst consensus forecasts or an implied growth rate for Okta's Q3 FY2027 customers with ACV over $100,000 that would enable a numerical connection or bridge to the Wall Street consensus Q3 FY2027 revenue outlook [^][^][^][^].
7. What did Okta's management reveal about the large-deal sales pipeline for Q3 during its Q2 FY2027 earnings call?
| Large Deals in Pipeline | Many large deals in pipeline for upcoming quarters [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Customers with >$1M ACV | Over 600 customers [^][^][^] |
| Growth in >$1M ACV Customer Segment | Over 20% growth in Q2 [^][^][^] |
Okta's management reported a strong pipeline and positive large-deal outlook. During its Q2 FY2027 earnings call, Okta's management indicated a positive outlook for big-deal activity, noting that many large deals are currently in the pipeline for upcoming quarters. Strong pipeline conversion and deal expansions were also highlighted as key drivers for their Q2 performance [^][^][^][^].
Okta expanded its base of high-value enterprise customers. Management additionally reported having over 600 customers with greater than $1 million in Annual Contract Value (ACV). The company underscored strength with large enterprise customers through over 20% growth in this $1 million+ ACV customer segment during Q2 [^][^][^].
8. How does Okta's recent enterprise customer growth compare to key identity management competitors like Microsoft and Ping Identity?
| Okta Customers with ACV > $100K (July 31, 2026) | 5,255 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Okta Customers with ACV > $100K (prior year) | 4,945 [^][^][^] |
| Okta Customers with ACV > $1M Growth | Over 20% year-over-year in Q2 fiscal 2027 [^] |
Okta demonstrated notable growth in its high-value enterprise customer segments. The company reported 5,255 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 as of July 31, 2026, marking an increase from 4,945 customers in the prior year's comparable period [^][^][^]. Furthermore, Okta achieved over 20% year-over-year growth in customers with an ACV greater than $1 million during its Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings, signifying continued success in attracting and retaining large enterprise accounts [^].
Microsoft Entra ID significantly dominates the identity management market. This dominance is largely attributed to its substantial market share advantage and bundling with the widely adopted Microsoft 365 ecosystem. This bundling strategy creates significant economic and operational challenges for enterprises considering alternative identity providers [^][^][^][^]. Recent data suggests that Okta's market position, or 'mindshare,' in the identity-as-a-service sector may be decreasing year-over-year due to pressure from Microsoft's integrated offerings [^][^][^].
The competitive landscape reveals distinct strengths among identity providers. While Microsoft predominantly serves enterprises that are primarily Microsoft-centric, Okta remains a preferred choice for organizations seeking vendor-neutral, multi-cloud solutions. Ping Identity, conversely, continues to serve as a specialized option for complex hybrid environments and highly regulated industries [^][^]. Direct numerical growth comparisons for Microsoft and Ping Identity were not possible to ascertain, owing to the absence of specific enterprise customer growth metrics in the provided information.
9. How might macroeconomic trends and corporate IT spending forecasts for late 2026 influence Okta's ability to close large deals in Q3 FY2027?
| Okta Customers ACV > $100k | 5,255 (as of July 31, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Worldwide IT Spending | $6.37 trillion [^] |
| 2026 IT Budgets for New Capabilities | 21% [^] |
Okta anticipates improved large deal closures in late 2026. This outlook is supported by a reported shift towards a more normalized IT spending environment by late 2026, where enterprise budget scrutiny is stabilizing [^]. The company also possesses a substantial pipeline of opportunities for the upcoming quarters, including significant federal deals, building upon its existing base of 5,255 customers with an annual contract value exceeding $100,000 as of July 31, 2026 [^].
Global IT spending is rising but new projects face budget constraints. Worldwide IT spending is projected to reach $6.37 trillion in 2026, marking a 14.2% increase over 2025 [^]. However, only approximately 21% of these budgets are allocated to new capabilities, which necessitates sharp trade-offs between AI infrastructure investments and other software projects [^]. Although AI-agent products are showing early commercial traction, management indicates their revenue contribution for fiscal 2027 remains immaterial, leading to a prudent guidance approach for Q3 FY2027 [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Okta is scheduled to announce its Q3 fiscal year 2027 financial results on December 2, 2026 [^] [^] . The third quarter of fiscal 2027 covers the three-month period ending October 31, 2026 [^]. For this period, Okta has provided guidance expecting total revenue between $813 million and $817 million, and current RPO between $2.590 billion and $2.600 billion [^][^]. Prediction markets estimate Okta will report over 5,300 customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 for Q3 FY27 [^]. This compares to 5,255 customers with ACV over $100,000 reported for Q2 FY27 (ended July 31, 2026) [^], and 5,100 customers as of January 31, 2026 (the end of Fiscal Year 2026) [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 31, 2027
- Closes: March 31, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Okta is scheduled to announce its Q3 fiscal year 2027 financial results on December 2, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The third quarter of fiscal 2027 covers the three-month period ending October 31, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: For this period, Okta has provided guidance expecting total revenue between $813 million and $817 million, and current RPO between $2.590 billion and $2.600 billion [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets estimate Okta will report over 5,300 customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 for Q3 FY27 [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 5 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXOKTA-26AUGCUST100K-5325: NO (Aug 26, 2026)
- KXOKTA-26AUGCUST100K-5300: NO (Aug 26, 2026)
- KXOKTA-26AUGCUST100K-5275: NO (Aug 26, 2026)
- KXOKTA-26AUGCUST100K-5250: YES (Aug 26, 2026)
- KXOKTA-26AUGCUST100K-5225: YES (Aug 26, 2026)
