Short Answer

Okta is not expected to have over 5400 customers with ACV above $100k in Q3 FY27; achieving this level demands significantly accelerated customer growth beyond recent trends, which the market prices at 3.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market repriced higher following Okta's Q2 fiscal year 2027 earnings report. The release on August 31 detailed growth in the metric central to this market: customers with an annual contract value (ACV) over $100,000. The company reported 5,255 such customers for the quarter ending July 31, 2026, an increase from 5,100 in the prior quarter. This data provides a new baseline and a positive growth trajectory leading into Q3, making the market's resolution target of 5,300 customers appear more attainable.
The upward price movement was supported by management commentary during the earnings call, which highlighted strength within Okta's large enterprise segment. Specifically, the company noted a more than 20% year-over-year increase in customers with ACV exceeding $1 million. The market's entire trading volume of 46 contracts occurred after the release of these results, suggesting the move was a direct reaction to the new information.
  • Okta exceeding 5,300 to 5,375 customers carries 14% model probability, driven by consistent growth.
  • Growth above 5,400 customers requires significantly accelerated trends, unsupported by current evidence.
  • Q3 FY27 results, covering period ending October 31, 2026, announce December 2, 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 5375 7.0% 14.4% Model higher by 7.4pp
Above 5400 3.0% 3.0% Model and market aligned
Above 5300 89.0% 14.4% Market higher by 74.6pp
Above 5325 0.0% 14.4% Model higher by 14.4pp
Above 5350 0.0% 14.4% Model higher by 14.4pp

Current Context

Okta's customer base with over $100k ACV shows consistent growth. As of July 31, 2026, the close of Okta's Q2 Fiscal Year 2027, the company reported 5,255 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) greater than $100,000 [1]. This represents an increase from 5,100 such customers reported as of January 31, 2026 [2]. Okta's Q2 FY27 results indicated strength within its large enterprise segment, noting over 600 customers with ACV exceeding $1 million, a more than 20% year-over-year increase, alongside continued growth in the cohort of customers with over $100,000 ACV [3][4]. As of September 1, 2026, Q3 FY27 has not yet concluded, with the Q2 FY27 results being the most recent [5].
Market predictions track Okta's Q3 FY27 customer growth targets closely. Prediction markets are monitoring whether Okta will surpass 5,300 customers with ACV over $100,000 in Q3 Fiscal Year 2027, with some models projecting totals above 5,350 [6]. For Q3 FY27, Okta has provided guidance for total revenue between $813 million and $817 million, and current remaining performance obligations (RPO) between $2.590 billion and $2.600 billion [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Okta revenue rises to $805M as profit hits $116M | OKTA Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  2. 2okta-20260131sec.gov
  3. 3Okta (OKTA) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Okta (OKTA) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  5. 5Documentsec.gov
  6. 6Okta customers with acv over $100k in Q3kalshi.com
  7. 7Okta Announces Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2027...investor.okta.com
  8. 8Okta announces second quarter fiscal year 2027 financial...okta.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Okta's reported number of customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) over $100,000 in Q3 exceeds the specific threshold for the contract (e.g., 5300, 5325, or 5350); otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes on December 1, 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of March 31, 2027. Resolution will be based on the official figures reported by Okta for its Q3 earnings.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 5300 $0.93 $0.17 89%
Above 5375 $0.12 $0.97 7%
Above 5400 $0.04 $0.99 3%
Above 5325 $0.67 $0.43 0%
Above 5350 $0.33 $0.77 0%

Market Discussion

Okta reported 5,255 customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 as of the quarter ending July 31, 2026 (Q2 Fiscal Year 2027) [1]. This figure reflects an increase from 5,030 customers in Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 (ended October 31, 2025) [2] and 5,100 as of January 31, 2026 [3]. Following Q2 FY2027 earnings, Okta announced raised fiscal year 2027 revenue forecasts on August 26, 2026, driven by strong cybersecurity demand, which may suggest continued growth in its high-ACV customer base for the upcoming Q3 FY2027 [4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1Okta revenue rises to $805M as profit hits $116Mstocktitan.net
  2. 2Okta: Third Quarter 2026 Posted Commentary | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  3. 3okta-20260131sec.gov
  4. 4Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA) Issues Q3 2027 Earnings Guidancemarketbeat.com

4. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Oct 1, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 65 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score29Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score65Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
36Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

3 contracts · worst first · 2 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 540036
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 5300—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 5375—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

3 contracts · worst first · 2 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 5300—
No significant move (6d)

Price was stable over the last 6 days.

Above 5375—
No significant move (7d)

Price was stable over the last 7 days.

Above 5400—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

3 contracts · worst first · 2 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 5300100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 5375100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 5400100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
29Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 36 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 5.0c slippage (~6% of a 88c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

2 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 5300–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (6d)

Price was stable over the last 6 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 5375–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (7d)

Price was stable over the last 7 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 540036Market scoreLiquidity36Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 36
Liquidity
36 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 1, 2026

5. What has been Okta's historical quarter-over-quarter growth rate for customers with an ACV over $100,000?

Q1 FY27 ACV > $100k Customer Growth1.57% (from 5,100 to 5,180 customers) [1]
Q2 FY27 ACV > $100k Customer Growth1.45% (from 5,180 to 5,255 customers) [1]
Total ACV > $100k Customers (Q2 FY27)5,255 (July 31, 2026) [2]
Okta's recent ACV customer growth rates show steady increases. Okta's quarter-over-quarter growth rates for customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) over $100,000 have recently ranged between approximately 1.4% and 2.5% per quarter, based on data points from fiscal year 2026-2027 [1]. Specifically, growth was 1.57% in Q1 FY27, increasing from 5,100 to 5,180 customers, and 1.45% in Q2 FY27, growing from 5,180 to 5,255 customers [1]. As of July 31, 2026, the end of Q2 FY27, Okta reported 5,255 customers with an ACV over $100,000 [2]. This followed 5,100 customers at the end of Q4 FY26 (January 31, 2026) [3][4], and 5,030 customers at the end of Q3 FY26 (October 31, 2025) [5]. Management has consistently stated that both customers with ACV above $100,000 and those above $1 million in spend continue to grow at high rates over several quarters; customers greater than $1 million totaled 495, marking a 15% year-over-year increase [2][3][6][7][8][9][10][11].
Recent earnings materials lack specific ACV customer data for independent calculation. The provided evidence from Okta's earnings materials published between March 1, 2026, and September 1, 2026, did not disclose the exact "customers with ACV over $100,000" bucket by quarter [6][7][8][9][10][11]. Consequently, the historical quarter-over-quarter growth rate for this specific Key Performance Indicator cannot be independently computed from those supplied data sources [6][7][8][9][10][11]. To independently compute quarter-over-quarter growth for customers with ACV > $100,000, the numeric value for this KPI would be necessary for at least two consecutive quarters [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Okta, Inc. (OKTA) Operating Metrics & Breakdownsstockanalysis.com
  2. 2Okta revenue rises to $805M as profit hits $116M | OKTA Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  3. 3March 4, 2026s205.q4cdn.com
  4. 4Okta: Fourth Quarter 2026 Posted Commentary | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  5. 5Okta: Third Quarter 2026 Posted Commentary | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  6. 6OKTA_Q22026, Page: 11Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  7. 7OKTA_Q22026, Page: 6Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  8. 8OKTA_Q12026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  9. 9OKTA_Q12026, Page: 7Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  10. 10www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  11. 11www.marketbeat.comOctagon Agentmarketbeat.com

6. How do Wall Street analyst projections for Okta's Q3 FY2027 revenue translate to its expected growth in >$100k ACV customers?

Okta Q3 FY2027 Revenue Guidance$813 million to $817 million, 10% YoY growth [1][2][3]
Analyst Q3 FY2027 Revenue Consensus$882,224,205 (average of 12 analysts) [4][5][6][7]
Customers with ACV > $100k (Q2 FY2027)5,255 [8]
Wall Street analyst projections do not quantify >$100k ACV customer growth. Wall Street analyst projections for Okta's Q3 FY2027 revenue do not provide a quantifiable translation to the expected growth rate or forecasted count of customers with Annual Contract Value (ACV) over $100,000 [4][5][6][7]. The available data lacks analyst-by-analyst forecasts for this specific customer metric for Q3 FY2027, making a direct translation from revenue projections impossible [4][5][6][7]. However, Okta management anticipates Q3 FY2027 total revenue growth of approximately 9% to 10%, attributing this outlook to sustained strength in larger customer accounts, including those with ACV exceeding $100,000, which continued to grow at high rates [4][5][6][7].
Okta's Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance suggests 10% year-over-year growth. The company has issued Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance in the range of $813 million to $817 million, indicating a 10% year-over-year growth rate [1][2][3]. As of July 31, 2027, the analyst consensus for Q3 FY2027 revenue ranged between $877,848,585 and $892,180,192, with an average of $882,224,205 across 12 analysts [4][5][6][7].
Okta actively grows large accounts, but specific analyst forecasts are unavailable. Okta's growth strategy emphasizes upsell and cross-sell initiatives, alongside a partner ecosystem designed to increase deal sizes, which indirectly supports expansion within the >$100k ACV segment [9][10]. As of July 31, 2026, which marked the end of Q2 FY2027, Okta reported having 5,255 customers with an annual contract value exceeding $100,000 [8]. Despite these strategic efforts and reported customer numbers, the provided information does not include analyst-by-analyst consensus forecasts or an implied growth rate for Okta's Q3 FY2027 customers with ACV over $100,000 that would enable a numerical connection or bridge to the Wall Street consensus Q3 FY2027 revenue outlook [4][5][6][7].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA) Issues Q3 2027 Earnings Guidancemarketbeat.com
  2. 2Okta, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Third Quarter and Full Year of Fiscal 2027 | MarketScreener Canadaca.marketscreener.com
  3. 3Documentsec.gov
  4. 4OKTA_Q22026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  5. 5OKTA_Q22026, Page: 6Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  6. 6OKTA_Q22026, Page: 11Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  7. 7OKTA_Q22026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  8. 8Okta revenue rises to $805M as profit hits $116M | OKTA Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  9. 9Okta (OKTA) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  10. 10Okta (OKTA) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com

7. What did Okta's management reveal about the large-deal sales pipeline for Q3 during its Q2 FY2027 earnings call?

Large Deals in PipelineMany large deals in pipeline for upcoming quarters [1][2][3][4]
Customers with >$1M ACVOver 600 customers [1][2][3]
Growth in >$1M ACV Customer SegmentOver 20% growth in Q2 [1][2][3]
Okta's management reported a strong pipeline and positive large-deal outlook. During its Q2 FY2027 earnings call, Okta's management indicated a positive outlook for big-deal activity, noting that many large deals are currently in the pipeline for upcoming quarters. Strong pipeline conversion and deal expansions were also highlighted as key drivers for their Q2 performance [1][2][3][4].
Okta expanded its base of high-value enterprise customers. Management additionally reported having over 600 customers with greater than $1 million in Annual Contract Value (ACV). The company underscored strength with large enterprise customers through over 20% growth in this $1 million+ ACV customer segment during Q2 [1][2][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Okta (OKTA) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Okta (OKTA) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  3. 3Okta Reports Q2 2027 Results: Full Earnings Call Transcriptbenzinga.com
  4. 4Okta Reports Q2 2027 Results: Full Earnings Call Transcriptdaytraders.com

8. How does Okta's recent enterprise customer growth compare to key identity management competitors like Microsoft and Ping Identity?

Okta Customers with ACV > $100K (July 31, 2026)5,255 [1][2][3]
Okta Customers with ACV > $100K (prior year)4,945 [1][2][3]
Okta Customers with ACV > $1M GrowthOver 20% year-over-year in Q2 fiscal 2027 [4]
Okta demonstrated notable growth in its high-value enterprise customer segments. The company reported 5,255 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 as of July 31, 2026, marking an increase from 4,945 customers in the prior year's comparable period [1][2][3]. Furthermore, Okta achieved over 20% year-over-year growth in customers with an ACV greater than $1 million during its Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings, signifying continued success in attracting and retaining large enterprise accounts [4].
Microsoft Entra ID significantly dominates the identity management market. This dominance is largely attributed to its substantial market share advantage and bundling with the widely adopted Microsoft 365 ecosystem. This bundling strategy creates significant economic and operational challenges for enterprises considering alternative identity providers [5][6][7][8]. Recent data suggests that Okta's market position, or 'mindshare,' in the identity-as-a-service sector may be decreasing year-over-year due to pressure from Microsoft's integrated offerings [7][9][8].
The competitive landscape reveals distinct strengths among identity providers. While Microsoft predominantly serves enterprises that are primarily Microsoft-centric, Okta remains a preferred choice for organizations seeking vendor-neutral, multi-cloud solutions. Ping Identity, conversely, continues to serve as a specialized option for complex hybrid environments and highly regulated industries [10][8]. Direct numerical growth comparisons for Microsoft and Ping Identity were not possible to ascertain, owing to the absence of specific enterprise customer growth metrics in the provided information.
Sources (10)
  1. 1Okta revenue rises to $805M as profit hits $116M | OKTA Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  2. 2March 4, 2026s205.q4cdn.com
  3. 3Okta: Fourth Quarter 2026 Posted Commentary | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  4. 4Okta (OKTA) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  5. 5Okta to Entra ID Migration: Microsoft 365 Organizations | Netwovennetwoven.com
  6. 6Okta vs Azure AD vs Ping Identity (2026): Best Identity management? - StackCoaststackcoast.com
  7. 7Okta vs Microsoft Entra ID vs Ping Identity: Zero Trust IAM Compared for Enterprise | Cybersecurity Essentialcybersecurityessential.com
  8. 8Okta Vs Microsoft Entra Vs Ping Identity (2026)cipherssecurity.com
  9. 9Microsoft Entra ID vs. Okta Platform vs. Ping Identity Platformpeerspot.com
  10. 10Workforce Identity Zero Trust 2026: Okta vs Entra vs Pingdecryptiondigest.com

9. How might macroeconomic trends and corporate IT spending forecasts for late 2026 influence Okta's ability to close large deals in Q3 FY2027?

Okta Customers ACV > $100k5,255 (as of July 31, 2026) [1]
2026 Worldwide IT Spending$6.37 trillion [2]
2026 IT Budgets for New Capabilities21% [2]
Okta anticipates improved large deal closures in late 2026. This outlook is supported by a reported shift towards a more normalized IT spending environment by late 2026, where enterprise budget scrutiny is stabilizing [3]. The company also possesses a substantial pipeline of opportunities for the upcoming quarters, including significant federal deals, building upon its existing base of 5,255 customers with an annual contract value exceeding $100,000 as of July 31, 2026 [1].
Global IT spending is rising but new projects face budget constraints. Worldwide IT spending is projected to reach $6.37 trillion in 2026, marking a 14.2% increase over 2025 [2]. However, only approximately 21% of these budgets are allocated to new capabilities, which necessitates sharp trade-offs between AI infrastructure investments and other software projects [2]. Although AI-agent products are showing early commercial traction, management indicates their revenue contribution for fiscal 2027 remains immaterial, leading to a prudent guidance approach for Q3 FY2027 [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Okta revenue rises to $805M as profit hits $116M | OKTA Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  2. 2IT Budget Statistics 2026: $6.37 Trillion, and the 21% That Actually Buys Something New - Axis Intelligenceaxis-intelligence.com
  3. 3Okta (OKTA) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  4. 4[OKTA Q2 2026 Earnings Call] Okta's Record Q2 Bookings and AI Momentum Push 2027 Revenue Guidance to 10-11% Growth — BigGo Financefinance.biggo.com
  5. 5Okta raises FY27 EPS and revenue guidance after Q2 earnings beatscanx.trade

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Okta is scheduled to announce its Q3 fiscal year 2027 financial results on December 2, 2026 [1][2]. The third quarter of fiscal 2027 covers the three-month period ending October 31, 2026 [3]. For this period, Okta has provided guidance expecting total revenue between $813 million and $817 million, and current RPO between $2.590 billion and $2.600 billion [3][2]. Prediction markets estimate Okta will report over 5,300 customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 for Q3 FY27 [4]. This compares to 5,255 customers with ACV over $100,000 reported for Q2 FY27 (ended July 31, 2026) [5], and 5,100 customers as of January 31, 2026 (the end of Fiscal Year 2026) [6].
Okta's management is pursuing a prudent approach to forward guidance and is accelerating the transition of its professional services business to partners, which is expected to create a revenue headwind in that specific segment [3][2].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 31, 2027
  • Closes: March 31, 2027
Sources (6)
  1. 1Okta (OKTA) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reportstipranks.com
  2. 2Okta Announces Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2027...investor.okta.com
  3. 3Documentsec.gov
  4. 4Okta customers with acv over $100k in Q3kalshi.com
  5. 5Okta revenue rises to $805M as profit hits $116M | OKTA Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
  6. 6okta-20260131sec.gov

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 5 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXOKTA-26AUGCUST100K-5325: NO (Aug 26, 2026)
  • KXOKTA-26AUGCUST100K-5300: NO (Aug 26, 2026)
  • KXOKTA-26AUGCUST100K-5275: NO (Aug 26, 2026)
  • KXOKTA-26AUGCUST100K-5250: YES (Aug 26, 2026)
  • KXOKTA-26AUGCUST100K-5225: YES (Aug 26, 2026)