Short Answer

Workiva is likely to report above 2760 customers with over $100k ACV in Q3 2026, driven by consistent historical Q2-to-Q3 growth and current large-account momentum; the market prices this outcome at 94% likelihood.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price has remained static at a high probability due to Workiva's Q2 2026 financial results, which were released prior to the market's inception. The company reported having 2,690 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) over $100,000 as of June 30, 2026. This figure is just 70 customers short of the 2,760 threshold required for this market to resolve to YES.
The high probability of 94.0% reflects the market's assessment of Workiva's recent growth trajectory. The Q2 figure represented a 20% year-over-year increase, indicating strong momentum in acquiring large customers. The market has priced in the high likelihood that the company will add the required 70 net new customers in this category during Q3. The complete lack of price movement and zero traded volume since the market opened indicates that no new information has emerged to challenge this initial assessment.
  • Since last update (~12h): Outcome "Above 2760" saw our model rise +93.0pp (model_led), flipping the edge.
  • Our model significantly increased probabilities for outcomes up to "Above 2840" by ~+19pp (model_led), widening the edge.
  • For "Above 2860", our model's probability increased +4.8pp (model_led), further widening the edge.
  • The overall edge decreased -1.0pp to 1.0pp, while the confidence score remained unchanged.
  • Workiva customers Above 2760 is supported by consistent Q2-Q3 growth patterns.
  • Strong large-account momentum and AI strategy support exceeding prior Q2 levels.

Current Context

Workiva saw strong large-customer growth and revenue in Q2 2026. As of June 30, 2026, customers with an annual contract value (ACV) above $100,000 totaled 2,690, an increase of 20% year over year from 2,241 [1][2][3]. The company also reported 656 customers with ACV above $300,000 and 276 above $500,000 [1][2][3]. For Q2 2026, total revenue reached $255.3 million, up 18.6% year over year, with subscription and support revenue at $236.3 million, an increase of 19.2% [1][3]. These large accounts drove a significant portion of revenue, with customers above $100,000 ACV generating 80.8% of Q2 subscription and support revenue. The $300,000+ and $500,000+ cohorts contributed 45.1% and 29.9% respectively [1][3][4]. Management attributed momentum in large contracts to both customer expansion and new multi-solution logos, identifying AI, connected trusted data, governance, and auditability as core demand drivers for the Office of the CFO [4].
Q3 2026 results release approaches with an analyst forecast near 2,800. Workiva is scheduled to release its Q3 2026 financial results after market close on November 5, 2026, with an earnings call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern; the quarter concluded on September 30, 2026 [5]. Management's Q3 2026 guidance projects total revenue between $260 million and $262 million, a non-GAAP operating margin of 17.0%-17.5%, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.79-$0.82 [2][3]. For the full fiscal year 2026, revenue guidance is $1.040 billion-$1.044 billion with an approximate 18% non-GAAP operating margin [2][3]. An analyst base-case forecast for Q3 2026 estimates 2,780-2,820 customers with ACV above $100,000, centering near 2,800. This estimate extrapolates from the Q2 figure of 2,690 and the recent 20% year-over-year growth in this cohort, representing an analyst's projection, not company guidance [1][2][3][6][4]. The latest reported Q3 historical benchmark is Q3 2025, with 2,372 customers above $100,000 ACV [7][8].
The prediction market for Q3 >$100k ACV customers shows varied probability thresholds. A market on Kalshi asks whether Workiva's Q3 2026 customer count above $100,000 ACV will exceed specified thresholds [6]. A recent snapshot indicated probabilities of 82% for exceeding 2,780 customers, 53% for exceeding 2,800, and 25% for exceeding 2,820 [6]. Trading for this market is set to conclude on November 6 at 4:00 p.m. Eastern [6]. While a market-analysis page suggests the contract resolves YES above 2,800 and describes current market expectation above 2,760, this conflicts with the threshold ladder shown in the Kalshi snapshot. Authoritative contract terms and live odds should be verified directly prior to any trading activity [6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1wk-20260630sec.gov
  2. 2Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.workiva.com
  3. 3WK - Workiva Inc Class A Earnings Reports, Summaries & Call Transcripts | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  4. 4EarningsCall · WK Q2 2026earningscall.biz
  5. 5User | woonsocketcall.com - Workiva Sets Date for Third Quarter 2026 Financial Release and Conference Callbusiness.woonsocketcall.com
  6. 6Workiva customers over $100 k ACV in Q3kalshi.com
  7. 7Form 8-K for Workiva INC filed 11/05/2025investor.workiva.com
  8. 8Workiva Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results | Workivainvestor.workiva.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 October 22, 2026: 72.0pp spike

Price increased from 5.0% to 77.0%

Outcome: Above 2780

What happened: No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives concerning Workiva's Q3 customer growth was identified on October 22, 2026. The primary driver of the prediction market spike appears to be investor commentary and trade-idea claims, which became available on that date [1][2]. This commentary emphasized Workiva's margin expansion ahead of plan, strong revenue growth, and AI-driven upsell potential, which likely led market participants to anticipate an increase in high-value customers [1][2]. The social media was irrelevant based on the available information.

📈 October 15, 2026: 52.0pp spike

Price increased from 25.0% to 77.0%

Outcome: Above 2780

What happened: The provided research does not identify any social media activity that caused a 52.0 percentage point price spike in Workiva's prediction market on October 15, 2026 [3][4]. Workiva shares instead saw a roughly 6.29% increase that day, which was attributed primarily to a broad software market rebound, falling Treasury yields, and positive sector sentiment, rather than company-specific news or a viral social media narrative [5][6][7][8][9]. Therefore, social media appears to have been irrelevant to the reported prediction market movement.
Sources (9)
  1. 1Workiva Stock: Margins Are A Year Ahead Of Plan, The Stock Isn't (NYSE:WK) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  2. 2Workiva: Margins Running Ahead of Plan — Buy the Re-rate into AI Adoptiontradevae.com
  3. 3Workiva customers over $100k ACV in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4Workiva customers over $100k ACV in Q3...4conservative.com
  5. 5Workiva rises 6.29% in Thursday's sessionglobalbankingandfinance.com
  6. 6Adobe, HubSpot, Workday, Asana, and Workiva Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Knowfinance.yahoo.com
  7. 7FinancialContent - Adobe, HubSpot, Workday, Asana, and Workiva Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Knowmarkets.financialcontent.com
  8. 8Behavioral Patterns of WK and Institutional Flowsstocks.tradingcharts.com
  9. 9WK Shorts Rebuild as Earnings Loom | ORTEX Newsortex.news

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "YES" if Workiva's reported number of customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) over $100,000 for Q3 is greater than 2800. Conversely, it resolves to "NO" if this customer count is 2800 or fewer. Trading for this market ends on November 5 at 4:00 PM EST, with no special settlement conditions described beyond the reported customer data.

Market Discussion

The prediction market for "Workiva customers over $100k ACV in Q3" resolves against Q3 2026 results, scheduled for November 6, 2026 [1]. Workiva reported 2,690 customers with over $100,000 ACV as of June 30, 2026 [2][3]. To clear the lowest market threshold of 2,760 customers, 70 net additions are required from Q2 2026, which market analysis viewed as highly probable given recent large-contract growth [4]. While market prices imply an 82% probability above 2,780 customers, reaching 2,820 has only a 25% probability, and social commentary on the stock remains mixed [1][5][6][7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1Workiva customers over $100 k ACV in Q3kalshi.com
  2. 2WK - Workiva Inc Class A Earnings Reports, Summaries & Call Transcripts | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  3. 3Workiva (WK) Earnings releases · Euler.capitaleuler.capital
  4. 4Workiva’s large-contract growth has a renewal gatebtw.media
  5. 5Workiva customers over $100k ACV in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  6. 6Workiva (WK) Reddit Mentions & Stock Sentimentadanos.com
  7. 7Workiva Inc. Class A Stock Forum (NYSE:WK) – TradingView Mindstradingview.com

5. What does Workiva's historical sequential growth in >$100k ACV customers from Q2 to Q3 suggest for the Q3 2026 outcome?

Projected Q3 2026 Customers2,800-2,850 [1]
Q2 2026 Baseline Customers2,690 [1]
Avg Quarterly Net Addition109 [2][3][1]
Workiva's Q3 2026 >$100k ACV customer count projects strong growth. Based on a Q2 2026 baseline of 2,690 customers, Workiva is projected to reach approximately 2,800-2,850 >$100k ACV customers for Q3 2026 [1]. This projection carefully considers various historical growth patterns observed in previous quarters [1].
Historical data reveals consistent sequential growth in large customers. Workiva has consistently demonstrated sequential growth in >$100k ACV customers from Q2 to Q3. Notable increases include 131 net additions in Q3 2025 and 162 net additions in Q3 2024 [2][3]. Over a broader period, from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026, the average quarterly net addition was approximately 109 customers [2][3][1].
Applying historical trends informs the Q3 2026 customer projection. Applying these historical trends, an increase similar to the 131 customers seen in Q3 2025 would lead to an estimated 2,821 customers, while mirroring the 162-customer increase from Q3 2024 would suggest 2,852 customers [1]. Using the multi-quarter average of 109 additions results in approximately 2,799 customers [1]. Although large-account momentum remains strong, sequential additions have moderated, indicating that future acceleration should not be assumed without further evidence [2][3]. The final prediction market range of 2,800-2,850 customers, with a central estimate around 2,820, aligns with market expectations [1].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Workiva Inc. (WK) Stock Price, News & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
  2. 2Workiva (WK) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  3. 3Workiva Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2025 Financial Resultsnewsroom.workiva.com

6. How could Workiva's strategic focus on AI and connected data platforms impact new large-contract signings in Q3 2026?

Customers above $300k ACV656 (as of June 30) [1]
Customers above $500k ACV276 (as of June 30) [1]
Q3 2026 Net Retention111% [1]
Workiva's AI and connected data strategy aims to boost large contract signings. The company anticipates a positive influence on Q3 2026 large-contract signings through this strategic focus. By leveraging agentic AI and premium-tier packaging, Workiva intends to secure larger initial contracts and elevate existing customers beyond the $100,000 ACV threshold by integrating finance, risk, audit, and sustainability workflows [2]. The AI strategy is specifically designed for monetization, incorporating advanced AI features into premium tiers and utilizing a value-based pricing model [3].
Enterprise AI adoption complexities may delay Q3 2026 large contract signings. The timing for these Q3 2026 signings faces potential delays due to the intricate implementation processes, complexities of enterprise AI adoption, and elongated procurement cycles [4]. Consequently, AI is initially expected to contribute more to expansions among existing customers than to a significant influx of new customers surpassing the $100,000 ACV mark [4].
Despite potential delays, Workiva boasts strong enterprise customer momentum. The company entered Q3 2026 with considerable momentum in its larger enterprise cohorts, reporting 656 customers above $300,000 ACV and 276 above $500,000 ACV as of June 30 [1]. Furthermore, a 111% net retention for Q3 2026 suggests that AI-led expansion can effectively boost contract value, even if new customer additions at high ACV thresholds are initially slower [1].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.workiva.com
  2. 2Workiva customers over $100k ACV in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  3. 3Workiva (WK) Transcript: Investor Day 2026stockanalysis.com
  4. 4Workiva Inc. (WK) Stock Price, News & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com

7. How does Workiva's recent large-account customer growth compare to that of key 'Office of the CFO' software competitors like BlackLine?

Workiva Customers > $100k ACV (June 30, 2026)2,690 (up 20% YoY) [1][2]
Workiva Customers > $300k ACV (June 30, 2026)656 (up 34% YoY) [1][2]
Workiva Q2 2026 Net Revenue Retention111% (vs. BlackLine 102%) [3]
Workiva shows strong large-account customer growth year-over-year. As of June 30, 2026, Workiva significantly expanded its large-account customer base. The number of customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 increased by 20% to reach 2,690. Even higher growth rates were observed in larger customer cohorts: those with ACV above $300,000 rose by 34% to 656, and customers surpassing $500,000 ACV grew by 33% to 276 [1][2].
Workiva appears to outperform competitors on key expansion metrics. While direct comparable large-account customer growth figures for BlackLine are not available in the provided facts, Workiva demonstrates stronger performance in comparable expansion and retention indicators. Workiva reported a Net Revenue Retention (NRR) of 111% for Q2 2026. This figure is higher than BlackLine's reported 102% in a comparative source, and BlackLine's latest available data separately shows 104% NRR for FY2027 Q1 [3].
Future growth predictions for Workiva suggest continued expansion. For the Q3 2026 prediction market, a resolution of YES requires Workiva's customer count with over $100,000 ACV to exceed 2,800, which necessitates at least 111 sequential net additions from the reported 2,690 baseline [1]. Available market estimates imply a Q3 2026 count of approximately 2,802, with a middle-half range of 2,785–2,820, although Workiva did not provide specific guidance for this metric [1][4]. As of October 24, 2026, the provided information does not include Workiva's actual Q3 2026 earnings release or verified final customer count, therefore the prediction market outcome cannot yet be confirmed [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.workiva.com
  2. 2WK - Workiva Inc Class A Earnings Reports, Summaries &...morningstar.com
  3. 3BlackLine NRR: 104% · FY2027-Q1 | Cust - cust.cocust.co
  4. 4Workiva Inc. (WK) Stock Price, News & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
  5. 5Workiva customers over $100k ACV in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

8. Beyond official filings, what alternative data sources from Q3 2026 could provide leading indicators for Workiva's enterprise sales momentum?

Primary Indicator FocusExpansion signals from alternative data sources [1]
Key Monitoring SignalsSales-hiring, employee movement, customer and partner activities [1]
Indicator Weighting GuidanceHiring and customer/partner evidence weighted more heavily than investor sentiment [2][1][3]
To assess Workiva's enterprise sales momentum in Q3 2026, alternative data provides leading indicators. Focusing on expansion signals, these sources include key monitoring areas such as sales-hiring and employee movement, alongside customer and partner activities [1]. A robust alternative-data dashboard for Q3 2026 emphasizes signals like enterprise job openings at prospective customers mentioning Workiva, and review and implementation activity on platforms such as G2 and TrustRadius [1].
Other data points and important considerations enhance sales momentum assessment. Further useful alternative data points encompass partner and alliance activity, customer-conference participation, job-posting velocity, employee reviews, and web traffic or product-interest signals [3]. Additional indicators for Q3 2026 involve procurement and RFP traces, public contract signals, and channel or reseller commentary [1][3]. While review volume, new enterprise references, and implementation commentary from sources like G2 can signal demand, it is important to note that reviews can be noisy and may lag behind actual contracts [4]. These indicators are directional and require triangulation rather than being treated as direct customer counts [3]. Although the market itself offers a real-time sentiment indicator reflecting trader expectations, hiring and customer/partner evidence should be weighted more heavily than investor sentiment when evaluating Workiva's sales momentum [2][1][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Form 10-Q for Workiva INC filed 05/01/2025investor.workiva.com
  2. 2Workiva customers over $100k ACV in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  3. 3Kalshi Markets: Fry Endorsement, Klobuchar's Seat, Dieselpredictionnewsnetwork.com
  4. 4My Honest Take on the 8 Best Financial Close Softwarelearn.g2.com

9. What are sell-side analyst expectations for Workiva's related KPIs, like net retention rate and billings growth, in their Q3 2026 forecasts?

Latest Net Retention Rate111% (as of June 30, 2026) [1][2]
Prior-Year Q3 Net Retention Rate113.6% (as of September 30, 2025) [1][2]
Q3 2026 Est. Customers > $100K ACV2,802 (median) [3]
Public sell-side consensus estimates for key Q3 2026 metrics are unavailable. Verifiable public sell-side consensus estimates for Workiva's Q3 2026 net retention rate or billings growth were not found, indicating these specific KPIs should be considered unprovided [1]. However, a market-implied estimate for Workiva customers with over $100,000 in Annual Contract Value (ACV) in Q3 2026 suggests a median of 2,802. The middle-half range for this estimate is 2,785-2,820, with broader estimates spanning 2,740-2,880 [3].
Workiva's recent reported net retention rate stood at 111%. The company's latest reported net retention rate was 111% as of June 30, 2026 [1][2]. For historical context, the prior-year Q3 filing showed a net retention rate of 113.6% as of September 30, 2025 [1][2]. While Workiva did not publish a specific Q3 2026 forecast for customers with ACV exceeding $100,000, its disclosed Q3 2026 revenue guidance was between $260 million and $262 million [1].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.workiva.com
  2. 2wk-20250930sec.gov
  3. 3Workiva Inc. (WK) Stock Price, News & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Q3 2026 earnings release is scheduled after market close on Thursday, November 5, 2026, with the conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern [1][2]. The principal prediction-market resolution metric is the company-reported number of customers with ACV above $100,000 as of September 30 [3][4][1]. As of Q2 2026 (June 30), Workiva had 2,690 customers with ACV above $100,000, representing a 20.0% increase from the prior year [3][5][1]. The count increased from 2,575 in Q1 2026 to 2,690 in Q2 [3][6]. A Q3 estimate for the $100k+ customer cohort is above 2,760, with a modeled range of approximately 2,760–2,850, although Workiva provides no formal Q3 customer-count guidance [3][6].
Potential bullish catalysts include continued growth in large-account penetration, expansion of the $300k+ and $500k+ cohorts, stable retention, operating leverage, and share buybacks [3][7][4]. The $100k+ cohort generated 80.8% of Q2 subscription-and-support revenue, up from 76.3% in Q2 2025 [3][5]. Q2 net retention was 110.5%, with gross retention at 97.3% [3][5].
Conversely, potential bearish catalysts involve slowing net retention, weaker renewal or expansion activity, a margin miss, and uncertainty regarding how Sustain.Life renewals affect reported ACV metrics [3][7][4]. Company Q3 2026 guidance includes a GAAP operating margin of 4.2%–4.8% and a non-GAAP operating margin of 17.0%–17.5% [8][9][10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 06, 2027
  • Closes: March 06, 2027
Sources (10)
  1. 1Workiva Sets Date for Third Quarter 2026 Financial Release and Conference Callinvestor.workiva.com
  2. 2Workiva Q3 2026 Earnings Date & Estimatesmarketbeat.com
  3. 3wk-20260630sec.gov
  4. 4Workiva’s large-contract growth has a renewal gatebtw.media
  5. 5Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.workiva.com
  6. 6Form 8-K for Workiva INC filed 05/05/2026investor.workiva.com
  7. 7Workiva — Investor Day (September 2026) | 6ix6ix.com
  8. 8WK - Workiva Inc Class A Earnings Reports, Summaries & Call Transcripts | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  9. 9Workiva Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Third Quarter Ending September 30, 2026 and Year Ending December 31, 2026 | MarketScreener Indiain.marketscreener.com
  10. 10https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/workiva-nysewk-updates-q3-2026-earnings-guidance-2026-08-04/marketbeat.com