Workiva customers over $100k ACV in Q3
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Workiva to have above 2760 customers with ACV over $100k in Q3 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market saw a near-instantaneous repricing after its launch. The contract opened at a 1.0% YES probability on August 12, 2026, and immediately jumped to 91.0% the next day. It has since consolidated in a narrow range between 92.0% and 93.0%. The price action established a floor around 91.0% with no subsequent tests of lower levels.
The price surge was a direct reaction to Workiva's Q2 2026 earnings report, announced on August 4. The company disclosed 2,690 customers with over $100,000 in annual contract value as of June 30. This figure is just 70 customers short of the 2,760 required for the contract to resolve to YES. The market's sharp upward correction reflects the assimilation of this public data, which makes the Q3 target highly probable based on recent growth trends.
Total traded volume is zero. The price movements reflect algorithmic or manual adjustments, not peer-to-peer trading. This lack of volume means the high 92.0% probability has not been validated by capital flows. While the chart implies a strong consensus for a YES resolution based on fundamental data, there is no evidence of market participation to confirm this sentiment.
- Above 2760 customers: A 2% model probability reflects average historical growth rates.
- Above 2780 customers also holds a 2% probability, aligning with past additions.
- Strategic partnerships and sales hiring signal continued, moderate customer expansion.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2760 | 94.0% | 2.0% | Market higher by 92.0pp |
| Above 2780 | 0.0% | 1.5% | Model higher by 1.5pp |
| Above 2800 | 0.0% | 1.0% | Model higher by 1.0pp |
| Above 2820 | 0.0% | 0.7% | Model higher by 0.7pp |
| Above 2840 | 0.0% | 0.4% | Model higher by 0.4pp |
Current Context
Workiva reported strong Q2 growth, guiding for continued Q3 expansion. As of June 30, 2026, the company recorded 2,690 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) exceeding $100,000, a 20% year-over-year increase [^][^][^][^]. Total revenue for Q2 2026 reached $255 million, an increase of 19% year-over-year [^][^]. For Q3 2026, Workiva projects revenue between $260 million and $262 million, with a non-GAAP operating margin target of 17.0–17.5% [^][^].
A prediction market centers on Workiva's Q3 customer count. Workiva's Q3 2026 financial results are not yet public as of August 13, 2026; the quarter ends on September 30, 2026 [^][^][^]. A Kalshi prediction market is active regarding whether Workiva will report more than 2,800 customers with ACV over $100,000 in Q3 2026 [^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 12, 2026: 90.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 91.0%
Outcome: Above 2760
What happened: The primary driver of the price movement was likely Workiva's Q2 2026 financial results, announced on August 4, 2026 [^][^]. The report revealed 2,690 customers with an ACV greater than $100,000 as of June 30, 2026, representing 20% year-over-year growth in this segment [^][^]. This positive performance, coupled with a shift to GAAP profitability and new AI product launches driving positive stock momentum through mid-August [^][^], likely led market participants to anticipate continued strong growth, projecting the Q3 customer count to surpass the "Above 2760" threshold. There is no evidence of specific social media activity or market structure factors as primary drivers.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi prediction market resolves YES if the number of Workiva customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) over $100k in Q3 is greater than 2800. Conversely, it resolves NO if that number is 2800 or less. Trading for this market ends on November 6, 4:00 PM EST. The provided content does not detail any special settlement conditions.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2760 | $0.98 | $0.09 | 94% |
| Above 2780 | $0.87 | $0.22 | 0% |
| Above 2800 | $0.58 | $0.51 | 0% |
| Above 2820 | $0.30 | $0.79 | 0% |
| Above 2840 | $0.14 | $0.95 | 0% |
| Above 2860 | $0.08 | $0.99 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of June 30, 2026, Workiva reported 2,690 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) exceeding $100,000, which represented a 20% increase from the prior year [^][^][^]. While no specific customer count guidance for Q3 2026 is provided, Workiva announced strong Q2 2026 financial results that surpassed revenue and EPS estimates, leading to positive analyst sentiment regarding its operational efficiency and margin targets [^][^][^].
5. Trust Index
6. What is the consensus among financial analysts regarding Workiva's expected growth in high-value customers for Q3 2026?
| Q3 2026 ACV $100K+ Customer Forecast | Not provided [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance | $260M - $262M [^][^][^] |
| ACV $100K+ Customers (Q2 2026) | 2,690 [^][^][^] |
Financial analysts have not provided a specific quantitative consensus forecast regarding Workiva's customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 for Q3 2026 [^] [^] [^] . Instead, the company's guidance for this period concentrates on broader financial metrics. Workiva projects total revenue for Q3 2026 to range between $260 million and $262 million, along with guidance for its non-GAAP operating margin [^][^][^].
Workiva prioritizes attracting and expanding high-value customer relationships strategically. Despite the absence of a direct numerical prediction for future ACV $100,000+ customers, Workiva's management emphasized a strategic focus on attracting larger, higher-value clients and expanding existing relationships during the Q2 2026 earnings call [^][^]. This strategic direction suggests an ongoing positive trend within this specific customer segment [^][^]. As of the close of Q2 on June 30, 2026, Workiva reported a total of 2,690 customers with an ACV greater than $100,000 [^][^][^].
7. What strategic initiatives or major partnerships announced by Workiva are positioned to impact large customer acquisition in Q3 2026?
| EcoVadis Partnership Launch | May 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Target Deal Value | 6-figure multi-solution deals [^][^] |
| IPO Customer Acquisition Window | 12-18 months prior to IPO [^] |
Workiva announced a key strategic partnership with EcoVadis in May 2026. This collaboration integrates Scope 3 supply chain carbon emission data directly into the Workiva platform, specifically designed to drive large-enterprise adoption for sustainability and regulatory compliance [^]. This initiative is positioned to attract major customers seeking comprehensive solutions for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) reporting and adherence to evolving regulations.
Workiva's strategy is increasingly focused on acquiring large customers through multi-solution, 6-figure deals from the outset [^] [^] . Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. The company leverages its position within the private-to-public journey, often securing financial reporting and controls business 12-18 months prior to an IPO [^]. Additionally, Workiva employs a co-sell model with regional advisory firms and global consulting partners, which has proven successful in landing larger multi-solution new logos and driving high-value contract growth in sectors such as private equity and global financial services [^][^].
8. How does Workiva's rate of adding large enterprise customers compare to key competitor BlackLine's performance in recent quarters?
| Workiva $100k+ ACV Customers | 2,690 (Q2 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Workiva $100k+ ACV Customer Growth | 20% year-over-year (Q2 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
| Net Revenue Retention (Q2 2026) | Workiva 111%, BlackLine 102% [^][^][^][^] |
Workiva demonstrates robust growth in its large enterprise customer base. Workiva reported a 20% year-over-year increase in customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) over $100,000, reaching a total of 2,690 as of Q2 2026 [^][^][^][^]. The company also showed substantial expansion within higher ACV cohorts, with customers over $300,000 ACV growing 34% year-over-year and those over $500,000 ACV increasing 33% year-over-year in Q2 2026 [^][^]. This performance indicates accelerating growth and consistent acquisition and expansion success within its large enterprise segment [^][^].
BlackLine's enterprise customer growth shows signs of deceleration. In contrast, BlackLine does not disclose a direct comparable count of customers with an ACV over $100,000 [^][^][^][^]. BlackLine instead reported 721 customers with over $250,000 Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and 90 customers with over $1 million ARR as of Q2 2026 [^][^][^][^]. The company's recent enterprise customer performance has been characterized by decelerating top-line growth, remaining in the 7-9% range, alongside extended deal cycles, which are 40 to 45 days longer than previous periods [^][^].
Workiva maintains stronger large enterprise growth and retention compared to BlackLine. Overall, Workiva indicates stronger growth and retention in its large enterprise customer base compared to BlackLine's recent performance [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This is further supported by Workiva's net revenue retention (NRR) rate of 111% in Q2 2026, which surpasses BlackLine's NRR of 102% for the same period [^][^][^][^]. Workiva's higher NRR reflects greater success in expanding revenue from its existing enterprise customers [^][^][^][^].
9. What alternative datasets, such as hiring trends for sales roles, are available to provide leading indicators of Workiva's Q3 2026 performance?
| Current Sales Job Postings | 98 Workiva sales jobs visible on LinkedIn [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Sales Hiring Focus | Roles span Sales Development Representative, Account Development Representative, Account Executive / Senior Account Executive, Manager of Inside Sales, and Solution Sales Executive – Governance, Risk, and Compliance [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Institutional Ownership Change | First Trust Advisors LP increased Workiva position in Q1 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Workiva's sales hiring activity serves as a key leading indicator for Workiva's Q3 2026 performance, particularly concerning customers with over $100k Annual Contract Value (ACV). The company is actively posting sales positions, with 98 roles visible on LinkedIn, including Sales Development Representative, Account Development Representative, and Account Executive, which suggests a strategic focus on both pipeline generation and expanding quota-carrying coverage [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This aligns with management commentary emphasizing the strategy to "hire motivated sales people" possessing enterprise software sales experience, thus confirming ongoing investment in go-to-market execution [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This sales hiring momentum is considered the most valuable leading indicator for larger ACV customers in Q3 2026, as it typically underpins the generation of new pipeline and broadens enterprise deal coverage [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Market and ownership signals offer additional insights into investor sentiment, although they are not direct operating key performance indicators. Examples of these signals include institutional activity, such as First Trust Advisors LP increasing its Workiva position in Q1 2026, while Pembroke Management simultaneously trimmed its shares [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. It is important to note that the provided data does not include the specific count of customers over $100k ACV for Q3 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
10. Based on Workiva's performance from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026, what has been the average quarterly net addition of customers with >$100k ACV?
| Average quarterly net additions (>100k ACV customers) | 109 customers (Q3 2024 to Q2 2026) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Customers with >100k ACV (Q3 2024) | 1,926 [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Customers with >100k ACV (Q2 2026) | 2,690 [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Workiva significantly increased its high-value customer base from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026. During this period, the company's customer count with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 grew substantially from 1,926 in Q3 2024 to 2,690 by Q2 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This expansion represents an average quarterly net addition of approximately 109 high-value customers [^][^][^][^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Workiva's Q3 2026 earnings release is projected for November 4, 2026 [^] . For Q3 2026, the company provided revenue guidance of $260 million to $262 million, with a GAAP operating margin expected between 4.2% and 4.8% [^]. As of June 30, 2026, Workiva had 2,690 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) of more than $100,000, representing a 20% year-over-year increase [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 06, 2027
- Closes: March 06, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Workiva's Q3 2026 earnings release is projected for November 4, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: For Q3 2026, the company provided revenue guidance of $260 million to $262 million, with a GAAP operating margin expected between 4.2% and 4.8% [^] .
- Trigger: As of June 30, 2026, Workiva had 2,690 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) of more than $100,000, representing a 20% year-over-year increase [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts include accelerated adoption of AI-powered agents/premium tiers and continued success in multi-solution expansion [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
