Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Workiva to have above 2760 customers with ACV over $100k in Q3 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market saw a near-instantaneous repricing after its launch. The contract opened at a 1.0% YES probability on August 12, 2026, and immediately jumped to 91.0% the next day. It has since consolidated in a narrow range between 92.0% and 93.0%. The price action established a floor around 91.0% with no subsequent tests of lower levels.
The price surge was a direct reaction to Workiva's Q2 2026 earnings report, announced on August 4. The company disclosed 2,690 customers with over $100,000 in annual contract value as of June 30. This figure is just 70 customers short of the 2,760 required for the contract to resolve to YES. The market's sharp upward correction reflects the assimilation of this public data, which makes the Q3 target highly probable based on recent growth trends.
Total traded volume is zero. The price movements reflect algorithmic or manual adjustments, not peer-to-peer trading. This lack of volume means the high 92.0% probability has not been validated by capital flows. While the chart implies a strong consensus for a YES resolution based on fundamental data, there is no evidence of market participation to confirm this sentiment.
  • Above 2760 customers: A 2% model probability reflects average historical growth rates.
  • Above 2780 customers also holds a 2% probability, aligning with past additions.
  • Strategic partnerships and sales hiring signal continued, moderate customer expansion.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 2760 94.0% 2.0% Market higher by 92.0pp
Above 2780 0.0% 1.5% Model higher by 1.5pp
Above 2800 0.0% 1.0% Model higher by 1.0pp
Above 2820 0.0% 0.7% Model higher by 0.7pp
Above 2840 0.0% 0.4% Model higher by 0.4pp

Current Context

Workiva reported strong Q2 growth, guiding for continued Q3 expansion. As of June 30, 2026, the company recorded 2,690 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) exceeding $100,000, a 20% year-over-year increase [1][2][3][4]. Total revenue for Q2 2026 reached $255 million, an increase of 19% year-over-year [5][2]. For Q3 2026, Workiva projects revenue between $260 million and $262 million, with a non-GAAP operating margin target of 17.0–17.5% [5][2].
A prediction market centers on Workiva's Q3 customer count. Workiva's Q3 2026 financial results are not yet public as of August 13, 2026; the quarter ends on September 30, 2026 [1][2][3]. A Kalshi prediction market is active regarding whether Workiva will report more than 2,800 customers with ACV over $100,000 in Q3 2026 [6][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  2. 2Workiva (WK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results | lifestyle.sourcefed.comlifestyle.sourcefed.com
  4. 4Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsinvestor.workiva.com
  5. 5Workiva Outpaces Guidance with 19% Revenue Growth...marketchameleon.com
  6. 6Workiva customers over $100k ACV in Q3kalshi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 12, 2026: 90.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 91.0%

Outcome: Above 2760

What happened: The primary driver of the price movement was likely Workiva's Q2 2026 financial results, announced on August 4, 2026 [1][2]. The report revealed 2,690 customers with an ACV greater than $100,000 as of June 30, 2026, representing 20% year-over-year growth in this segment [1][3]. This positive performance, coupled with a shift to GAAP profitability and new AI product launches driving positive stock momentum through mid-August [4][5], likely led market participants to anticipate continued strong growth, projecting the Q3 customer count to surpass the "Above 2760" threshold. There is no evidence of specific social media activity or market structure factors as primary drivers.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  2. 2Workiva (NYSE: WK) grows Q2 revenue 19% and lifts...stocktitan.net
  3. 3WK - Workiva Inc Class A Earnings Reports, Summaries &...morningstar.com
  4. 4Workiva (WK) Is Up 6.4% After Swing to Profit and Launch of New AI Reporting Toolsca.finance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Why Workiva (WK) Is Up 8.9% After Strong Q2, Higher Guidance, and New AI Suite - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi prediction market resolves YES if the number of Workiva customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) over $100k in Q3 is greater than 2800. Conversely, it resolves NO if that number is 2800 or less. Trading for this market ends on November 6, 4:00 PM EST. The provided content does not detail any special settlement conditions.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 2760 $0.98 $0.10 94%
Above 2780 $0.87 $0.23 0%
Above 2800 $0.58 $0.52 0%
Above 2820 $0.30 $0.80 0%
Above 2840 $0.14 $0.96 0%
Above 2860 $0.08 $0.99 0%

Market Discussion

As of June 30, 2026, Workiva reported 2,690 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) exceeding $100,000, which represented a 20% increase from the prior year [1][2][3]. While no specific customer count guidance for Q3 2026 is provided, Workiva announced strong Q2 2026 financial results that surpassed revenue and EPS estimates, leading to positive analyst sentiment regarding its operational efficiency and margin targets [1][3][4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  2. 2Workiva: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending June 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  3. 3Workiva (WK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Workiva (NYSE:WK) Updates Q3 2026 Earnings Guidance - Ticker Reporttickerreport.com

5. What is the consensus among financial analysts regarding Workiva's expected growth in high-value customers for Q3 2026?

Q3 2026 ACV $100K+ Customer ForecastNot provided [1][2][3]
Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance$260M - $262M [1][2][3]
ACV $100K+ Customers (Q2 2026)2,690 [3][4][5]
Financial analysts have not provided a specific quantitative consensus forecast regarding Workiva's customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 for Q3 2026 [1][2][3]. Instead, the company's guidance for this period concentrates on broader financial metrics. Workiva projects total revenue for Q3 2026 to range between $260 million and $262 million, along with guidance for its non-GAAP operating margin [1][2][3].
Workiva prioritizes attracting and expanding high-value customer relationships strategically. Despite the absence of a direct numerical prediction for future ACV $100,000+ customers, Workiva's management emphasized a strategic focus on attracting larger, higher-value clients and expanding existing relationships during the Q2 2026 earnings call [1][2]. This strategic direction suggests an ongoing positive trend within this specific customer segment [1][2]. As of the close of Q2 on June 30, 2026, Workiva reported a total of 2,690 customers with an ACV greater than $100,000 [3][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Workiva (WK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2Workiva Q2 Earnings Call Highlightssharewise.com
  3. 3Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  4. 4Workiva: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending June 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  5. 5Documentsec.gov

6. What strategic initiatives or major partnerships announced by Workiva are positioned to impact large customer acquisition in Q3 2026?

EcoVadis Partnership LaunchMay 2026 [1]
Target Deal Value6-figure multi-solution deals [2][3]
IPO Customer Acquisition Window12-18 months prior to IPO [4]
Workiva announced a key strategic partnership with EcoVadis in May 2026. This collaboration integrates Scope 3 supply chain carbon emission data directly into the Workiva platform, specifically designed to drive large-enterprise adoption for sustainability and regulatory compliance [1]. This initiative is positioned to attract major customers seeking comprehensive solutions for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) reporting and adherence to evolving regulations.
Workiva's strategy is increasingly focused on acquiring large customers through multi-solution, 6-figure deals from the outset [2][3]. The company leverages its position within the private-to-public journey, often securing financial reporting and controls business 12-18 months prior to an IPO [4]. Additionally, Workiva employs a co-sell model with regional advisory firms and global consulting partners, which has proven successful in landing larger multi-solution new logos and driving high-value contract growth in sectors such as private equity and global financial services [5][2].
Sources (5)
  1. 1EcoVadis, Workiva Partner on Scope 3 Data Solutions – ESG Today - PWC Newspwc.info
  2. 2Workiva (WK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  3. 3Workiva Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summaryfinance.yahoo.com
  4. 4Workiva (WK) Transcript: 2026 Baird Global Consumer, Technology & Services Conferencestockanalysis.com
  5. 5Workiva (WK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfinance.yahoo.com

7. How does Workiva's rate of adding large enterprise customers compare to key competitor BlackLine's performance in recent quarters?

Workiva $100k+ ACV Customers2,690 (Q2 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Workiva $100k+ ACV Customer Growth20% year-over-year (Q2 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Net Revenue Retention (Q2 2026)Workiva 111%, BlackLine 102% [5][1][6][7]
Workiva demonstrates robust growth in its large enterprise customer base. Workiva reported a 20% year-over-year increase in customers with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) over $100,000, reaching a total of 2,690 as of Q2 2026 [1][2][3][4]. The company also showed substantial expansion within higher ACV cohorts, with customers over $300,000 ACV growing 34% year-over-year and those over $500,000 ACV increasing 33% year-over-year in Q2 2026 [1][3]. This performance indicates accelerating growth and consistent acquisition and expansion success within its large enterprise segment [6][8].
BlackLine's enterprise customer growth shows signs of deceleration. In contrast, BlackLine does not disclose a direct comparable count of customers with an ACV over $100,000 [9][6][8][7]. BlackLine instead reported 721 customers with over $250,000 Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and 90 customers with over $1 million ARR as of Q2 2026 [9][6][8][7]. The company's recent enterprise customer performance has been characterized by decelerating top-line growth, remaining in the 7-9% range, alongside extended deal cycles, which are 40 to 45 days longer than previous periods [6][8].
Workiva maintains stronger large enterprise growth and retention compared to BlackLine. Overall, Workiva indicates stronger growth and retention in its large enterprise customer base compared to BlackLine's recent performance [1][3][6][8][7][5]. This is further supported by Workiva's net revenue retention (NRR) rate of 111% in Q2 2026, which surpasses BlackLine's NRR of 102% for the same period [5][1][6][7]. Workiva's higher NRR reflects greater success in expanding revenue from its existing enterprise customers [5][1][6][7].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  2. 2Workiva Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Newsroomnewsroom.workiva.com
  3. 3Workiva (WK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Workiva: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending March 31, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  5. 5BlackLine vs Workiva NRR - Head-to-Head Comparison | Custcust.co
  6. 6BlackLine Q2 2026 slides: AI push, platform shift amid growth deceleration By Investing.cominvesting.com
  7. 7BlackLine posts Q2 2026 results and 2026 outlook | BL 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  8. 8BlackLine (BL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  9. 9BlackLine Announces Second Quarter Financial Resultsglobenewswire.com

8. What alternative datasets, such as hiring trends for sales roles, are available to provide leading indicators of Workiva's Q3 2026 performance?

Current Sales Job Postings98 Workiva sales jobs visible on LinkedIn [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Sales Hiring FocusRoles span Sales Development Representative, Account Development Representative, Account Executive / Senior Account Executive, Manager of Inside Sales, and Solution Sales Executive – Governance, Risk, and Compliance [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Institutional Ownership ChangeFirst Trust Advisors LP increased Workiva position in Q1 2026 [7][8][1][2][3][4][5][6]
Workiva's sales hiring activity serves as a key leading indicator for Workiva's Q3 2026 performance, particularly concerning customers with over $100k Annual Contract Value (ACV). The company is actively posting sales positions, with 98 roles visible on LinkedIn, including Sales Development Representative, Account Development Representative, and Account Executive, which suggests a strategic focus on both pipeline generation and expanding quota-carrying coverage [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This aligns with management commentary emphasizing the strategy to "hire motivated sales people" possessing enterprise software sales experience, thus confirming ongoing investment in go-to-market execution [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This sales hiring momentum is considered the most valuable leading indicator for larger ACV customers in Q3 2026, as it typically underpins the generation of new pipeline and broadens enterprise deal coverage [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Market and ownership signals offer additional insights into investor sentiment, although they are not direct operating key performance indicators. Examples of these signals include institutional activity, such as First Trust Advisors LP increasing its Workiva position in Q1 2026, while Pembroke Management simultaneously trimmed its shares [7][8][1][2][3][4][5][6]. It is important to note that the provided data does not include the specific count of customers over $100k ACV for Q3 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  2. 2www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  3. 3www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  4. 4www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  5. 5www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
  6. 6www.gurufocus.comOctagon Agentgurufocus.com
  7. 7Workiva (WK) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  8. 8He Modeled Every Regime Since 1965 | Aahan Menon on What Wins from Hereyoutube.com

9. Based on Workiva's performance from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026, what has been the average quarterly net addition of customers with >$100k ACV?

Average quarterly net additions (>100k ACV customers)109 customers (Q3 2024 to Q2 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Customers with >100k ACV (Q3 2024)1,926 [2][5][6][4][3][1]
Customers with >100k ACV (Q2 2026)2,690 [2][5][6][4][3][1]
Workiva significantly increased its high-value customer base from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026. During this period, the company's customer count with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) exceeding $100,000 grew substantially from 1,926 in Q3 2024 to 2,690 by Q2 2026 [2][5][6][4][3][1]. This expansion represents an average quarterly net addition of approximately 109 high-value customers [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Quarterly net additions of high-value customers varied across the period. Specific net additions for customers with over $100,000 ACV were 129 in Q4 2024, 24 in Q1 2025, 162 in Q2 2025, 131 in Q3 2025, 135 in Q4 2025, 68 in Q1 2026, and 115 in Q2 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Workiva: Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending June 30, 2026 (Form 10-Q) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3Workiva Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsnewsroom.workiva.com
  4. 4Workiva Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025...newsroom.workiva.com
  5. 5Workiva Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Resultsnewsroom.workiva.com
  6. 6Workiva Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2025 Financial Resultsnewsroom.workiva.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Workiva's Q3 2026 earnings release is projected for November 4, 2026 [1]. For Q3 2026, the company provided revenue guidance of $260 million to $262 million, with a GAAP operating margin expected between 4.2% and 4.8% [2]. As of June 30, 2026, Workiva had 2,690 customers with an annual contract value (ACV) of more than $100,000, representing a 20% year-over-year increase [3].
Bullish catalysts include accelerated adoption of AI-powered agents/premium tiers and continued success in multi-solution expansion [4][5]. Bearish risks center on macro-driven slowdowns in enterprise spending, elongated deal cycles, and regulatory policy shifts affecting demand [4][5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 06, 2027
  • Closes: March 06, 2027
Sources (5)
  1. 1Workiva Next Earnings Datenextearningsdate.com
  2. 2Workiva Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Third Quarter Ending September 30, 2026 and Year Ending December 31, 2026 | MarketScreener Indiain.marketscreener.com
  3. 3Workiva Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsmarkets.financialcontent.com
  4. 4Why Workiva (WK) Is Up 8.9% After Strong Q2, Higher Guidance, and New AI Suite - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  5. 5WK Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Expansion and AI Strategy Drive Platform Adoption - StockStorystockstory.org