Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q2
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~24h): Model conviction for sales Above -5% increased significantly by +12.8pp, compressing the edge.
- The overall edge for Above -10% compressed by +4.0pp, as model rose +2.0pp and market fell -2.0pp.
- Overall confidence in the model's assessment increased by +1.0pp, reaching a score of 8.0.
- Model decreased for Above -7.5% by -1.1pp while market held, widening the edge.
- U.S. same-restaurant sales above -10% expected, anticipating sequential improvement from Q1. Project Fresh momentum and Wall Street consensus point to sales growth above -5%.
Current Context
Sources (4)
- 1The Wendy's Company - The Wendy's Company to Report Second Quarter 2026 Results on August 7irwendys.com
- 2The Wendy's Company to Report Second Quarter 2026 Results on August 7prnewswire.com
- 3Wendy’s Bets on ‘Project Fresh’ to Reverse U.S. Sales Declines - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 4Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q2kalshi.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 July 11, 2026: 76.0pp spike
Price increased from 8.0% to 84.0%
Outcome: Above -10%
📈 July 07, 2026: 21.0pp spike
Price increased from 70.0% to 91.0%
Outcome: Above -10%
📉 July 06, 2026: 65.0pp drop
Price decreased from 91.0% to 26.0%
Outcome: Above -10%
Sources (13)
- 1Wendy’s Shares Jump 42% as Meme Traders Rally Behind Fast-Food Chain - Bloombergbloomberg.com
- 2A Tale Of Two Wendy’s: Beneath The Wild Meme-Stock Surge | Trefistrefis.com
- 34 Key Traits: How a Reddit Inside Joke Sent Wendy’s Stock Skyrocketing 28 Percentinc.com
- 4WEN Stock Attempts Trend Reversal on “Save Wendy’s” Frenzy while Naming Steve Cirulis CFO as Strategy Lead - Forex News by FX Leadersfxleaders.com
- 5The Wendy's Company - The Wendy's Company to Report Second Quarter 2026 Results on August 7irwendys.com
- 6Wendy's Q2 2026 results due Aug. 7 | WEN Stock Newsstocktitan.net
- 7Wendy’s (NASDAQ:WEN) Shares Down 5.7% – What’s Next? - Daily Politicaldailypolitical.com
- 8Wendy’s (NASDAQ:WEN) Stock Price Down 5.7% – What’s Next? - Zolmaxzolmax.com
- 9Why Wendy's (WEN) Stock Is Down Todayfinviz.com
- 10Wendy’s Bets on ‘Project Fresh’ to Reverse U.S. Sales Declines - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 11THE WENDY'S COMPANY REPORTS FIRST QUARTER...irwendys.com
- 12Wendy's Stock Halted Multiple Times as "Wendependence Day" Buzz Takes Over Wall Street | ABC Moneyabcmoney.co.uk
- 13Wendy's Soars 31% as “Save Wendy's” Meme Army...finance.yahoo.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Wendy's Company reports U.S. same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026 above -7.5%; otherwise, it resolves NO. The outcome is verified by Fiscal.ai. The market closes early if the event occurs, or by September 6, 2026, at 7:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading is prohibited for this contract.
Market Discussion
The Wendy's Company is scheduled to report its Q2 2026 financial results on August 7, 2026 [1][2][3]. Management previously projected a mid-single-digit percentage decline in system-wide sales for Q2, anticipating a return to growth in the second half of 2026 supported by Project Fresh initiatives [4]. Market sentiment remains mixed, with some retail investors focusing on meme-stock volatility, while analysts express skepticism about the scalability of turnaround efforts, especially following a 7.8% decline in U.S. same-restaurant sales during Q1 2026 [5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1The Wendy's Company - The Wendy's Company to Report Second Quarter 2026 Results on August 7irwendys.com
- 2The Wendy's Company to Report Second Quarter 2026 Results on August 7prnewswire.com
- 3Wendy's Q2 2026 results due Aug. 7 | WEN Stock Newsstocktitan.net
- 4Wendy’s Stock Beats on Revenue but EPS Falls 40%: Is the Turnaround Real? | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 5A Tale Of Two Wendy’s: Beneath The Wild Meme-Stock Surge | Trefistrefis.com
- 6WEN Stock Price Prediction: Can the Meme Rally Really Push Wendy’s to $15? - MarketWisemarketwise.com
5. Trader Dashboard
6. What impact will Wendy's 'Project Fresh' initiatives and evolving Q2 2026 consumer spending trends have on its upcoming August earnings report?
| Q2 2026 Systemwide Sales Outlook | Mid-single-digit percentage decline [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Q1 Sales Decline | 7.8% [3] |
| Q2 2026 Sales Growth Prediction Market | Above -7.5% or -5.0% [4][5] |
Sources (10)
- 1Wendy’s Bets on ‘Project Fresh’ to Reverse U.S. Sales Declines - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 2Wendy's (WEN) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 3Wendy’s Q1 sales decline 7.8% as Project Fresh turnaround gains momentum | QSR Webqsrweb.com
- 4Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q2kalshi.com
- 5Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q2coinbase.com
- 6Restaurant Traffic Cliff: Consumer Spending Pullback Hits Q2 2026 | QSR Proqsr.pro
- 7Restaurant Trends: June 2026 - Revenue Management Solutionsrevenuemanage.com
- 8Wendy’s bets order accuracy and clean stores will revive sales | Restaurant Diverestaurantdive.com
- 9Darden Posts Weak Outlook as Olive Garden Sales Disappointyoutube.com
- 10Micron Soars After AI-Fueled Forecast Shatters Projections | Bloomberg Intelligenceyoutube.com
7. How do Wall Street analyst consensus estimates for Wendy's Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales compare to the company's own guidance?
| Analyst Q2 2026 U.S. Same-Restaurant Sales Growth | -3.60% [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| Wendy's Q2 2026 U.S. Same-Restaurant Sales Guidance | mid-single-digit decline [7][1][2][3][4][5][6] |
| Wendy's Q2 2026 Global Systemwide Sales Guidance | mid-single-digit percentage decline [8][9][10] |
Sources (10)
- 1www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 2www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
- 3www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 4www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
- 5www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 6www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 7Investors Believe This. 200 Years of Data Doesn't Agreeyoutube.com
- 8Wendy's (WEN) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
- 9Wendy's (WEN) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 10Wendy's (WEN) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript - AOLaol.com
8. How did Wendy's and McDonald's comparable U.S. sales growth stack up in Q1 2026, and what are the expectations for both in Q2 2026?
| McDonald's Q1 2026 U.S. comparable sales | increased by 3.9% [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Wendy's Q1 2026 U.S. same-restaurant sales | declined by 7.8% [4][5][6] |
| McDonald's Q2 2026 U.S. comparable sales consensus | +4.10% [7][8][9][10][11][12] |
Sources (16)
- 1McDONALD'S REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - May 7, 2026mcdonalds.mediaroom.com
- 2https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/content/dam/sites/corp/nfl/pdf/Q1%202026%20Exhibit%2099.1%20-%203.31.26.pdfcorporate.mcdonalds.com
- 3Documentsec.gov
- 4THE WENDY'S COMPANY REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 5Wendy’s Q1 2026 earnings hit by traffic decline | WEN Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
- 6Wendy's (WEN) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
- 7www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 8247wallst.comOctagon Agent
- 9247wallst.comOctagon Agent
- 10247wallst.comOctagon Agent
- 11247wallst.comOctagon Agent
- 12247wallst.comOctagon Agent
- 13McDonald’s value, menu innovation drive positive Q1 comparable sales | Restaurant Diverestaurantdive.com
- 14McDonald's (MCD) Q1 2026 earningscnbc.com
- 15McDonald's (MCD) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 16EX-99.1sec.gov
9. What major promotional campaigns or menu launches did key competitors like McDonald's and Burger King run during Q2 2026 that could have impacted Wendy's market share?
| McDonald's Global Campaign Quarter | Q2 2026 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| McDonald's Value Menu Launch | April 21, 2026 [4][5][6][7][8][9] |
| Wendy's Q1 2026 U.S. Sales Decline | 7.8% [10] |
Sources (10)
- 1McDonald's Celebrates FIFA World Cup 26™ Worldwide with Limited-Time Meals, Exclusive Star-Studded Collectibles and Matchday Magicprnewswire.com
- 2McDonald’s FIFA World Cup campaign includes a cup collectionnrn.com
- 3McDonald's turns the World Cup into a menu eventrollingout.com
- 4www.newsfilecorp.comOctagon Agentnewsfilecorp.com
- 5www.newsfilecorp.comOctagon Agentnewsfilecorp.com
- 6www.newsfilecorp.comOctagon Agentnewsfilecorp.com
- 7www.newsfilecorp.comOctagon Agentnewsfilecorp.com
- 8www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 9www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 10Wendy's (WEN) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
10. What do recent consumer sentiment surveys and third-party spending reports reveal about the health of the U.S. fast-food customer in Q2 2026?
| U.S. Fast-Food Consumer Personal Finance Sentiment (Q2 2026) | Two-thirds of consumers felt good [1][2] |
|---|---|
| QSR Sector Traffic Trend (Q2 2026) | Declined [1][3][4] |
| Wendy's U.S. Same-Restaurant Sales Growth (Q1 2026) | 7.8% decline [5][6] |
Sources (6)
- 1National Restaurant Association Quarterly Consumer Insights Survey Q2 2026 - Restaurant News Resourcerestaurantnewsresource.com
- 2New National Restaurant Association Survey: Restaurants Stay a Priority As Financial Strains Challenge Spending - Restaurant News Resourcerestaurantnewsresource.com
- 3Consumer Edge Shows the Restaurant Industry Is Fracturing: Diners Are Either Hunting for Deals or Splurgingprnewswire.com
- 4Restaurant Trends: June 2026 - Revenue Management Solutionsrevenuemanage.com
- 5Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q2kalshi.com
- 6Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q2coinbase.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 06, 2026
- Closes: September 06, 2026
Sources (13)
- 1The Wendy's Company - The Wendy's Company to Report Second Quarter 2026 Results on August 7irwendys.com
- 2The Wendy's Company to Report Second Quarter 2026 Results on August 7prnewswire.com
- 3Wendy's Next Earnings Datenextearningsdate.com
- 4247wallst.comOctagon Agent
- 5247wallst.comOctagon Agent
- 6www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 7www.benzinga.comOctagon Agentbenzinga.com
- 8www.benzinga.comOctagon Agentbenzinga.com
- 9www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 10Wendy's: A Turnaround Worth Watching, But Not Buying Yet (NASDAQ:WEN) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
- 11A Tale Of Two Wendy’s: Beneath The Wild Meme-Stock Surge | Trefistrefis.com
- 12Picksmith - Stock Research - The Wendy's Companypicksmith.co
- 13Why a Meme Stock Rally is Bad News for Wendy’s - The Food Institutefoodinstitute.com