Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q2
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026 to be Above -10%, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. The April 2026 figure of -6.4% and management guidance for a "mid-single-digit decline" in Q2 suggest a moderation from Q1's -7.8%.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~7h): Model's "Above -5%" probability dropped 11.1pp, widening the edge, driven by model conviction.
- Model's "Above -2.5%" probability also decreased 3.9pp, widening its edge, an internal model shift.
- The model's overall "Above -10%" probability declined 2.3pp, widening the edge, driven by its conviction.
- Both model and market probabilities for "Above -7.5%" decreased by 1.0pp, showing shared movement.
- Q2 sales are likely above -7.5%, driven by April 2026's -6.4% figure.
- Management guided a mid-single-digit decline, moderating from Q1's -7.8%.
- The -6.4% April figure makes Q2 sales above -5.0% less probable.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -2.5% | 10.0% | 12.4% | Q2 sales are expected to decline mid-single-digits, making growth above -2.5% less likely. |
| Above 0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | U.S. same-restaurant sales are expected to decline in Q2, making positive growth unlikely. |
| Above -7.5% | 75.0% | 72.3% | The April 2026 sales figure of -6.4% suggests Q2 average is likely to be above -7.5%. |
| Above -10% | 86.0% | 81.8% | Management expects a mid-single-digit decline, with April 2026 sales reported at -6.4%. |
| Above 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | U.S. same-restaurant sales are expected to decline, making growth above 2.5% very unlikely. |
Current Context
Wendy's Q2 2026 U.S. same-restaurant sales growth remains unreleased. As of July 9, 2026, The Wendy's Company has not yet published its official U.S. same-restaurant sales growth figure for the second quarter of 2026 [^][^][^][^]. The company is scheduled to report its Q2 2026 financial results on or around August 7, 2026 [^][^][^]. Same-restaurant sales are identified as a key business measure for Wendy's [^].
Prior financial reports provide historical sales context. In the first quarter of 2026, Wendy's reported a 7.8% decline in U.S. same-restaurant sales [^]. While Q2 2025 revenue growth was 7.16% and Q2 2024 revenue growth was 6.73%, these figures represent company-level revenue and not U.S. same-restaurant sales for the requested Q2 2026 period [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market opened with conviction at 99.0% probability before trending downward. The primary feature of the chart is extreme volatility in early July, characterized by a sharp drop and subsequent rebound. On July 6, the price collapsed 65.0 percentage points from 91.0% to a low of 26.0%. The following day, July 7, it reversed sharply, spiking 21.0 percentage points to 91.0%. The provided context does not identify a fundamental driver for these movements, and it notes that the 65.0pp drop is not supported by the available research materials. The Q2 2026 earnings data from Wendy's remains unreleased.
The price action suggests a period of significant uncertainty or potentially thin liquidity. The market established a clear ceiling near 99.0% and a floor at 26.0% during the period of volatility. Trading volume across 2,191 contracts indicates active participation, though the concentration of this volume around the early July price swings is notable. After the sharp recovery to 91.0%, the price has since settled lower to its current level of 86.0%. This stabilization, well above the July 6 low, suggests that while initial market confidence has eroded from the 99.0% peak, sentiment remains strongly skewed toward a 'YES' resolution.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above -7.5%
📈 July 07, 2026: 30.0pp spike
Price increased from 42.0% to 72.0%
What happened: The provided research does not identify a primary driver for a 30.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for "Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q2" on July 07, 2026. Wendy's Q2 2026 financial results have not yet been released, with earnings expected in mid-August 2026, and Q1 2026 US same-restaurant sales declined 7.8% [^][^][^]. No specific social media activity from key figures or major news announcements were found to have caused such a prediction market movement around this date [^][^][^][^]. Therefore, social media was not a primary driver, and no other clear catalyst is evident from the available information.
Outcome: Above -10%
📉 July 06, 2026: 65.0pp drop
Price decreased from 91.0% to 26.0%
What happened: The reported 65.0 percentage point drop in the Wendy's US same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 prediction market on July 06, 2026, is not supported by the provided research [^][^][^][^]. The term "65.0pp" appears in various 2026 prediction market and sports analytics reports for betting odds shifts, but it is not associated with Wendy's financial performance in the given sources [^]. Wendy's Q2 2026 results are not expected until mid-August 2026, making a price movement on July 06, 2026, premature for these results [^][^][^][^]. Therefore, without evidence of this specific market event occurring for Wendy's, no primary driver (social media or otherwise) can be identified, and social media activity is irrelevant to this unsubstantiated movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves Yes if Wendy's Company reports above -5.0% U.S. same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026, and No if it reports -5.0% or less, with the outcome verified by Fiscal.ai.
The market opened on May 28, 2026, and will close early if the event occurs, otherwise, it closes by September 6, 2026, at 7:00 AM EDT, with a projected payout 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading by employees of Source Agencies or those with material, non-public information is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -10% | $0.90 | $0.13 | 86% |
| Above -7.5% | $0.75 | $0.28 | 75% |
| Above -5% | $0.44 | $0.57 | 44% |
| Above -2.5% | $0.11 | $0.90 | 10% |
| Above 0% | $0.08 | $0.97 | 2% |
| Above 2.5% | $0.05 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
As of July 9, 2026, Wendy's has not released its Q2 2026 financial results, which are generally expected in early-to-mid August 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. Management's Q2 2026 outlook anticipated a mid-single-digit percentage decline in global systemwide sales, following a 7.8% decline in U.S. same-restaurant sales for Q1 2026 [^][^]. Recent public commentary has been mixed to negative regarding the company's near-term momentum, with discussions in late June 2026 around a "Save Wendy's" meme campaign for a potential short squeeze despite ongoing concerns about weak growth and traffic [^][^][^][^][^].
5. How did Wendy's U.S. same-restaurant sales growth in Q1 2026 compare to that of McDonald's and Burger King?
| Wendy's U.S. Sales Growth | -7.8% (Q1 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| McDonald's U.S. Sales Growth | 3.9% (Q1 2026) [^][^] |
| Burger King U.S. Sales Growth | 5.8% (Q1 2026) [^][^] |
Wendy's U.S. same-restaurant sales declined significantly in Q1 2026. The Wendy's Company reported a U.S. same-restaurant sales growth of -7.8% during the first quarter of 2026 [^]. This performance was lower than that of its primary fast-food rivals for the same reporting period.
Competitors McDonald's and Burger King reported positive sales growth. In contrast to Wendy's, both McDonald's and Burger King achieved positive U.S. comparable sales growth in Q1 2026. McDonald's posted an increase of 3.9% [^][^], while Burger King recorded a higher same-store sales growth, rising by 5.8% [^][^].
6. What major promotional campaigns or menu changes did Wendy's implement in the U.S. during Q2 2026?
| Spring Menu Lineup Launch | April 27, 2026 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Minions & Monsters Campaign Launch | June 15, 2026 [^][^][^] |
| Rewards Drops Campaign Period | May 13 - June 3, 2026 [^] |
Wendy's implemented a strategic array of limited-time promotions and menu innovations in the U.S. during Q2 2026, aiming to increase traffic and same-restaurant sales [^][^][^][^][^][^]. A significant introduction was the spring menu lineup, launched on April 27, 2026, which permanently added the Cookie Dough Frosty Fusion to the core menu. This lineup also featured new limited-time items such as Watermelon Lemonade and the Jalapeño Ranch Cheeseburger, alongside various other seasonal offerings [^][^].
The quarter also featured several distinct promotional campaigns. On April 7, 2026, Wendy's conducted a one-day U.S. promotion offering a free Small Hot & Crispy Fry paired with a Small Chocolate or Vanilla Frosty Classic [^]. From May 13 to June 3, 2026, the company ran its Rewards Drops campaign, which provided loyalty members with weekly limited-edition merchandise and early access to new menu items [^]. Additionally, on May 5, 2026, Wendy's held an in-restaurant Round Up for Adoption campaign, supporting the Dave Thomas Foundation for Adoption [^].
June brought a major themed promotional campaign and ongoing efforts. Starting June 15, 2026, Wendy's launched the Minions & Monsters campaign, which included a limited-time Banana Frosty Swirl, two themed Coca-Cola Freestyle beverages, and themed meals featuring exclusive collectibles for both children and adults. This promotion further expanded the brand's Frosty Swirls/Frosty Fusions platform [^][^][^][^]. Throughout Q2 2026, Wendy's also continued merchandising for its breakfast platform and highlighted a limited-time burger for International Hamburger Day on June 9, 2026 [^].
7. Based on its Q1 2026 earnings call, what forward-looking guidance did Wendy's management provide regarding Q2 and full-year 2026 performance?
| Q2 2026 Global System-Wide Sales | Mid-single-digit percentage decline [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Full-Year 2026 Global System-Wide Sales Growth | Approximately flat [^][^][^] |
| Full-Year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | $460 million to $480 million [^][^][^] |
Wendy's anticipates significant pressure on Q2 2026 global system-wide sales. During its Q1 2026 earnings call, Wendy's management guided for a mid-single-digit percentage decline in global system-wide sales for the second quarter of 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. This expected pressure is attributed to continued weakness among lower-income consumers and ongoing headwinds affecting breakfast sales [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. While management indicated that the quarter would remain pressured, a specific numeric forecast for U.S. same-restaurant sales growth was not provided [^][^][^][^][^].
Wendy's reaffirmed its full-year 2026 outlook, expecting flat system-wide sales. For the full year 2026, Wendy's reiterated its guidance, projecting global system-wide sales growth to be approximately flat [^][^][^]. Performance is expected to improve sequentially later in the year, with the second half benefiting from planned marketing, media, and operational improvements, including Project Fresh [^][^][^][^][^]. The reaffirmed full-year outlook also includes adjusted EBITDA ranging from $460 million to $480 million, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.56 to $0.60, capital expenditures between $120 million and $130 million, and free cash flow projected at $190 million to $205 million [^][^][^].
8. What do third-party foot traffic and consumer spending data reveal about Wendy's U.S. performance trends throughout Q2 2026?
| Q1 2026 U.S. Same-Restaurant Sales | 7.8% decline [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Global System-Wide Sales Expectation | Mid-single-digit percentage decline [^][^] |
| April 2026 U.S. Same-Restaurant Sales | Approximately 6.4% decline [^][^] |
Third-party foot traffic and consumer spending data for Wendy's U.S. performance throughout Q2 2026 is not available. However, internal performance metrics and management expectations provide insight into the company's recent performance and outlook for the quarter. In Q1 2026, Wendy's reported a 7.8% decline in U.S. same-restaurant sales, primarily driven by decreases in customer traffic [^][^]. This system-wide struggle is expected to persist into mid-Q2 2026, with management anticipating global system-wide sales to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage for the full Q2 2026 [^][^].
Early Q2 U.S. sales continued declining, fueling market skepticism. Specifically, U.S. same-restaurant sales in April 2026 experienced a decline of approximately 6.4% [^][^]. Market sentiment reflects considerable skepticism regarding the potential for a rebound sufficient to achieve positive or less-negative growth thresholds when compared to Q1 results, especially given April's sales performance [^].
9. How did key U.S. macroeconomic indicators, like the Consumer Price Index for food away from home, trend during Q2 2026?
| CPI Food Away from Home (April 2026) | 393.546 [^] |
|---|---|
| CPI Food Away from Home (June 2026) | 395.771 [^] |
| CPI Food Away from Home Year-over-year (April 2026) | +3.70% [^][^] |
The Consumer Price Index for food away from home consistently rose in Q2 2026. This seasonally adjusted index experienced a sustained increase, climbing from 393.546 in April 2026 to 395.771 in June 2026 [^][^]. Notably, May 2026 alone saw a 0.3% rise. This continuous upward trend signifies persistent inflationary pressure within the services sector throughout the quarter [^].
Year-over-year growth for food away from home remained elevated. The annual increase for the CPI for food away from home was +3.70% in April 2026, followed by a slight deceleration to +3.50% in May 2026 [^][^]. Despite this minor slowdown, the rate stayed significantly above zero inflation, indicating that both restaurant input costs and consumer price pressures persisted through the quarter. The full Q2 2026 year-over-year average could not be completed, as the June 2026 CPI release was not yet available within the research window [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Wendy's Company is projected to release its Q2 2026 earnings report on August 7, 2026 [^] [^] [^] . For Q2 2026, the company has provided guidance anticipating a mid-single-digit decline in US same-restaurant sales [^]. This contributes to an outlook expecting flat global systemwide sales for the full year, with growth projected for the second half of 2026 [^].
Potential bullish catalysts include a possible buyout by Trian Partners [^] [^] [^] [^] . - MarketWise" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. The appointments of CEO Robert Wright and CFO Steve Cirulis are also noted, as they led a successful turnaround at Potbelly [^][^][^][^]. Additionally, the implementation of "Project Fresh" is identified as a positive factor [^][^][^][^].
Bearish factors encompass ongoing US same-restaurant sales declines and high financial leverage [^] [^] [^] [^] . - MarketWise" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. There is also a risk that the recent share price surge, driven by retail-coordinated short squeezes, lacks fundamental support [^][^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 06, 2026
- Closes: September 06, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The Wendy's Company is projected to release its Q2 2026 earnings report on August 7, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: For Q2 2026, the company has provided guidance anticipating a mid-single-digit decline in US same-restaurant sales [^] .
- Trigger: This contributes to an outlook expecting flat global systemwide sales for the full year, with growth projected for the second half of 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Potential bullish catalysts include a possible buyout by Trian Partners [^] [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
