Above 15%
Market Model 35.0% 24.0%
Above 14%
Market Model 48.0% 44.4%
Topic tracker · Financials
Google KPI
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (2 live, 1 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Google KPI markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated August 6, 2026
Live markets
Google headcount in Q3 Kalshi
Above 202 thousand
Market Model 66.0% 59.2%
Above 207 thousand
Market Model 3.0% 25.0%
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Google headcount in Q2 | July 22, 2026 | — | Report → |
