Copper price on August 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect copper prices to be above $6.39 on August 28, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's primary movement was driven by speculation surrounding potential U.S. import tariffs on refined copper. This prospect catalyzed the largest single-day increase, a 22.0 percentage point spike on August 24, as copper prices approached new records. The tariff news continued to drive prices the following day, August 25, resulting in a further 16.0 point gain as traders reportedly began stockpiling the metal.
The upward surge followed a brief drop on August 22. That decline was attributed to an easing supply squeeze, which had caused copper prices to pull back from all-time highs set earlier in the week. By August 26, the spot price for copper stood at $6.60 per pound, and prediction markets implied a high probability of prices remaining elevated.
- Copper likely stays above $6.39 on anticipated U.S. import tariffs and structural demand.
- COMEX futures testing $6.90-$7.00/lb suggests prices may rise well above $6.51.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $6.57 | 85.0% | 86.7% | Anticipated US import tariffs and strong AI/energy transition demand drive positive market sentiment. |
| Above $6.66 | 27.0% | 33.7% | COMEX futures are reportedly testing the $6.90-$7.00/lb level. |
| Above $6.63 | 22.0% | 33.7% | COMEX futures are reportedly testing the $6.90-$7.00/lb level. |
| Above $6.54 | 82.0% | 86.7% | Anticipated US import tariffs and strong AI/energy transition demand drive positive market sentiment. |
| Above $6.51 | 86.0% | 87.6% | Anticipated US import tariffs and strong AI/energy transition demand drive positive market sentiment. |
Current Context
Prediction markets indicate a high probability for higher copper prices by August 28, 2026. As of August 26, 2026, prediction markets for the copper price on August 28, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT show a 91.5% probability of the price being $6.54 per pound or higher [^]. There is also a 64.5% probability that the price will reach or exceed $6.78 per pound [^]. The copper price stood at $6.60 per pound as of August 26, 2026 [^]. The specific copper price for August 28, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT has not yet been determined, as the market for that date remains open [^].
Upward price pressure stems from tariffs and specific demand drivers. Copper prices currently face upward pressure due to potential U.S. import tariffs, which have spurred inventory buildup in COMEX warehouses, tightening the market despite overall global supply surpluses [^][^][^]. Chile's copper commission, Cochilco, recently increased its 2026 copper price forecast to $5.95 per pound, attributing this to structural supply constraints and ongoing demand from the energy transition and AI infrastructure [^].
Analyst forecasts for 2026 copper prices show considerable divergence. Market consensus forecasts for copper in 2026 have ranged from $5.00 to $6.35 per pound [^]. Some institutions project prices as high as $15,000 per metric ton ($6.80/lb) in bullish scenarios, while others, like ING, maintain a more conservative central view near $11,500 per metric ton ($5.22/lb) [^][^]. Analysts note potential downward pressure from a surplus, balanced against volatility linked to Federal Reserve policy and Chinese stimulus [^]. CME Group (COMEX) and the London Metal Exchange (LME) serve as primary benchmarks for global copper price discovery and hedging [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $6.63
📉 August 26, 2026: 46.0pp drop
Price decreased from 68.0% to 22.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the 1.71% daily decline in the spot price of copper, which settled at $6.60 USD/lb on August 26, 2026 [^]. This downward movement placed the actual copper price further below the "$6.63" threshold for the prediction market outcome, significantly reducing the perceived probability of the "Above $6.63" outcome by August 28, 2026 [^][^]. While no specific social media activity or distinct news catalyst was found to directly explain a 46.0 percentage point drop for copper [^], this price action, combined with broader 2026 forecasts suggesting prices generally below $6.63, contributed to a sharp reassessment of the outcome's likelihood [^][^]. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified.
📈 August 25, 2026: 30.0pp spike
Price increased from 31.0% to 61.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market's price movement was the widely reported prospect of U.S. import tariffs on refined copper, identified as the primary catalyst for copper price spikes on August 25, 2026 [^][^][^]. This news induced traders to aggressively stockpile metal in U.S.-based COMEX warehouses, creating a "siphon effect" that tightened global inventories and pushed prices toward record highs [^][^][^]. This traditional news and policy threat appeared to lead the prediction market spike. Social media activity was irrelevant, as no related posts or narratives from key figures were identified in the provided information.
Outcome: Above $6.57
📈 August 24, 2026: 22.0pp spike
Price increased from 40.0% to 62.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 22.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market was traditional news and market speculation surrounding potential U.S. import tariffs on refined copper [^]. Reports as of August 25, 2026, highlighted that copper prices were hitting fresh New York records amid these tariff threats, leading to significant supply chain shifts and tightening global supplies [^]. This ongoing news likely increased market confidence that copper prices would remain above $6.57 by August 28, 2026 [^]. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity was found in the provided information.
Outcome: Above $6.45
📈 August 23, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 62.0% to 75.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 13.0 percentage point spike in the "Above $6.45" prediction market outcome on August 23, 2026, was the robust performance of COMEX copper futures on that date. COMEX copper futures (HGU6) closed at $6.5715 per pound on August 23, 2026, which was already above the $6.45 threshold for the prediction market, directly influencing investor confidence [^]. This market movement was likely reinforced by ongoing reports of US tariff-related hoarding and structural supply constraints [^][^]. Social media was not identifiable as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or significant factor based on the provided information.
Outcome: Above $6.48
📉 August 22, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 63.0% to 52.0%
What happened: The prediction market's 11.0 percentage point drop on August 22, 2026, for copper staying "Above $6.48" was primarily driven by traditional market factors. Copper prices began retreating "earlier in the week" as a supply squeeze eased after setting new all-time highs [^]. This decline was further influenced by a stronger U.S. dollar, which offset ongoing supply concerns and contributed to downward price pressure [^]. Social media activity was not a primary driver for this movement, as no relevant social media information was identified in the available sources.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if the copper price on August 28, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT is above $6.63, and NO if it is $6.63 or below. The market settles at 5:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2026. For this settlement, the price will be determined using the front-month copper futures contract settlement price, as it occurs before the September 4, 2026, change to the Pyth Copper 24/7 index.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $6.39 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above $6.42 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above $6.45 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above $6.48 | $0.94 | $0.07 | 97% |
| Above $6.51 | $0.87 | $0.14 | 86% |
| Above $6.57 | $0.83 | $0.18 | 85% |
| Above $6.54 | $0.83 | $0.18 | 82% |
| Above $6.60 | $0.72 | $0.29 | 71% |
| Above $6.69 | $0.21 | $0.83 | 28% |
| Above $6.66 | $0.27 | $0.76 | 27% |
| Above $6.63 | $0.38 | $0.65 | 22% |
| Above $6.87 | $0.05 | $0.98 | 21% |
| Above $6.78 | $0.10 | $0.94 | 19% |
| Above $6.90 | $0.05 | $0.99 | 13% |
| Above $6.72 | $0.13 | $0.88 | 12% |
| Above $6.75 | $0.09 | $0.92 | 11% |
| Above $6.93 | $0.05 | $0.98 | 8% |
| Above $6.84 | $0.06 | $0.98 | 7% |
| Above $6.81 | $0.08 | $0.96 | 6% |
| Above $6.96 | $0.05 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Above $6.99 | $0.05 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Above $7.05 | $0.05 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Above $7.02 | $0.05 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Above $7.08 | $0.04 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Above $7.11 | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $7.14 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $7.17 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $7.20 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $7.23 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $7.26 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $7.29 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above $7.32 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above $7.35 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above $7.38 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above $7.41 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above $7.44 | $0.10 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above $7.47 | $0.10 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above $7.50 | $0.10 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above $7.53 | $0.10 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above $7.56 | $0.10 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
There is no traded market price for copper on August 28, 2026, as the August 2026 futures contract terminated its trading period earlier in the month [^]; however, a separate prediction market shows a 91.5% implied probability of the price reaching $6.54 or above by that date, as of August 24, 2026 [^]. As of August 26, 2026, copper prices are highly volatile and trading near record highs, around $6.60 per pound, influenced by U.S. import tariffs that have incentivized significant stockpiling and created artificial tightness despite a projected global surplus [^]. Analysts indicate short-term support around $6.54 and resistance near $6.90, while consensus forecasts for 2026 generally range between $5.00 and $6.35 per pound, subject to macroeconomic factors [^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Above $6.57PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $6.39Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $6.48Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $6.51Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- -0.94
Above $6.54Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- -0.39
Above $6.60Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality68Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality68Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 94
Above $6.63Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality74Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality74Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $6.66Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality76Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality76Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $6.69Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality73Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality73Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $6.72Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality66Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality66Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $6.75Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- -0.70
Above $6.78Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above $6.81Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality65Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality65Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $6.84Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality64Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality64Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above $6.87Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 26, 2026
6. Which specific stimulus measures from the People's Bank of China in mid-2026 are most likely to influence industrial copper consumption ahead of the August 28 resolution date?
| PBOC Monetary Policy | Moderately loose (mid-2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Copper Price (Aug 26, 2026) | 6.60 USD/lb [^][^] |
| Copper All-Time High (Aug 2026) | 6.83 USD/lb [^] |
In mid-2026, the People's Bank of China implemented targeted monetary policy with specific structural tools. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) adopted a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing targeted structural tools over broad stimulus measures. Significant initiatives included a 1 trillion yuan relending facility for private enterprises, merged bond risk-sharing instruments aimed at tech innovation, and the introduction of new liquidity tools such as an overnight reverse repo facility to enhance short-term rate control [^]. The PBOC affirmed its commitment to providing stronger countercyclical support, explicitly stating it would avoid "flood-like" stimulus [^].
Copper prices recently peaked, but stimulus link remains unspecified. As of August 26, 2026, copper was trading at 6.60 USD/lb, having previously reached an all-time high of 6.83 USD/lb earlier in August; the $6.80 mark was identified as a critical resistance point [^][^]. While "China Stimulus" is noted as a potential factor for driving a copper rally towards $8, the research does not specify which of the mid-2026 stimulus measures are most likely to influence industrial copper consumption ahead of the August 28 resolution date [^].
7. What do Q2 and Q3 2026 inventory reports from the London Metal Exchange (LME) and COMEX indicate about the physical market tightness versus the projected global supply surplus?
| Global Refined Copper Surplus (2026) | 96,000 tonnes (ICSG) [^] |
|---|---|
| COMEX Share of Exchange Inventory | Nearly 70% [^][^][^] |
| Copper Price (August 26, 2026) | $6.60 per pound [^] |
Global copper inventory surplus projections conflict with observed regional market tightness. Despite projections from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) indicating a global refined copper surplus of 96,000 tonnes for 2026, Q2 and Q3 2026 inventory reports from the London Metal Exchange (LME) and COMEX reveal significant regional physical market tightness [^]. This tightness is largely due to aggressive stockpiling in U.S.-based COMEX warehouses, which now account for nearly 70% of the total exchange inventory [^][^][^]. Such actions, potentially driven by the anticipation of import tariffs, effectively "strand" metal within the U.S., thereby reducing its availability in non-U.S. markets [^][^][^].
LME inventory levels declined significantly, contributing to market backwardation. LME inventory levels experienced an approximately 49% drop from their April highs during Q2 2026 [^][^][^]. While a slight rebound occurred in August, attributed to speculative inflows aimed at mitigating regional shortages, readily available ("on-warrant") stocks remain at historically low levels [^][^][^]. This scarcity of readily available metal has contributed to a steep backwardation in the copper market [^][^][^].
Strong bullish momentum is driving copper prices upward. As of August 26, 2026, the copper price stood at $6.60 per pound, with traders observing strong bullish momentum [^][^]. Market participants assign a high probability of 91.5% that the price will be $6.54 or higher by August 28, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT [^][^].
8. How do the 2026 copper price forecasts from Chile's Cochilco and ING Group differ in their underlying assumptions about Chinese industrial demand and global mine output?
| Cochilco 2026 Copper Price Forecast | US$5.95/lb [^] |
|---|---|
| ING Group 2026 Copper Price Forecast | $11,500/t (approximately $5.22/lb) [^][^][^] |
| Cochilco 2026 China Copper Consumption | 16 million tonnes (57.6% of global demand) [^] |
Cochilco and ING Group offer distinct 2026 copper price forecasts. Cochilco anticipates a higher average price of US$5.95/lb, attributing this to strong global demand and constrained supply [^]. In contrast, ING Group forecasts $11,500/t (approximately $5.22/lb), emphasizing a mixed Chinese demand landscape and the necessity of sustained tight supply for price stability [^][^][^].
Cochilco's higher price projection stems from robust global demand. The agency forecasts a 1.9% increase in global demand, including a strong Chinese consumption projected to reach 16 million tonnes in 2026, comprising 57.6% of total global demand [^]. On the supply side, Cochilco anticipates constrained conditions, with global mine output projected at 23.5 million tonnes in 2026, a marginal 0.2% increase from 2025 [^].
ING Group views Chinese demand with a nuanced perspective. Their outlook highlights weakness in the property sector counterbalanced by positive indicators in non-property areas like grid infrastructure and electric vehicles [^][^][^]. While specific figures for ING Group's global mine output or Chinese demand projections are not provided, their analysis underscores that continued tight supply will be a critical factor in supporting copper prices [^][^][^].
9. How would the implementation of new U.S. import tariffs on copper before August 2026 affect COMEX inventory levels and futures prices?
| COMEX Copper Inventory | 675,185 metric tons (as of August 25, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Global Exchange Stock Share | Nearly 70% [^] |
| Copper Price Probability ($6.54/lb+) | 91.5% (as of August 28, 2026) [^][^][^] |
Anticipated U.S. copper tariffs have significantly increased COMEX inventory levels. While no new U.S. import tariffs on copper have been implemented before August 2026, market conditions are considerably influenced by the anticipation of potential U.S. tariffs, which are currently proposed for 2027 and 2028 [^][^][^][^][^]. This anticipation has resulted in a substantial influx of refined copper into COMEX warehouses, leading to record inventory levels of approximately 675,185 metric tons as of August 25, 2026 [^][^][^]. These inventories account for nearly 70% of the total visible global exchange copper stocks [^].
Traders exploit arbitrage by shipping copper, widening the COMEX-LME price spread. Traders are employing an arbitrage strategy to ship copper into the U.S. in advance of the feared future tariffs, a move that has widened the premium of COMEX copper futures over London Metal Exchange prices [^][^][^].
Arbitrage tightens global supply, supporting elevated prices despite no shortage. This arbitrage strategy has inadvertently tightened copper supply in the rest of the world, thereby supporting elevated prices despite a lack of global shortage [^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets reflect this optimism, with Gemini prediction markets indicating a 91.5% probability of copper prices being $6.54 per pound or higher as of August 28, 2026 [^][^][^].
10. Does recent manufacturing and construction data from mid-2026 support the high-demand forecasts for copper driven by the energy transition and AI infrastructure buildout?
| Data Center Copper Demand (2026) | 475k tonnes [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| LME Cash Copper Price | approaching $14,500/tonne [^][^][^] |
| COMEX Copper Futures Price | testing $6.90-$7.00/lb [^][^][^] |
Copper demand forecasts are strongly supported by AI and grid expansion. Recent manufacturing and construction data from mid-2026 indicate persistent demand from grid modernization and AI infrastructure provides structural support for copper [^][^][^]. The crucial role of infrastructure for artificial intelligence necessitates materials like copper. Data center demand for copper is projected to grow substantially, increasing from approximately 110k tonnes in 2025 to about 475k tonnes in 2026 [^][^][^][^][^].
Copper prices are at record highs due to supply disruptions. As of August 26, 2026, LME cash prices are approaching $14,500/tonne, while COMEX futures are testing the $6.90-$7.00/lb range, reflecting near record highs [^][^][^]. These elevated prices are primarily driven by U.S. tariff arbitrage, supply chain disruptions in regions such as the DRC and Indonesia, and low global exchange inventories. The prediction market for copper prices on August 28, 2026, is expected to settle near these current high levels, influenced by short-term macroeconomic data and market reactions to tariff changes [^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
A major upcoming catalyst is the release of China's PMI data, scheduled for August 31, 2026, which is expected to influence market sentiment regarding industrial demand [^] . Other factors driving market volatility and uncertainty include CME Group warehouse stock reports, Chinese Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, and volatility derived from implied market expectations [^]. Additionally, potential surpluses, Chinese stimulus measures, and Federal Reserve policy continue to influence price movements [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: August 28, 2026
- Expiration: September 04, 2026
- Closes: August 28, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Key market catalysts include uncertainty over potential U.S.
- Trigger: Import tariffs, which are draining global inventories as traders prioritize shipments to the U.S.
- Trigger: [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This compounds ongoing supply disruptions in Chile, Peru, and the DRC [^] , against a backdrop of structural supply deficits [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXCOPPERW-26AUG2117-T7.56: NO (Aug 21, 2026)
- KXCOPPERW-26AUG2117-T7.53: NO (Aug 21, 2026)
- KXCOPPERW-26AUG2117-T7.50: NO (Aug 21, 2026)
- KXCOPPERW-26AUG2117-T7.47: NO (Aug 21, 2026)
- KXCOPPERW-26AUG2117-T7.44: NO (Aug 21, 2026)
