Short Answer

The U.S. national average retail diesel price reached $5.9015 per gallon on September 7, 2026, settling prices for the week above $5.70 per gallon. The market prices this outcome at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market probability for higher diesel prices spiked 25 percentage points on September 7 following the announcement that the U.S. national average retail diesel price reached a record high of $5.9015 per gallon. This report followed a prior record of $5.85 per gallon set on September 4, reinforcing the sharp upward trend in the underlying physical market.
The sustained high probability is supported by both fundamental and geopolitical factors. The record prices are reportedly driven by high distillate crack spreads more than by crude oil costs. Broader volatility in energy markets, including rising Brent and WTI crude prices as of September 8, contributes to expectations of continued strength in refined product pricing.
  • Outcomes above $5.70 are firm, driven by the $5.9015 record price on September 7.
  • EIA data released September 9 will reflect this national average of $5.9015.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above $5.94 68.0% 59.1% The U.S. national average diesel price reached $5.9015 per gallon, falling below this level.
Above $5.96 68.0% 59.1% The U.S. national average retail diesel price reached $5.9015 on September 7, 2026, below this threshold.
Above $5.78 97.0% 100.0% The U.S. national average diesel price reached $5.9015 per gallon, exceeding this level.
Above $5.88 91.0% 97.6% The U.S. national average diesel price reached $5.9015 per gallon, exceeding this level.
Above $5.92 66.0% 59.1% The U.S. national average retail diesel price reached $5.9015 on September 7, 2026, below this threshold.

Current Context

U.S. retail diesel prices reached record highs in early September. On September 4, 2026, the U.S. retail diesel price hit an all-time high of $5.85 per gallon, driven primarily by record-high distillate crack spreads rather than crude oil costs alone [^]. For the week ending August 24, 2026, the U.S. Diesel Sales Price (GASDESW) was $5.652 per gallon [^]. U.S. retail diesel prices currently stand at their highest level since mid-2022 [^].
Geopolitical tensions drive current oil volatility and future price expectations. As of September 8, 2026, global oil markets remain highly volatile, with Brent and WTI prices rising [^]. Spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reached $91.48 per barrel, and Brent crude reached $96.02 per barrel on September 1, 2026 [^][^]. This increase is attributed to renewed conflict in the Middle East, concerns over supply transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing U.S.-Iran conflicts [^][^]. Key drivers for the energy environment include limited refining margins for distillates and lower global inventories [^]. Prediction markets and analysts anticipate elevated diesel prices through the remainder of 2026, with some forecasts suggesting sustained high prices due to low distillate inventories and geopolitical risks [^]. Energy market volatility in 2026 reflects a blend of inflationary geopolitical risk premiums and deflationary economic growth uncertainty [^]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issues weekly updates on gasoline and diesel prices, with releases scheduled for September 8, 15, 22, and 29, 2026 [^].

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above $6.04

📈 September 08, 2026: 23.0pp spike

Price increased from 12.0% to 35.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 23.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market "Diesel prices this week Above $6.04" on September 8, 2026, was likely the traditional news reporting of regional diesel prices. For the week ending August 31, 2026, the PADD V (West Coast District) retail price for No. 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur was reported at $6.497 per gallon, which is above the $6.04 threshold [^]. This data release, immediately preceding the prediction market's date, likely caused a rapid shift in the market's implied probability for the outcome [^]. Social media activity was not a primary driver, as there is no evidence of specific, timely posts from key figures or viral narratives tied to the $6.04 diesel price target for this period.

Outcome: Above $5.98

📈 September 07, 2026: 41.0pp spike

Price increased from 29.0% to 70.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 41.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for "Diesel prices this week" above $5.98 on September 7, 2026, was a traditional news event: the announcement that the U.S. national average retail diesel price reached a record high of $5.9015 per gallon [^][^][^]. This news, directly attributed to supply disruptions from Gulf refineries and the ongoing conflict involving Iran [^][^][^], coincided with the market movement, significantly increasing the perceived probability of prices surpassing $5.98. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified as drivers in the provided information. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver or accelerant based on the available data.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For this market, a 'Yes' resolution occurs if the determined diesel price for the current week (beginning Sunday, September 13, 10:00 PM EDT) is above the specific threshold stated in the contract, such as $6.00, $6.02, or $6.04. Conversely, a 'No' resolution triggers if the diesel price is at or below the stated threshold. The page specifies a "Max payout Sep 14, 2026", but does not explicitly state the resolution date for this specific weekly contract, nor does it detail the exact source or methodology used to determine the final diesel price.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above $5.70 $1.00 $0.01 99%
Above $5.72 $1.00 $0.01 99%
Above $5.74 $1.00 $0.03 99%
Above $5.76 $0.98 $0.03 98%
Above $5.78 $0.97 $0.04 97%
Above $5.80 $0.95 $0.07 94%
Above $5.86 $0.94 $0.08 94%
Above $5.82 $0.95 $0.07 93%
Above $5.84 $0.96 $0.05 92%
Above $5.88 $0.91 $0.10 91%
Above $5.90 $0.86 $0.15 85%
Above $5.94 $0.68 $0.33 68%
Above $5.96 $0.70 $0.32 68%
Above $5.98 $0.69 $0.32 68%
Above $5.92 $0.75 $0.27 66%
Above $6.00 $0.64 $0.38 63%
Above $6.02 $0.62 $0.40 61%
Above $6.04 $0.31 $0.71 35%
Above $6.10 $0.15 $0.89 17%
Above $6.06 $0.26 $0.76 11%
Above $6.08 $0.23 $0.80 10%

Market Discussion

As of September 8, 2026, U.S. national average diesel prices have reached nominal highs of approximately $5.90 per gallon [^][^][^][^][^], although EIA data for the week ending August 31, 2026, showed a slight week-over-week decrease to $5.599/gal [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This surge is largely attributed to a severe refining squeeze, with distillate inventories significantly below five-year averages and record crack spreads, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions pushing crude oil prices towards $95-$100 per barrel [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction market participants show a bullish sentiment for near-term energy prices, reflecting ongoing concerns over persistent inflation [^][^][^][^][^][^].

5. Trader Dashboard

A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.

Above $5.94PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)high confidence
  • Factor
move_log_odds
-0.05
Above $5.70Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Metric
—
Above $5.72Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality83Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality83Confirmedlow confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above $5.74Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality80Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality80Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above $5.76Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality76Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality76Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above $5.78Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality85Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality85Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above $5.80Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality84Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality84Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above $5.82Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality70Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality70Mostly confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
75
Above $5.84Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality84Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality84Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above $5.86Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality84Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality84Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above $5.88Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)high confidence
  • Factor
move_log_odds
-0.13
Above $5.90Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality68Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality68Mostly confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
70
Above $5.92Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality84Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality84Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above $5.96Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality77Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality77Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
84
Above $5.98Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality77Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality77Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
87
Above $6.00Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)high confidence
  • Factor
move_log_odds
0.13
Above $6.02Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality53Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality53Mixedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
56
Above $6.04Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality82Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality82Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above $6.06Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality63Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality63Mostly confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
61
Above $6.08Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality78Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality78Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
92
Above $6.10Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality72Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality72Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 8, 2026

6. Which factor is currently exerting more upward pressure on U.S. diesel prices: rising global crude oil costs (Brent/WTI) or historically high distillate crack spreads?

Distillate crack spreadRecord intraday high of $108.02/bbl (recently) [^][^][^]
October WTI contract$93.83/bbl on 2026-09-08 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]
U.S. diesel average price$5.82 per gallon (week ending September 3, 2026) [^]
Based on available evidence, there is not enough data to determine whether rising Brent/WTI costs or historically high distillate crack spreads are exerting more upward pressure on U.S. diesel prices into the week resolving September 14, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The provided data does not include distillate crack spreads or U.S. diesel price movements for that specific week, which are necessary for a comparative assessment [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While some crude-price movement context is available, the dataset lacks specific levels and week-over-week changes for U.S. diesel prices and distillate crack spreads for the precise resolution period [^][^][^][^][^][^].
However, both global crude oil costs and distillate crack spreads were significantly contributing to U.S. diesel prices as of early September 2026 [^][^][^]. As of September 8, 2026, global crude oil costs had surpassed $90/bbl due to U.S.-Iran conflict-related supply concerns, with the October WTI contract advancing 2.50% to $93.83/bbl, marking its highest level in over three months and an almost 10% increase since the start of September [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Concurrently, historically high distillate crack spreads recently reached a record intraday high of $108.02/bbl [^][^][^]. Industry analysts indicate that while crude is the dominant cost factor, the market is also uniquely affected by an acute supply crunch in refined products, allowing crack spreads to exert significant upward pressure independently of crude movements [^][^][^]. U.S. diesel prices reached a new record average of $5.82 per gallon as of the week ending September 3, 2026 [^]. The refining complex remains tight, experiencing reduced product supply from the Persian Gulf and Russia partly due to attacks on Russian refining by Ukraine [^]. It is important to differentiate between crude oil and refined oil products like diesel and gasoline [^].

7. What do the latest EIA inventory reports indicate about U.S. distillate supply levels and refining capacity utilization heading into mid-September 2026?

Commercial Distillate Stocks (late Aug 2026)104.20 million barrels [^][^][^][^][^][^]
Distillate Inventories vs 5-Year Avg14% below [^][^][^][^][^][^]
US Refinery Capacity Utilization (early Sep 2026)98% [^][^][^]
U.S. distillate supply levels remain constrained approaching mid-September 2026. Despite a minor weekly increase, U.S. distillate supply levels are lower than normal and year-ago levels [^][^][^][^][^][^]. As of late August 2026, commercial distillate stocks stood at 104.20 million barrels, marking an increase of 0.80 million barrels week-over-week. However, these inventories were 10.10 million barrels below the previous year's levels and 14% below the five-year average [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Distillate inventories on the East Coast are particularly tight, having reached historic lows [^][^][^].
U.S. refinery capacity utilization is exceptionally high with limited spare capacity. U.S. refinery throughput is currently very high and increasing, indicating intensive capacity utilization [^][^][^][^][^][^]. For the week ending August 28, 2026, refinery capacity utilization reached 97.20% and had steadily climbed through late July and August. By early September 2026, utilization achieved a multi-year peak of 98%, the highest since 2018, leaving very little spare capacity [^][^][^]. This elevated operational level comes before a projected heavy global refinery turnaround season commencing in September 2026, which is expected to further tighten supply and test the industry's ability to sustain high output [^].

8. How could renewed geopolitical escalations between the U.S. and Iran before September 14 impact tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz and affect global crude supply?

Strait of Hormuz Global Transit ShareApproximately 20-25% of global seaborne crude oil and LNG transit (historically) [^][^][^][^]
War-Risk Premiums (since outbreak)Around 10% of hull value [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]
Regional Exports Fall (July 2026)2.1 million barrels per day [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]
Renewed U.S.-Iran escalations have severely disrupted Strait of Hormuz tanker transit. Before September 14, 2026, renewed geopolitical escalations between the U.S. and Iran have led to significant disruptions in tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This critical global chokepoint, historically responsible for approximately 20-25% of global seaborne crude oil and LNG transit, is now experiencing increased war-risk premiums, tightened tanker availability, and forcing longer or alternative routing [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Since the outbreak of war, war-risk premiums for transit have been around 10% of hull value, notably deterring clean tankers more than crude carriers in June 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Disruptions have significantly reduced global crude and product supply. These transit disruptions directly reduce accessible crude and product supply, contributing to upward pressure on global crude and diesel prices [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The IEA reported in August 2026 that regional exports fell by 2.1 million barrels per day to 15 million barrels per day after the passageway was effectively closed in early July [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Consequently, global oil supply was expected to fall by 3.9 million barrels per day on average in 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The IEA also reduced its global oil demand forecast in the second half of 2026 by approximately 550 kilobarrels per day, attributing this reduction to the ongoing disruption and constrained product availability [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Conflict tightens refined product markets, increasing U.S. export demand. The ongoing conflict and attacks on infrastructure continue to constrain global crude supply and distillates such as diesel [^][^]. This situation leads to increased demand for U.S. oil and fuel exports [^][^]. The renewed escalation risk would likely further push up diesel and finished-product pricing due to higher freight costs and tighter refinery inputs, thereby tightening refined product markets [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets, as of early September 2026, indicate expectations for sustained high diesel prices, reflecting the volatility linked to the ongoing energy supply shock [^][^].

9. When exactly will the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) release the weekly diesel price data that determines this market's September 14 resolution?

Release DateWednesday, September 9, 2026 [^], [^]
Data CoverageWeek of September 7, 2026 [^], [^]
Market Resolution DateSeptember 14, 2026 [^]
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release weekly diesel price data on September 9, 2026. The EIA is scheduled to publish its weekly diesel price data on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, which will cover the week of September 7, 2026 [^], [^]. Although the EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update is typically issued every Tuesday, the release for that particular week is delayed by one day to Wednesday because Labor Day is observed on Monday, September 7, 2026 [^].
This specific EIA data determines the market's September 14 resolution. The weekly retail on-highway diesel price data, which the EIA will publish on September 9, 2026, is significant because it will serve as the relevant index for determining the market resolution on September 14, 2026 [^].

10. What does the term structure of ULSD (Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel) futures contracts expiring in late 2026 suggest about commercial traders' price expectations?

ULSD futures prices late-2026Not available [^][^]
ULSD positioning dataNot available (COT reports missing) [^][^]
Late-2026 ULSD curve typeCannot be determined (contango/backwardation) [^][^]
Analysis of ULSD futures for late-2026 is currently not possible due to insufficient data. The research evidence provided lacks crucial data points required to properly analyze the ULSD (NYMEX) futures market for maturities in late 2026. Specifically, the data did not include observed ULSD futures prices by maturity, nor did it provide COT-style commercial versus noncommercial positioning data for ULSD or distillates [^][^]. The "term structure" sub-output did not contain any ULSD futures contract prices for the late-2026 period. Furthermore, the "positioning" sub-output provided SEC 13F filings, which are not relevant for this analysis, instead of the necessary COT reports [^][^].
Consequently, determining the late-2026 ULSD curve's state is not feasible. Without these fundamental data sets, it is impossible to ascertain whether the late-2026 ULSD curve is in contango or backwardation [^][^]. Moreover, inferring commercial traders' diesel price expectations for September 2026 or any period around late-2026 is unsupported. This is because no grounded information regarding diesel or ULSD expectations for that timeframe was present in the provided research window [^][^].

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of September 8, 2026, diesel prices are elevated and volatile, driven by tight supply-demand balances, low inventories, and high refining margins (crack spreads) rather than crude costs alone [^] [^] . Robinson" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. Short-term price projections range from a bull case of $5.35/gal to a bear case of $3.60/gal, with a base case around $4.35/gal [^][^]. The U.S. average on-highway diesel for the week of August 31, 2026, was $5.599/gal, easing slightly from $5.652 on August 24, 2026, but remaining high versus earlier August levels [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Distillate inventories were 14% below the five-year average in the week ending August 28, 2026, with refineries operating at 98% capacity utilization during the same week [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Elevated crack spreads are partly attributed to supply disruptions in Russia, China, and the Middle East [^][^][^][^][^][^].
The energy market is heavily influenced by the escalating U.S.–Iran conflict, increasing the risk of prolonged disruptions to oil and gas shipping through the Strait of Hormuz [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Oil prices, including WTI and Brent, remain sensitive to these geopolitical developments [^][^][^]. As of September 8, 2026, Brent is testing $100/bbl; Goldman Sachs raised its end-of-year Brent forecast to $85/bbl and WTI to $80/bbl, factoring in potential extended shipping disruptions into 2027 [^][^][^]. Bullish catalysts include further tanker attacks, infrastructure strikes, and low global strategic reserves [^][^][^][^][^]. Conversely, demand destruction, particularly in China, and resilient non-OPEC production present bearish factors [^][^][^][^][^].
Beyond geopolitics, China's refined product export quotas are a critical factor, with high quotas potentially increasing supply and exerting bearish pressure on global diesel prices [^] [^] . AI data center expansion is identified as a bullish catalyst for electricity demand, affecting distillates/diesel [^][^][^][^]. Fluctuations in U.S. dollar strength also act as an energy market catalyst [^][^][^][^]. Bearish risks for diesel/ULSD spreads include inventory rebuild, with inventories increasing by 0.8 million barrels in the week ending August 28, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Furthermore, demand softness is observed, with the four-week average distillate product supplied down 6% year-over-year [^][^][^][^][^][^]. In July 2026, Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicated a 6.7% decrease in diesel fuel prices at the intermediate demand stage [^][^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 21, 2026
  • Closes: September 14, 2026

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: As of September 8, 2026, diesel prices are elevated and volatile, driven by tight supply-demand balances, low inventories, and high refining margins (crack spreads) rather than crude costs alone [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: Short-term price projections range from a bull case of $5.35/gal to a bear case of $3.60/gal, with a base case around $4.35/gal [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: The U.S.
  • Trigger: Average on-highway diesel for the week of August 31, 2026, was $5.599/gal, easing slightly from $5.652 on August 24, 2026, but remaining high versus earlier August levels [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXDIESELW-26SEP07-T6.40: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
  • KXDIESELW-26SEP07-T6.38: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
  • KXDIESELW-26SEP07-T6.36: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
  • KXDIESELW-26SEP07-T6.34: NO (Sep 07, 2026)
  • KXDIESELW-26SEP07-T6.32: NO (Sep 07, 2026)