How high will gas prices in New York get this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect gas prices in New York to be above $3.10 this year, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market shows a strong upward trend, with the probability of a "YES" outcome climbing from a starting point of 60.0% to its current high of 93.0%. The most significant price action occurred over a two-day period. On April 17th, the price experienced a dramatic 32.5 percentage point spike from 60.0% to 92.5%. This was immediately followed by a sharp, but partial, reversal on April 18th, with an 11.2 percentage point drop to 81.3%. The market then resumed its upward movement, eventually reaching a new high. The specific catalysts for this period of high volatility are not apparent from the provided context.
The initial price of 60.0% has served as a strong support level. The recent high of 93.0% now acts as the primary resistance level. The total trading volume of 705 contracts across the market's history suggests moderate but not exceptionally high liquidity. The fact that the sample data points show zero volume indicates that trading activity may be inconsistent or clustered around specific events.
Overall, market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish on a "YES" resolution. Despite the brief but sharp pullback on April 18th, the price quickly recovered and surpassed its previous high. This price action suggests that traders viewed the dip as a buying opportunity, reinforcing the conviction in the prevailing upward trend. The current price of 93.0% reflects a very high degree of confidence among market participants that the event will occur.
- Strait of Hormuz oil tanker war risk premiums significantly increased.
- Record-high RFS compliance costs are driving gas prices higher.
- Extensive PADD 1 refinery maintenance is anticipated throughout 2026.
- Managed money holds significantly elevated net long positions in RBOB gasoline.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.80 | 48.9% | 50.6% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $5.00 | 42.5% | 44.6% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $5.60 | 15.0% | 17.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $4.40 | 76.1% | 76.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $5.40 | 19.0% | 21.7% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $4.40
📈 April 27, 2026: 8.1pp spike
Price increased from 69.2% to 77.3%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Above $4.60
📈 April 26, 2026: 14.3pp spike
Price increased from 45.0% to 59.3%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Above $5.00
📈 April 24, 2026: 8.9pp spike
Price increased from 24.7% to 33.6%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 17, 2026: 70.2pp drop
Price decreased from 96.0% to 25.8%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Above $4.20
📉 April 18, 2026: 11.2pp drop
Price decreased from 92.5% to 81.3%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the average regular gas price for New York is strictly greater than $4.80 by December 31, 2026, as verified by AAA (gasprices.aaa.com). Otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on March 17, 2026, and will close at 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET on the day following the outcome if the condition is met early, or by December 31, 2026, at 9:55am EST if not, with payouts projected one hour after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.20 | $0.98 | $0.12 | 93% |
| Above $4.40 | $0.85 | $0.24 | 76% |
| Above $4.60 | $0.72 | $0.38 | 69% |
| Above $4.80 | $0.52 | $0.58 | 49% |
| Above $5.00 | $0.46 | $0.64 | 43% |
| Above $5.20 | $0.41 | $0.69 | 29% |
| Above $5.40 | $0.24 | $0.82 | 19% |
| Above $5.60 | $0.19 | $0.88 | 15% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score81Good
Trade quality20% of score49High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score75Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How Have War Risk Premiums for Oil Tankers Increased in 2026?
| Early 2026 Premium Surge | From 0.05% to 0.25% of hull value for Strait of Hormuz transits [1] |
|---|---|
| VLCC Cost Increase Early 2026 | From $50,000 to $250,000 per seven-day transit for a $100M VLCC [2] |
| VLCC Average Premium Q2 2026 | Between $500,000 and $1 million per voyage [3] |
Maritime insurance underwriters significantly increased war risk premiums for Strait of Hormuz transits. Driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, underwriters, notably within the Lloyd's of London market, raised premiums throughout 2026 [2]. In early March 2026, war risk coverage surged from an approximate 0.05% of a vessel's hull value to as high as 0.25% for a typical seven-day transit [1]. For a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) valued at $100 million, this increase translated to a single transit premium rising from about $50,000 to approximately $250,000 [2]. Heightened underwriter concerns were already evident when the Lloyd's Market Association Joint War Committee (JWC) classified the Gulf as a high-risk area in February 2026 [4].
War risk premiums further escalated for Q2-Q3 sailings, indicating a deepening crisis. For Q2 2026 sailings, and likely extending into Q3, premiums have remained elevated and experienced further increases. As of mid-April 2026, war risk premiums for a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) averaged between $500,000 and $1 million per voyage through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. This represents a considerable escalation compared to the initial surge earlier in the year, which pushed premiums for a $100 million VLCC to approximately $250,000 for a seven-day transit [2]. The sustained and higher average premiums for Q2-Q3 reflect a persistent and potentially intensified risk assessment by the insurance market, as underwriters grapple with the unpredictable nature and duration of the ongoing crisis when setting rates [5].
Sources (5)
- 1Gulf war risk premiums topping double-digit millions of dollars per trip:: Lloyd's Listlloydslist.com
- 2War-Risk Insurance in the Gulf: Lloyd's Market Response to the 2026 Crisis | BAHRAIN INTELLIGENCEbahrainintelligence.com
- 3Hormuz crisis deepens as oil producers, tanker owners dispute riskworldoil.com
- 4Maritime insurance premiums surge as Iran conflict widens | Reutersreuters.com
- 5Nobody would put money on duration of the Hormuz crisis. Marine insurers have no choice:: Lloyd's Listlloydslist.com
7. What PADD 1 Refinery Maintenance Is Anticipated for 2026?
| 2026 U.S. Refinery Maintenance Outlook | Anticipated to be "some of the most extensive turnaround work in years" [1] |
|---|---|
| PADD 1 Operable Refineries (Jan 2024) | 8 refineries with a total capacity of 780,500 barrels per calendar day [2] |
| PBF Energy 2026 Turnaround Plans | Plans to conduct turnaround work at most of its refineries in 2026 [3] |
PADD 1 refineries anticipate extensive maintenance work in 2026. U.S. refineries, including those supplying PADD 1, are preparing for "some of the most extensive turnaround work in years" in 2026 [1]. As of January 2024, PADD 1 comprises eight operable petroleum refineries with a total capacity of 780,500 barrels per calendar day [2]. PBF Energy, a significant operator in PADD 1 with facilities like the Delaware City refinery, has indicated plans for turnaround work at most of its sites during 2026; however, specific dates within the May-August peak demand period are not publicly detailed [3].
Specific PADD 1 maintenance details for May-August 2026 remain largely undisclosed. While the broad outlook for 2026 suggests extensive maintenance, explicit scheduled or unscheduled maintenance details for PADD 1 refineries during the May-August 2026 period are not available in the provided research. Historical data for Phillips 66's Bayway refinery illustrates potential events, such as an "ongoing" planned turnaround in 2025 [4] and an unscheduled reduction in gasoline unit rates in August 2025 due to a fire [5]. However, these examples relate to 2025 and do not offer comprehensive, specific plans for 2026.
The anticipated maintenance scope for 2026 is above the 5-year average. The qualitative assessment of the anticipated scope for 2026 suggests significant capacity outages compared to previous years [1]. This extensive maintenance follows a period of high utilization, with U.S. refinery utilization nearing multi-year seasonal highs in February 2026, indicating a potential drive for long-term operational integrity after intense usage [6]. Such a maintenance surge could notably impact PADD 1 refinery utilization, which typically experiences fluctuations [7].
Sources (7)
- 1U.S. Refineries Prepare for Maintenance Ahead of a Busy 2026industrialinfo.com
- 2East Coast (PADD 1) Number and Capacity of Petroleum Refinerieseia.gov
- 3PBF Energy Says it Plans to Conduct Turnaround Work at Most of its Refineries in 2026 - OPIS, A Dow Jones Companyopis.com
- 4Planned turnaround ongoing at Phillips 66's Bayway refinery, IIR saystradingview.com
- 5Phillips 66's Bayway refinery's gasoline unit at reduced rates after firehydrocarbonprocessing.com
- 6US Refinery Utilisation Near Multi-Year Seasonal Highs What’s sustaining the strength in US refinery runs? | Kpler - Feb 18, 2026kpler.com
- 7East Coast (PADD 1) Refinery Utilization and Capacityeia.gov
8. What is Managed Money's Current Net Long Position in RBOB Gasoline?
| Net Long Position (April 9, 2024) | 56,536 contracts [1] |
|---|---|
| 52-Week Range Percentage | 90% [1] |
| 52-Week Average Net Position | 32,596 contracts [1] |
Managed money net long positions are significantly elevated in RBOB gasoline futures. As of April 9, 2024, managed money in NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures held an aggregate net long position of 56,536 contracts [1]. This current positioning stands at 90% of its 52-week range, indicating it is near the top observed over the past year [1]. For comparison, the 52-week average net position for managed money is 32,596 contracts, suggesting an elevated level of bullish sentiment among participants compared to recent historical averages [1].
Current net long positions are elevated but below historical peak levels. While the current net long position is robust and elevated within its past year's range, it has not yet reached the absolute historical extremes that have sometimes preceded more significant price corrections [2]. For instance, managed money net long positions peaked at over 100,000 contracts in early 2022 [2]. Although periods of heightened managed money long positioning have historically been followed by price softening or corrections, the current level of 56,536 contracts is not at those all-time peaks [2]. Nonetheless, being at 90% of its 52-week range signifies a highly extended long position within the recent trading environment, which could imply increased vulnerability to market shifts [1].
9. What Are Current D6 RIN Prices and RFS Compliance Costs?
| D6 RIN Current Price | $0.75 per RIN (as of early April 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| EPA Final RFS Volume | 22.33 billion gallons annually (2026-2027) [2] |
| Valero RFS Compliance Cost | $1.4 billion (2025) [3] |
D6 RIN prices are approximately $0.75 as EPA finalizes new standards. As of early April 2026, the market price for D6 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits stands at approximately $0.75 to $0.755 per RIN, with 2026 vintage contracts specifically reported around $0.75 to $0.7540 [1]. Concurrently, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has finalized its Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) for 2026 and 2027, establishing total renewable fuel volumes at 22.33 billion gallons annually for both years [2].
EPA acknowledges challenges, as refiners anticipate record-breaking compliance costs. Despite finalized standards, the EPA has recognized that increasing advanced biofuel volumes will create compliance challenges and could lead to price increases [2]. Refiners and industry groups are projecting significantly higher RFS compliance costs for 2026. For example, CVR Energy's CEO expects 2026 compliance costs to "increase substantially" and "break all historical records" [4]. Valero reported $1.4 billion in RFS compliance expenses for 2025 and foresees the program remaining a significant cost factor in 2026 [3]. Similarly, the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) predicts record-breaking costs that will ultimately be transferred to consumers [5].
Sources (5)
- 1LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through April 2nd, 2026 | Aegis Market Insightsaegis-hedging.com
- 2EPA Renewable Fuel Standards: Mixed Outlook, Powerful 12-Point Set Two Final Rule Update for 2026–2027 | Tank Transporttanktransport.com
- 3Valero (VLO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4CVR Energy (CVI) Q3 2025 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 5AFPM: ‘Baffling’ Final RFS Will Break Cost Recordsinspectioneering.com
10. What East Coast Gasoline Inventory Levels Trigger Price Spikes?
| Latest East Coast Gasoline Days of Supply | 30.6 days (May 31, 2024) [1] |
|---|---|
| May 2024 East Coast Supply Range | 29.3 to 31.0 days [1] |
| Days of Supply Calculation Method | Total inventories divided by average daily product supplied over preceding five weeks [2] |
East Coast gasoline inventory days of supply remain stable. East Coast (PADD 1) gasoline inventory levels, measured in 'days of supply,' have recently shown stability, consistently hovering between 29 and 31 days. As of the latest available data on May 31, 2024, the region held 30.6 days of total gasoline supply [1]. Throughout May 2024, these levels fluctuated within a narrow range, specifically from 29.3 days to 31.0 days, indicating a stable trend rather than a significant upward or downward movement [1]. This 'days of supply' metric is calculated by dividing total inventories by the average daily product supplied over the preceding five weeks [2].
No specific inventory threshold triggers significant NY Harbor price increases. While low inventory levels are generally understood to contribute to market volatility and potential price increases, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) sources do not identify a specific 'days of supply' threshold that historically triggers significant price hikes in the NY Harbor spot market [3]. EIA data focuses primarily on reporting stock levels, supply, and demand metrics, and typically does not provide explicit predictive thresholds for market price triggers.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 9 markets in this series
Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-4.00: YES (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-3.80: YES (Mar 22, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-3.70: YES (Mar 19, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-3.60: YES (Mar 16, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-3.50: YES (Mar 11, 2026)
