How high will US gas prices get in Nov 2026?
Short Answer
US gas prices are likely to exceed $4.25 in November 2026, even as the national average on November 2, 2026, stood in the low-$4.10s, contributing to downward pressure on expectations for higher price levels; the market prices this at 71%, against the model's 58%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
A news report on November 1, 2026, appears to have triggered this market's most significant price movement. The report confirmed that US gasoline prices had reached a four-year high of $4.30 per gallon, causing the implied probability of prices exceeding $4.25 to spike 12 percentage points from 9.0% to 21.0%. The provided data indicates this repricing occurred on zero trading volume, suggesting it may reflect a market maker adjustment rather than trader activity.
The following day, the price fell back to 14.0%, again on zero volume. This partial reversal may represent a correction from the initial reaction to the spot price news. Other available forecasts present a mixed picture. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected an average retail price of $3.91 for 2026, well below the market's threshold. Other estimates for early November 2026 place the price in the low-to-mid $4.10s, closer to but still below the $4.25 level.
- Gas prices above $4.25 are likely due to acute crude oil supply constraints.
- Tight supply-demand balance entering November supports prices above $4.35.
- Current national average price below $4.30 lowered market expectations for that threshold.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.55 | 14.0% | 10.0% | Current national average gas prices are in the low-$4.10s, below all defined thresholds. |
| Above $4.60 | 14.0% | 9.0% | Current national average gas prices are in the low-$4.10s, below all defined thresholds. |
| Above $4.80 | 11.0% | 5.0% | Current national average gas prices are in the low-$4.10s, below all defined thresholds. |
| Above $4.40 | 18.0% | 44.0% | Current national average gas prices are in the low-$4.10s, below all defined thresholds. |
| Above $4.50 | 21.0% | 14.0% | Current national average gas prices are in the low-$4.10s, below all defined thresholds. |
Current Context
Current estimates project gas prices above $4.00 by November 2026. On November 2, 2026, the national average retail price for regular gasoline in the United States is estimated to be in the low-to-mid $4.10s, following a gradual decline from its September 2026 peak [1][2]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected the 2026 average retail gasoline price at $3.91 per gallon [3][4][5]. However, prediction markets and analysts indicate a high probability, often exceeding 75-80%, that gas prices will remain above $4.00 per gallon heading into the November 2026 midterm elections [6][7][8].
Geopolitical tensions and supply constraints drive price volatility. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and constrained oil supplies continue to drive price volatility [3][4][5]. High energy costs, particularly for gasoline and diesel, have become a major political and economic issue in the United States [1][9][10]. The ongoing U.S.-Iran war exacerbates these costs, impacting oil infrastructure and global supply chains [1][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1Petrol prices set to hit record high under Trump on eve of US electionsft.com
- 2What will a gallon of regular gas cost in the US on Nov. 2, 2026? — LLM Oddsllmodds.com
- 3Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 4Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 5Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 6Little relief expected for gas prices ahead of Election Daycnbc.com
- 7Strategist sees ‘extremely high’ risk of $5 gas by November - TTttnews.com
- 8Kalshi traders think gas prices will stay higher for longer as U.S.-Iran tensions heat back up | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwidehellenicshippingnews.com
- 9OIES Podcast - The US Midterm Elections, the Iran War and the Outlook for Global Oil Markets - Oxford Institute for Energy Studiesoxfordenergy.org
- 10Americans are still struggling with high gas prices. The pain will likely continue this fall | CNN Businesscnn.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 November 02, 2026: 61.0pp drop
Price decreased from 92.0% to 31.0%
Outcome: Above $4.30
What happened: The primary driver of the 61.0 percentage point drop in the "Above $4.30" prediction market outcome appears to be the actual AAA national average gasoline price reported on November 2, 2026, which stood at $4.1694 per gallon [1]. This price point, being below the $4.30 threshold, combined with U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts indicating a slow, gradual decrease in prices from previous levels and a low probability of reaching $4.50 by the end of November 2026, likely prompted a significant market re-evaluation [2]. With no specific social media activity or breaking news identified as a trigger in the provided information, the market adjusted to the current official data and prevailing outlook [1][2]. Social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement based on the available research.
📈 November 01, 2026: 70.0pp spike
Price increased from 22.0% to 92.0%
Outcome: Above $4.30
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market's 70 percentage point spike was the traditional news reported on November 1, 2026, confirming that US gasoline prices had touched a four-year high of $4.30 per gallon earlier in the week [3]. This information likely prompted a dramatic re-evaluation of the probability that prices would exceed $4.30 at some point in November 2026, despite a slight decline to $4.18-$4.20 per gallon on the day of the spike [3]. Conversely, President Trump's statement on November 1, 2026, that prices would "drop like a rock" after the ongoing Iran war [3], pointed to lower future prices, indicating social media was mostly noise or irrelevant to this specific upward market movement.
Sources (3)
- 1AAA Gas Pricesgasprices.aaa.com
- 2“Will the AAA national average regular gas price reach $4.50 by end of November 2026?” on Delphidelphi.fyi
- 3US gasoline touched 4-year high of $4.30/gallon mid-week but already falling to ~$4.18; Trump says prices will 'drop like a rock' after Iran war | Moves That Matterpaycheckparadox.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market determines the highest US gas price reached in November 2026. For a given price threshold (e.g., 'Above $4.25'), a YES resolution occurs if the highest US gas price recorded for November 2026 surpasses that threshold. Conversely, a NO resolution occurs if the highest price is at or below the specified threshold. Trading for this market begins on November 29, 2026, at 11:00 PM EST, with the maximum payout scheduled for the same date.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.25 | $0.58 | $0.55 | 71% |
| Above $4.45 | $0.24 | $0.89 | 62% |
| Above $4.35 | $0.36 | $0.76 | 59% |
| Above $4.30 | $0.48 | $0.57 | 31% |
| Above $4.50 | $0.15 | $0.90 | 21% |
| Above $4.40 | $0.17 | $0.85 | 18% |
| Above $4.55 | $0.14 | $0.94 | 14% |
| Above $4.60 | $0.14 | $0.95 | 14% |
| Above $4.70 | $0.06 | $0.96 | 11% |
| Above $4.80 | $0.04 | $0.98 | 11% |
| Above $4.75 | $0.07 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Above $4.65 | $0.09 | $0.96 | 3% |
Market Discussion
As of November 2, 2026, US national average retail gasoline prices are approximately $4.17 per gallon, with prediction markets assigning a high probability (>98%) that prices will remain above $4.16 for the week [1][2][3]. Prediction markets for November 2026 suggest a 71% probability that prices will exceed $4.25, with global oil market deficits and disruptions from the ongoing war with Iran driving these higher fuel costs [4][1][5]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected an average retail gasoline price of $3.91 per gallon for 2026 in its October forecast, acknowledging the upward pressure from market conditions [6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1Petrol prices set to hit record high under Trump on eve of US electionsft.com
- 2Little relief expected for gas prices ahead of Election Daycnbc.com
- 3US gas prices this week Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 4How high will US gas prices get in Nov 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 5Oil Market Report - October 2026 - IEAiea.org
- 6Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 7Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score76Good
Market integrity is low (62), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score30High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score67Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What potential production decisions from the next OPEC+ meeting could significantly impact US gas prices before the end of November 2026?
| OPEC+ Production Target Status | Maintained existing targets for November 2026 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| OPEC+ Policy Change Outlook | Unlikely before 2027 [1][2][3] |
| U.S. Retail Gasoline Price Forecast (Nov 2026) | Likely to reach or exceed $4.30–$4.35 [4][5][6][7] |
OPEC+ decisions are not expected to impact US gas prices. In early October 2026, core OPEC+ members decided to maintain existing production targets for November 2026 and have indicated that further production policy changes are unlikely before 2027 [1][2][3]. Given this decision, OPEC+ supply policies are expected to remain steady throughout November 2026 [8]. Therefore, no potential production decisions from the group are anticipated to significantly impact U.S. gas prices before the end of November 2026 [1][2][3].
Other factors will likely influence US gas prices during this period. While OPEC+ supply policies remain stable, U.S. gas prices are significantly influenced by other factors such as distillate inventory tightness and the potential for additional U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases [8]. As of early November 2026, prediction markets suggest U.S. retail gasoline prices are likely to reach or exceed $4.30–$4.35 during the month, though the precise ceiling remains highly variable [4][5][6][7]. Market participants currently assign a high probability of 91% to a new SPR release announcement before the end of 2026 [9].
Sources (9)
- 1Press Releasesopec.org
- 2OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steadycnbc.com
- 3OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steadyreuters.com
- 4How high will US gas prices get in Nov 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 5How high will US gas prices get in Nov 2026? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 6How high will US gas prices get in Nov 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 7How high will US gas prices get in Nov 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 8Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
- 9Will the U.S. announce a new SPR release before 2027? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
7. What does the crude oil futures curve for contracts expiring in late 2026 indicate about market expectations for supply constraints?
| Crude Oil Futures Market | Severe backwardation (early November 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Long-Term Price Expectations | Overstated by current market structure [3][2][4] |
| US Gas Price Outlook | High probability of remaining high (November 2026) [5][6] |
Crude oil futures show severe backwardation, indicating acute supply constraints. As of early November 2026, the crude oil futures market is characterized by severe backwardation, which points to acute supply constraints and physical shortages, largely due to ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East [1][2]. This market structure also reflects concerns over constrained global supply flows and a heightened sensitivity to further supply shocks [3][2][4].
Market structure overstates long-term prices, increasing market vulnerability. The current market structure is considered to be overstating long-term price expectations because of the extreme premium placed on immediate physical delivery [3][2][4]. Furthermore, the erosion of global commercial and strategic petroleum reserves has left the market highly vulnerable to additional supply disruptions, thus preventing a return to lower, pre-conflict price regimes [3][2][4].
November 2026 market expectations include significant price volatility. Market expectations for November 2026 anticipate significant price volatility driven by concerns over constrained global supply flows [3][6]. Prediction markets for November 2026 US gas prices reflect a high probability that prices will remain elevated, a situation tied to crude supply constraints, limited refined product inventory buffers, and seasonal demand [5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1Crude Oil WTI Nov '26 (CLX26)barchart.com
- 2Convenience Yields, Risk Premiums, and the Interpretation...federalreserve.gov
- 3Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
- 4Commodities June outlook: An illusion of abundanceaberdeeninvestments.com
- 5How high will US gas prices get in Nov 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 6US Gas Price Forecast 2026 — Three Scenarios to Year-Endglobal-energy-flow.com
8. How do the EIA's Q4 2026 gasoline price forecasts compare with projections from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan?
| EIA 2026 Annual Average Gasoline Price | $3.91 per gallon [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs Q4 2026 WTI Crude Oil Forecast | $55 per barrel [3] |
| Prediction Market November 2026 Gasoline Price | >70% chance of reaching $4.25 per gallon [4][5] |
Direct Q4 2026 gasoline price forecasts from major institutions are largely unavailable for comparison. Direct Q4 2026 gasoline price forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are not available in the provided research for a direct comparison. Specifically, no specific Q4 2026 gasoline price forecasts from Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan were found in the available research.
Related forecasts offer insights into broader energy market expectations. While direct Q4 2026 gasoline prices were not found, the EIA projected an annual average U.S. retail gasoline price of $3.91 per gallon for 2026 [1][2]. Goldman Sachs' 2026 Commodities Outlook provided a forecast for WTI crude oil prices to average $52 per barrel for the year, with Q4 2026 projections at $55 per barrel [3]. The outlook also included a Henry Hub natural gas forecast of $4.83 per mmBtu for 2026 [3]. Complementing these institutional projections, prediction markets in early November 2026 indicated a probability exceeding 70% that U.S. gas prices would reach or surpass $4.25 per gallon during that month [4][5].
Sources (5)
- 1Short-Term Energy Outlook: U.S. Petroleum productseia.gov
- 2Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
- 32026 Outlook: Ride the Power Race and Supply Wavesgoldmansachs.com
- 4How high will US gas prices get in Nov 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 5How high will US gas prices get in Nov 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
9. What trend do the EIA's weekly gasoline inventory reports from September and October 2026 reveal about the supply-demand balance heading into November?
| Total Motor Gasoline Inventories (Late Oct 2026) | Approximately 209.2 million barrels [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Total Motor Gasoline Inventories (Late Sep 2026 Low) | 204.4 million barrels [1][2][3] |
| U.S. Retail Regular Gasoline Price (Week Ending Oct 26, 2026) | $4.269/gallon [4] |
Gasoline inventories showed a tight supply-demand balance entering November. Weekly reports from September and October 2026 indicated a generally tight supply-demand balance leading into November [5][4][6]. Despite some modest builds in gasoline stocks, overall inventory levels remained below the five-year average, contributing to continued price volatility [5][4][6]. Concurrently, U.S. retail regular gasoline prices experienced a slight decline in late October 2026, falling from $4.33 per gallon in mid-October to $4.269 per gallon for the week ending October 26, 2026 [4].
Total motor gasoline inventories recovered but remained lean compared to averages. U.S. total motor gasoline inventories ended October 2026 at approximately 209.2 million barrels [1][2][3]. This represented a recovery from a low of 204.4 million barrels recorded in late September [1][2][3]. However, even with this recovery, these inventory levels were still considered lean when compared to the five-year average [1][2][3].
Sources (6)
- 1Stocks of Total Motor Gasolineeia.gov
- 2United States Gasoline Stocks Changetradingeconomics.com
- 3US Gasoline Inventory: 209.2M bbl (October 23, 2026 EIA)thevaultreport.com
- 4Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update - U.S. Energy Information...eia.gov
- 5Weekly Petroleum Status Reporteia.gov
- 6US crude and distillate inventories fall, gasoline stocks rise,...reuters.com
10. What is the likelihood and potential price impact of a significant release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) ahead of the November 2026 midterms?
| Final major SPR release volume | 40 million barrels (late October 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Strategic Petroleum Reserve level | Lowest since 1982 [1] |
| Probability of further SPR announcements | 91% before 2027 [2] |
Official statements indicate significant Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases have concluded. The Trump administration completed its final major Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) oil exchange, a 40-million-barrel release, in late October 2026 [1]. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has indicated that further large-scale drawdowns are unlikely, with refill operations expected to commence soon. This position is reinforced by the SPR reaching its lowest levels since 1982, which significantly curtails the administration's capacity for future substantial releases without a major national emergency [1].
Prediction markets suggest a high probability of additional SPR announcements. Despite the completion of these major releases and the stated unlikelihood of further drawdowns, some prediction markets maintain a high probability, specifically 91%, for additional SPR announcements before 2027 [2]. This suggests ongoing market uncertainty regarding potential government intervention should prices unexpectedly surge [2].
Gas prices are predicted to exceed $4.25 per gallon by November 2026. Prediction markets also forecast a 71% probability that the national average gas price will surpass $4.25 per gallon in November 2026, with a 62% likelihood of prices rising above $4.45 [3]. The provided information does not detail the specific price impact of a significant SPR release. The 2026 midterm elections are anticipated to have a negligible effect on domestic oil production [4].
Sources (4)
- 1US Awards Last of Trump's Massive Strategic Oil Reserve...finance.yahoo.com
- 2Will the U.S. announce a new SPR release before 2027? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 3How high will US gas prices get in Nov 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 4US midterm elections to have little impact on oil output,...spglobal.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Prediction markets indicate elevated gas prices through November 2026. Public.com's market for November 2026 shows a 71% probability for prices "Above $4.25," alongside 59% for "Above $4.35" and 62% for "Above $4.45" [1]. A Kalshi market covering late November 2026 implies a 75% chance of gas above $3.90 and a 57% chance above $4.00, with lower chances for $4.10 at 36% [2]. Ahead of the November 3 midterms, CNBC reported prediction-market odds of 87% for the AAA national-average gas price to remain above $4.00, but only a 42% chance for it to exceed $4.25 specifically on Election Day [3].
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects an annual average retail gasoline price of $3.91/gal for 2026 [4]. Fuel costs have surged since the war against Iran began in February [5]. On November 2, 2026, a Financial Times analysis stated the U.S. average petrol level was poised to exceed $3.46, while AAA showed the price at $4.17 on Sunday, remaining below Biden's peak of $5.02 [5]. OPEC+ plans to pause additional production increases into Q1 2026 and keep quotas unchanged through end-2026, which can limit downside pressure from supply policy [6]. Conversely, other analysts expect 2026 oil price easing under ample supply [7].
ING highlights that Hormuz and refined-product market tightness are key to the oil and gas price regime [8]. Their base case suggests stalled tightness until before the November mid-term elections, followed by potential stabilization [8]. Cited scenarios include a pessimistic fourth-quarter Brent average up to about $104/bbl [9].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 30, 2026
- Expiration: December 07, 2026
- Closes: November 30, 2026
Sources (9)
- 1How high will US gas prices get in Nov 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 2Gas prices in the US next month? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 3Little relief expected for gas prices ahead of Election Daycnbc.com
- 4Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 5Petrol prices set to hit record high under Trump on eve of US electionsft.com
- 6Monitoring of OPEC quotas - HCOB Economicshcob-bank.com
- 7Crude Prices Pressured by Concerns About a Global Oil Glut — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 8Brent: Updated price paths as Persian Gulf flows shift – ING — Octavn.octabroker.com
- 9Brent: Updated price paths as Persian Gulf flows shift – ING — Octaen.octabroker.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAAAGASMAXM-26OCT30-5.00: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXM-26OCT30-4.95: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXM-26OCT30-4.90: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXM-26OCT30-4.85: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXM-26OCT30-4.80: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
