How high will gas prices in Florida get this year?

The EIA initially predicted significantly lower gasoline prices for 2026. This forecast projected U.S. regular retail gasoline prices would average approximately $2.90 to $3.00 per gallon, a notable decrease from averages in 2025 and 2024 ^[1][2][3][4]. This projection was based on expectations that crude oil's contribution to retail gasoline prices would fall below 45% in 2026 and 2027, with Brent crude prices anticipated to average around $51 per barrel ^[7][2][4]. Furthermore, the International Energy Agency (IEA) foresaw increased oil production from OPEC+ members, boosting global supply, while the EIA also projected reduced consumer spending on gasoline and a general deceleration of demand growth following a post-pandemic surge ^[2][8][9].

However, several factors led to market expectations of much higher prices. Geopolitical tensions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, significantly impacted global oil and gas markets by removing an estimated 20% of worldwide supplies and adding a $20–$30 per barrel "war premium" to crude oil prices ^[10]. Domestically, substantial maintenance turnarounds at Gulf Coast refineries and other outages created regional fuel shortages, contributing to tight market conditions and lower gasoline inventories ^[10][7]. Additionally, Florida's expanding population and recovering tourism sector fueled increased gasoline consumption, further tightening supply ^[11]. Reflecting these shifts, the EIA considerably raised its 2026 U.S. regular gasoline retail price projection in April 2026 to an average of $3.70 per gallon, an increase from its March forecast ^[5]. The EIA also forecast retail gasoline prices to peak at nearly $4.30 per gallon in April ^[6][5], with national averages reportedly spiking to $4.58 per gallon in some regions by early May 2026 ^[10].

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season poses significant risks to Gulf of Mexico oil production and refining capabilities. Disruptions to crude oil output, offshore production, and refinery operations are possible ^[3]. The Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast is particularly vulnerable, as it hosts approximately half of the total U.S. refining capacity ^[1]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that over 1.0 million barrels per day of refining capacity could be temporarily taken offline in anticipation of a major storm ^[1].

Hurricane forecasts indicate activity, though El Niño might lessen Gulf risks. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to include 11–16 named storms and 4–7 hurricanes, with 3–5 expected to impact the U.S. ^[2]. AccuWeather cautions that even near-to-below-average storm counts do not negate risk, given the potential for rapid intensification and an elevated risk period from June through early August ^[2]. However, historical data suggests that El Niño conditions typically reduce the likelihood of Gulf hurricane formation during June to August, indicating a 57% chance of a named storm and a 14% chance of a hurricane in El Niño years ^[4].

Florida's gasoline supply chain faces potential hurricane-induced price increases. Hurricanes can interrupt the petroleum product supply chains that serve Florida, directly impacting retail gasoline prices within the state ^[1]. This disruption of supply chains represents the primary mechanism linking Atlantic hurricane activity to fluctuations in Florida's pump prices ^[1].

Gasoline prices surged in tourism-heavy states during early 2026. Florida, Texas, and Nevada, all states with significant tourism and no income tax, experienced notable increases in gasoline prices ^[1][2]. Among these, Texas generally maintained the lowest prices, while Nevada consistently recorded the highest, with Florida's prices positioned between the two ^[1]. These states, mirroring a broader national trend, were significantly impacted by rising fuel costs ^[1][2].

Each state experienced substantial year-over-year gasoline price increases through April. Florida's gasoline prices began at $2.83 in January 2026, climbed to $3.90 in March, and reached between $4.06 and $4.22 in April, failing to meet its earlier forecast ^[7][8][1][2]. This represented a 33-37% year-over-year increase for Florida in April 2026 ^[1][2]. Texas, which consistently had the lowest prices, saw an ascent from $2.55 in February to $3.61 in March and $3.74-$3.77 in April, reflecting a 36-41% year-over-year increase by April 2026 ^[3][4][1][2]. Nevada registered the highest prices, ranging from $3.37-$3.88 in January, hitting $4.98 in April, and exceeding $5 by late April, marking a 26-28% year-over-year increase for April 2026 ^[5][1][2][6].

National crude oil prices and ongoing conflict fueled widespread price hikes. The surge in prices across these states mirrored a national trend where the average gasoline price increased by 62%, from $2.81 in January to $4.56 in May ^[9][5][10]. This national rise was primarily driven by crude oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel due to the Iran war ^[9][5][10]. Should the conflict persist, national gasoline prices could potentially reach $5 or more ^[9][5][10]. Furthermore, Florida and Nevada may encounter even higher price peaks in the third and fourth quarters, influenced by factors such as hurricane activity and increased tourism demand ^[11].

Direct historical correlation between Florida gas prices and refinery utilization is not explicitly published. While the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides monthly data for Florida retail gasoline prices and U.S. percent utilization of refinery operable capacity, spanning several decades, an explicit historical correlation between these two data series during the peak summer driving season (June-August) is not readily available ^[1][2]. The necessary data for such a computation are, however, available ^[1][2].

Refinery utilization typically peaks in summer, impacting Florida's vulnerable market. The EIA notes that refinery runs and utilization generally reach their highest levels during the second and third quarters, coinciding with the period of highest summer fuel demand ^[3][4]. This pattern suggests a link between refinery utilization levels and potential tightness in the summer gasoline market, which can influence retail prices ^[3][4]. Florida's gasoline market is especially susceptible to tightness and volatility because it relies heavily on shipped-in gasoline, lacking major pipeline connections to extensive supply hubs ^[5][6]. This dependency means that Florida's retail prices can react swiftly to changes in production, utilization, or logistics ^[5][6]. This information is pertinent to prediction markets, such as those tracking Florida's average regular gasoline price levels and resolving by specific dates like December 31, 2026 ^[7][8].

OPEC+ and SPR releases create significant supply uncertainties for Florida gas prices. On May 3, 2026, OPEC+ approved a production adjustment to increase supply by +188,000 bpd from prior voluntary reductions, starting in June 2026, with flexibility for modification based on market conditions ^[1][2]. This increase could pose an upside risk to Florida gas prices if supply remains tight despite the additional barrels ^[1][2]. In contrast, the US Department of Energy authorized a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release of 172 million barrels on March 11, 2026, as part of a larger IEA-coordinated effort ^[3][4]. This release, which commenced the following week and is expected to take approximately 120 days to deliver, has the potential to reduce crude and refined-product price pressure throughout 2026, potentially moderating Florida retail gasoline prices if absorbed as intended ^[3][4].

Elevated hurricane risk presents another critical supply disruption to Florida's fuel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration states that Florida primarily receives its fuel supplies from Gulf Coast refineries via barges ^[5]. Given a forecasted elevated hurricane risk for the Gulf/Florida exposure zone, any storm-related disruptions to refineries or transfer operations before year-end 2026 could tighten local supply and lead to higher Florida gas prices, even without changes in OPEC+ policy ^[5][6]. These supply shocks, if they move wholesale benchmarks within 2026, can affect the payout risk distribution for the Florida 'gas prices this year' prediction market, which resolves based on AAA's average regular gas price for Florida at a strict December 31, 2026 threshold ^[7].

The rapid escalation of gas prices in Florida, reaching approximately $4.46 per gallon for regular unleaded as of early May 2026, is largely attributed to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the Iran war and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz, which has driven up crude oil prices globally ^[1][2][3][4]. This geopolitical tension remains the most significant bullish catalyst, with any disruptions to oil supply from the Strait of Hormuz capable of causing sharp price increases ^{[5][2][6][1][3][4]}. Crude oil typically accounts for over half of the retail gasoline price ^[1][7]. There is a 70% chance of prices going above $4.90, a 53% chance of them surpassing $5.10, and a 46% chance of reaching above $5.30 by December 31, 2026 ^[8]. Short-term volatility, with spikes of 20% or more over a few weeks, remains a distinct possibility for Florida ^[5].

Several additional factors are expected to influence Florida's gas prices, including seasonal demand from tourism and hurricane season which can lead to local price spikes ^[5][2][9]. Decreasing U.S. refinery capacity in 2026 could also offset some benefits of lower crude oil prices, particularly in certain regions ^[7]. While overall global oil demand growth is expected to slow due to increased electric vehicle adoption and efficiency gains, major producers are likely to manage supply to defend a price floor ^[10]. Despite these factors, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) had projected average U.S. gasoline prices to be around $2.90 per gallon in 2026, based on an expectation of global crude oil supply increases outpacing demand and crude oil prices falling to their lowest annual average since 2020 ^[5][11][7]. High gas prices are also contributing to inflation and can impact consumer spending habits ^[4].