How high will gas prices in Texas get this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect gas prices in Texas to reach above $2.60 this year, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This prediction market has demonstrated a strong upward trend, starting at a 44.0% probability and currently trading at 78.0%. The most notable activity occurred in late April 2026, characterized by extreme volatility and a rapid price increase. After a sharp 10.0 percentage point drop to a low of 37.0% on April 21st, the market reversed course dramatically. It experienced a series of significant daily spikes, including gains of 9.0, 10.0, 8.0, and 12.0 percentage points between April 22nd and April 28th, pushing the probability to a high of 84.0%. The provided context does not offer specific news or events to explain the cause of this sudden and aggressive rally.
From a technical perspective, the price level of 37.0% established on April 21st acted as a strong support base, from which the subsequent rally was launched. The market is now approaching a potential resistance area near its recent peak of 84.0% and the all-time high of 88.0%. The total volume of 1,299 contracts, combined with recent trading activity seen in the sample data, suggests that market participation has increased during this period of high volatility. This rising volume alongside the price surge indicates growing conviction among traders. Overall, the price action reflects a powerful shift in market sentiment, with participants now assigning a very high probability to the "YES" outcome for this market.
- PADD 3 refinery maintenance is projected significantly above average.
- Strong PADD 3 gasoline export volumes are tightening regional supply.
- Over 1.4 million BBL/d PADD 3 refinery capacity is offline Q2-Q3.
- A somewhat below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is forecasted.
- Recent market activity shows several significant upward price movements.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.00 | 78.0% | 75.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $4.40 | 41.0% | 39.3% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $4.60 | 23.0% | 24.7% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $4.20 | 67.0% | 64.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $5.40 | 12.0% | 11.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $4.20
📈 April 29, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 58.0% to 67.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 24, 2026: 16.0pp spike
Price increased from 41.0% to 57.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Above $4.00
📈 April 28, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 72.0% to 84.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 26, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 59.0% to 67.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 23, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 46.0% to 56.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if the average regular gas price for Texas, as reported by AAA, is strictly greater than $4.40 at any point by December 31, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." If the "Yes" condition is met, the market closes on the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET; otherwise, it closes by December 31, 2026, 9:55am EST. Payout is projected 1 hour after closing in either case.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.00 | $0.87 | $0.23 | 78% |
| Above $4.20 | $0.70 | $0.40 | 67% |
| Above $4.40 | $0.44 | $0.58 | 41% |
| Above $5.00 | $0.24 | $0.83 | 25% |
| Above $4.60 | $0.31 | $0.79 | 23% |
| Above $4.80 | $0.20 | $0.83 | 20% |
| Above $5.40 | $0.11 | $0.95 | 12% |
| Above $5.20 | $0.15 | $0.91 | 10% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score81Good
Trade quality20% of score41High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score73Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What are the predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
| Predicted Named Storms | 11 [1] |
|---|---|
| Predicted Major Hurricanes | 2 [1] |
| US Gulf Coast Major Hurricane Landfall Chance | 28% [1] |
CSU forecasts a somewhat below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. On April 9, the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project released its initial forecast, predicting a season characterized by fewer storms than average [1]. Specifically, the outlook anticipates a total of 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, which are defined as Category 3 or higher [1].
Landfall probabilities suggest a significant risk for the U.S. Gulf Coast. The CSU team also provided landfall probabilities, indicating a 28% chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall along the broader U.S. Gulf Coast, encompassing the area from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas [1]. When considering specific regions, both the Texas Coast (from Corpus Christi to Brownsville) and the Louisiana Coast (from Intracoastal City to Morgan City) are assigned a 7% probability for a major hurricane landfall [2]. It is important to note that specific predictions from NOAA for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season are not yet available [3].
Sources (3)
7. What PADD 3 refining capacity is projected for 2026 maintenance?
| PADD 3 Refining Capacity Offline Q2-Q3 2026 | Over 1.4 million BBL/d [1] |
|---|---|
| Increase over 5-year average | 25% [1] |
| Maintenance Period | Q2 and Q3 2026 [1] |
PADD 3 expects over 1.4 million BBL/d offline in Q2-Q3 2026. Over 1.4 million barrels per day (BBL/d) of refining capacity in the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) is projected to be offline for planned maintenance, or turnarounds, during the second and third quarters of 2026, according to energy infrastructure intelligence providers [1]. This figure represents the substantial volume of upcoming maintenance activities in the region.
PADD 3 maintenance in 2026 exceeds the five-year average by 25%. This scheduled maintenance represents a notable increase compared to historical averages for the period. The projected volume of over 1.4 million BBL/d for Q2 and Q3 2026 indicates a 25% increase over the five-year average for the same period [1]. This suggests a particularly busy period for refinery maintenance in PADD 3.
8. What is the Current Trend in US Gulf Coast Gasoline Exports and Arbitrage?
| Transatlantic Gasoline Arbitrage Trend | Recently spiked due to firmer European Brent gasoline (EBOB) physicals and U.S. export crunch [1] |
|---|---|
| U.S. Gasoline Exports May-July | Reached new seasonal highs [2] |
| PADD 3 Export Bookings May-June 2026 | Tracking significantly above the seasonal norm [2] |
Quantified data on U.S. Gulf Coast gasoline arbitrage spreads is limited. While explicit quantification of the arbitrage spread trend between U.S. Gulf Coast conventional gasoline (CBOB) futures and landed prices in Latin American import markets, such as Mexico, is not detailed in the available research, broader market indicators point to a dynamic and potentially challenging arbitrage environment. The overall arbitrage outlook is currently seen as threatening the RBOB complex [3]. Furthermore, transatlantic (TA) gasoline arbitrages have recently experienced a significant increase, driven by stronger European Brent gasoline (EBOB) physicals and an ongoing U.S. export crunch [1].
PADD 3 gasoline export bookings are significantly above seasonal norms. Regarding May-June 2026 cargo bookings for gasoline exports from PADD 3 (U.S. Gulf Coast), available data indicates that exports are tracking significantly above the seasonal norm. U.S. gasoline exports across May, June, and July have achieved new seasonal high records [2]. Considering that the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) functions as a primary hub for both total product and conventional motor gasoline exports [4], this strong performance in overall U.S. gasoline exports suggests that cargo bookings originating from this region for May-June 2026 are robust and surpassing typical seasonal volumes.
Sources (4)
- 1Gasoline TA arbs spike on firmer EBOB physicals, US export crunchqcintel.com
- 2U.S. gasoline exports in May, June, and July reach new seasonal highs - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 3Geopolitical premium fuels gasoline flat prices, while arbitrage outlook threatens RBOB complex | Spartaspartacommodities.com
- 4Gulf Coast (PADD 3) Exports of Conventional Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)eia.gov
9. Can PADD 3 Gasoline Inventories Be Predicted Before July 2026?
| Primary Data Source | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) [1] |
|---|---|
| Inventory Data | Weekly Gulf Coast (PADD 3) ending stocks of total gasoline [1] |
| Prediction Status | Not possible with certainty; based on historical data [1] |
Forecasting PADD 3 gasoline inventory levels with certainty is not possible. Predicting whether Gulf Coast (PADD 3) total gasoline inventories will drop below the 5-year seasonal average for three consecutive weeks before July 1, 2026, requires forecasting future market conditions, production, and demand, which is beyond the scope of available historical data [1]. The research focuses on factual data rather than market prediction or speculation about future inventory movements.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) offers crucial data for tracking inventories. The EIA provides weekly data on Gulf Coast (PADD 3) ending stocks of total gasoline, which allows for tracking historical inventory levels and calculating the 5-year seasonal average [1]. A sustained drop below this average would signify a tightening of regional supply buffers. The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Reports (WPSR) offer comprehensive U.S. and regional petroleum supply data, including for PADD 3, with archived reports providing insights into past conditions [2].
Monitoring EIA reports as they are released is essential for observing actual trends. While the original question may relate to prediction markets concerning future Texas gas prices [3], direct observation of real-time data is necessary. Closely tracking the EIA's weekly reports will be critical for observing actual trends in PADD 3 gasoline inventories relative to their seasonal average closer to the specified timeframe [1].
10. Are 2026 South Region VMT Forecasts for Holidays Available?
| Memorial Day 2025 Travelers | 45.1 million Americans [1] |
|---|---|
| July 4th Week 2025 Travelers | 72.2 million Americans [2] |
| Memorial Day 2024 Travelers | Nearly 44 million [3] |
Specific 2026 regional vehicle miles traveled forecasts are unavailable in the research. The provided web research does not contain the specific year-over-year percentage change forecasts for vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the South region for AAA's official 2026 Memorial Day and Independence Day travel forecasts. Furthermore, the sources do not include any comparison to pre-release consensus estimates from energy analysts for these specific figures.
Recent AAA forecasts detail overall domestic travel volumes for 2024 and 2025. The available sources predominantly provide travel forecasts for 2025 and 2024, focusing on the total number of Americans expected to travel domestically. For instance, AAA news releases from May 2025 indicated that 45.1 million Americans were expected to travel for Memorial Day [1], and a record 72.2 million for the July 4th week in 2025 [2]. Similarly, 2024 forecasts reported nearly 44 million travelers for Memorial Day [3]. These forecasts discuss overall travel volumes but do not detail regional VMT percentage changes, nor do they extend to 2026 or offer comparisons with energy analyst predictions.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 9 markets in this series
Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-3.80: YES (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-3.60: YES (Mar 20, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-3.40: YES (Mar 17, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-3.20: YES (Mar 11, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-3.00: YES (Mar 07, 2026)
