Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect gas prices in Texas to fall below $2.30 this year, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market, which asks how low Texas gas prices will fall in 2026, has experienced a significant upward trend, moving from a starting probability of 10.0% to a current price of 28.0%. The most notable activity occurred in a concentrated period during mid-April 2026. The market saw a rapid series of price spikes: a 12.0 percentage point jump on April 16th, a 10.0 point jump on April 18th, and another 9.0 point jump on April 24th. These movements collectively pushed the price from a stable low of 14.0% to a peak of 36.0%, indicating a sudden and dramatic shift in trader expectations. The current price of 28.0% represents a slight pullback from that peak.
The specific cause for the sharp increases in probability during April is not identifiable from the available information. The initial price range of 10.0% to 14.0% acted as a clear support level for a significant period before the breakout. The peak of 36.0% now serves as the primary resistance level. The total traded volume of 928 contracts suggests moderate but not exceptionally high liquidity. The concentration of price action in a short period implies that this volume likely occurred during the spikes, signaling strong conviction behind the moves.
Overall, the chart indicates a powerful shift in market sentiment. Traders began with a low expectation (a 1-in-10 chance) that gas prices would reach the target low. The rapid ascent to 36.0% shows a sudden surge in belief that the event is much more probable than previously thought. The subsequent consolidation around 28.0% suggests that while some of the initial momentum has faded, the market's baseline expectation remains significantly higher than its historical average, reflecting a sustained increase in the perceived likelihood of very low gas prices in Texas this year.
  • EIA forecasts lower oil prices in 2026.
  • Seasonal demand reduction expected to drive Texas prices down.
  • Shift to winter-grade gasoline in September will lower prices.
  • PADD 3 gasoline inventories for 2026 are projected significantly lower.
  • Texas Gulf Coast refinery maintenance reduces capacity in Q3 and Q4.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Below $1.80 6.0% 4.7% Despite lower PADD 3 inventories, historical data supports prices falling below $2.20.
Below $2.30 28.0% 23.1% EIA forecasts lower oil prices in 2026.
Below $1.90 2.0% 4.7% Despite lower PADD 3 inventories, historical data supports prices falling below $2.20.
Below $2.20 30.0% 23.1% Despite lower PADD 3 inventories, historical data supports prices falling below $2.20.
Below $2.00 17.0% 13.1% Despite lower PADD 3 inventories, historical data supports prices falling below $2.20.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Below $2.30

📈 April 24, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 27.0% to 36.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📈 April 18, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 17.0% to 27.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: Below $2.20

📈 April 23, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 17.0% to 27.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📉 April 19, 2026: 11.0pp drop

Price decreased from 30.0% to 19.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: Below $2.10

📉 April 17, 2026: 23.0pp drop

Price decreased from 29.0% to 6.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to YES if the average regular gas price for Texas is strictly below $2.30 by December 31, 2026, as verified by AAA. If prices are $2.30 or higher by that date, the market resolves to NO. The market opened on January 6, 2026, and closes either when the YES outcome occurs (leading to a payout approximately 1 hour after the following 10:15 AM, 11 AM, or 3 PM ET) or by December 31, 2026, at 9:55 AM EST if the event has not occurred.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Below $2.20 $0.31 $0.79 30%
Below $2.10 $0.26 $0.81 29%
Below $2.30 $0.33 $0.76 28%
Below $2.00 $0.20 $0.89 17%
Below $1.80 $0.11 $0.95 6%
Below $1.90 $0.09 $0.95 2%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 70 Good

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score79Good
Trade quality20% of score33High Risk
Trust score70Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
70Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXAAAGASMINTX-26DEC31-1.90 carried 84% of its $55 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 67d old)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
32Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

6 contracts · worst first

Below $2.205
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Below $2.105
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Below $2.305
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Below $1.8027
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Below $1.9032
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Below $2.0035
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
69Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

6 contracts · worst first

Below $2.3068
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Below $1.8069
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Below $2.20—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Below $2.10—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Below $2.00—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Below $1.90—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

6 contracts · worst first

Below $2.20100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below $2.10100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below $2.00100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below $1.90100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below $2.30100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below $1.80100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
33High Risk

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 33 (notional-weighted across 6 scored legs)

Below $2.205Market scoreLiquidity5Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 5
Liquidity
5 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below $2.105Market scoreLiquidity5Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 5
Liquidity
5 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below $2.0035Market scoreLiquidity35Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 35
Liquidity
35 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below $1.9032Market scoreLiquidity32Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 32
Liquidity
32 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below $2.305Market scoreLiquidity5Move quality68Rule clarity100
Why 5
Liquidity
5 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
68 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Below $1.8027Market scoreLiquidity27Move quality69Rule clarity100
Why 27
Liquidity
27 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
69 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

6. How Would 2026 WTI Price Floor Affect Texas Gasoline?

EIA 2026/2027 Oil Price ForecastLower oil prices due to persistent stock builds (EIA [1])
Crude Oil Share in Retail GasolineTypically 50% to 60% of retail price (Historical [2])
Crack Spread DefinitionRefiner's profit margin converting crude oil into products (Historical [3])
Major energy agencies do not provide explicit 2026 WTI price floors. While specific numerical forecasts for the 2026 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price floor from major energy agencies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and OPEC are not explicitly detailed in the provided research, the EIA projects a trend of lower oil prices. The EIA forecasts "lower oil prices in 2026 and 2027 due to persistent stock builds" [1]. The IEA also publishes monthly Oil Market Reports containing detailed price projections for 2026 [4], although specific figures were not available in the summaries.
WTI price influences retail gasoline via crack spreads and cost components. Understanding how a WTI price floor translates to Texas regular unleaded retail prices requires considering historical PADD 3 (Gulf Coast region, including Texas) crack spreads and the overall composition of gasoline prices. Crude oil is historically the most significant component of gasoline's retail price, typically accounting for 50% to 60% [2]. A crack spread represents the profit margin refiners earn by converting crude oil into refined products like gasoline [3]. The remaining portion of the retail price covers refining costs, distribution and marketing, and federal/state taxes [2].
A lower WTI crude price would directly reduce Texas gasoline prices. If the WTI crude oil price reaches a projected floor, that lower crude price would directly reduce the largest component of retail gasoline prices. While the specific crack spread for 2026, along with other costs such as taxes and distribution, would also influence the final retail price, any significant decrease in WTI, as suggested by the EIA's forecast for lower prices [1], would proportionally lead to lower retail gasoline prices in Texas, assuming other cost components remain relatively stable.
Sources (4)
  1. 1EIA forecasts lower oil prices in 2026 and 2027 due to persistent stock builds - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
  2. 2How Gasoline Prices Are Actually Set: From Crude to Pump - Price of Oilpriceofoil.com
  3. 3An introduction to crack spreads - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
  4. 4Oil Market Report - April 2026 – Analysis - IEAiea.org

7. How Will Refinery Maintenance Impact Gasoline Output in Q3/Q4 2026?

Motiva Port Arthur CDU OverhaulSeptember 2026 [1]
ExxonMobil Beaumont TurnaroundsYear-end 2026 [2]
Capacity Returning Online Q3/Q4 2026Not specified; maintenance causes reduction [1]
Major Texas Gulf Coast refineries plan maintenance reducing capacity in Q3 and Q4 2026. Motiva's Port Arthur refinery is scheduled for a Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) overhaul in September 2026, which typically necessitates a significant reduction or complete halt of crude processing [1]. This event, along with coker work planned for other periods, is a key factor impacting capacity in the latter half of that year [1]. Additionally, the ExxonMobil Beaumont Refinery has planned two turnarounds in 2026, with one explicitly noted for "year-end," involving taking units offline for maintenance [2].
Specific figures for capacity returning online in 2026 are unavailable in the provided research. The details instead point to periods where refining units will be taken offline due to scheduled maintenance, temporarily decreasing rather than increasing gasoline production capacity during the specified timeframe. Turnarounds and overhauls reduce operational capacity as units undergo inspection, maintenance, and upgrades [2]. Thus, these activities would lead to a reduction in available output.
EIA demand projections are unavailable in the provided research. The web research results do not contain any information about the EIA's demand projections for Q3 and Q4 2026. Therefore, a comparison between potential capacity changes and demand projections cannot be made based on the available sources. The scheduled maintenance activities at these major refineries suggest potential reductions in gasoline supply during the latter half of 2026.
Sources (2)
  1. 1Motiva Texas refinery plans coker work this year, CDU overhaul in September 2026, sources saylongbridge.com
  2. 2Exxon plans spring and year-end overhauls at Beaumont, Texas refinery, sources say - BIC Magazinebicmagazine.com

8. What is the Projected Peak for PADD 3 Gasoline Inventories in 2026?

Projected 2026 Peak Inventory68.5 million barrels [1]
Historical Peak Inventory (April 2020)90.3 million barrels [2]
Difference from 2020 Peak21.8 million barrels lower [2]
PADD 3 inventories are projected to peak lower in 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts that finished motor gasoline inventories in the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) will peak at approximately 68.5 million barrels in 2026, most likely during the first quarter [1]. This forecast provides an outlook on future supply levels based on expected production, consumption, and trade dynamics in the region.
Historically, higher inventory levels coincided with low prices. PADD 3 finished motor gasoline inventories have reached higher levels during periods when Texas average gasoline prices dropped below the $2.20 per gallon threshold. A notable instance occurred in April 2020, amidst significant demand reductions, when PADD 3 ending stocks of total gasoline peaked at approximately 90.3 million barrels [2]. During this period, Texas All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices were significantly below $2.20 per gallon, averaging around $1.748 per gallon [3].
The 2026 forecasted peak is significantly lower than past highs. Comparing the 2026 forecasted peak of 68.5 million barrels to these historical instances reveals a projected lower inventory level. The forecasted 2026 peak is approximately 21.8 million barrels lower than the 90.3 million barrels recorded in April 2020 when Texas gasoline prices were well below $2.20 per gallon [2]. This suggests that current projections do not anticipate a build-up of gasoline stocks to the same degree seen during past periods associated with very low Texas retail gasoline prices.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
  2. 2Gulf Coast (PADD 3) Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)eia.gov
  3. 3Texas All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)eia.gov

9. What are Dos Bocas Refinery's Latest Production Targets and Challenges?

Design Crude Capacity340,000 barrels per day (bpd) [1]
Target Crude Processing (Q3/Q4 2026)340,000 bpd [1]
Crude Processing (February 2026)90,000 bpd [2]
Mexico's Dos Bocas refinery targets significant fuel production by late 2026. This facility, also known as Olmeca, is designed to process 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, with Pemex aiming for it to achieve this full capacity and produce 280,000 bpd of combined gasoline and diesel by the end of 2026 [1]. However, the refinery has faced operational challenges, with its crude processing averaging 170,000 bpd in early 2026, yielding 102,000 bpd of fuel. This performance declined further in February 2026, when crude processing dropped to 90,000 bpd, producing only 47,000 bpd of combined gasoline and diesel [1]. Additionally, reported fires in March and April 2026 could impede its progress toward full capacity [3].
Full Dos Bocas output could reshape the U.S. fuel export market. Should the Dos Bocas refinery achieve its target of 280,000 bpd of gasoline and diesel by late 2026, it possesses the potential to significantly displace U.S. fuel exports to Mexico [1]. Specifically, the refinery's projected output could displace 185,000 bpd of U.S. gasoline exports and 95,000 bpd of U.S. diesel exports to Mexico [1]. This anticipated reduction in demand for U.S. exports is expected to lead to a localized oversupply of gasoline and diesel in the Texas Gulf Coast, potentially affecting prices in that region [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Mexico’s Dos Bocas Refinery Starts Biting Into U.S. Fuel Exportsfinance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Pemex Crude Processing Rises in February on Tula Gains, While Dos Bocas Loses Momentum - OPIS, A Dow Jones Companyopis.com
  3. 3Pemex Records Highest Crude Processing Rate in More than a Decadeindustrialinfo.com
  4. 42026 Preview: Dangote, Dos Bocas Impacts Eyed in Gulf Coast Gasoline Market - OPIS, A Dow Jones Companyopis.com

10. Will Texas Gasoline Prices Decline in September 2026?

Projected 2026 Annual Average Gas PriceBelow $3 (GasBuddy) [1]
Key Factor for Sep 2026 DeclineShift to less expensive winter-grade gasoline [2]
Contributing Factor for Sep 2026 DeclineSeasonal decrease in demand after Labor Day [3]
Texas gasoline prices are expected to decline during September 2026's blend transition. This anticipated drop is primarily due to the mandated shift from more expensive summer-grade gasoline to cheaper winter-grade blends, a change driven by environmental regulations [3]. Additionally, a natural decrease in travel demand following the Labor Day holiday and the conclusion of the peak summer driving season will contribute to this seasonal easing of prices [3].
Broader forecasts for 2026 suggest an overall lower price environment. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a general decline in average U.S. gas prices for the year [4]. More specifically, GasBuddy predicts that the yearly average gas prices will fall below $3 in 2026, which would be the lowest average since 2020 [1]. This overall lower price outlook for the year, combined with typical seasonal factors, indicates that the post-Labor Day period in September 2026 is a strong candidate for the yearly low in Texas gas prices [3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1GasBuddy: Yearly Average Gas Prices to Fall Below $3 in 2026 — Lowest Since 2020gasbuddy.com
  2. 2US gasoline blends explained as EPA expands E15 salesmrt.com
  3. 3AAA Texas: Gas Prices Fall as Autumn Approaches | AAA Texastx-aaa.iprsoftware.com
  4. 4Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov