Cocoa price on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

For the 2025/2026 crop year, productive cocoa acreage in Ivory Coast and Ghana is projected to decrease. The combined net decrease is estimated at approximately 150,000 hectares, primarily driven by extensive tree removal programs targeting Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV) infected farms and the natural attrition of aging trees, despite ongoing replanting initiatives ^[1]. The Cacao Swollen Shoot Virus is a significant threat, causing considerable yield loss and eventual tree death, necessitating the removal of affected plants to prevent further spread ^[3].

Ivory Coast expects a net reduction in productive cocoa acreage. As the world's largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast is forecast to see a net reduction of approximately 100,000 hectares. This includes an estimated loss of 150,000 hectares due to CSSV eradication efforts, which encourage farmers to cut down infected trees ^[2]. An additional 50,000 hectares are expected to become unproductive due to the natural senescence of older cocoa trees ^[2]. These losses are partially mitigated by the anticipated integration of about 100,000 hectares of new, higher-yielding, and often disease-resistant plantings becoming productive during the 2025/2026 season ^[2].

Ghana also projects a significant net decrease in productive cocoa land. Ghana is projected to face a net decrease of approximately 50,000 hectares. This figure accounts for the removal of an estimated 80,000 hectares of existing productive land due to CSSV eradication programs, which involve cutting down infected trees and subsequent replanting efforts ^[1]. Furthermore, approximately 30,000 hectares are expected to be removed or decline significantly in productivity due to aging trees and unsustainable farming practices ^[1]. Counteracting these losses, replanting schemes, including government-subsidized seedling distribution, are projected to contribute roughly 60,000 hectares of new productive land by the 2025/2026 crop year ^[1].

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will not cause widespread cocoa supply chain disruption by Q1 2026. This is primarily because the official compliance deadline for large operators is December 30, 2026, and for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) it is June 30, 2026 ^[1]. Although the regulation came into force in June 2023, the later deadlines mean that companies will largely be in a preparatory phase during Q1 2026, rather than facing immediate penalties for non-compliance.

Major exporters are proactively implementing comprehensive traceability and sustainability initiatives. For example, Barry Callebaut aims for 100% traceability to farm level for all directly sourced cocoa by 2025, having already achieved this for over 80% of its direct purchases ^[2]. The company utilizes polygonal mapping technology within its Cocoa Horizons program to ensure a transparent and deforestation-free supply chain, aligning with the regulation's requirements ^[2].

Challenges remain for smallholders, influencing market dynamics and operational costs. Significant issues persist within the broader cocoa supply chain, especially for smallholder farmers in key producing nations like Ghana. These include a lack of precise farm-level location data, fragmented supply chains, and limited access to technology, with only an estimated 20-30% of cocoa farms in Ghana currently traceable to a precise geolocation ^[3]. While direct enforcement disruption is delayed, the market is already experiencing influences, such as concerns about the law contributing to slumps in European cocoa prices by March 2024 ^[4]. Therefore, by Q1 2026, the impact will likely manifest as operational adjustments, increased costs for traceability infrastructure, and shifts in sourcing strategies, rather than an immediate blockage of goods due to non-compliance.

Ivory Coast's cocoa arrivals lagged expectations and prior year figures for its 2025/2026 main crop. As of March 31, 2026, cumulative main crop cocoa port arrivals reached 1.68 million metric tons, a 1.2% decrease compared to the 1.70 million metric tons recorded during the same period in the previous season ^[1]. This figure fell short of the Q4 2025 analyst consensus, which had projected arrivals of approximately 1.75 million metric tons ^[1]. The declining trend in arrivals was consistent throughout March ^[3].

Ghana also reported a significant shortfall in its main crop arrivals, totaling 620,000 metric tons by March 31, 2026 ^[2]. This marks a 5.0% reduction from the 650,000 metric tons delivered by the same date in the prior year ^[2]. These arrivals were below the Q4 2025 analyst expectations, which had estimated Ghana's figures for this period to be between 640,000 and 660,000 metric tons ^[2].

Ecuador's projected cocoa growth could significantly offset West African supply deficit. Emerging producer Ecuador anticipates substantial increases in cocoa output and exports for the 2025/2026 period. The nation is expected to produce approximately 500,000 metric tons in 2025, positioning it as the world's second-largest cocoa producer ^[2]. Furthermore, its cocoa exports are projected to exceed 623,000 metric tons in 2026 ^[3]. This substantial growth from Ecuador alone has the potential to offset a considerable portion, if not the entirety, of the forecasted 5-10% supply deficit from West Africa in the 2025/2026 season ^[1].

Brazil's cocoa sector decline means it won't help global supply. In contrast to Ecuador, Brazil's contributions are not expected to mitigate a potential global supply deficit. Reports from the National Association of Cocoa Processors (AIPC) indicate that Brazil's cocoa grinding decreased by 15% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, processing only 46,000 tons of cocoa beans ^[4]. This reduction was primarily attributed to lower domestic and international demand ^[4]. There are no current forecasts for increased crop output from Brazil that would help alleviate a global supply shortage in 2025/2026. Therefore, any potential offset to the West African deficit will rely predominantly on Ecuador's forecasted production growth.

Weak grind data indicates declining global cocoa demand and elasticity. Overall, major processing regions reported a significant softening of demand for cocoa, demonstrating elasticity as consumers reduce chocolate consumption or manufacturers adjust production due to historically high cocoa bean costs. North American cocoa grindings notably declined by 3.8% in Q1 2026, signaling a weak demand recovery ^[1]. Similarly, European cocoa processing weakened further during Q1 2026, which contributed to a decline in cocoa prices ^[4].

Regional cocoa demand varies despite overall weakness in major markets. While many regions experienced a downturn, Asian cocoa grindings bucked the trend, rising 5.2% year-over-year to 223,503 tonnes in Q1 2026 ^[2]. However, in Brazil, grinding activity stalled despite a significant 61% surge in cocoa bean receipts in Q1 2026, indicating weak demand ^[3]. The cumulative effect of weakened processing in key regions like Europe and North America, alongside global demand faltering, has been a significant factor in recent cocoa price declines, with market reports citing weak grind data as deepening market corrections ^[5].