Topic tracker · Commodities
Gold 15-minute
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (0 live, 2 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Gold 15-minute markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated November 2, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold 15 min · $3,958.17 target | November 2, 2026 | 52.0% vs 44.0% | Report → |
| Gold 15 min · $4,136.73 target | October 21, 2026 | 10.7% vs 6.9% | Report → |
