Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect WTI oil prices to be $78 or above on April 20, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market shows a consistent upward trend, with the probability of a YES resolution rising from a starting point of 85.0% to a current high of 97.0%. The price has traded within a range of 62.0% to 97.0% over the life of the contract. The most significant price action was a sharp 10.0 percentage point spike on April 17th, which drove the price from 85.0% to 95.0%. This breakout established a new, higher trading range in the final days before the market's resolution date.
The move on April 17th was accompanied by a significant surge in trading volume, with 1,060 contracts traded, suggesting strong conviction behind the upward repricing. However, no specific news or external catalyst was provided to explain this sudden shift in market sentiment. The subsequent price increases to 95.0% and 97.0% occurred on very light volume, indicating that once the breakout occurred, there was little selling pressure to challenge the higher valuation. The 85.0% level, which was the starting price, can be viewed as a key support level that held before the final ascent.
Overall, the price action reflects an extremely bullish market sentiment. The current 97.0% probability implies a very strong consensus among traders that the price of WTI oil will be above the $77.99 threshold on the resolution date. The powerful, high-volume breakout from 85.0% suggests that any remaining uncertainty was decisively resolved in favor of a YES outcome, with the market now pricing this as a near-certainty.
  • US Strategic Petroleum Reserve targets oil purchases below $79 per barrel.
  • Saudi Arabia's 2025 fiscal breakeven price approaches $100 per barrel.
  • OPEC+ is strongly incentivized to maintain elevated oil prices.
  • Permian Basin producers plan significant capital expenditure and production growth.
  • China forecasts show minimal gasoline growth but strong jet fuel recovery.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: $80 or above

📈 April 18, 2026: 22.0pp spike

Price increased from 74.0% to 96.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: $82 or above

📈 April 17, 2026: 18.0pp spike

Price increased from 55.0% to 73.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil on April 20, 2026, is above $92.99; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome is verified from ICE, and trading closes on April 20, 2026, at 2:30 PM EDT, with payouts projected for 3:30 PM EDT on the same day.

Market Discussion

Traders are actively discussing the WTI oil price for April 20, 2026, with sentiment largely influenced by geopolitical events. Many are betting on higher prices, citing recent reports of Iranian ship incidents and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which some believe make current prices "artificially low" and justify bets above $90 or $94. In contrast, one trader predicts suppressed oil prices due to political factors, while overall market percentages show a moderate leaning towards prices around $92, with diminishing confidence for thresholds above $93-$94.

5. What Are Saudi Arabia and Russia's 2025 Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices?

Saudi Arabia 2025 Fiscal Breakeven Oil Price$99.60 per barrel (3, 9) [1]
Russia 2025 Budgeted Urals Oil Price Assumption$60-$70.10 per barrel (4, 5, 7) [1]
Implied OPEC+ Production Level for TargetsNot specified in research [1]
Saudi Arabia's 2025 budget requires a higher oil price. The Kingdom's approved 2025 national budget necessitates a fiscal breakeven oil price of $99.60 per barrel to balance its expenditures [2]. This marks an increase from Saudi Arabia's estimated fiscal breakeven oil price of $96.20 per barrel in 2024 [3].
Russia's 2025 budget anticipates a deficit despite oil price assumptions. For Russia, the 2025 national budget is based on several Urals crude oil price assumptions, including $65 per barrel for 2025-2027 [4], an average of $70.10 per barrel in 2025 [5], and a separate report citing $60 per barrel [6]. Despite these budgeted figures, Russia's finance ministry expects a budget deficit of 1.4% of GDP in 2025 [4]. This projection indicates that Russia's actual fiscal breakeven oil price would need to be higher than these assumed prices to achieve a balanced budget, though a precise figure for 2025 is not explicitly stated in the provided sources.
Implied OPEC+ production levels are not specified in research. The research does not provide information regarding the specific implied OPEC+ production levels required to achieve these fiscal breakeven oil price targets for either Saudi Arabia or Russia. Fiscal breakeven prices are generally calculated based on a nation's projected spending and assumed production, rather than dictating a precise output target for the entire OPEC+ alliance.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Breakeven Fiscal Oil Price for Saudi Arabia (SAUPZPIOILBEGUSD) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  2. 2https://argaamplus.s3.amazonaws.com/e5356774-2477-4d2d-8f33-e9fb165446b6.pdfargaamplus.s3.amazonaws.com
  3. 3Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven oil price is rising fastcnbc.com
  4. 4Russia hikes 2025 deficit forecast threefold due to low oil price risks | Reutersreuters.com
  5. 5Russian Economic Officials Brace for Lowest Oil Prices Since Pandemic - The Moscow Timesthemoscowtimes.com
  6. 6Falling oil prices reduce Russia’s budget revenues – Bank of Finland Bulletinbofbulletin.fi

6. What Are Permian Producers' 2025 Capital and Production Plans?

Aggregate 2025 Capital Expenditure$47.2 billion to $50.4 billion [1]
ExxonMobil 2025 Permian Production~1.2 MMBOED [1]
Chevron 2025 Permian Production860,000-900,000 MBOED [2]
Permian Basin's largest producers plan substantial capital expenditures for 2025. Based on their Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 earnings calls, the five largest Permian Basin producers project aggregate capital expenditures ranging from approximately $47.2 billion to $50.4 billion for 2025. This total encompasses Permian-specific capital expenditure guidance of around $6.5 billion for Chevron [3] and approximately $3.7 billion for Occidental [4]. It also incorporates company-wide capital expenditure plans from significant Permian operators, including ExxonMobil's $23 billion to $26 billion [1], ConocoPhillips' $11.8 billion [5], and Diamondback Energy's $2.20 billion to $2.40 billion [6].
Permian producers project notable production growth throughout 2025. These major Permian operators also forecast continued production growth. ExxonMobil anticipates its Permian production will increase by approximately 10% over 2024, reaching about 1.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED) [1]. Chevron projects its 2025 Permian production to be between 860,000 and 900,000 MBOED, signifying a 2.5% to 7.3% rise from its 2024 average of 839 MBOED [2]. Occidental expects its Permian output to grow 8% to 10% from 2024 levels, achieving 630,000 to 650,000 MBOED [4]. ConocoPhillips forecasts its Permian production to average 660,000 to 680,000 BOE per day in 2025, an increase from its Q4 2024 exit rate of roughly 650,000 BOE per day [7]. Diamondback Energy foresees its full-year 2025 average daily production ranging from 580,000 to 600,000 MBOE/d, indicating substantial growth of 25.2% to 29.5% from its 2024 average, partially due to recent acquisitions [6].
Sources (7)
  1. 1https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_17c51753a66af8fad990309030d2cc98/exxonmobil/db/2288/22589/presentation/4Q25+Earnings+Slides.pdfd1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net
  2. 2https://chevroncorp.gcs-web.com/static-files/e08e9838-5f69-4854-8822-edf77113cd2fchevroncorp.gcs-web.com
  3. 3Chevron Announces 2025 Capex Budget & 4Q24 Interim Updates — Chevronchevron.com
  4. 4https://www.oxy.com/siteassets/documents/investors/quarterly-earnings/oxy4q25transcript.pdfoxy.com
  5. 5https://static.conocophillips.com/files/resources/4q24-earnings-release.pdfstatic.conocophillips.com
  6. 6Documentsec.gov
  7. 7https://static.conocophillips.com/files/resources/cop_n-transcript-2025-02-06t17_00-1.pdfstatic.conocophillips.com

7. How Do IEA and EIA Forecast China's 2025 Fuel Demand?

China 2025 Gasoline Demand (IEA)Marginal growth or near stagnation [1]
China 2025 Gasoline Demand (EIA)Modest growth, tempered but not fully offset by EV sales [2]
China 2025 Jet Fuel OutlookRobust growth and significant recovery expected by both IEA and EIA [1]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts minimal Chinese gasoline growth but strong jet fuel recovery. The IEA's "Oil 2025" report projects marginal growth or near stagnation for China's gasoline consumption in 2025. This trend is explicitly attributed to the rapid penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) and improved fuel efficiency standards across China [1]. In contrast, the IEA anticipates robust growth in China's jet fuel consumption for 2025. This growth is expected to approach, and potentially even surpass, 2019 pre-pandemic levels as both domestic and international air travel continue to normalize [1].
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts modest gasoline growth, agreeing on robust jet fuel recovery. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for 2025 offers a somewhat different perspective on China's gasoline demand. While acknowledging the impact of increasing EV sales, the EIA projects modest positive growth in China's motor gasoline consumption for 2025, suggesting EV adoption will slow gasoline growth but not lead to near-stagnation or potential contraction [2]. For jet fuel, the EIA generally aligns with the IEA, projecting a strong recovery in China's jet fuel consumption in 2025, driven by the continued rebound in both domestic and international air travel [2]. The primary divergence between the two agencies' 2025 forecasts for China therefore lies in the magnitude and direction of gasoline consumption recovery, with the IEA anticipating a more profound dampening effect from EVs than the EIA [1].
Sources (2)
  1. 1https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/018c3361-bc01-4482-a386-a5b2747ae82a/Oil2025.pdfiea.blob.core.windows.net
  2. 2https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/may25.pdfeia.gov

8. What Is the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Oil Purchase Schedule?

Official Purchase Target$79 per barrel or less [1]
2025 Monthly SolicitationsUp to 3 million barrels per month through at least May 2025 [2]
Q1 2026 Contracted Volume2.4 million barrels [3]
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) officially targets purchasing crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) when prices are $79 per barrel or less [1]. This strategy aims to secure favorable deals for American taxpayers while rebuilding the emergency crude oil stockpile. The DOE has committed to conducting ongoing monthly solicitations, with plans to purchase up to 3 million barrels per month for delivery several months in advance, a process intended to continue through at least May 2025 [2].
Specific contracts detail SPR refilling through early 2026. Throughout 2025, the SPR refilling schedule includes several awarded purchase contracts for crude oil deliveries. These contracts encompass 3.25 million barrels for delivery from December 2024 to March 2025. Following this, 1.2 million barrels are scheduled for each subsequent two-month period: April to May 2025, June to July 2025, August to September 2025, October to November 2025, and December 2025 to January 2026 [3]. For the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, March), a total of 2.4 million barrels are currently under contract for delivery to the SPR [3]. This total includes volumes for the December 2025 to January 2026 period, February to March 2026, and an additional 1.2 million barrels specifically for March 2026 [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Energy Department Issues Solicitation to Purchase Crude Oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve | Department of Energyenergy.gov
  2. 2U.S. Department of Energy Announces Monthly Solicitations to Purchase Oil for Strategic Petroleum Reserve Replenishment | Department of Energyenergy.gov
  3. 3The Strategic Petroleum Reservespr.doe.gov

9. What Is the Current WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Spread?

Current Front-Month WTI Price$79.80 per barrel (July 2024 contract) [1]
April 2026 WTI Futures Price$70.62 per barrel (CLJ26 contract) [2], [3]
Current Price Spread (Backwardation)-$9.18 per barrel [4], [5]
WTI futures show backwardation with the front-month contract priced higher. As of May 20, 2024, the July 2024 (CLN24) WTI crude oil futures contract was trading at approximately $79.80 per barrel [1]. In contrast, the April 2026 (CLJ26) WTI futures contract was priced around $70.62 per barrel [2], [3]. The price spread between these two contracts is -$9.18 per barrel, calculated by subtracting the front-month price from the deferred contract price ($70.62 - $79.80). This negative spread signifies that the market is currently in backwardation, a condition where the front-month contract price surpasses that of a deferred contract [4], [5].
Backwardation suggests tight supply, but historical comparison data is unavailable. This market condition typically indicates perceptions of tight crude oil supply or robust immediate demand [4], [5], [6]. However, the research did not provide specific quantified historical average spread data for the 24 months leading up to the April 2026 contract's expiration [4], [5], [6], [7], [8]. Consequently, a direct numerical comparison of the current -$9.18 backwardation to a historical average is not possible.
Sources (8)
  1. 1Crude Oil WTI Prices and Crude Oil WTI Futures Prices - Barchart.combarchart.com
  2. 2Crude Oil (CLJ26) Future Contract Prices & News - Google Financegoogle.com
  3. 3Crude Oil WTI Apr '26 Futures Price - Barchart.combarchart.com
  4. 4Implications of WTI Oil Futures In Backwardation Amid the Supply Crunch - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  5. 5Crude Oil Market: Backwardated Curve and Front-End Correctioncommodity-board.com
  6. 6Vos paramètres de confidentialitéfinance.yahoo.com
  7. 7Crude Oil WTI Jun '24 Futures Spreads - Barchart.combarchart.com
  8. 8Crude Oil WTI Futures Standard Spread Comparison - Barchart.combarchart.com

11. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXWTI-26APR17-T73.99: YES (Apr 17, 2026)
  • KXWTI-26APR17-T74.99: YES (Apr 17, 2026)
  • KXWTI-26APR17-T75.99: YES (Apr 17, 2026)
  • KXWTI-26APR17-T76.99: YES (Apr 17, 2026)
  • KXWTI-26APR17-T77.99: YES (Apr 17, 2026)