BTC price range on Nov 13, 2026 at 5pm EST?

Democrats' midterm victory signals tighter crypto regulation focusing on SEC oversight. After the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections, Democrats gained control of both the House and Senate, establishing a new political environment that anticipates expanded SEC authority and reduced CFTC oversight in crypto regulation ^{[1][4][5][6][3]}. The CLARITY Act, which aimed to expand CFTC authority over crypto spot markets, failed a Senate procedural vote on September 15, 2026, and is considered effectively finished ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6]}. As a result, House Democrats are now developing a new, broader crypto market structure bill, based on a 2025 investor-rights amendment, which would grant the SEC a larger supervisory role and the CFTC a smaller one, thereby reversing the CLARITY Act's CFTC-led approach ^[3][4]. Proposed measures within this bill include requirements for monthly reserve attestations, tougher custody rules, SIPC-like customer-asset coverage, and ethics restrictions ^[3][4]. Additionally, the SEC proposed a new Regulation Crypto Assets framework in August 2026, offering exemptions for certain crypto projects to raise up to $75 million annually without requiring full securities registration ^[2][13][6].

Bitcoin's price showed a muted reaction to the election outcomes. Despite expectations of tighter regulatory actions, experts suggest this does not directly cause a fall in crypto prices ^{[1][13][5][6]}. Bitcoin's immediate post-election reaction was indeed muted; its price fell from $78,000 on election evening, dipped below $75,700 overnight, and then quickly rebounded above $78,000, maintaining its 100-day simple moving average support ^[1][6][7][8]. By November 6, 2026, BTC was trading near $75,700 ^[1][6][7][8]. Key macroeconomic factors influencing Bitcoin's price by November 13 include the $6.3 billion Binance hack on October 29, the Federal Reserve's expected December interest rate hike, tightening credit conditions, and oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions ^[13][6]. As of November 6, 2026, Kalshi odds indicated the highest probability for BTC on November 13, 2026, at 5 p.m. EST, to be in the $75,500–$77,999 range ^{[9][10][11][12]}.

Bitcoin options indicate anticipated near-term price volatility. In late October 2026, Bitcoin options' implied volatility, as measured by the DVOL index, reached 38.3% annualized, significantly surpassing the 14-day realized volatility of 20.2% and establishing an 18-point volatility risk premium ^[1]. This suggests that traders foresee a strong directional price movement within the subsequent two to three weeks ^[1]. The 38.3% DVOL implies a 30-day expected trading range of approximately $72,500 to $90,400, based on an $81,481 reference price, within which Bitcoin is expected to trade with roughly two-thirds probability by mid-November ^[1]. However, the 30-day implied volatility for BTC slightly decreased to 37.8% by November 4, 2026, and its current levels reside in the lower half of its one-year range ^[6].

Recent institutional outflows have pressured Bitcoin's price downward. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced substantial institutional outflows, totaling $430.2 million in net outflows on November 5, 2026, with Fidelity, BlackRock, and Grayscale identified as significant contributors ^[2][3][4]. Cumulative November outflows across four trading sessions reached $869.8 million, while net withdrawals over seven sessions amounted to approximately $1.36 billion ^[2][3][4]. These outflows have instigated a sell-off, causing Bitcoin to trade at approximately $75,700 on November 6, 2026, a decrease from the $81,481 level observed in late October ^[5][1].

Prediction markets reflect mixed to bearish short-term sentiment. Polymarket indicated a slight bearish bias for November 7, pricing the 'Down' outcome at 52% ^[7][8]. Additionally, Public.com suggests a 64% probability of Bitcoin's price falling below $72,500 at some point during November ^[9]. However, other prediction markets still anticipate Bitcoin remaining well above $65,000 by mid-November ^[10].

Technical analysis forecasts predict Bitcoin prices in the mid-$70,000s for Q4 2026. Leading technical analysis projections for mid-November 2026 generally place Bitcoin prices in the $75,000-$78,000 range, aligning with current prediction market probabilities for the same period ^[1][2][3][4]. As of November 6-7, 2026, Bitcoin is trading between $75,500 and $75,800, with the 200-day EMA at $76,475 acting as a significant resistance level ^[5][6][7][8]. In contrast, on-chain valuation models offer a different perspective; the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model would theoretically predict substantially higher, six-figure prices based solely on supply scarcity ^[1][2][3][4]. The NVT Signal, another on-chain model, would require real-time data to assess if Bitcoin is currently overvalued or undervalued relative to its network usage ^[1][2][3][4].

Specific analyses support varied, yet generally bullish, short-term projections. StoneX's Q4 2026 Bitcoin Outlook, published September 24, 2026, highlighted a large bullish divergence with the 14-week RSI, suggesting waning selling pressure and a potential long-term bottom ^[10][11]. This outlook indicated a near-term bullish bias above $80,000, potentially extending toward $98,000-$100,000 ^[10][11]. Separately, Altcoin Buzz's Q4 2026 technical analysis, conducted when Bitcoin traded at $77,932, showed 8-9 out of 10 indicators pointing bullish, achieving an average score of 7.5/10, with price targets at $82,045, $82,450, and $85,000 ^[9]. Changelly's specific forecast for November 13, 2026, was $75,389.80, projecting a November 2026 range of $74,460.64 to $80,844.02, with an average price of $77,652.33 ^[4]. Prediction markets for November 13, 2026, also showed the highest probability outcomes concentrated within the $73,500-$78,500 range ^[12][13][14].

On-chain models, especially Stock-to-Flow, have faced significant performance challenges. The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, in particular, has encountered considerable criticism and poor performance, especially since the 2024 halving ^[1][2][3]. The S2F model's primary limitation stems from its sole reliance on the supply schedule, entirely disregarding demand dynamics ^[1][2][3]. For example, in November 2021, S2F predicted prices exceeding $100,000 when Bitcoin was trading around $69,000 ^[1][2][3]. Furthermore, it continued to forecast six-figure prices throughout 2022, even as Bitcoin's value declined to $15,000-$20,000, which significantly undermined its predictive credibility ^[1][2][3]. Consequently, many investors now view S2F more as a historical reference than a reliable tool for price prediction ^[1][2][3]. The NVT Signal (NVTS), which assesses valuation using a 90-day moving average of daily transaction volume, indicates potential overvaluation when NVT is above 90-100 and undervaluation when below 50 ^[1][2][15]. Notably, the NVT Signal spiked above 150 in early 2018 just prior to a major Bitcoin price collapse ^[1][2][15].

Coinglass offers extensive real-time data for market activities in Q3-Q4 2026. This publicly available dataset provider tracks significant market movements, including futures liquidations and large wallet activities. The platform delivers real-time liquidation data, encompassing heatmaps, total liquidations categorized by various time periods (1h, 4h, 12h, 24h), and detailed exchange-level breakdowns that include long/short splits ^[1]. Coinglass also maintains a record of the top 10 liquidation events, complete with historical context. Beyond liquidations, Coinglass tracks Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow data, funding rates, open interest, and volume data for Bitcoin and other assets, alongside 24-hour liquidation metrics for major exchanges ^[1][5].

Glassnode specializes in comprehensive on-chain analysis with over 1,700 metrics for Q3-Q4 2026. Providing deep insights into market dynamics, its key offerings include detailed wallet cohort accumulation trends, such as a 30-day Accumulation Trend Score across six distinct wallet-size cohorts ^[2][3][4]. Glassnode also monitors exchange reserves, presenting 30-day averages of Bitcoin held on 11 exchanges, each holding a minimum of 1,000 BTC ^[2][4]. For futures liquidations, Glassnode features a liquidation heatmap that effectively models forced closure prices for leveraged futures positions, crucial for understanding potential market shifts. Glassnode's research reports specifically leverage these tools to track large wallet movements, ETF flows, and conduct detailed liquidation heatmap analysis ^[2][3].

Bitcoin's post-2024 halving performance shows significantly diminished returns compared to prior cycles. In the 30 months following the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin has delivered substantially lower gains than seen in 2016 and 2020. The cumulative return in the first 180 days after the 2024 halving was merely 3.7%, a sharp contrast to 53.5% after the 2016 halving and 73.0% after the 2020 halving ^[1]. To date, Bitcoin has appreciated only 1.9x following the 2024 halving, significantly less than the approximately 29.3x after 2016 and 7.8x after 2020 ^[2].

The 2024 cycle peak shows reduced percentage gains despite similar timing. Bitcoin, starting at approximately $64,968 in the 2024 cycle, reached an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025, approximately 18 months post-halving ^[2][4][3][5]. While this peak timing aligns with historical patterns of 525-550 days post-halving, the percentage gain from the halving price to this peak was only about 60% in 2024, a notable difference from 3,000% in 2016 and 690% in 2020 ^[3]. As of November 6, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $75,885-$76,037, representing a 38.1% drop from its peak ^[6][7][8][5].

ETF flows drive unique dynamics in the 2024 halving cycle. This period is characterized as Bitcoin's 'first ETF-era halving,' with institutional ETF flows, rather than solely scarcity narratives, primarily influencing its performance and leading to a divergence from previous historical patterns ^[9][1]. The 2024 cycle has also exhibited narrower peak-to-trough drawdowns of 53%, compared to approximately 83-84% in prior cycles ^[2]. Prediction markets for November 13, 2026, suggest a generally bearish outlook, with the highest probability outcomes falling within the $75,500 to $76,999.99 range ^[10][11][12].

The US midterm elections on November 3, 2026, are a key catalyst for Bitcoin. A Bloomberg survey of 301 investors indicated 29% expected Bitcoin above $100,000 by year-end under Republican control, while only 8% held this expectation if Democrats win, with 71% expecting Bitcoin to finish 2026 lower under Democratic control ^[1]. The CLARITY Act, a market structure bill, is the main crypto question and expires if not passed before January 3, 2027 ^[1][2]. In the week of November 3-7, 2026, three central banks are expected to raise rates: the Reserve Bank of Australia to 4.85% from 4.60% on November 3, Sweden's Riksbank by a quarter-point hike to 2.00% on November 4, and the Bank of England to 4.0% from 3.75% on November 5 ^[1]. Higher rates typically pull money away from non-yielding assets like Bitcoin ^[1]. The October jobs report, due November 6, 2026, serves as a key input for the Fed's December 9 decision, with CME FedWatch showing a 73.8% chance of a Fed hike on December 9 ^[1][2]. Bitcoin has reacted quickly to payroll surprises, falling 1.8% from its pre-release level within minutes when August payrolls nearly tripled forecasts ^[1]. Additionally, MSCI will announce on November 11, 2026, whether Strategy (MSTR) and other bitcoin treasury firms are removed from its indexes, effective November 30 ^[2].

Recent market events include a $6.3 billion hack at Binance, which pushed Bitcoin to a six-week low on November 1, 2026, with Bitcoin entering the week of November 3 near $77,700 ^[1][2]. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $8.6 billion in outflows during January 2026 alone ^[3]. Bullish catalysts include potential CLARITY Act passage, spot altcoin ETF approvals for SOL, XRP, and LTC, tightening supply dynamics with only 1.2 million BTC remaining to be mined, and projected ISM Manufacturing PMI expansion ^[3]. The bullish scenario for Q3 2026 projects BTC at $100,000-$150,000 by September ^[3]. Conversely, bearish catalysts include Fed rate hikes, continued ETF outflows, stagflation risk from the Iran war and oil, and the four-year cycle suggesting 2026 is the first year of a multi-year correction after an October 2025 peak at $126,000 ^[1][3]. Prior post-peak drawdowns ranged from 77% to 85%, implying a floor between $16,000 and $29,000 ^[3]. Analyst Sean Farrell projects a base case retracement to $60,000-$65,000 in H1 2026 ^[3]. CoinGecko's prediction data shows overall market sentiment is bearish, with an 82.5% chance of reaching $77,500 by November 2026 and an 88.0% probability that $75,000 support holds ^[4][5]. Key technical support levels are $76,000-$77,000, $74,000-$75,000, and $72,000-$72,500, with resistance at $82,500 and $83,000-$86,000 ^[6][7].