Wheat price on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect wheat prices to be above 534.99¢ on April 30, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
Based on the chart data, this prediction market displays a period of exceptionally low volatility and high consensus. The price has remained in a very narrow one-percentage-point band, trading between 98.0% and 99.0% YES. The overall trend is sideways, reflecting a stable and unwavering market sentiment that the proposition is highly likely to resolve as YES. This suggests traders have a very strong conviction that the final wheat price on the resolution date will meet the market's criteria.
The market's price action has been defined by periods of inactivity punctuated by a single significant event. A support level was clearly established at 98.0%, where the price held firm from its inception. The recent move to the current price of 99.0% appears to be driven by a specific trading event rather than a reaction to any external news, as no context was provided. Sample data shows a volume surge of 100 contracts on April 28th, which coincided with the price increase. This suggests that a single block of trading activity was sufficient to push the price to the top of its range, a common occurrence in markets with lower overall liquidity. The total volume of 143 contracts is modest, indicating that while conviction is high, market participation has been limited.
- USDA forecasts a $6.00 per bushel U.S. wheat price for 2025/2026.
- Severe drought conditions persist across the Southern Plains.
- China exhibits robust import demand for wheat.
- These factors collectively exert upward pressure on wheat prices.
- Recent market activity indicates a significant upward movement.
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 18, 2026: 23.0pp spike
Price increased from 74.0% to 97.0%
Outcome: above 549.99¢
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the 1-minute candlestick close price for wheat on April 30, 2026, at 5 PM EDT is above 649.99 USd/Bu; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes and settles at 5 PM EDT on April 30, 2026, with the outcome verified by Trading Economics - Wheat and the settlement value rounded to two decimal places. Trading is prohibited for those employed by Source Agencies or possessing material, non-public information.
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What is the USDA's forecasted U.S. wheat price for 2025/2026?
| Forecasted Wheat Price | $6.00 per bushel [1] |
|---|---|
| Report Release Date | February 2025 [1] |
| Marketing Year | 2025/2026 [1] |
The USDA's Agricultural Projections report, released in February 2025, forecasts the U.S. season-average farm price for wheat for the 2025/2026 marketing year to be $6.00 per bushel [1]. This projection is part of the "USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034" report, which provides a comprehensive long-term outlook for the U.S. and global agricultural sectors over a 10-year horizon [1].
The forecast is detailed in specific report sections. The specific forecast of $6.00 per bushel for the 2025/2026 marketing year is detailed within the report's Table 11, titled "U.S. wheat: Supply and disappearance, 2023/24-2034/35" [1, p. 28]. This figure was consistently presented in related documents, such as the 2025 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum's "Grains and Oilseeds Outlook" [3, p. 10]. These annual baseline projections incorporate expert judgment and reflect the anticipated relationships between supply, demand, and prices in the agricultural markets [2].
6. What is Russia-Ukraine's Combined 2025 Wheat Export Volume?
| Combined Russia/Ukraine Wheat Exports | 2025 calendar year volume (Not found in provided sources) [1] |
|---|---|
| IGC Report Focus | Global grain markets, specific marketing years like 2025/26 and 2026/27 [2] |
| Specific Report Checked | IGC Q1 2026 Grain Market Report (Did not contain requested data) [1] |
The requested data point was not found in the provided research. The specific data point sought, which is the combined wheat export volume from Russia and Ukraine for the 2025 calendar year as reported by the International Grains Council (IGC) in its Q1 2026 Grain Market Report, could not be located within the supplied research materials [1]. The available sources did not directly offer this exact data point.
Available sources discuss other IGC reports and marketing years. These included discussions of IGC's June report on global grain and oilseed markets, forecasts for global wheat and corn harvests for Marketing Year (MY) 2026/27, and Russia's grain exports for the first half of MY 2025/26 [2]. Other references acknowledged the IGC as a source for market information and its Grain Market Reports [1]. However, none of the provided links directly presented the precise requested data point—the combined wheat export volume from Russia and Ukraine for the 2025 calendar year specifically from the Q1 2026 report. Therefore, a comprehensive answer with this exact data is not possible based on the given research.
7. What Were Southern Plains Drought Conditions on October 1, 2025?
| Drought Severity (Oct 1, 2025) | 45% classified as D2 (Severe Drought) or worse [1] |
|---|---|
| Region Affected | U.S [2]. Southern Plains (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas) [1] |
| Data Source | U.S. Drought Monitor [1] |
By October 1, 2025, nearly half the Southern Plains faced severe drought. The U.S. Southern Plains region, encompassing Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, experienced significant multi-year drought conditions. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 45% of this combined area was classified as D2 (Severe Drought) or worse [1]. This figure indicated that a substantial portion of this vital agricultural region was under severe to extreme drought at the beginning of October 2025 [1].
October 1, 2025 data confirmed widespread severe drought status. While reports from later in October 2025 indicated some localized easing of severe drought within the Southern Plains, the U.S. Drought Monitor's assessment for October 1, 2025, firmly established extensive and severe drought conditions across a significant portion of the region at that specific time [1].
8. What Are China's Official Wheat Import Totals for 2024-2025?
| December 2024 Wheat Imports | 3.89 million metric tons [1] |
|---|---|
| December 2024 MoM Decrease | 65% [1] |
| Authoritative Data Source | General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) [2] |
The General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) will publish official 2025 wheat import totals. GACC serves as the authoritative body for China's official wheat import figures for the 2025 calendar year, with its comprehensive annual report expected to cover January through December 2025 [2]. Monthly releases from GACC, such as the data for November 2025, offer cumulative imports that contribute to the overall annual total [3]. A significant surge in China's wheat imports during December 2025 has also been reported, which will factor into the final 2025 annual figures [4]. Specific official annual wheat import totals for 2025 are not explicitly available within the current research.
China's 2024 official wheat import total is not yet published. For the 2024 calendar year, China's official wheat import volume would typically be found in the GACC's "China's Major Imports by Quantity and Value, December 2024" report, which provides cumulative year-to-date figures [5]. While the complete annual total for 2024 is not explicitly stated in the available research, wheat imports for December 2024 were reported at 3.89 million metric tons, reflecting a 65% decrease month-on-month [1].
Official annual wheat import totals for 2024 and 2025 are not explicitly available. Without full access to the content of the cited sources, these comprehensive annual figures for China's wheat imports for both 2024 and 2025 cannot be presented at this time.
Sources (5)
- 1CHINA DATA: Dec corn imports climb 44.2% MOM, wheat imports 65% lower at 3.89 mil mt | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwidehellenicshippingnews.com
- 2SunSirs: Analysis of China's Grain Imports by Country for January-December 2025sunsirs.com
- 3(6) China's Major Imports by Quantity and Value, Nov 2025 (in USD)english.customs.gov.cn
- 4China Wheat Imports Surge in December 2025 | Liz Thang posted on the topic | LinkedInlinkedin.com
- 5(6) China's Major Imports by Quantity and Value, December 2024 (in CNY)english.customs.gov.cn
9. Can Future Chicago SRW Wheat Positions Be Determined From CFTC Reports?
| Chicago SRW Wheat Net Position (Dec 2025) | Cannot be determined from available CFTC reports [1] |
|---|---|
| CFTC Report Data Type | Historical, reflecting past positions [2] |
| Report Date for Inquiry | December 30, 2025 (future date) [1] |
Future net positions for 'Managed Money' are currently unascertainable. The net position of 'Managed Money' in Chicago SRW Wheat futures as of December 30, 2025, cannot be determined using currently available CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) reports. These reports provide historical data, reflecting market positions on a specific past date and are released with a delay [1]. Since December 30, 2025, is a future date, the corresponding report detailing market positions has not yet been compiled or officially released by the CFTC. While the CFTC does provide a repository for historical reports, including URLs structured to host reports for dates such as December 30, 2025, these links will only contain relevant data once the actual reporting date has passed and the CFTC has officially published the information [1]. Consequently, the requested net position remains unascertainable.
Commitment of Traders reports offer transparency into historical market positions. These reports are designed to provide insights into market participant positions for various futures and options contracts, including agricultural commodities like Chicago SRW Wheat [2]. The reports classify traders into categories such as 'Managed Money', 'Producer/Merchant/Processor/User', 'Swap Dealers', and 'Other Reportables', detailing their long, short, and spreading positions [1]. The data presented in these reports reflects actual positions held on a specific past reporting date, offering insights into historical market sentiment and positioning.
