What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- WTI prices are pressured towards mid-$70s by easing Strait of Hormuz tensions.
- Market oversupply and geopolitical resolution drive WTI prices towards $70.
Current Context
Sources (12)
- 1World Oil Price per Barrel Today, Thursday, August 6, 2026: Brent US$80.10 and WTI US$75.72 - Pintu Newspintu.co.id
- 2WTI Crude Oil: $80.2 (Aug 3, 2026) | Convexconvextrade.com
- 3Why the WTI sell-off may be hiding a supply warningfxstreet.com
- 4Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Output Increase Meets Persistent Middle East Supply Risks | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 5Crude may remain range-bound with a bearish bias in August amid easing geopolitical risks, firm supply: Analysts | Businessdevdiscourse.com
- 6Crude may remain range-bound with a bearish bias in August amid easing geopolitical risks, firm supply: Analystsindianeconomicobserver.com
- 7Tight global inventories outweigh OPEC+ production increase, analyst saysworldoil.com
- 8Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
- 9Speech by Governor Cook on the outlook for the U.S. and Alaskan economies - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov
- 10Rapid Response 2026: Japan earthquake brings new wrinkle (Issue 7) - Automotive Technology Insight | Forecasts | Industry News | Supply Chainautotechinsight.spglobal.com
- 11Markets Mixed as Crude Oil Falls | Cboecboe.com
- 12Commodity Price Watch: July 2026spglobal.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: ↓ $75
📈 August 06, 2026: 25.0pp spike
Price increased from 50.0% to 75.0%
Outcome: ↑ $90
📉 August 05, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 30.0% to 21.0%
Outcome: ↑ $85
📉 August 04, 2026: 24.0pp drop
Price decreased from 67.5% to 43.5%
Outcome: ↑ $95
📉 August 03, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 33.5% to 23.5%
Outcome: ↓ $70
📈 August 02, 2026: 33.5pp spike
Price increased from 15.5% to 49.0%
Sources (14)
- 1WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Falls Below $80 as Trump Halts Iran Strikes; Will Prices Rise?tradingkey.com
- 2Crude may remain range-bound with a bearish bias in August amid easing geopolitical risks, firm supply: Analysts | Businessdevdiscourse.com
- 3Oil Prices Sink 5% As US-Iran Deal Hopes Ease Supply Fearsbusinesstoday.com.my
- 4'Hormuz deal with Iran today' Oil slips below $80 on truce hope - The Economic Timeseconomictimes.indiatimes.com
- 5Iran Says Hormuz Talks Underway, Stocks Rise as Oil Plunge | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
- 6What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?polymarket.com
- 7What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026 Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com
- 8Why the WTI sell-off may be hiding a supply warningfxstreet.com
- 9Oil Slips as Trump Holds Off Iran Attack, Says Talks to Resumefinance.yahoo.com
- 10Oil prices plunge and Europe’s markets rally after Trump calls off Iran strikes | Oil | The Guardiantheguardian.com
- 11Latest Oil Market News and Analysis for Aug. 3 - Bloombergbloomberg.com
- 12Oil drops, stocks gain amid Iran peace hopes; yen firms as investors watch for further intervention - CNAchannelnewsasia.com
- 13Oil Slumps as Trump Holds Off Iran Attack as Talks to Resumefinance.yahoo.com
- 14Oil Prices Surge as Global Supply Concerns Mount | Bakken Wirebakkenwire.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided Polymarket content, this market resolves to "Yes" if, at any point during August 2026 trading sessions, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures contract (as defined by CME specifications for active month changes) records a 1-minute candle "High" or "Low" price reaching or exceeding the listed target. It resolves to "No" if this condition is not met, or if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the specified timeframe. Resolution relies strictly on unrounded Pyth 1-minute candle data, with CME Group daily high/low prices serving as a fallback during technical disruptions, and prices adjusted for any contract specification or feed changes.
Market Discussion
The market largely anticipates WTI crude oil will fluctuate around its current $75/barrel price in August 2026, with a high probability of reaching $80 (77%) and a moderate chance of dropping to $70 (53%). This outlook is influenced by recent U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz easing supply risks, and the EIA's Q3 Brent forecast of $74/barrel, citing inventory builds and OPEC+ supply exceeding moderating demand. Traders are closely watching upcoming EIA updates, refinery margins, and OPEC production signals for further directional cues, with extreme price movements (above $95 or below $60) deemed unlikely.
5. Trader Dashboard
6. What specific geopolitical escalations in the Middle East are analysts watching as potential catalysts to push WTI crude above $90 in August 2026?
| WTI Crude Target | Above $90 by August 2026 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Market Observation Date | August 6, 2026 [1][5] |
| WTI $90 Consensus | No consensus expectation for WTI to hit $90 [1][5] |
Sources (8)
- 1Why the WTI sell-off may be hiding a supply warningfxstreet.com
- 2Tight global inventories outweigh OPEC+ production increase, analyst saysworldoil.com
- 3WTI steadies as geopolitical risk offsets supply outlooktradersunion.com
- 4Threat to oil tankers in Middle East worst since start of Iran war, analysts saybbc.com
- 5What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026 Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com
- 6Oil prices plunge and Europe’s markets rally after Trump calls off Iran strikes | Oil | The Guardiantheguardian.com
- 7‘In Trump we trust’: Why the oil market keeps believing him | CNN Businesscnn.com
- 8Oil Price Today (August 6): Crude oil dips below $80 on hopes Iran-Oman deal could end Iran war. What are experts saying? - The Economic Timeseconomictimes.indiatimes.com
7. What fundamental supply and demand data from the IEA and EIA's summer 2026 reports supports the bearish case for WTI crude falling towards $70 per barrel?
| EIA Inventory Build 4Q26 | 2.7 million barrels per day [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Brent Crude Price Forecast 4Q26 | $70/b [1][2][3] |
| Global Oil Demand Decline 2026 | 1.1 million barrels per day year-on-year [4][5][6][7] |
Sources (7)
- 1Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 2Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 3Short-Term Energy Outlookeia.gov
- 4Oil Market Report - July 2026 – Analysis - IEAiea.org
- 5Oil Market Report - June 2026 – Analysis - IEAiea.org
- 6Oil Market Report - May 2026 – Analysisiea.org
- 7Oil Market Report - April 2026 – Analysis - IEAiea.org
8. How does the price spread between Brent Crude and WTI in mid-2026 indicate WTI's vulnerability to global geopolitical risks versus U.S. domestic factors?
| WTI Expected Price Range (August 2026) | $70-$80, hovering near $75-$76 (as of August 6, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| WTI Price (July 23, 2026) | $90 per barrel (July 23, 2026) [3] |
| Brent Price (July 23, 2026) | Almost $100 per barrel (July 23, 2026) [3] |
Sources (8)
- 1What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?polymarket.com
- 2What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026 Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com
- 3Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 23rd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com
- 4Brent-WTI Spread Blows Out to $10 on Export Ban Speculation The WTI-Brent blowout: war risks meet the export ban threat | Kpler - Mar 19, 2026kpler.com
- 5Oil’s Hormuz Premium Shows Why Crude Cannot Trade on Fundamentals Alone | Investing.cominvesting.com
- 6The Brent-WTI Spread, Explained - Price of Oilpriceofoil.com
- 7International Brent versus Domestic WTI Crude Oil Price Differential Blowout | RBN Energyrbnenergy.com
- 8US-Iran Strikes Extend to 10th Day; Trump Vows 50% Tariff on Canadian Goods | Bloomberg...youtube.com
9. Which weekly inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and American Petroleum Institute (API) are most critical for oil traders in August 2026?
| API Report Release | Tuesday afternoons [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| EIA Report Release | Wednesday mornings [1][2][3] |
| WTI Crude Oil Price (August 6, 2026) | $75 per barrel [4][5] |
Sources (5)
- 1WTI Crude Oil Using API, EIA, and Technical Indicatorsliquidityfinder.com
- 2What API and EIA data reveal about crude oil marketsreuters.com
- 3Weekly Statistical Bulletinapi.org
- 4What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?polymarket.com
- 5What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026 Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com
10. How is the scheduled September 2026 OPEC+ production increase influencing trader positioning and price ceilings for WTI throughout August?
| OPEC+ Production Increase | 188,000 barrels per day (effective September 2026) [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Recent WTI Price Dip | $75-$79 [6][7][8][9] |
| WTI Support and Resistance | Support near $74-$75, resistance $82-$88 [6][7][8][9] |
Sources (10)
- 1OPEC+ agrees September oil hike, completing rollback of voluntary cutscnbc.com
- 2Oil Price Forecast: Will OPEC+’s September Output Increase Push WTI and Brent Lower? | XBTFX Blogxbtfx.com
- 3OPEC+ raises oil output for sixth straight month in Septemberfinance.yahoo.com
- 4Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countriesopec.org
- 5Oil prices drop as OPEC+ raises output and US-Iran tensions ease — European Pulseeuropeanpulse.com
- 6WTI Crude Oil outlook: Has the market priced the Hormuz recovery too soon?fxstreet.com
- 7Oil Price Forecast: Iran-Oman Talks Push WTI to $75 as Brent Tests $80 | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 8Why the WTI sell-off may be hiding a supply warningfxstreet.com
- 9Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Output Increase Meets Persistent Middle East Supply Risks | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 10OPEC’s Quiet Diplomacy: Supply Signals Drown Out the Dollar’s Distress · FXTORCHfxtorch.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: September 01, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026 Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com
- 2What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?polymarket.com
- 3Why the WTI sell-off may be hiding a supply warningfxstreet.com
- 4WTI Crude Oil outlook: Has the market priced the Hormuz recovery too soon?fxstreet.com
- 5COMMODITY TRACKER: 6 charts to watch this weekspglobal.com
- 6Platts Oilgram Price Reportspglobal.com
- 7Dwindling fuel reserves leave energy markets exposed to...spglobal.com
- 8Tight global inventories outweigh OPEC+ production increase, analyst saysworldoil.com
- 9Oil Markets Have Bought Time, Not Insurance - TD Economicseconomics.td.com
- 10Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Supply Shift, EIA Inventory Build Weigh on Crude | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 11Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Output Increase Meets Persistent Middle East Supply Risks | FXEmpirefxempire.com