Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Short Answer
MGM Resorts is not expected to be acquired before 2027; the market prices this outcome at 37.0%, while the model estimates a notably lower 24.1%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market reflects no trading activity. The price drift from an initial 4.9% to a current 3.6% is not attributable to any specific news or event, as zero contracts have been traded. These price changes are not indicative of trader sentiment or conviction, but rather the movements of an automated market maker in an illiquid market.
The persistently low probability assigned to an acquisition aligns with a lack of specific catalysts for the company. General M&A commentary for 2026 indicates that deal-making is concentrated in strategic acquisitions within the artificial intelligence sector and related infrastructure. The absence of reported M&A drivers in the consumer beverage industry likely contributes to the low probability and lack of trader interest in this market.
- Since last update (~28d): PayPal's model probability decreased -15.3pp, tracking a -21.0pp market drop, compressing the edge.
- GitLab's model probability increased +1.5pp, following market's +3.0pp rise, widening the edge.
- MGM Resorts saw its model drop -2.9pp, mirroring a -3.0pp decline in market probability.
- Viking Therapeutics' model decreased -3.1pp, tracking market's -5.0pp drop, compressing the edge.
- MGM Resorts may face antitrust challenges, providing evidence against a successful megadeal.
- Strategic AI gaps may drive Big Tech acquisition of GitLab before 2027.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pizza Hut | 100.0% | 1.2% | Determined: YES |
| Cursor | 100.0% | 1.2% | Determined: YES |
| Caesars Entertainment | 100.0% | 1.2% | Determined: YES |
| Warner Bros. Discovery | 100.0% | 1.2% | Determined: YES |
| iRobot | 100.0% | 1.2% | Determined: YES |
Current Context
The 2026 M&A landscape features a K-shaped recovery with strategic megadeals. Overall M&A activity in 2026 shows a "K-shaped" recovery, with deals exceeding $5 billion seeing a surge even as total deal volumes remain muted [^][^][^]. Artificial intelligence (AI) and related infrastructure, including data centers and semiconductors, are primary drivers for corporate M&A. Companies prioritize strategic acquisitions to bridge capability gaps in the AI sector and facilitate portfolio realignment [^][^][^].
Several definitive acquisition agreements are expected to close by late 2026 or early 2027. Weave Communications is slated for acquisition by Francisco Partners, DoubleVerify by Nielsen, and Masimo Corporation by Danaher Corporation [^][^][^]. Additionally, BioLife Solutions is set for acquisition by Repligen Corporation, and Supernus Pharmaceuticals is merging with Indivior Pharmaceuticals [^][^]. The acquisition of Personalis, Inc. by Tempus AI is anticipated to close in late 2026 or early 2027 [^].
Numerous other significant acquisitions are pending or proposed through 2027. As of August 2026, major pending deals include the Paramount Skydance takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, with a trial scheduled for March 2, 2027. Union Pacific’s merger with Norfolk Southern is ongoing, alongside acquisitions involving Charter/Cox, Boston Scientific/Penumbra, and Santander/Webster Financial [^]. Other notable proposed transactions are Eli Lilly/Ventyx Biosciences, Netflix/Warner Bros. Discovery, SoftBank/DigitalBridge, Sanofi/Dynavax Technologies, and Google/Wiz [^]. Transactions slated for completion in 2027 include the acquisition of Iridium Communications by Rocket Lab and the merger of Lantheus Holdings with Curium US [^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 August 28, 2026: 34.0pp drop
Price decreased from 45.5% to 11.5%
Outcome: PayPal
What happened: The primary driver for the 34.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price for PayPal's acquisition on August 28, 2026, was the traditional news announcement that a consortium led by Stripe and Advent International officially abandoned its $53 billion pursuit of the company [^][^][^]. This decision, reported by major financial news outlets on that date, directly reduced the likelihood of PayPal being acquired before 2027, causing a significant 13-18% drop in PayPal's stock price [^][^][^]. There is no evidence of specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives directly preceding or coinciding with this price movement in the provided information. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this specific price move.
📉 August 21, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 59.5% to 48.5%
Outcome: PayPal
What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point drop in the "PayPal" acquisition prediction market on August 21, 2026, was breaking news that a potential acquisition had fallen through. Reports in late August 2026 indicated that a consortium involving Stripe and Advent International had abandoned its pursuit of PayPal, causing PayPal's stock to decline significantly [^][^][^][^][^]. This traditional news directly countered earlier reports of acquisition talks heating up on August 14, 2026, and led to a sharp decrease in the perceived likelihood of PayPal being acquired [^]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or particularly relevant to this specific movement based on the provided research.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if credible reporting confirms an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This includes mergers where the listed company is subsumed, and the "Yes" resolution is triggered by the announced agreement, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. Otherwise, the market resolves to "No." Resolution sources will primarily be official information from the listed company, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warner Bros. Discovery | $1.00 | $0.00 | 100% |
| Caesars Entertainment | $1.00 | $0.00 | 100% |
| Cursor | $1.00 | $0.00 | 100% |
| iRobot | $1.00 | $0.00 | 100% |
| Pizza Hut | $1.00 | $0.00 | 100% |
| MGM Resorts | $0.35 | $0.66 | 37% |
| Brown-Forman | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Lovable | $0.15 | $0.87 | 15% |
| Perplexity AI | $0.15 | $0.86 | 14% |
| Viking Therapeutics | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Snapchat | $0.14 | $0.87 | 13% |
| PayPal | $0.13 | $0.88 | 12% |
| GitLab | $0.11 | $0.91 | 11% |
| Zoom Video Communications | $0.08 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Ubisoft | $0.09 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Nebius Group | $0.04 | $0.96 | 4% |
| BP | $0.03 | $0.97 | 3% |
| OpenAI | $0.03 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Anthropic | $0.03 | $0.97 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Prediction markets are actively speculating on companies like MGM Resorts, Viking Therapeutics, Nebius Group, Perplexity AI, and Snapchat being acquired before 2027 [1-5]. Financial and tech analysts widely characterize 2026 as an active year for M&A, driven by a "build vs. buy" urgency, particularly in AI infrastructure, data centers, and enterprise software [6-9].
5. Trust Index
Corporate action: boards, bankers, and counsel hold the answer before the announcement
Integrity risk· Information exposure
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score53Caution
Trade quality20% of score43High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score51Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 2 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. What market pressures or debt loads facing Warner Bros. Discovery could accelerate a sale to a company like Netflix or Paramount before 2027?
| Acquisition Price | $110.9 billion ($31 per share) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Announcement Date | February 27, 2026 [^][^] |
| Projected Net Debt (Combined) | roughly $79 billion [^][^][^] |
Warner Bros. Discovery agreed to a significant acquisition driven by financial pressures. On February 27, 2026, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) entered a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by Paramount Skydance for $110.9 billion, equivalent to $31 per share, following a competitive bidding process that included Netflix [^][^]. The primary motivations for this agreement stemmed from market pressures facing WBD, particularly high debt loads and the declining value of linear cable networks [^][^][^][^].
The acquisition faces significant delays and substantial debt concerns. The proposed acquisition of WBD by Paramount Skydance is currently stalled due to antitrust litigation initiated by 12 states, which led to a temporary freeze imposed by a federal judge [^]. This legal challenge has postponed the deal's closure until at least June 1, 2027, pending the outcome of an antitrust trial scheduled for March 2027 [^]. Furthermore, the merger's structure is projected to create a combined entity with approximately $79 billion in net debt, which would substantially increase the financial risk profile compared to standalone operations or the alternative Netflix offer [^][^][^].
Current information does not indicate acceleration of the stalled deal. While the initial pursuit of a sale was underpinned by these market pressures and considerable debt loads, the provided facts do not specify how these conditions could accelerate the completion of the currently stalled acquisition before 2027, given its projected delay until at least June 1, 2027 [^][^][^][^][^].
7. What recent FTC and DOJ antitrust actions provide evidence against a successful megadeal involving companies like MGM Resorts or BP before 2027?
| US Antitrust Enforcement Shift | Pragmatic approach with settlements and federal court reliance (as of September 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Shell-BP Acquisition Status | Speculation dampened by abandoned prior talks and regulatory complexity [^][^] |
| MGM Resorts M&A Interest | Active, speculative M&A interest; prediction markets track probabilities before 2027 (as of September 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
U.S. antitrust enforcement shifts pose challenges for megadeals before 2027. Recent actions by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and Department of Justice (DOJ) suggest that successful megadeals involving companies such as MGM Resorts or BP are improbable before 2027, primarily due to substantial regulatory complexity and increased scrutiny. As of September 2026, U.S. antitrust enforcement has adopted a more pragmatic approach, characterized by an increased use of settlements and a preference for federal courts over in-house administrative law judges for challenging mergers [^][^][^].
Regulatory scrutiny significantly dampens major acquisition prospects, influencing market predictions. This shift in enforcement, combined with existing regulatory complexities, has reduced speculation regarding potential megadeals. For instance, prior talks for a Shell-BP acquisition were abandoned [^][^]. While MGM Resorts remains a subject of active, albeit speculative, merger and acquisition (M&A) interest, prediction markets as of September 2026 indicate that probabilities for potential acquisitions before 2027 fluctuate considerably, directly influenced by both market sentiment and regulatory oversight. This explicit correlation underscores regulatory supervision as a critical impediment to the successful completion of megadeals [^][^][^][^][^].
8. How do the acquisition profiles of Viking Therapeutics and Madrigal Pharmaceuticals compare in terms of their drug pipelines and appeal to a large pharmaceutical acquirer?
| Viking Therapeutics Acquisition Probability (by 2027) | 38-40% to 60% (May-June 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Madrigal Pharmaceuticals MASH Drug Approval | First FDA-approved MASH drug, Rezdiffra [^][^][^][^] |
| Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Credit Facility | $500 million (July 2025) [^] |
Viking Therapeutics and Madrigal Pharmaceuticals present distinct acquisition profiles based on pipelines and market focus. Viking Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company concentrated on metabolic diseases, specifically obesity and MASH. Its advanced clinical assets in the significantly larger obesity market position it as an attractive acquisition target [^][^][^][^]. In contrast, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage company recognized for Rezdiffra, the first FDA-approved MASH drug, with its primary value derived from commercial success within the niche MASH market [^][^][^][^].
Viking's broader obesity market potential appeals more to large acquirers. The considerably larger obesity market, compared to the niche MASH market, enhances Viking Therapeutics' appeal to large pharmaceutical acquirers [^]. Speculation in prediction markets during May-June 2026 indicated an implied probability ranging from 38-40% to 60% for Viking's acquisition before 2027 [^][^][^][^]. Conversely, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals appears to be prioritizing organic growth and internal pipeline expansion, focusing on strengthening its leadership in the MASH market. This strategy is evidenced by a $500 million credit facility secured in July 2025 to advance its pipeline and business development, suggesting it is not primarily positioned as an acquisition target [^][^][^][^].
9. What public data on options activity and insider trading for potential targets like iRobot can be analyzed to forecast an acquisition before 2027?
| Options Activity Signal Timing | typically within 30 days before an announcement [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Insider Trading Signal Timing | year prior to an announcement [^][^] |
| Insider Trading Tracking Source | SEC Form 4 filings [^][^][^][^] |
Unusual options activity often signals potential acquisition announcements. To forecast an acquisition, public data on options activity can be analyzed by monitoring unusual volume spikes, particularly in out-of-the-money (OTM) calls. 'Sweep' orders, in particular, indicate institutional urgency and frequently occur within 30 days before an announcement [^][^][^][^][^]. Additionally, insider trading data serves as a significant signal, especially when target firm insiders show high net purchase ratios in the year prior to an acquisition announcement [^][^].
Insider trading is publicly tracked, supplemented by M&A platforms. This insider trading activity is made public through mandated SEC Form 4 filings. Financial tools aggregate this information, providing insights into net buying/selling trends or issuing cluster-buy alerts [^][^][^][^]. For comprehensive merger and acquisition (M&A) tracking, specialized platforms such as S&P Global or FactSet synthesize regulatory filings, press releases, and market news, although many high-fidelity tools are subscription-based [^][^][^][^].
10. What strategic AI gaps could drive a Big Tech acquisition of a company like GitLab or Zoom before 2027?
| GitLab Acquisition Probability | 8-19.5% by 2027 (September 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Zoom Acquisition Probability | 10-17.7% by 2027 [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Key AI Acquisition Gaps | Distribution expansion and infrastructure-layer assets [^][^] |
Strategic AI gaps may drive Big Tech acquisitions before 2027. Acquisitions by Big Tech before 2027 are anticipated to be influenced by strategic AI gaps, primarily focusing on "distribution expansion" to integrate AI capabilities into existing enterprise ecosystems and the pursuit of infrastructure-layer assets. These identified gaps include integrating AI into cloud platforms, developer toolsets, and productivity suites [^][^].
GitLab offers strategic value but shows low acquisition probability. Its AI-native DevSecOps platform holds strategic value, aligning with addressing the "distribution expansion" gap by integrating AI into "developer toolsets" within enterprise environments. However, as of September 2026, prediction markets indicate a low probability, approximately 8-19.5%, of GitLab being acquired before 2027. Despite its strategic relevance, there are no active deal discussions noted [^][^][^][^].
Zoom faces competitive pressure and also a low acquisition probability. The company confronts significant competitive pressure from integrated AI productivity suites, suggesting a potential fit for addressing a "distribution expansion" gap through AI integration into its own productivity offerings. Despite this, prediction markets indicate Zoom's acquisition probability before 2027 is similarly low, approximately 10-17.7%. This uncertainty is attributed to its stock decline post-pandemic, ongoing competitive pressures, and a complex $1.2 billion strategic investment in Anthropic [^][^][^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Prediction markets track various potential M&A targets for 2026, with iRobot and Caesars Entertainment already resolved as acquired due to prior agreements [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Predictions & Odds | Papermarket | Papermarket" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^][^][^]. Current market-implied high-probability candidates for acquisition before 2027 include MGM Resorts, Warner Bros. Discovery, Viking Therapeutics, and Brown-Forman [^][^]. Broader M&A drivers for 2026 are heavily influenced by AI-related infrastructure needs, strategic portfolio realignments, and the requirement for private equity firms to monetize aging portfolio companies [^][^][^].
Several specific acquisitions are expected to close in 2026. Nielsen is expected to complete its acquisition of DoubleVerify by the end of Q4 2026 [^]. Navitas Semiconductor is expected to close its acquisition of Claros before the end of 2026 [^]. Francisco Partners is anticipated to complete its acquisition of Weave Communications in Q4 2026 [^]. Autodesk's acquisition of MaintainX is expected to close later in fiscal year 2026 [^]. The acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery by Paramount Skydance was expected to close in Q3 2026, with a ticking fee provision if not completed by September 30, 2026 [^]. Tempus AI's acquisition of Personalis is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027 [^], and Bending Spoons' acquisition of Airtable is expected to close in 2026 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: January 01, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Prediction markets track various potential M&A targets for 2026, with iRobot and Caesars Entertainment already resolved as acquired due to prior agreements [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Current market-implied high-probability candidates for acquisition before 2027 include MGM Resorts, Warner Bros.
- Trigger: Discovery, Viking Therapeutics, and Brown-Forman [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Broader M&A drivers for 2026 are heavily influenced by AI-related infrastructure needs, strategic portfolio realignments, and the requirement for private equity firms to monetize aging portfolio companies [^] [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
