Short Answer

Dick's comparable sales for Q3 2026 are expected to exceed 2%, driven by Wall Street analyst consensus at 3.5% growth, which remains within the company's full-year guidance of 2.5% to 4.0% for its core business, a prospect the market prices at 72%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

A 71.0 percentage point spike in this market on August 31 has no specific corresponding news catalyst. The price jump from 1.0% to 72.0% occurred six days after Dick's Sporting Goods announced Q2 2026 comparable sales growth of 4.9% on August 25. That Q2 figure exceeded the Wall Street consensus forecast for Q3 2026 comparable sales, which is approximately 3.5%. The market's re-rating appears to be a delayed reaction to the stronger-than-expected Q2 performance.
The move itself occurred on very thin trading. According to sample data, the initial price jump registered on zero volume, suggesting it may reflect an initial price set by a market maker or a few early trades establishing a new level, rather than a broad-based shift in sentiment backed by significant capital flow. The total volume traded across the market's history is 1,677 contracts.
  • Comparable sales above 2% are probable, supported by the 3.5% analyst consensus.
  • Exceeding 3% comparable sales is likely, despite anticipated Q3 promotional pressures.
  • The company's 2.5% to 4.0% full-year guidance underpins these expectations.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 2% 65.0% 65.6% Model higher by 0.6pp
Above 3% 38.0% 37.3% Market higher by 0.7pp
Above 4% 17.0% 15.1% Market higher by 1.9pp
Above 6% 4.0% 0.3% Market higher by 3.7pp
Above 0% 0.0% 70.0% Model higher by 70.0pp

Current Context

Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) has not yet reported its Q3 2026 financial results. The company typically schedules these reports for late November [1][2][3]. Wall Street analysts' consensus forecast for DKS comparable store sales growth in Q3 2026 is approximately 3.5% [4][5]. Individual estimates vary, with Telsey Advisory Group projecting 4% and Truist Securities anticipating 4.5% [4][5]. No specific Q3 2026 comparable-store sales value is reported in the provided evidence [6][7][8][9].
The company maintained its annual comparable sales growth guidance for its core business. In its Q2 2026 earnings report, released August 25, 2026, DKS affirmed its core business annual comparable sales growth outlook at 2.5% to 4.0% [5][10][11][12]. This guidance came alongside a lowered pro forma comparable sales outlook for the Foot Locker business to a range of negative 2% to flat [5][10][11][12]. For the 13 weeks ended August 1, 2026 (Q2 2026), DKS's core business reported a comparable sales increase of 4.9% [3][6][7][8][9]. This growth was driven by a 3.6% increase in average ticket and a 1.3% increase in transactions, showing broad strength across footwear, apparel, and hardlines [6][7][8][9]. Conversely, Foot Locker pro forma comparable sales decreased 3.6% in Q2 2026, impacted by a challenging athletic footwear marketplace [12][6][7][8][9].
Management commentary suggests a more promotional environment for Q3. No specific numerical Q3 comparable sales guidance was provided by management [6][7][8][9]. DKS expects a continuation of a more promotional environment, with gross margin pressure most pronounced in Q3, particularly within athletic footwear and apparel [1][2][4][6][7][8][9]. The company intends to participate in pricing to protect market share, rather than leading price cuts [1][2][6][7][8][9].
Sources (12)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods Past Earnings Performancesimplywall.st
  2. 2Dick's Sporting Goods earnings date - DKStipranks.com
  3. 3Documentsec.gov
  4. 4Seeking Clues to Dick's (DKS) Q3 Earnings? A Peek Into Wall Street Projections for Key Metricsfinviz.com
  5. 5Dick's Core Business Grew Comparable Sales 4.9% While Foot Locker's Fell 3.6%. Here's Why the Full-Year Guidance Still Came Down. | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6DKS_Q22026, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  7. 7DKS_Q22026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  8. 8DKS_Q22026, Page: 1Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  9. 9DKS_Q22026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  10. 10Dick's Sporting cuts forecasts as weak sneaker demand...reuters.com
  11. 11DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Resultsprnewswire.com
  12. 12Dick's Sporting Goods Q2 2026 earnings miss, cuts full-...finance.yahoo.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 31, 2026: 71.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 72.0%

Outcome: Above 2%

What happened: The provided web research offers no evidence of social media activity or traditional news that would explain a 71.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for Dick's Q3 comparable sales on August 31, 2026. On August 25, 2026, the company announced Q2 comparable sales of 4.9% but subsequently faced a significant stock decline due to lowered financial outlooks [1]. The only company announcement on August 31, 2026, was regarding participation in a future conference, which did not include any Q3 sales figures or a positive forecast [2]. Based on the available information, social media activity was irrelevant as a primary driver, as no corresponding event or narrative was found to explain the described market movement.
Sources (2)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Resultsprnewswire.com
  2. 2DICK'S Sporting Goods Announces Participation in the Goldman Sachs 33rd Annual Global Consumer and Retail Conferencefinviz.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "Dick's comparable sales in Q3: Above 3%" market, a YES resolution occurs if Dick's comparable sales growth in Q3 is greater than 3%. Conversely, a NO resolution is triggered if the comparable sales growth is 3% or less. The market is scheduled to end on November 24 at 7:00 AM EST; no special settlement conditions are explicitly detailed in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 2% $0.68 $0.42 65%
Above 3% $0.43 $0.67 38%
Above 4% $0.20 $0.90 17%
Above 6% $0.06 $0.99 4%
Above 0% $0.98 $0.09 0%
Above 1% $0.93 $0.17 0%
Above 5% $0.10 $0.98 0%

Market Discussion

Dick's Sporting Goods maintained its fiscal year 2026 comparable sales outlook for the 'DICK'S business' at 2.5% to 4.0% growth as of August 25, 2026 [1]. Wall Street analysts' consensus for Q3 comparable sales is approximately 3.5%, with individual forecasts ranging from 2.5% to 4.5% [2][3]. While Foot Locker's underperformance is creating headwinds for the consolidated company outlook, its comparable sales are not included in Dick's quarterly calculations until Q4 fiscal 2026, meaning it is not expected to directly impact Q3 comparable sales for the core business [1][2][4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2EXEC: Wall Street Eager to Hear Foot Locker Strategy on Dick’s SG’s Q3 Call | SGB Media Onlinesgbonline.com
  3. 3DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) Q2 2026 Earnings Call: Foot Locker Pressures Cut Outlooktradingkey.com
  4. 4Dick's Core Business Grew Comparable Sales 4.9% While Foot Locker's Fell 3.6%. Here's Why the Full-Year Guidance Still Came Down. | The Motley Foolfool.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 59 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score67Caution
Trade quality20% of score38High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score59Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity93
Outcome is hard to influenceStrong
Info fairness40
High Risk
Trade quality38
Order book is critically thinHigh Risk
Market integrity
93Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Trade quality
38High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

Move quality avg 71 across 1 legs

$100 order: 5.0c slippage (~8% of a 63c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Above 2%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (7d)

Price was stable over the last 7 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 3%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality71Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
71 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 6d

No trades in the last 6d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 1, 2026

6. What is the consensus and range of Wall Street analyst forecasts for Dick's Q3 2026 comparable sales?

Q3 2026 Comparable Sales ConsensusApproximately 3.5% YoY growth [1][2]
Q3 2026 Comparable Sales Forecast Range2.5% to 4.5% [2]
Full-Year Comparable Sales Outlook (Core Business)2.5% to 4.0% [3][4]
Wall Street analysts project a 3.5% comparable sales growth for Dick's Q3 2026. Analysts forecast that Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) will achieve approximately 3.5% year-over-year comparable sales growth for its core business during Q3 2026 [1][2]. Individual analyst projections for Q3 2026 comparable sales vary, with a reported range from 2.5% to 4.5% [2].
Dick's Sporting Goods upheld its full-year sales growth forecast. This decision followed a significant adjustment to the company's guidance in late August 2026, after which Dick's Sporting Goods maintained its existing full-year comparable sales growth outlook. The company's core 'DICK'S' business continues to be projected for comparable sales growth between 2.5% and 4.0% for the full year [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Seeking Clues to Dick's (DKS) Q3 Earnings? A Peek Into Wall Street Projections for Key Metricsfinviz.com
  2. 2EXEC: Wall Street Eager to Hear Foot Locker Strategy on Dick’s SG’s Q3 Call | SGB Media Onlinesgbonline.com
  3. 3DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Resultsprnewswire.com
  4. 4Dick's Sporting cuts forecasts as weak sneaker demand...reuters.com

7. What do recent U.S. Census Bureau retail sales reports for August and September 2026 suggest about consumer spending on sporting goods?

Census Bureau August/September 2026 Retail SalesNot yet released (as of September 1, 2026) [1][2]
DICK'S Sporting Goods Full-Year Comparable Sales Growth Outlook2.5% to 4.0% (Q2 2026 earnings) [3]
DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 2026 Margin OutlookExpected to be more challenging than Q4 due to promotional pressure [4][5]
Official Census Bureau data for August and September 2026 is not yet available. As of September 1, 2026, the U.S. Census Bureau's retail sales reports do not yet show data for August or September 2026 [1][2]. Consequently, these reports offer no insights into consumer spending on sporting goods for those specific months. The latest available data from the Census Bureau covers periods through July 2026, with the next release of retail estimates scheduled for later in September [1][2].
DICK'S Sporting Goods expects continued promotional pressure affecting margins. In its Q2 2026 earnings report, released on August 25, 2026, DICK'S Sporting Goods reaffirmed its full-year comparable sales growth outlook for the DICK'S business, projecting an increase of 2.5% to 4.0% [3]. The company highlighted a highly promotional environment in athletic footwear and apparel, which it anticipates will continue throughout Q3 and Q4 [3][4]. Furthermore, DICK'S Sporting Goods' management indicated that Q3 2026 is expected to present greater challenges for margins compared to Q4, as persistent promotional pressure necessitates the company's investment in price to maintain market share [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Monthly Retail Trade - Sales Reportcensus.gov
  2. 2Monthly Retail Trade - Main Pagecensus.gov
  3. 3DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Resultsfinance.yahoo.com
  4. 4https://finance.biggo.com/quote/DKS/earnings-call/US_DKS_2026-08-25finance.biggo.com
  5. 5Dick's Sporting cuts forecasts as weak sneaker demand...reuters.com

8. How does Dick's actual Q2 2026 comp sales growth of +4.9% compare to its historical Q3 performance over the prior three years?

Q2 2026 Comparable Sales Growth+4.9% (for Q2 2026) [1][2][3][4][5]
Q3 2023 Comparable Sales Growth1.7% (in 2023) [6][7]
Full-Year 2026 Comparable Sales Outlook2.5% to 4.0% (for full-year 2026) [1][3][8]
Dick's Q2 2026 comparable sales growth surpassed recent Q3 performance. Dick's Sporting Goods reported a comparable sales growth of +4.9% for the second quarter of 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. This growth rate is higher than its historical third-quarter comparable sales growth of 1.7% in 2023, but it falls below the 5.7% observed in the third quarter of 2025 [6][7].
The company's full-year outlook anticipates Q3 deleverage. Historically, the DICK'S business experienced third-quarter comparable sales growth of 1.7% in 2023 and 5.7% in 2025 [6][7]. As of September 1, 2026, the full-year 2026 comparable sales growth outlook for the DICK'S business remains between 2.5% and 4.0% [1][3][8]. Management noted that this full-year guidance includes an expectation of approximately 50 basis points of deleverage in the third quarter of 2026 [1][3][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Resultsprnewswire.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Resultss27.q4cdn.com
  4. 4Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) earnings Q2 2026cnbc.com
  5. 5Transcript: Dick's Sporting Goods Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call | Longbridgelongbridge.com
  6. 6News Detailsinvestors.dicks.com
  7. 7DICK's SPORTING GOODS, INC. quarterly report, Q3 FY2025 (NYSE:DKS) | MetaTradermetatrader.com
  8. 8DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) Q2 2026 Earnings Call: Foot Locker Pressures Cut Outlooktradingkey.com

9. When is Dick's Sporting Goods scheduled to report its official Q3 2026 financial results?

Q3 2026 Earnings ReleaseNovember 24 or 25, 2026 [1][2]
Historical Q3 Earnings ReleaseLate November [1][2]
Prediction Market Sentiment (Comparable Store Sales)Tracking 'Above 2%' and 'Above 3%' [3]
DICK'S Sporting Goods' Q3 2026 earnings are expected in late November. The company is projected to release its third-quarter 2026 financial results on either November 24 or November 25, 2026. This anticipated timing is consistent with the company's historical practice of announcing its Q3 earnings towards the end of November [1][2].
Prediction markets are observing comparable store sales for Q3 2026. These markets are actively monitoring DICK'S Sporting Goods' comparable store sales performance for the third quarter of 2026. Current market sentiment indicates a specific focus on performance metrics, particularly 'Above 2%' and 'Above 3%' [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Calendar DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. - MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  2. 2https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2025-11-25-dicks-sporting-goods-inc-stock/marketbeat.com
  3. 3Dick's comparable sales in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

10. How might the promotional strategies of competitors like Academy Sports and Nike during the back-to-school season affect Dick's Q3 2026 sales?

Challenging Quarter IdentifiedQ3 2026 (Dick's management) [1][2]
Q3 2026 Comp Sales Probability72% probability will exceed 2% (Prediction market, as of Sep 1, 2026) [3]
Competitor Promotional StrategyAcademy emphasizes "market-leading everyday value pricing" and "standout promotions" [4][5][6][4][7][8][9]
Dick's Q3 2026 sales face significant competitive promotional pressure. Dick's Sporting Goods is projected to encounter a challenging back-to-school season in Q3 2026, primarily due to aggressive promotional strategies from competitors [1][2][10][11]. Dick's management has explicitly identified this quarter as the most difficult of the year, anticipating persistent promotional pressure in athletic footwear and apparel that will compress margins and necessitate deleverage in selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses [1][2]. Despite these anticipated difficulties, prediction market activity as of September 1, 2026, indicates a 72% probability that Dick's comparable sales in Q3 2026 will exceed 2% [3].
Academy Sports' aggressive promotions will intensify price competition. Academy Sports is a particularly relevant competitor for the back-to-school season, consistently emphasizing value pricing, promotions, and traffic-driving activities [2][5][6][4][7][8][9]. Academy has highlighted "market-leading everyday value pricing" and "standout promotions" for families, implemented thousands of lower prices across various categories, offered loyalty benefits, giveaways, and facilitated participation in tax-free weekends [5][6][4][7][8][9]. This aggressive promotional stance is likely to compel Dick's to engage in margin-dilutive price matching or promotional discounting throughout Q3 to maintain and expand its market position [1][2][10][11].
Nike's marketing investments will contribute to overall promotional intensity. Nike's 2026 filing indicated an increase in "investment in demand creation including brand marketing and sports marketing, to support key product launches and sports moments" [5][6][4][7][8][9]. If Nike aggressively supports product launches while retailers like Academy, which featured Nike items in its back-to-school assortment, offer discounts around these events, Dick's could experience increased category demand alongside intensified pressure to compete on price [5][6][4][7][8][9]. The evidence suggests that Dick's Q3 2026 comparable sales will be significantly influenced by a back-to-school period characterized by elevated promotional intensity, driven by Academy's value-led campaigns and the momentum from Nike-backed assortments [5][6][4][7][8][9].
Sources (11)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Resultsprnewswire.com
  2. 2https://finance.biggo.com/quote/DKS/earnings-call/US_DKS_2026-08-25finance.biggo.com
  3. 3Dick's comparable sales in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  5. 5sec.govOctagon Agent
  6. 6www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  7. 7www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  8. 8www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  9. 9www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  10. 10Dick's Sporting Goods Stock Crashes as Q2 Earnings Plunge and Recovery Outlook Dimsmarket.news
  11. 11Dick's Sporting cuts forecasts as weak sneaker demand...reuters.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Dick's Sporting Goods is projected to release its Q3 2026 financial results on November 24, 2026 [1]. Management has designated Q3 2026 as the most challenging quarter of the year, citing pronounced gross margin pressure and an expected ~50 basis points of SG&A deleverage at the midpoint [2][3][4].
Following the Q2 2026 earnings report on August 25, 2026 [5], the company maintained its core Dick's Business comparable sales growth guidance of 2.5% to 4.0% [6][2][4]. Conversely, the Foot Locker Business pro forma comparable sales outlook was lowered to negative 2.0% to 0.0% from prior expectations of growth [6][2][4]. For fiscal year 2026, Dick's Sporting Goods maintains a comparable sales growth outlook of 2.5% to 4.0% for the DICK'S Business segment [7]. The Foot Locker Business will be included in quarterly comparable store sales calculations beginning in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 [7].
Bullish catalysts for Q3/Q4 include successful Foot Locker turnaround efforts, normalization of inventory levels, and easing promotional pressures [6][3][1]. Bearish catalysts center on persistent promotional retail environments, weakness in athletic footwear demand, and geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds in EMEA [6][3][1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 24, 2027
  • Closes: March 24, 2027
Sources (7)
  1. 1https://finance.biggo.com/news/US_DKS_2026-08-25finance.biggo.com
  2. 2DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) Q2 2026 Earnings Call: Foot Locker Pressures Cut Outlooktradingkey.com
  3. 3https://finance.biggo.com/quote/DKS/earnings-call/US_DKS_2026-08-25finance.biggo.com
  4. 4Dick's Core Business Grew Comparable Sales 4.9% While Foot Locker's Fell 3.6%. Here's Why the Full-Year Guidance Still Came Down. | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5dks-20260824sec.gov
  6. 6Dick's Sporting cuts forecasts as weak sneaker demand...reuters.com
  7. 7Documentsec.gov

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 6 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXDKS-26AUGCOMP-7: NO (Aug 25, 2026)
  • KXDKS-26AUGCOMP-6: NO (Aug 25, 2026)
  • KXDKS-26AUGCOMP-5: NO (Aug 25, 2026)
  • KXDKS-26AUGCOMP-4: YES (Aug 25, 2026)
  • KXDKS-26AUGCOMP-3: YES (Aug 25, 2026)