Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Dick's Sporting Goods comparable store sales in fiscal 2026 to be Above 2% (16.7% model vs 0.0% market). This reflects strong Q1 2026 comparable sales growth and subsequently raised full-year guidance.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action is defined by a single, sharp upward movement on its first day of activity. The probability of Dick's Sporting Goods reporting positive comparable store sales for fiscal 2026 jumped from an initial 1.0% to 95.0% on August 7, 2026, where it has since remained. This immediate repricing aligns directly with the company's own financial projections. Management issued guidance forecasting positive comparable store sales growth for both its core Dick's business (+2.5% to +4.0%) and its recently acquired Foot Locker stores (+1.5% to +3.0%). The market price moved to reflect this high likelihood of a "YES" resolution based on the official company outlook.
Despite the decisive price level, there has been zero trading volume. This indicates the current 95.0% probability is not the result of active buying and selling but rather an initial pricing set by a market maker or an unfilled order. The lack of traded contracts suggests there is currently no market consensus or conviction at this price. While the price implies overwhelming confidence that the company will achieve its sales growth target, the absence of trading activity means this sentiment has not been tested or confirmed by market participants. The key price points are the floor at 1.0% and the current ceiling at 95.0%, but without any trading, these cannot be considered true support or resistance levels.
  • Comparable sales above 2%, 3%, or 4% are most probable outcomes.
  • Core DICK'S business guides 2.5-4.0% growth, Foot Locker 1.5-3.0% pro forma.
  • Persistent inflation and rising energy costs pose risks to achieving targets.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 5% 33.0% 15.0% Market higher by 18.0pp
Above 7% 6.0% 4.0% Market higher by 2.0pp
Above 2% 0.0% 16.7% Model higher by 16.7pp
Above 3% 0.0% 16.7% Model higher by 16.7pp
Above 4% 0.0% 16.7% Model higher by 16.7pp

Current Context

Dick's Sporting Goods projects fiscal 2026 comparable store sales growth. The company forecasts comparable store sales growth for its namesake business between positive 2.5% and 4.0% for fiscal 2026, with the Foot Locker business projected at positive 1.5% to 3.0% on a proforma basis [1][2][3][4]. Foot Locker stores will be included in the consolidated quarterly comparable store sales calculation starting in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, after reaching their 14th full month of operations post-acquisition [1][4][3][5]. For the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (13 weeks ended May 2, 2026), the DICK'S business reported 6.0% proforma comparable sales growth, while Foot Locker showed 0.6% proforma growth. Consolidated proforma comparable sales growth for Q1 2026 was 4.1% [2][6][7][4]. Total net sales for the quarter reached $5.16 billion, with $3.38 billion from the DICK'S Business and $1.79 billion from the Foot Locker Business [8][9].
Management provided a full-year 2026 consolidated outlook. This outlook includes net sales of $22.1–22.4 billion, non-GAAP operating income between $1.71–1.83 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of $13.50–14.50 [6][10]. Strategic initiatives for 2026 include the "Fast Break" program, which aims to enhance Foot Locker stores through improved merchandising and apparel. The plan targets scaling this refresh to 250 stores by the back-to-school season [11][7]. Q2 2026 earnings are expected around August 25, 2026, and will serve as a key progress update for the Foot Locker turnaround and integration [7].
Sources (11)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsinvestors.dicks.com
  2. 2Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) earnings Q1 2026 - CNBCcnbc.com
  3. 3Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (DKS) 10-Q Quarterly Report June 2026last10k.com
  4. 4Documentsec.gov
  5. 5Documentsec.gov
  6. 6DICK'S Sporting Goods posts Q1 2026 results | DKS 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  7. 7DICK’S Sporting Goods Stock Falls After Q1 2026 Earnings: Was the Selloff Justified? | TIKR.comtikr.com
  8. 8dks-20260502 - SEC.govsec.gov
  9. 9https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1089063/000108906326000027/0001089063-26-000027.txtsec.gov
  10. 10DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  11. 11Another strong quarter for Dick’s quells some Foot Locker fears | Retail Diveretaildive.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 07, 2026: 90.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 91.0%

Outcome: Above 3%

What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market's 90.0 percentage point spike on August 7, 2026, appears to be the traditional news surrounding Dick's Sporting Goods' Q2 2026 earnings report and an expanded partnership. Despite a slight EPS miss, the company's stock jumped 5.15% following the earnings release, indicating overall positive sentiment that likely included confidence in future comparable store sales [1]. This confidence was reinforced by the announcement of an expanded partnership with Perfect Game USA [2] and the company's fiscal 2026 guidance projecting comparable store sales growth between 2.5% and 4.0% for the DICK'S Business, making "Above 3%" a plausible outcome [3]. No social media activity was found to coincide with or lead this significant price movement, rendering it irrelevant.
Sources (3)
  1. 1DKS Q2 2026 Earnings: EPS Slightly Misses but Stock Jumps 5.15% - Estimate Revision Countmarking.cxc.org
  2. 2Is DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) Cheap On Its Expanded Perfect Game Partnership? - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  3. 3Documentsec.gov

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A YES resolution is triggered if Dick's Sporting Goods' comparable store sales in fiscal 2026 exceed the specific percentage outlined in the contract (e.g., "Above 5%"). Conversely, a NO resolution occurs if the comparable store sales are at or below that specified threshold. Trading for this market ends on March 11 at 4:00 PM EST, with the maximum payout date set for June 9, 2027. No special settlement conditions are detailed beyond the direct comparison of sales data to the contractual percentage.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 5% $0.73 $0.97 33%
Above 7% $0.18 $0.99 6%
Above 2% $0.99 $0.94 0%
Above 3% $0.99 $0.88 0%
Above 4% $0.98 $0.87 0%
Above 6% $0.94 $0.99 0%

Market Discussion

DICK'S Sporting Goods has announced full-year fiscal 2026 comparable store sales growth guidance of 2.5% to 4.0% for the DICK'S business and 1.5% to 3.0% for the Foot Locker business, following an increase to the lower end of these projections [1][2][3][4][5]. This outlook follows the DICK'S business reporting 6% comparable store sales growth in Q2 2026 [5][6]. Foot Locker stores are slated for inclusion in the company's quarterly comparable store calculation beginning in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, with market sentiment also considering potential integration risks and broader economic factors like inflation [2][6][7][8].

Sources (8)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsinvestors.dicks.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsprnewswire.com
  4. 4DICK'S (DKS) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5DKS Stock Quote, Chart & Score | TickerSparktickerspark.ai
  6. 6DKS Q2 2026 Earnings: EPS Slightly Misses but Stock Jumps 5.15% - Estimate Revision Countmarking.cxc.org
  7. 7Is DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) Cheap On Its Expanded Perfect Game Partnership? - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  8. 8DKS Looks 30.3% Undervalued on GF Value™gurufocus.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 67 Caution

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score40High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score67Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 5%—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
79Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 5%79
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 5d

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 5%100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
40High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

Move quality avg 79 across 1 legs

$100 order: 11.5c slippage (~35% of a 33c contract)

$1,000 order: 53.8c slippage (~163% of a 33c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

5 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 5%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality79Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
79 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 5d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 24, 2026

6. How do Wall Street analyst consensus estimates for DICK'S fiscal 2026 comparable sales align with the company's official guidance?

DICK'S Business 2026 Comparable Sales Guidance2.5% to 4.0% (as of August 10, 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Initial DICK'S Business 2026 Comparable Sales Guidance2.0% to 4.0% (early 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Foot Locker Business 2026 Comparable Sales Guidance1.5% to 3.0% (increased from 1.0% to 3.0%) [1][2][3][4]
DICK'S Sporting Goods updated its fiscal 2026 comparable sales guidance. The company has issued revised official guidance for its fiscal 2026 comparable sales growth. As of August 10, 2026, DICK'S anticipates comparable sales growth for its core DICK'S business to be between 2.5% and 4.0%, an increase from its initial guidance of 2.0% to 4.0% released earlier in 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Similarly, the guidance for its Foot Locker business segment's comparable sales has also been adjusted upwards, now projected to be 1.5% to 3.0%, compared to the initial forecast of 1.0% to 3.0% [1][2][3][4].
Wall Street analyst consensus targets for fiscal 2026 are not available. A direct numerical alignment with specific Wall Street analyst consensus comparable sales percentage targets for DICK'S fiscal 2026 is not possible because such specific figures are not present in the available research [5][6][7]. While these particular targets are less frequently cited than other financial metrics such as EPS or revenue, the broader market sentiment and analyst ratings, which largely consist of "Buy" recommendations, suggest confidence in the company's performance, as it has consistently exceeded overall expectations [5][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsinvestors.dicks.com
  2. 2DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsprnewswire.com
  3. 3Documentsec.gov
  4. 4DICK'S (DKS) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) - Trefistrefis.com
  6. 6DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) Stock Forecast & Price Targetsstockanalysis.com
  7. 7DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) Estimates & Forecasts — EPS, Revenue & Price Targets (2026) | VCP Scannervcpscanner.com

7. What key macroeconomic trends in the second half of 2026 could affect DICK'S ability to meet its sales targets?

DICK'S Q1 2026 Comp Growth6% [1][2][3][4]
DICK'S Full-Year Comp Sales Guidance2.5%–4.0% [1][2][3][4]
Key Macroeconomic Trends H2 2026Persistent sticky inflation and rising energy/fuel prices [5][6][7][8][9][10]
Persistent inflation and rising energy costs pose risks to discretionary retail. In the second half of 2026, persistent sticky inflation and rising energy and fuel prices are expected to affect DICK'S ability to meet sales targets [5][6][7][8][9][10]. These factors contribute to a K-shaped consumer environment where low- to middle-income households face heightened financial stress and are trading down, posing risks for companies in discretionary retail segments [5][6][7][8][9][10].
Softening retail sales and higher mortgage rates erode purchasing power. Real retail sales are currently showing signs of softening, further aggravated by increased mortgage rates that are impacting housing-related purchases [5][7][11]. This situation, combined with an erosion of purchasing power for many households, creates challenges [5][7][11]. While overall spending remains resilient, primarily driven by higher-income consumers, the widespread financial strain on lower and middle-income groups could significantly curtail discretionary expenditures [5][7][11].
Despite headwinds, DICK'S reported strong Q1 sales and raised guidance. Despite these macroeconomic headwinds, DICK'S Sporting Goods reported strong 6% comparable store sales growth in Q1 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Subsequently, the company raised its full-year comparable sales guidance for the DICK'S business to between 2.5% and 4.0% [1][2][3][4]. Company management acknowledged ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties but expressed confidence in their core strategies, anticipating operating margin expansion in the latter half of 2026 [1][2][3][4].
Sources (11)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsinvestors.dicks.com
  2. 2DICK'S (DKS) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  3. 3Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (DKS) 10-Q Quarterly Report June 2026last10k.com
  4. 4EarningsCall · DKS Q1 2026earningscall.biz
  5. 5US Retail Sales Projections and Retail Context | Coresight Researchcoresight.com
  6. 6The K-shaped consumer looks different this time | NRFnrf.com
  7. 7Retail sales better than appear at first blushkpmg.com
  8. 8Holiday 2026 US Retail Outlook | Coresight Researchcoresight.com
  9. 9Consumers & AI drive growth; trade gap widenskpmg.com
  10. 10PYMNTS | Retail Sales Shift to Essentials as Discretionary Spending Slowspymnts.com
  11. 11Raji Chakrabarti, Thu Pham, Beck Pierce, and Maxim Pinkovskiynewyorkfed.org

8. How does the projected fiscal 2026 comparable sales growth of the core DICK'S business compare to that of the newly acquired Foot Locker business?

DICK'S Core Comparable Sales Growth2.5% to 4.0% (Fiscal 2026) [1][2][3]
Foot Locker Comparable Sales Growth1.5% to 3.0% (Fiscal 2026) [1][2][3]
Foot Locker Official Calculation StartQ4 fiscal 2026 [1][4][5]
DICK'S core business projects higher comparable sales growth. DICK'S Sporting Goods anticipates its core DICK'S business will achieve comparable sales growth between 2.5% and 4.0% for fiscal 2026, surpassing its newly acquired Foot Locker business. The Foot Locker business, in contrast, projects growth in the range of 1.5% to 3.0% for the same period [1][2][3].
Foot Locker's fiscal 2026 outlook is presented pro forma. The comparable sales outlook for the Foot Locker business for fiscal 2026 is based on a pro forma calculation. This approach is necessary because the Foot Locker business will be formally integrated into the company's official quarterly comparable store calculation starting in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 [1][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsinvestors.dicks.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3DICK'S (DKS) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results – Company Announcement - FT.commarkets.ft.markitdigital.com
  5. 5E904f4dea6b2e5e950f301116d0b4d10.htmlstatic.newsfilter.io

9. How will the timing of Foot Locker's Q4 2026 integration into official comps affect the full-year calculation?

Foot Locker full-year comparable sales inclusionExcluded from official comparable store sales for fiscal 2026 (starting fiscal 2027) [1][2][3][4]
Foot Locker quarterly comparable sales inclusionIncluded in official comparable store sales starting Q4 of fiscal 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Kalshi prediction market resolution for FY2026Excludes Foot Locker banner for full fiscal year 2026 [5][6]
Foot Locker's Q4 integration will not impact fiscal 2026 full-year comps. Despite Foot Locker operations being included in DICK'S Sporting Goods' official quarterly comparable store sales calculation starting in Q4 of fiscal 2026, the Foot Locker business will not be incorporated into the full-year official comparable store sales figure for fiscal 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Consequently, the relevant prediction market for "Dick's Sporting Goods comparable store sales in fiscal 2026" will resolve based on an official comparable store sales growth figure that entirely excludes the Foot Locker banner for the full fiscal year 2026 [5][6].
Quarterly integration starts in Q4 2026, but full-year inclusion is later. The integration of Foot Locker operations, which include Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker, Champs Sports, WSS, and atmos, into the quarterly comparable store sales calculation will begin in Q4 of fiscal 2026 [1][2][3]. This timing is set after these operations complete their 14th full month under DICK'S ownership [1][2][3]. However, due to this late-year commencement, the Foot Locker business is scheduled to be fully included in DICK'S Sporting Goods' full-year comparable sales calculations starting in fiscal 2027 [1][2][4]. Throughout fiscal 2026, comparable sales for the "Foot Locker Business" will be reported by DICK'S Sporting Goods on a pro forma basis, separate from the official company-wide comparable store sales figure [1][7][3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsinvestors.dicks.com
  2. 2E904f4dea6b2e5e950f301116d0b4d10.htmlstatic.newsfilter.io
  3. 3DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsprnewswire.com
  4. 4DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results – Company Announcement - FT.commarkets.ft.markitdigital.com
  5. 5Dick's Sporting Goods comparable store sales in fiscal 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  6. 6DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's Result: 5%+ Wins | Lines.comlines.com
  7. 7Dick's Sporting Goods-DKS-Q4-earnings-report-record-sales-comps-growthwwd.com

10. What is the expected sales impact of the 'Fast Break' initiative on the Foot Locker business in the second half of fiscal 2026?

Fast Break Store Sales GrowthDouble-digit comparable sales growth [1][2][3]
Fast Break Expansion TargetApproximately 250 stores globally by back-to-school 2026 [1][2][3]
FY2026 Comparable Sales Guidance1.5% to 3.0% for the Foot Locker Business [1][2][3]
The 'Fast Break' initiative delivered strong double-digit comparable sales growth. This capital-light store remodel program for the Foot Locker Business has successfully generated double-digit comparable sales growth in its participating stores. This program was a primary factor in the Foot Locker Business achieving positive comparable sales and profitability during Q1 2026 [1][2][3].
Program expansion leads to increased Foot Locker sales guidance. Following this early success, the initiative is slated for expansion to approximately 250 Foot Locker stores globally by the back-to-school season of 2026, with further expansion scheduled before the holidays. The positive outcomes in Q1 prompted an increase in the lower end of the full-year fiscal 2026 comparable sales guidance for the Foot Locker Business, adjusting it to a range of 1.5% to 3.0% [1][2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsinvestors.dicks.com
  2. 2Dick's Sporting Goods brings sales growth back to Foot Locker in Q1digitalcommerce360.com
  3. 3As Foot Locker's 'Fast Break' Strategy Pays Off, What's the Next Play?retailwire.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

DICK'S Sporting Goods expects fiscal 2026 full-year comparable store sales growth of 2.5% to 4.0% for the DICK'S business and 1.5% to 3.0% for the Foot Locker business on a pro forma basis [1][2][3][4]. Consolidated financial guidance for 2026 includes net sales of $22.1 billion to $22.4 billion, non-GAAP operating income of $1.71 billion to $1.83 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of $13.50 to $14.50 [1][3][5]. Bullish catalysts encompass the successful execution of Foot Locker's 'Fast Break' store remodel program, which has driven double-digit comparable store sales, and the potential impact of the FIFA World Cup on equipment and apparel sales [3][6][7].
Key bearish factors and headwinds for 2026 involve margin pressure in the first half due to the Foot Locker integration, increased pre-opening costs for House of Sport locations, and significant marketing investments tied to the World Cup [3][7]. Macroeconomic conditions such as inflation, interest rates, disposable income, and consumer debt represent risk factors that could reduce traffic, lower comparable sales, and decrease average transaction values [8]. The company is expected to report its Q2 2026 financial results around August 25, 2026; this date is critical for monitoring Foot Locker's profitability and segment-level margin improvement [7]. Foot Locker will be included in the quarterly comparable store calculation beginning in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 [2].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 09, 2027
  • Closes: June 09, 2027
Sources (8)
  1. 1DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports First Quarter Resultsinvestors.dicks.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3DICK'S (DKS) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (DKS) 10-Q Quarterly Report June 2026last10k.com
  5. 5DICK'S Sporting Goods posts Q1 2026 results | DKS 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  6. 6Dick’s Sporting Stock Poised for Rally on Growth and World Cup Catalyst | Investing.cominvesting.com
  7. 7DICK’S Sporting Goods Stock Falls After Q1 2026 Earnings: Was the Selloff Justified? | TIKR.comtikr.com
  8. 8dks-20260131 - SEC.govsec.gov