Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect SpaceX to have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This contract opened on July 23, 2026, pricing a 14.2% probability that the SpaceX IPO would be the largest by market capitalization for the year. Since its inception, the price has moved in a steady downward trend. It fell to 10.1% within the first week and continued its decline to the current price of 8.0% as of August 6. No significant price spikes or reversals have occurred; the trajectory has been consistently negative.
The context states the SpaceX IPO was completed on June 12, 2026, well before this market opened. The reported initial valuation was approximately $1.77 trillion. The subsequent decay in price from 14.2% to 8.0% suggests a re-rating of the probability that another, larger IPO could occur before the end of 2026. However, the most critical feature of this market is its complete lack of activity. Total traded volume is zero. This indicates the price movement is not the result of active trading or new information being priced in by participants. The price path likely reflects an automated market maker's algorithmic decay or an initial pricing setup that has not been validated by any transactions.
Given the zero-volume environment, it is not possible to establish meaningful support or resistance levels. The price action does not reflect market conviction or sentiment in any reliable way. It is an illiquid, untraded contract whose price chart is a theoretical construct rather than a reflection of a consensus view.
- SpaceX achieved the largest IPO in history, with a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion.
- OpenAI's IPO is likely delayed until 2027 due to ongoing market uncertainty.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 8.1% | 1.9% | Anthropic's emerging AI research and focus on safe AI attract investor interest, despite commercialization and regulatory risks. |
| Kraken | 0.1% | 0.0% | Kraken's valuation is heavily tied to the volatile crypto market and increasing regulatory uncertainty. |
| Revolut | 0.1% | 0.0% | Revolut's expanding global financial services and customer base offer IPO potential, despite regulatory hurdles. |
| Databricks | 0.1% | 0.0% | Databricks' leadership in data and AI infrastructure drives high-value IPO potential, despite big tech competition. |
| SpaceX | 91.0% | 98.1% | SpaceX's space dominance and Starlink growth offer strong IPO potential, despite capital intensity concerns. |
Current Context
SpaceX completed the largest initial public offering in history on June 12, 2026. The company raised approximately $85.7 billion [1][2][3]. Shares were priced at $135, resulting in an initial valuation of about $1.77 trillion [1][4][5]. By the close of its first trading day, SpaceX's valuation exceeded $2 trillion [1][4][5]. Retail investors showed significant interest in the IPO [6].
OpenAI has confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC, but its IPO timeline remains unset. As of August 2026, there is no official schedule for an OpenAI IPO [9][10][11][12]. Reports suggest a delay until at least 2027 [9][10][11][12]. Other potential upcoming IPOs, such as Anthropic, are also subjects of market discussion [13][14].
Sources (14)
- 1SpaceX IPO: The largest in historycnbc.com
- 2SpaceX officially prices shares at $135 in the largest IPO ever | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
- 3SpaceX - Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Announces Closing of Initial Public Offering, Including Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Sharesir.spacex.com
- 4What to Know About SpaceX’s Record-Breaking IPO - Bloombergbloomberg.com
- 5From 10% chance of success to $2 trillion: SpaceX's historic IPOcnbc.com
- 6Welcome to the Chip Crash (FvF Ep. 198)youtube.com
- 7SpaceX Stock Has Plunged: Buy it Now?youtube.com
- 8SpaceX (SPCX): Is It Really Worth $2 Trillion Dollars?youtube.com
- 9OpenAI Leans Toward Holding Up I.P.O. Until Next Yearnytimes.com
- 10Sources: OpenAI hasn't held pre-IPO meetings or set timeline yetcnbc.com
- 11OpenAI IPO timeline delayed, Kalshi predictionscnbc.com
- 12OpenAI files confidential SEC paperwork for Wall Street debut | AP Newsapnews.com
- 13Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend: July 24th 2026 | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com
- 14Robinhood Chain Growth | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, and achieves the highest market capitalization on its first trading day. Market capitalization is calculated as total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price, converted to U.S. dollars using Federal Reserve rates if needed. A "No" resolution occurs if a company is unable to complete an IPO, for instance due to acquisition; ties in market capitalization are broken by alphabetical order, with resolution based on the primary exchange's official listing page.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | $0.92 | $0.09 | 91% |
| Anthropic | $0.08 | $0.92 | 8% |
| OpenAI | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| ByteDance | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Databricks | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Discord | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Kraken | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Perplexity AI | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Revolut | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| SHEIN | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Stripe | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Waymo | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Other | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Placeholder A | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
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| Placeholder AH | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Placeholder AI | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
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| Placeholder L | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
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| Placeholder T | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
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| Placeholder V | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Placeholder W | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Placeholder X | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Placeholder Y | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Placeholder Z | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| xAI | $0.50 | $0.99 | — |
Market Discussion
Traders on Polymarket overwhelmingly predict SpaceX will have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, holding 92% implied odds. This strong consensus is driven by expectations of a record June 2026 debut raising $75 billion at a $1.77–2.1 trillion valuation, solidified by its merger with xAI, Starlink's revenue momentum, and robust institutional demand. Competing candidates like Anthropic and OpenAI are deemed improbable to surpass SpaceX due to their comparatively lower private valuations, regulatory hurdles, and smaller anticipated capital raises.
4. Trust Index
Corporate action: boards, bankers, and counsel hold the answer before the announcement
Integrity risk· Information exposure
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score58Caution
Trade quality20% of score63Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score59Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 2 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
5. How do the capital expenditure needs and funding strategies of SpaceX and OpenAI influence their respective timelines for a 2026 IPO?
| SpaceX IPO Amount Raised | $75 billion [1][2] |
|---|---|
| SpaceX Initial Valuation | Over $2 trillion [1][2] |
| OpenAI Projected Infrastructure Spending | $750 billion through 2030 [3][4][5] |
SpaceX's 2026 IPO successfully funded significant capital expenditures, notably for AI. The company completed its initial public offering on June 12, 2026, raising $75 billion and achieving an initial valuation exceeding $2 trillion, which positioned it as the largest IPO on record [1][2]. This public offering was primarily driven by the necessity to finance substantial capital expenditures, particularly within its AI division, which accounted for $7.7 billion of its $10.1 billion Q1 2026 capital expenditure, in addition to ongoing investments in Starship and Starlink projects [6][1][7].
OpenAI faces substantial capital needs, filing for IPO without a firm date. The company submitted a confidential IPO filing in June 2026, despite extreme capital expenditure requirements projected through 2030, but has not yet committed to a specific public listing date [8][9][10][2]. OpenAI's funding strategy requires a sophisticated approach, blending massive private funding rounds, such as the $122 billion secured in March 2026, with long-term infrastructure commitments [3][4][5]. The company is navigating projected infrastructure spending of $750 billion through 2030 to support its growth [3][4][5].
Sources (10)
- 1SpaceX raises $75 billion in record-setting IPO ahead of Nasdaq debutcnbc.com
- 2SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs in 2026: What Pre-IPO Investors Need to Know — NonPublicnonpublic.com
- 3OpenAI IPO 2026: S-1, $800B Valuation & Governanceuseluminix.com
- 4OpenAI's AI spending spree has ballooned to $750B | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
- 5OpenAI IPO: Everything You Need to Know | Investing.cominvesting.com
- 6Space Exploration Technologies - S-1sec.gov
- 7SpaceX to raise at least $75 billion in IPO - SpaceNewsspacenews.com
- 8OpenAI files confidential SEC paperwork for Wall Street debut | AP Newsapnews.com
- 9OpenAI files for IPO, the latest in a stream of possible AI mega-sales | CNN Businesscnn.com
- 10OpenAI confidentially files for IPO, prepping Wall Street...cnbc.com
6. What are the key US and Chinese regulatory approvals that could act as catalysts or roadblocks for a ByteDance or SHEIN IPO in 2026?
| Chinese IPO Approval | Secured from CSRC in July 2026 for Hong Kong IPO [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| US Regulatory Roadblocks | FTC investigations, 'de minimis' import duty exemption removal, and lawmaker scrutiny [4][5][6] |
| Previous IPO Plans | Abandoned New York and London plans due to regulatory hurdles [1][2][3] |
Shein secured Chinese regulatory approval for its Hong Kong IPO. In July 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) granted its approval for Shein's initial public offering (IPO) in Hong Kong [1][2]. This significant development followed the company's decision to abandon earlier plans for listings in New York and London, a strategic shift prompted by regulatory hurdles encountered in those regions [1][2][3].
Shein faces significant U.S. regulatory scrutiny and hurdles. In the United States, the company is contending with considerable regulatory challenges, including ongoing investigations by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) [4]. The potential removal of the 'de minimis' import duty exemption, which currently benefits imports of low-value goods, also poses a significant roadblock [4][5]. Furthermore, U.S. lawmakers are intensely scrutinizing Shein's supply chain labor practices and its operational ties to China [6]. A U.S. lawmaker has urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to block a Shein IPO unless all risks associated with its operations in China are fully disclosed [6]. No key U.S. regulatory approvals that could act as catalysts for a Shein IPO in 2026 have been identified.
Sources (6)
- 1Shein passes hearing for Hong Kong listing as valuation halves to below US$50b, sources say | South China Morning Postscmp.com
- 2Shein receives approval for Hong Kong IPO from Chinese regulators | South China Morning Postscmp.com
- 3Exclusive: Shein working towards Hong Kong listing after London IPO stalls, say sourcesreuters.com
- 4Shein’s three-year IPO delay cost it the ‘golden time’ to go publiccnbc.com
- 5Shein flags tariff hits after posting loss ahead of Hong Kong IPOcnbc.com
- 6Exclusive: Rubio urges SEC to block Shein IPO unless China operating risk disclosed | Reutersreuters.com
7. What do late 2025 secondary market trading values imply for the potential IPO valuations of Stripe and Databricks in 2026?
| Stripe Late 2025 Valuation | $105 billion to $129 billion [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Databricks Series L Valuation (Dec 2025) | $134 billion [6][7][8][9][10] |
| Databricks Revenue Run-Rate | Over $4.8 billion annually [7][8] |
Secondary market trading values in late 2025 suggest significant potential IPO valuations for Stripe and Databricks in 2026. Stripe's potential 2026 IPO valuation is estimated between $105 billion and $129 billion, while Databricks could reach approximately $134 billion. These projections reflect substantial growth and strong valuation marks achieved by both companies by the end of 2025.
Stripe's valuation showed strong momentum, exceeding its 2021 peak in late 2025. Internal valuation marks and secondary market indicators ranged from approximately $105 billion to $129 billion [1][2][3][4][5]. As of September 23, 2025, its valuation was reported above its 2021 high, reaching $106.7 billion [2]. This upward trajectory, supported by a 158% increase from its last Series I round and 28% revenue growth, implies its potential 2026 IPO valuation could be within or even surpass this range [3].
Databricks closed 2025 with notable growth, securing a $4 billion Series L round. In December 2025, Databricks achieved a valuation of $134 billion [6][7][8][9][10]. This represented a 34% increase from its August 2025 valuation of $100 billion [6][7][8][9][10]. The company's artificial intelligence business is expanding, surpassing a $4.8 billion revenue run-rate with 55% year-over-year growth [7][8]. This strong late 2025 valuation indicates a potential 2026 IPO valuation at or above $134 billion, positioning Databricks among anticipated high-profile tech IPOs [11].
Sources (11)
- 1Stripe Company Valuation in 2025: The Latest $106.7B Mark, Fresh Secondary Signals, and What December’s AI + Stablecoin Push Could Mean (Updated Dec. 14, 2025)ts2.tech
- 2Stripe’s Valuation Rises Above Its 2021 Peak to $106.7 Billion - Bloombergbloomberg.com
- 3Stripe Valuation Up 158% From Last Round Series I as...pminsights.com
- 4Buy and Sell Stripe Stock - 2025joinprospect.com
- 5https://practicalvc.com/companies/stripepracticalvc.com
- 6Databricks Pre-IPO Shares & Secondary Pricing | Limen Marketslimenmarkets.com
- 7Databricks raises $4B at $134B valuation as its AI business heats up | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
- 8Databricks Grows >55% YoY, Surpasses $4.8B Revenue Run-Rate, and is Raising >$4B Series L at $134B Valuation - Databricksdatabricks.com
- 9Databricks raises capital at $134 billion valuationcnbc.com
- 10Databricks hits $134B valuation with $4B raise, eyes AI research push — TFNtechfundingnews.com
- 11Perps, Buybacks, Bond Funds, and Women's Basketball | Barron's Streetwiseyoutube.com
8. How might the performance of OpenAI's next major model release in 2025 impact the timing and potential valuation of its 2026 IPO?
| Anticipated IPO Year | 2027 (leaning toward) [1] |
|---|---|
| Targeted Valuation | $1 trillion [1] |
| Predicted Largest IPO 2026 | SpaceX [2] |
OpenAI's IPO is likely delayed to 2027 due to market uncertainty. As of August 2026, OpenAI is leaning towards postponing its public offering until 2027, despite having filed confidential S-1 paperwork in June 2026 [1]. This decision stems from market uncertainty and concerns regarding retail investor enthusiasm [1]. Consequently, prediction markets no longer consider OpenAI a primary contender for the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, instead identifying SpaceX as the overwhelming favorite for that year [2]. The expected delay makes it improbable that OpenAI will achieve the largest IPO by market cap in 2026 [1].
Achieving a $1 trillion IPO valuation hinges on strong performance. CEO Sam Altman has set a target valuation of $1 trillion for OpenAI's IPO [1]. Justifying this ambitious valuation to public investors is viewed as critical, with the company's performance, particularly its future major model releases, playing a pivotal role [1]. This emphasis on performance is especially pertinent given existing concerns about OpenAI's high capital burn and overall profitability [1].
9. What evidence from SpaceX's Starlink and Starship programs in 2025 supports analyst projections of a trillion-dollar-plus valuation for a potential 2026 IPO?
| Starlink 2025 Revenue | $11.387 billion (2025) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Starlink 2025 Operating Income | $4.423 billion (2025) [1][2][3] |
| Projected IPO Valuation | Approximately $1.77 trillion [4][5][6] |
Starlink's financial performance and future services bolster SpaceX's valuation. In 2025, Starlink's connectivity segment generated $11.387 billion in revenue, reflecting 49.8% year-over-year growth, and achieved an operating income of $4.423 billion, making it SpaceX's only profitable segment [1][2][3]. Despite this, the company recorded a $4.9 billion net loss for the year [7][8][9]. Analyst projections for a trillion-dollar-plus valuation are largely predicated on anticipated future growth from high-margin Direct-to-Cell services [7][8][9].
Starship's reusability progress and orbital AI underpin high valuations. Throughout 2025, the Starship program made significant advancements through ten test flights, culminating in a successful soft water landing in the Indian Ocean during its August 26 flight [10][11][12]. This achievement was critical for proving reusability, which is essential for future scaling and orbital AI infrastructure [10][11][12]. Analysts consider Starship's full reusability and the anticipated growth from orbital AI computing as key drivers for a trillion-dollar-plus valuation [7][8][9]. SpaceX is scheduled to debut on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, with an initial public offering price of $135 per share, resulting in a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion [4][5][6].
Sources (12)
- 1What Is Starlink’s Financial Performance? | New Space Economynewspaceeconomy.ca
- 2Starlink — Subscribers, Revenue, Unit Economics & Margin | SpaceXChartspacexchart.com
- 3Starlink Statistics 2026: Subscribers, Revenue, Speed & Constellation Data - Axis Intelligenceaxis-intelligence.com
- 4SpaceX targets fixed $135 IPO price for roadshow, source sayscnbc.com
- 5SpaceX to raise at least $75 billion in IPO - SpaceNewsspacenews.com
- 6SpaceX says it’s worth $1.75tn as it targets largest stock market debutbbc.com
- 7Why We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 8SpaceX: What Investors Need to Know About Its Enormous...morningstar.com
- 9The Space Review: Starships are meant to eventually flythespacereview.com
- 10starlinkProgressReport_2025.pdfstarlink.com
- 11Starship business valued at $2.5tn by 2030 – SatNewssatnews.com
- 12Starship completes tenth test flight, breaking string of failures - SpaceNewsspacenews.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
SpaceX executed the largest IPO in history on June 12, 2026, raising approximately $85.7 billion and achieving a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion [1][2][3][4][5]. However, its shares have experienced considerable volatility since the IPO, trading significantly below their post-IPO record highs and initial target price as of August 6, 2026 [6][7]. The stock is down about 24% since its IPO [8].
The insider share lockup expiration for SpaceX occurred on August 6, 2026 [6]. Concurrently, OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC on June 8, 2026 [9][10]. The company now leans toward delaying its IPO until 2027, though prediction markets estimate significant probabilities of an announcement by March 2027 [11][12].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (12)
- 1SpaceX IPO: The largest in historycnbc.com
- 2From 10% chance of success to $2 trillion: SpaceX's historic IPOcnbc.com
- 3SpaceX Shares Close Up 19% After Largest IPO Of All Timenews.crunchbase.com
- 4SpaceX - Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Announces Closing of Initial Public Offering, Including Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Sharesir.spacex.com
- 5SpaceX is public: Everything you need to know post-IPO | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
- 6SpaceX's post-IPO plunge sets tense backdrop for first earnings reportcnbc.com
- 7Wall Street is about to get SpaceX’s first-ever earnings report | CNN Businesscnn.com
- 8SpaceX Stock Has Plunged: Buy it Now?youtube.com
- 9Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC | OpenAIopenai.com
- 10OpenAI files confidential SEC paperwork for Wall Street debut | AP Newsapnews.com
- 11OpenAI Leans Toward Holding Up I.P.O. Until Next Yearnytimes.com
- 12OpenAI IPO timeline delayed, Kalshi predictionscnbc.com
