Short Answer

The Aluminum Midwest premium for November 2026 is expected to average 80¢/lb or above, driven by recent spot prices (SMM at 105¢/lb on October 9, 2026), analyst commentary projecting 100-110¢/lb, structural import dependence, and continued tariff enforcement; the market prices this outcome at 98.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's most significant move, a 58.0 percentage point spike on October 3, does not coincide with any specific reported catalyst. Subsequent volatility was driven by external factors. The market probability dropped 12.0 points on October 11 after news indicated the U.S. would lower tariffs on certain aluminum exports from Canada. Two days later, a 21.0 point spike reversed that move. This rise was attributed to a broad risk-off sentiment in metals, reportedly stemming from investor anxiety that overheated AI-infrastructure spending would become more difficult to finance.

Other rallies early in the month, including a 9.0 point rise on October 2 and a 12.0 point rise on October 5, also lack specific reported drivers. The market's recent bearish turn is evident in the implied median price for the Midwest premium, which fell from 105.1¢/lb on October 14 to 89.8¢/lb on October 15. This occurred on approximately 7,700 traded contracts.

Since last update (~24h): The market for '70¢ or above' surged +81.0pp, flipping the model edge by -89.0pp to -1.2%.
Model probability for '90¢ or above' jumped +78.0pp, widening edge as market fell -3.0pp.
Market probability for '95¢ or above' surged +80.0pp, compressing the edge, tracking a +78.0pp model rise.
Model increased '100¢ or above' by +13.9pp, widening the edge against market's +7.0pp rise.
Aluminum Midwest Premium is likely 80¢ or above due to continued Section 232 duties.
Canadian aluminum's landed cost advantage supports a premium of at least 85¢.
Spot prices and analyst forecasts suggest the premium may exceed 90¢.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
105¢ or above	14.0%	16.4%	The SMM spot premium was 105¢/lb on October 9, 2026, showing near-term stability.
90¢ or above	6.0%	90.0%	Structural import dependence and continued tariff enforcement support a higher Aluminum Midwest Premium.
100¢ or above	9.0%	16.4%	SMM assessed 105¢/lb on October 9, 2026, and analysts forecast 100-110¢/lb.
85¢ or above	96.0%	93.7%	Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
95¢ or above	90.0%	90.0%	SMM spot prices were 105¢/lb on October 9, 2026, with analysts projecting 100-110¢/lb.

Current Context

Prediction market shows significant shifts for November 2026 aluminum premium. As of October 15, 2026, the market for the November 2026 Aluminum Midwest Premium average, which settles November 30, 2026, and is based on CME Group's Aluminum Midwest Premium (AUP) November contract, reported an implied median of 89.8¢/lb ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This figure is down from 105.1¢/lb on October 14, with approximately 7.7K contracts traded ^[1]^[2]^[3]. The prediction market distribution appears wide and inconsistent across different data snapshots; market aggregators showed probabilities from 14% for 105¢/lb or above to 47% for 110¢/lb, alongside roughly 50–52% probabilities for 75–90¢/lb thresholds ^[1]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]. These market quotes are time-sensitive and do not represent a stable forecast ^[1]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]. The relevant benchmark is a physical US Midwest aluminum premium, distinct from the outright LME aluminum price; the LME lists the duty-paid US Midwest Platts premium, and the associated contract settles on the monthly average of Platts' P1020A duty-paid US Midwest premium ^[8]^[9]. Key dates include October 15, 2026, as the current information date, the start of LME Week and the 2027 contract round on October 19, 2026, the market closing on November 30, 2026, and expected settlement around December 1, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3].

Fundamentals are mixed, with both structural support and downside risks. Entry into November shows structurally supportive yet mixed fundamentals ^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13]. SMM reported the US Midwest DDP premium at 105¢/lb on October 9, noting it was broadly steady near term ^[10]. September reporting positioned the premium around $1.09/lb ($2,403/t), which is below the June record of $1.19/lb ^[11]. Alcoa CFO Molly Beerman stated that the US requires approximately 4 million tons of imports annually against Canada's roughly 3 million-ton capacity, and she does not anticipate the premium returning to pre-tariff levels solely from Canada-only relief ^[13]. A key downside catalyst involves broader tariff reductions or waivers extending beyond Canadian suppliers, which could increase import volumes and reduce the Midwest premium ^[10]^[12]^[13]. CRU and Wells Fargo commentary suggests that Canada-only tariff relief would have a muted effect due to the persistent US supply deficit ^[12]^[13]. Conversely, potential upside or stabilization risks include constrained Middle East supply, robust North American demand, limited import availability, and Alcoa's order book being almost entirely sold out for the remainder of 2026 ^[10]^[11]^[13]^[14]. Weak downstream demand and the easing observed from the June peak argue against a renewed record high ^[10]^[11]^[13]^[14].

The November 2026 premium implies a central estimate near 90¢/lb. The market-implied central estimate for November 2026 is approximately 90¢/lb, with a plausible working range between 85¢/lb and 105¢/lb ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[10]^[12]^[13]^[8]. A move below 80¢/lb would likely necessitate significant additional import supply or widespread tariff relief ^[10]^[12]^[13]. Conversely, a return toward 110¢/lb would likely require renewed supply disruption or increased physical market tightness ^[10]^[11]^[13]^[14]. This outlined range serves as an analytical projection, not an official forecast ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[10]^[12]^[13]^[8].

Sources (14)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: 110¢ or above

📉 October 15, 2026: 88.0pp drop

Price decreased from 91.0% to 3.0%

What happened: On October 15, 2026, the primary driver for the 88 percentage point drop in the aluminum prediction market was a broad macro-economic selloff reported by traditional news outlets. Reuters reported that LME aluminum declined 0.9% amid wider equity-market selling and concerns about further interest rate hikes ^[1]. Other market briefs cited a stronger dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and an AI-chip selloff contributing to the decline ^[2]^[3]. No social media activity was identified as influencing this specific price movement, rendering it irrelevant based on the available information.

Outcome: 100¢ or above

📉 October 14, 2026: 81.0pp drop

Price decreased from 90.0% to 9.0%

What happened: The specified 81.0 percentage point drop for the "100¢ or above" outcome on October 14, 2026, is not supported by the provided data; this outcome instead registered a +7 percentage point change, while an 81.0 percentage point gain was associated with the "70¢ or above" outcome ^[4]. However, the market's implied median for November 2026 did drop significantly on October 14, from 105.1¢ to 89.8¢ ^[5]^[6]. This broader market downturn appears primarily driven by traditional news of an aluminum selloff on October 14, linked to emerging oversupply, a stronger U.S. dollar, and renewed Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations after hotter U.S. inflation ^[7]^[8]^[9]. Additionally, news reported Japan's Q4 2026 aluminum premium decreasing by 35% quarter-over-quarter, signaling softer Asian demand ^[10]^[11]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant, as no relevant posts or narratives were found in the provided sources.

Outcome: 90¢ or above

📉 October 13, 2026: 81.0pp drop

Price decreased from 90.0% to 9.0%

What happened: The primary driver of downward pressure on the aluminum Midwest premium market on October 13, 2026, was a broad metals risk-off movement. This sentiment stemmed from investor anxiety that overheated AI-infrastructure spending would be harder to finance, causing aluminum, copper, and zinc prices to decline ^[12]^[13]. No social media activity, such as posts from key figures or viral narratives, was identified as a driver for the October 13 movement ^[4]^[14]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this price action.

Outcome: 80¢ or above

📉 October 11, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Price decreased from 90.0% to 78.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 12.0 percentage point drop was news indicating the U.S. would lower tariffs on certain Canadian aluminum exports ^[15]. Reports stated that October and November aluminum contracts fell more than 12% following this development, as industry executives anticipated significant changes to metal flows and the Midwest premium ^[15]^[16]. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives appeared to lead, coincide with, or lag this price movement. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this price drop.

Outcome: 85¢ or above

📉 October 06, 2026: 86.0pp drop

Price decreased from 86.0% to 0.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 86.0 percentage point drop on October 6, 2026, was market speculation, reported on that day, that the 50% Canadian aluminum tariff could be halved ^[17]. This expectation of tariff reduction would likely ease the U.S. Midwest premium, making the "85¢ or above" outcome less probable ^[17]. The only identified social media activity, a LinkedIn post dated October 7, occurred after the price movement and reflected ongoing uncertainty rather than initiating the sharp decline ^[18]. Therefore, social media was largely irrelevant to this specific price drop, with traditional market speculation serving as the primary driver.

Sources (18)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the Aluminum Midwest premium average for November 2026 is 110¢ or above, and NO if it is below 110¢. The resolution is based on this average premium for the entire month, with the maximum payout date set for November 30, 2026.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
80¢ or above	$1.00	$0.97	98%
85¢ or above	$0.96	$1.00	96%
70¢ or above	$1.00	$0.97	92%
75¢ or above	$1.00	$1.00	90%
95¢ or above	$1.00	$1.00	90%
105¢ or above	$1.00	$0.97	14%
100¢ or above	$0.89	$1.00	9%
90¢ or above	$1.00	$0.97	6%
110¢ or above	$0.91	$0.97	3%

Market Discussion

The market for the November 2026 Aluminum Midwest Premium average implied a central estimate around 89.8¢/lb as of October 15, 2026, a decline from 105.1¢ on October 14 ^[1]^[2]. This market indicates a relatively low probability for premiums at or above 105¢/lb (14%) or 110¢/lb (3%) ^[1]^[3], contrasting with earlier 2026 reports of the premium exceeding $1/lb in January amid tight supply and tariff uncertainty, and nominal quotes up to $1.106/lb in March ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7].

Sources (7)

5. Trust Index

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score77Good

Market integrity is low (64), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score7Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score63Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. What potential changes to US aluminum import tariffs, particularly for European or Middle Eastern suppliers, could materialize before the November 2026 settlement?

US Aluminum Import Policy	Tighter Section 232 treatment, effective through December 31, 2027 (June 2026 proclamation) ^[1]^[2]^[3]
EU Aluminum Tariff Floor	15% combined floor for European Union products (June 2026 proclamation) ^[1]
Middle East Tariff Change	No pending October-November 2026 tariff change identified ^[4]^[5]^[6]

US aluminum import policy tightens Section 232 duties through 2027. As of October 15, 2026, the operative U.S. policy for aluminum imports involves more stringent Section 232 treatment, applying duties to the full customs value and establishing this regime through December 31, 2027 ^[1]^[2]^[3]. For European Union products, a June 2026 proclamation specifies a 15% combined floor, where Section 232 duties will fill any gap if the Column 1 duty falls below this threshold ^[1]. Prior to the November 2026 settlement, Europe-specific adjustments are more likely to involve negotiated tariff-rate quotas or ring-fencing, rather than broad automatic exemptions, consistent with earlier discussions on secure supply chains and critical-minerals work between the U.S. and EU ^[7]^[8]^[9].

No specific tariff changes are documented for Middle Eastern aluminum suppliers. For Middle Eastern aluminum suppliers such as Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia, no sources indicate a pending, dated October-November 2026 tariff change ^[4]^[5]^[6]. USTR materials primarily show historical WTO litigation involving these countries and the United States ^[4]^[5]^[6]. Therefore, through the November 30, 2026 settlement, the baseline scenario suggests no clearly documented new Middle East-specific tariff actions ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[7]^[9]. Any tariff tightening or reduced access for European or Middle Eastern supply could potentially support the U.S. Midwest premium by limiting import competition; conversely, a quota or exemption for Europe that maintains import flows would be bearish or limit upside ^[10]. The provided research does not quantify the impact on the premium or confirm these potential outcomes ^[10].

Sources (10)

7. How do Q4 2026 forecasts for the Aluminum Midwest Premium from leading commodity analysts like CRU, Wells Fargo, and SMM align with the current market-implied range?

Analyst/Spot Assessment Range	100-110¢/lb, with downside risk toward 90s ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Prediction Market Median	Approximately 90¢/lb ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Latest SMM Spot Premium	105¢/lb (October 9, 2026) ^[3]

Leading commodity analysts and spot assessments forecast a stable Midwest Premium. Analyst commentary, including insights from CRU and Wells Fargo, aligns with the latest Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) spot assessment, indicating an approximate range of 100–110¢/lb for the Aluminum Midwest Premium in November 2026, with some potential downside risk towards the 90s ^[1]^[2]^[3]. SMM's observation on October 9, 2026, specifically placed the US Midwest DDP premium at 105¢/lb, noting its near-term stability in the absence of major fundamental changes ^[3]. Analysts further suggest that any Canada-only tariff reduction would have a muted effect, preventing a return to pre-tariff levels and supporting a stable-to-slightly-lower premium regime rather than a significant collapse ^[4]^[5].

Prediction markets lean bearishly but assign significant odds to higher values. As of October 15, 2026, the prediction market, encompassing data from Kalshi and a 4Search snapshot, shows a more conservative median of approximately 90¢/lb for November 2026, with one report specifying 89.8¢ ^[1]^[6]. However, despite this lower median forecast, the market's probability ladder still assigns meaningful odds to higher values, indicating approximately a 38% probability of the premium reaching at least 100–105¢ ^[2]. This suggests that while the prediction market adopts a more bearish outlook compared to analyst views and current spot data, it still acknowledges a significant possibility of the premium remaining at elevated levels ^[1]^[2]^[3].

Sources (6)

8. How do the landed costs and available volumes of aluminum from Canadian producers like Rio Tinto and Alcoa compare to those from Middle Eastern suppliers for Q4 2026 US delivery?

Canadian Cost Advantage	Expected for US delivery compared to Middle Eastern suppliers ^[1]
Middle East Disruption	Estimated 2.4-million-tonne disruption impacting spot availability ^[2]
Global Aluminum Deficit (2026 Outlook)	1.9 million tonnes ^[2]

Canadian aluminum likely offers a landed-cost advantage for Q4 2026 US delivery. Canadian-origin aluminum from producers such as Rio Tinto and Alcoa is anticipated to have a landed-cost advantage for Q4 2026 U.S. delivery when compared to material from Middle Eastern suppliers ^[1]. This benefit arises from Canada's geographical proximity, which lessens exposure to ocean freight, insurance, and the risk of Middle East disruptions that impact Persian Gulf imports ^[2]^[1]. However, a precise dollar-per-ton cost difference cannot be established, as current sources do not provide executable Q4 2026 supplier quotations ^[1].

Quantifying Canadian Q4 2026 aluminum volumes remains challenging ^[2]. Public evidence is insufficient to specify Canadian producer allocations for Q4 2026, with Rio Tinto's AP60 expansion and Alcoa's company-wide production guidance not indicative of deliverable spot volumes ^[2]. Conversely, Middle Eastern spot availability may be less dependable, partly due to an estimated 2.4-million-tonne disruption. The overall market outlook for 2026 suggests a global primary-aluminum deficit of 1.9 million tonnes, which implies structurally high U.S. delivered aluminum costs for Q4 2026 ^[2].

Sources (2)

9. What is the precise calculation methodology and data release schedule for the CME Group's Aluminum Midwest Premium (AUP) November 2026 contract settlement?

Settlement Calculation	Average of all available S&P Global Platts Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium price assessments published during November 2026 ^[1]^[2]
Contract Quoting	U.S. dollars per pound ^[1]^[2]
Settlement Data Availability	Daily, on CME websites around midnight Central Time ^[3]^[4]^[5]

The November 2026 Aluminum Midwest Premium contract is financially settled. Its final settlement value is precisely calculated as the average of all available S&P Global Platts Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium price assessments published throughout the November 2026 calendar month ^[1]^[2]. This contract is quoted in U.S. dollars per pound, with its underlying Platts assessment indicating a daily premium or discount over cash aluminum for Midwest delivery. The assessment methodology incorporates reported physical business from a representative sample of market participants, including producers, traders, and end users ^[1]^[2]. Trading for the November 2026 contract concludes on the last business day of November 2026 ^[1]^[2].

Settlement data for AUP contracts is published daily. Detailed settlement information is made accessible on CME Group websites typically around midnight Central Time ^[3]^[4]^[5]. Settlements are also disseminated closer to their calculation time via the organization's real-time market-data channels. The standard settlement-input window specifically for Aluminum is between 16:25 and 16:30 London time ^[5]. Daily settlement files differentiate between preliminary and final reports, with initial settlement values calculated at the close of the trading day and potential updates to these reports occurring during the evening ^[3]^[4].

Sources (5)

10. What do Q3 2026 earnings reports from major aluminum consumers like Ford, General Motors, and Ball Corporation indicate about their inventory levels and expected Q4 demand?

Ford Q3 Earnings Release	October 28, 2026 ^[1]
Ball Corp Q3 Earnings Release	November 3, 2026 ^[2]
GM Q3 Quarter-End Inventory	approximately 568,000 vehicles ^[3]

Comprehensive Q3 2026 earnings reports are not yet fully available. As of October 15, 2026, official Q3 2026 earnings reports from major aluminum consumers Ford and Ball Corporation had not yet been released, making a complete cross-company comparison of inventory levels and Q4 demand difficult ^[1]^[2]. Ford's Q3 2026 earnings release was scheduled for October 28, 2026, while Ball Corporation's was set for November 3, 2026 ^[1]^[2]. Consequently, their Q3 2026 inventory levels and specific Q4 demand guidance were unavailable as of the specified date ^[1]^[2]. In contrast, General Motors' Q3 2026 sales presentation reported approximately 568,000 vehicles in quarter-end inventory, indicating the company was on track to finish 2026 with 50-60 days of supply ^[3]. This presentation also noted resilient Q3 industry demand, with the SAAR in the upper-16-million range ^[3].

Limited Q3 data provides only a mildly supportive outlook. Given that Ford and Ball's official Q3 2026 releases were still pending and GM's material was a sales presentation rather than a full earnings report, a comprehensive cross-company Q3 2026 earnings comparison cannot yet be made ^[1]^[3]^[2]. The directional read-through for Q4 aluminum demand is mildly supportive but not conclusive, as GM's stable vehicle demand and planned year-end pickup arrivals imply continued automotive consumption ^[3]. Ball's prior commentary from Q3 2025 results characterized packaging demand as resilient ^[4], but neither this nor GM's data establishes a broad Q4 aluminum restocking surge. For the prediction market, the evidence supports a base case of a firm, but sub-105-cent/lb, November Midwest premium ^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]. This conclusion is reached rather than an aggressive bullish one based on Q3 consumer inventories, primarily because the key Q3 2026 reports from Ford and Ball were unavailable, and GM's inventory, while substantial, was targeted toward a normal 50-60-day year-end supply ^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[3].

Sources (8)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of October 15, 2026, the Kalshi November 2026 Aluminum Midwest Premium market shows a high probability for a lower-bound outcome: 92 for at least 100 /lb, 14% for at least 105 /lb, and 3% for at least 110 /lb ^[1]. Third-party aggregators price approximately 76% for at least 80 /lb, 50% for at least 85 /lb, and 52% for at least 90 /lb ^[2]^[3]^[4]. These represent threshold probabilities. A September 24, 2026 Q4 procurement forecast indicates the U.S. Midwest premium at approximately 25.4–27.7 /lb (converted from $560–610 per metric ton), which conflicts materially with prediction market thresholds near 80–110 /lb; direct comparison requires checking units, benchmark definitions, or source reliability ^[5]. The base-case directional assessment for November is bullish-to-firm, with downside risk concentrated in policy-driven import flow improvements ^[6]^[7]^[8].

Dominant bullish catalysts include structural U.S. import dependence: the U.S. has only four operating primary aluminum smelters and requires roughly 4 million tons of imports annually, with Canada supplying about 3 million tons ^[6]. ING expects tariff changes linked to future investment to have minimal near-term effect ^[7]. Alcoa and CRU state that even lower Canadian tariffs may only modestly reduce the Midwest premium unless broader tariff relief covers the remaining supply deficit ^[6]^[9]. Additional bullish drivers include constrained Middle Eastern supply, Alcoa's order book described as almost completely sold out for the rest of 2026, sharply reduced U.S. inventories, and the persistence of 50% tariffs on most countries ^[6]^[7]^[10]. USGS reports 2026 tariff increases and only limited domestic capacity additions, implying no rapid supply cure before November ^[11].

Main bearish catalysts encompass broader tariff reductions or waivers for suppliers such as Canada, Japan, South Korea, Europe, or Persian Gulf producers ^[6]^[7]^[9]. A meaningful return of Canadian flows to the U.S., stronger domestic smelter output, demand destruction, or a resolution of Middle East-related supply disruptions could also lower the premium ^[6]^[7]^[9]. Sources indicate these actions generally would not return the premium to pre-tariff levels unless they address most of the U.S. deficit ^[6]^[7]^[9]. The market resolves on the November average, not an intramonth touch, with settlement on November 30, 2026 ^[1]^[8]. Key timeline events include October tariff/trade announcements, November shipment and inventory data, and any Middle East or smelter developments ^[6]^[7]^[8]. A November 2025 CRU survey indicated two-thirds of respondents expected the premium to rise over the following month, citing can-sheet capacity growth, tighter can scrap, the Novelis Oswego restart timeline, and transportation-sector supply tightness ^[8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: December 07, 2026
Closes: November 30, 2026

Sources (11)

Aluminum Midwest premium average in November 2026

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: 110¢ or above

📉 October 15, 2026: 88.0pp drop

Outcome: 100¢ or above

📉 October 14, 2026: 81.0pp drop

Outcome: 90¢ or above

📉 October 13, 2026: 81.0pp drop

Outcome: 80¢ or above

📉 October 11, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Outcome: 85¢ or above

📉 October 06, 2026: 86.0pp drop

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. What potential changes to US aluminum import tariffs, particularly for European or Middle Eastern suppliers, could materialize before the November 2026 settlement?

7. How do Q4 2026 forecasts for the Aluminum Midwest Premium from leading commodity analysts like CRU, Wells Fargo, and SMM align with the current market-implied range?

8. How do the landed costs and available volumes of aluminum from Canadian producers like Rio Tinto and Alcoa compare to those from Middle Eastern suppliers for Q4 2026 US delivery?

9. What is the precise calculation methodology and data release schedule for the CME Group's Aluminum Midwest Premium (AUP) November 2026 contract settlement?

10. What do Q3 2026 earnings reports from major aluminum consumers like Ford, General Motors, and Ball Corporation indicate about their inventory levels and expected Q4 demand?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Related News

Aluminum Premium Bets Align With CME Futures, Pricing In Sub-110¢ Settlement

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: 110¢ or above

📉 October 15, 2026: 88.0pp drop

Outcome: 100¢ or above

📉 October 14, 2026: 81.0pp drop

Outcome: 90¢ or above

📉 October 13, 2026: 81.0pp drop

Outcome: 80¢ or above

📉 October 11, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Outcome: 85¢ or above

📉 October 06, 2026: 86.0pp drop

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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Aluminum Premium Bets Align With CME Futures, Pricing In Sub-110¢ Settlement

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company