Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for NYC subway ridership reaching 3.72 million before 2027, at 65.0% model vs 100.0% market, suggesting structural shifts like hybrid work may prevent ridership from reaching pre-pandemic levels. Official MTA planning assumptions and McKinsey projections indicate ridership may plateau around 77-80% of 2019 levels through at least 2027.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has seen a modest but consistent decline in perceived probability. The price opened at 62.0% and fell to 57.0% in early July 2026, where it has since stabilized. This 57.0% level is the market's current support, while the opening price of 62.0% acts as initial resistance. The primary price move was a single drop between July 2nd and July 8th.
The negative price action appears to reflect recent data showing the persistent gap in NYC subway ridership. As of July 2026, ridership remains 20-25% below its pre-pandemic average. While ridership showed year-over-year growth in 2025, reaching up to 85% of 2019 levels, the market seems to be pricing in the difficulty of closing the final deficit before the 2027 resolution date. This suggests that the slow pace of the final recovery phase is weighing on sentiment.
Overall market conviction is low. Total traded volume is just five contracts, indicating extremely thin liquidity and minimal participation. While the price trend reflects growing pessimism, the lack of significant volume suggests this view is not held with strong conviction or by a wide range of market participants. The current price of 57.0% still implies a "YES" resolution is more likely than not, but the trend has moved against that outcome since trading began.
  • Since last update (~24h): Confidence score increased by +1.0pp, now at 9.0.
  • The model now provides probabilities for the resolved 3.72M and 3.95M ridership outcomes.
  • NYC subway ridership likely will not reach pre-pandemic average before 2027.
  • Forecasts project plateauing around 77-80% of 2019 levels from hybrid work.
  • MTA's plan relies on continued growth, with fare hikes and congestion pricing.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
4.19 million 56.0% 27.1% Market higher by 28.9pp
4.65 million 11.0% 3.9% Market higher by 7.1pp

Current Context

NYC subway ridership trails pre-COVID levels, showing partial recovery. As of July 2026, ridership is approximately 20-25% below its pre-pandemic average [1][2][3]. In 2025, ridership reached 76.5% to 85% of 2019 levels, with continued year-over-year growth [4][5]. MTA planning assumptions, informed by McKinsey projections, anticipate ridership will establish a new baseline around 80% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2026 [2].
MTA forecasts indicate ridership remains below pre-COVID levels through 2027. The MTA's November 2024 Financial Plan projects continued year-over-year growth but explicitly states that ridership will remain significantly below 2019 levels through at least 2027 [2][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Recovery is expected to reach approximately 78% of pre-COVID systemwide levels by fiscal year 2027 [6][7][8][9][10][11]. Before the pandemic, a typical weekday subway served about 5.5 million riders, with a broader "normal weekday" measure at 7.6 million daily riders [6][7][8][9][10][11]. To manage structural budget gaps due to lower ridership, the MTA has implemented recurring fare and toll increases, including a 4% yield increase in January 2026 and another scheduled for March 2027 [12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1MTA 01.2026 Financial Performance Reportmta.info
  2. 2Financial Outlook for the Metropolitan Transportation Authorityosc.ny.gov
  3. 3NYC subway ridership still trail pre-COVID numbersnypost.com
  4. 4Ridership Returns: Mapping Post-Congestion Pricing Ridership Trends - PCACpcac.org
  5. 5Governor Hochul Highlights Record-Breaking Year of Performance and Ridership for the MTA in 2025 | Governor Kathy Hochul | New York Stategovernor.ny.gov
  6. 6seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  7. 7www.cnbc.comOctagon Agentcnbc.com
  8. 8www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  9. 9www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  10. 10seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  11. 11www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  12. 12MTA 2026 Preliminary Budget - July Financial Plan 2026-2029 Volume 1mta.info

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "Yes" if NYC subway ridership reaches a seven-day average of at least 4.19 million riders before January 1, 2027; otherwise, it resolves "No" by the January 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST deadline. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority verifies the outcome, and insider trading by employees of source agencies or those with material non-public information is prohibited.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
4.19 million $0.63 $0.44 56%
4.65 million $0.11 $0.91 11%

Market Discussion

Official forecasts indicate NYC subway ridership is not expected to return to pre-COVID (2019) levels, with projections suggesting it will plateau at 77–80% through 2029 [1][2][3]. Key structural barriers, such as widespread remote/hybrid work impacting weekday commuting and persistent concerns over service reliability and safety, are preventing a full recovery [4][5][6]. Consequently, the MTA's budget planning is now calibrated to a 'new normal' ridership baseline rather than historical peaks, despite some growth driven by congestion pricing [3][4][7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1Subway Recovery Tracker | Office of the New York State...osc.ny.gov
  2. 2Financial Outlook for the Metropolitan Transportation Authorityosc.ny.gov
  3. 3DiNapoli: MTA Fiscal Outlook Continues To Improve but Uncertainties Tied to Federal Actions Cloud Future | Office of the New York State Comptrollerosc.ny.gov
  4. 4Ridership Returns: Mapping Post-Congestion Pricing Ridership Trends - PCACpcac.org
  5. 5Metropolitanmta.info
  6. 6NYC subway ridership hits new milestone, but still far short of pre-pandemic levels - Gothamistgothamist.com
  7. 7MTA 2026 Preliminary Budget - July Financial Plan 2026-2029 Volume 1mta.info

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 75 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score39High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score75Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
82Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
47Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

2 contracts · worst first

4.65 million26
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

4.19 million48
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
61Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

2 contracts · worst first

4.19 million60
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 2d

4.65 million81
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 4d

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

4.19 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
4.65 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
39High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 47 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 2.5c slippage (~4% of a 56.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 3.3c slippage (~6% of a 56.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

4.19 million48Market scoreLiquidity48Move quality60Rule clarity100
Why 48
Liquidity
48 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
60 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 2d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
4.65 million26Market scoreLiquidity26Move quality81Rule clarity100
Why 26
Liquidity
26 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
81 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 4d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 1, 2026

5. How do weekend and off-peak ridership trends in late 2026 compare with the MTA's overall recovery model?

Weekend Ridership (2025)89% of 2019 levels [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Weekday Peak Ridership (2025)74% of 2019 levels [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Total Subway Ridership (2025)Approximately 85% of pre-pandemic levels [7][8][9]
Weekend and off-peak subway ridership show a significantly faster recovery. As of mid-2026, weekend subway ridership has outpaced weekday ridership in its recovery, with this difference growing to approximately 15 percentage points by the end of 2025 [7][10]. In 2025, weekend subway ridership reached an average of 89% of its 2019 levels, while weekday peak ridership averaged 74% of 2019 levels [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This indicates that weekend and off-peak travel segments are comparatively ahead in the overall recovery trajectory. In response to these trends, the MTA has strategically shifted service enhancements, prioritizing increased frequency during off-peak and weekend hours to acknowledge the stronger rebound in discretionary travel compared to traditional weekday commuting [11][12].
Despite stronger off-peak recovery, specific late-2026 data is unavailable. While evidence confirms off-peak ridership has recovered more quickly than weekday peak, there is a lack of specific numerical data for late-2026 off-peak ridership levels or a precise MTA recovery model target for this period. Consequently, based on the provided information, it is not possible to determine if off-peak ridership will return to its pre-Covid average before 2027 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Overall, total subway ridership reached approximately 85% of pre-pandemic levels in 2025, with forecasts indicating that full pre-Covid parity will not occur before 2027 [7][8][9]. Prediction markets and the MTA's financial projections suggest that ridership levels are expected to remain in the 80% range throughout 2026-2027 [13][14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  2. 2www.cnbc.comOctagon Agentcnbc.com
  3. 3www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  4. 4www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  5. 5seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  6. 6www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  7. 7MTA Weekend Ridership Trendsosc.ny.gov
  8. 8Subway Recovery Tracker | Office of the New York State Comptrollerosc.ny.gov
  9. 9Governor Hochul Highlights Record-Breaking Year of Performance and Ridership for the MTA in 2025 | Governor Kathy Hochul | New York Stategovernor.ny.gov
  10. 10MTA post-pandemic weekend ridership outpaces weekday usebrooklyneagle.com
  11. 11MTA Announces Next Phase of Service Increases to Bmta.info
  12. 122025 in Datamta.info
  13. 13MTA 01.2026 Financial Performance Reportmta.info
  14. 14MTA Sees Record Auto Traffic While Ridership Lags Behindamny.com

6. How might the MTA's fare hikes implemented in 2026 and planned for 2027 affect ridership growth elasticity?

Scheduled Fare Increases4% for January 2026 and March 2027 [1][2][3]
Ridership Recovery (late 2025)Approximately 85% of pre-pandemic levels [4]
Pre-COVID Ridership by Jan 2027Unlikely to be met [5][6][7]
The MTA plans 4% fare increases in 2026 and 2027. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) has scheduled a 4% fare yield increase for January 2026, followed by another in March 2027, aimed at addressing budget shortfalls and maintaining service levels [1][2][3]. Historically, New York City transit ridership has demonstrated low price elasticity, indicating that ridership declines following fare adjustments have typically been more moderate than initially projected [8]. However, it is noted that this sensitivity can vary based on the specific fare medium and prevailing economic circumstances [8].
Ridership recovery has plateaued, impacting future growth expectations. Despite historical low price elasticity, New York City subway ridership recovery has leveled off. By late 2025, ridership had recovered to approximately 85% of pre-pandemic levels [4]. The MTA views reaching 100% of 2019 ridership as a long-term objective rather than an immediate goal for 2026 [9]. Prediction markets also suggest that NYC subway ridership is unlikely to reach its pre-COVID seven-day average before January 1, 2027 [5][6][7]. The planned fare hikes are thus being introduced within this environment of plateaued ridership recovery [4][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1MTA 2026 Preliminary Budget - July Financial Plan 2026-2029 Volume 1mta.info
  2. 2MTA 2026 Preliminary Budget - July Financial Plan 2026-2029 Volume 2mta.info
  3. 32026 Fare & Toll Increasesmta.info
  4. 4Subway Recovery Tracker | Office of the New York State Comptrollerosc.ny.gov
  5. 5Will NYC subway ridership reach its pre-Covid average?kalshi.com
  6. 6Will NYC subway ridership reach its pre-Covid average?coinbase.com
  7. 7Will NYC subway ridership reach its pre-Covid average?app.acetrader.com
  8. 8Impact of Transit Fare Increase on Ridership and Revenue: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, New York Cityjournals.sagepub.com
  9. 9Governor Hochul Highlights Record-Breaking Year of Performance and Ridership for the MTA in 2025 | Governor Kathy Hochul | New York Stategovernor.ny.gov

7. How does the MTA's ridership recovery trajectory in 2026 compare to that of other major public transit systems like the London Underground and Tokyo Metro?

NYC Subway Ridership Recovery (Early 2026)75-80% of 2019 levels [1][2]
MTA 2026 Ridership Forecast75% of 2019 levels [3]
Tokyo Metro Ridership FY2026Approximately 2.57 billion (below FY2019 2.77 billion) [4][5]
A definitive comparison of the MTA's ridership recovery trajectory in 2026 to that of the London Underground and Tokyo Metro is challenging due to insufficient complete data. The available evidence lacks crucial actual 2026 ridership series and pre-COVID baseline values for these systems, which are essential for a comprehensive comparison of recovery trajectories [6][7][8][9][10][11]. As of early 2026, NYC subway ridership recovery has either plateaued or shown slight volatility, consistently remaining below 2019 pre-COVID levels, with total system-wide paid ridership typically within the 75-80% range of pre-pandemic levels [1][2]. Financial projections for the MTA forecast total ridership will only reach 75% of 2019 levels by the end of 2026, indicating that a full return to pre-COVID averages is unlikely before 2027 [3].
London Underground and Tokyo Metro also show incomplete ridership recovery as of early 2026. London Underground ridership has experienced a slower-than-expected recovery; recent quarterly reports for 2025/26 indicate that passenger journeys remained below both budget and 2019 levels, influenced by evolving commuting patterns and broader economic pressures [12]. For Tokyo Metro, ridership for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, was approximately 2.57 billion, still below the FY2019 pre-pandemic level of about 2.77 billion. Its recovery has been steady but moderate, marked by structural shifts in demand for both commuting and non-commuting travel [4][5].
Sources (12)
  1. 1MTA 01.2026 Financial Performance Reportmta.info
  2. 2Financial and Ridership Reports – February 2026mta.info
  3. 3Financial Outlook for the Metropolitan Transportation Authorityosc.ny.gov
  4. 4[Tokyo Metro 9023.T] Financial Results Briefing Materials for the Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2026finance.biggo.com
  5. 5Tokyo Metro Co., Ltd.tokyometro.jp
  6. 6seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  7. 7www.cnbc.comOctagon Agentcnbc.com
  8. 8www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  9. 9www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  10. 10seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  11. 11www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  12. 12Transport for London Quarterly performance report - Quarter 4 2025/26content.tfl.gov.uk

8. What are the most reliable public data sources for tracking NYC subway turnstile entries on a daily or weekly basis through 2026?

MTA Subway Hourly Ridership start2025 [1][2][3]
Third-party dashboard updatesWeekly [1][2][3]
Data tracking suitabilityThrough 2026 [1][2][3]
The most reliable public data for NYC subway turnstiles comes from the MTA. The MTA's Open Data portal and specific third-party dashboards are considered the most reliable public sources for tracking NYC subway turnstile entries on a daily or weekly basis through 2026 [1][2][3]. These platforms offer the data necessary for comprehensive analysis.
MTA's Open Data portal directly provides extensive daily ridership information. The MTA's Open Data portal (data.ny.gov) offers crucial datasets. These include 'MTA Subway Hourly Ridership,' which began in 2025, and historical 'Turnstile Usage Data' [1][2][3]. This portal serves as the primary official source for the raw data.
Third-party dashboards provide convenient aggregated, visualized MTA data. Complementing the official portal, third-party dashboards, such as Todd Schneider's (toddwschneider.com/dashboards/nyc-subway-turnstiles/), aggregate and visualize this MTA data [1][2][3]. These dashboards often offer weekly updates, presenting the information in easily digestible formats.
Sources (3)
  1. 1MTA Subway Turnstile Usage Data: 2022 | State of New Yorkdata.ny.gov
  2. 2MTA Subway Hourly Ridership: Beginning 2025 | State of New Yorkdata.ny.gov
  3. 3MTA Open Data Programmta.info

9. What key assumptions underpin the MTA and McKinsey's forecast that subway ridership will plateau at 80% of pre-pandemic levels through 2027?

Forecasted Ridership PlateauApproximately 80% of pre-pandemic levels through 2027 [1][2]
Low Case Ridership73% by 2026 [1][3]
Full Ridership ReturnNot until 2035 or later [1][3]
MTA and McKinsey project subway ridership to plateau at 80% through 2027. The MTA and McKinsey predict that New York City subway ridership will stabilize at approximately 80% of its pre-pandemic levels, a trend anticipated to continue through 2027 [1][2]. This projection is based on several key assumptions, including the ongoing prevalence of permanent remote and hybrid work models [1][2]. It also incorporates shifts in commuting habits, such as an increased preference for walking, biking, or driving, alongside persistent concerns regarding transit safety and crime [1][2].
Additional variables like non-work trips and congestion pricing influence forecasts. McKinsey's analysis further considers other influencing variables, including changes in the volume of non-work-related trips [1]. The potential impact of congestion pricing on mode shifts and travelers opting for alternative transportation options were also factored in [1]. The MTA has additionally acknowledged "low case" scenarios where hybrid workers commute fewer days, which could result in even lower ridership levels, such as 73% by 2026 [1][3]. Some officials have suggested that a full return to pre-pandemic ridership volumes may not occur until 2035 or beyond [1][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Runaway train: MTA ‘fiscal cliff’ arriving a year sooner because of lower ridership return, officials say | amNewYorkamny.com
  2. 2Walking and Biking to the Office May Be Good for New Yorkers. It’s Not So Great for the MTA.gothamweekly.com
  3. 3New York Public Transit Will Need Until 2035 To Match Pre-COVID Levels | Matzav.commatzav.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The MTA's 2026-2029 financial plan hinges on several catalysts and risks. Key drivers include the impact of congestion pricing, scheduled fare and toll increases in March 2027 and 2029, ongoing fare evasion mitigation, and the evolution of hybrid work patterns [1][2][3]. The plan relies on continued ridership growth and expects fare box revenue increases from planned adjustments to balance outyear budget gaps [1][2].
NYC subway paid ridership, as of early 2026, hovers near 75-79% of pre-pandemic 2019 levels, demonstrating stable growth supported by factors such as congestion pricing [4][1][2]. While recent monthly totals in 2025 show substantial usage, a precise trend test for the last six months is not available, and data does not prove that ridership has yet reached the pre-Covid weekday average of about 5.5 million [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. The MTA anticipates reaching 77% of pre-pandemic ridership by 2028-2029, indicating that pre-COVID levels are not projected in the near term [5][6][4][7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 01, 2027
  • Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (13)
  1. 1MTA 2026 Preliminary Budget - July Financial Plan 2026-2029 Volume 1mta.info
  2. 2July 2025 Financial Plan Presentationmta.info
  3. 3Metropolitanmta.info
  4. 4MTA 01.2026 Financial Performance Reportmta.info
  5. 5DiNapoli: MTA Fiscal Outlook Continues To Improve but Uncertainties Tied to Federal Actions Cloud Future | Office of the New York State Comptrollerosc.ny.gov
  6. 6Subway Recovery Tracker | Office of the New York State Comptrollerosc.ny.gov
  7. 7Congestion pricing: NYC subways saw millions more riders during Manhattan toll program’s first year, transit group finds | amNewYorkamny.com
  8. 8seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  9. 9www.cnbc.comOctagon Agentcnbc.com
  10. 10www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  11. 11www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com
  12. 12seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  13. 13www.youtube.comOctagon Agentyoutube.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXSUBWAY-27-3.95: YES (Jul 08, 2026)
  • KXSUBWAY-27-3.72: YES (May 20, 2026)